This joint World Bank/OECD Development Centre publication analyzes the potential gains from trade liberalisation and from different GATT agreements over the next decade. Full liberalisation would add over END 450 billion to global income, of which over half would accrue to the currently most protectionist industrialized countries. Partial liberalisation, such as that envisaged in the Uruguay Round, would add over END 130 billion to the incomes of OECD countries and over END 80 billion to developing and formerly centrally planned economies. Whatever the degree of liberalization, all countries stand to gain in the long term even if some suffer in the short term. Poor, food-importing countries could, however, suffer short-term losses. The authors call for special measures to deal with their immediate needs and argue that industrialized countries cold make a substantial contribution to development by adhering to their Punte del Este commitment to "halt and reverse protectionism and to remove distortions from trade."
Ian Goldin is a professor at the University of Oxford in England. He took up his most recent position as director of Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford, in September 2006. He is the Oxford University Professor of Globalisation and Development, and holds a professorial fellowship at Balliol College, Oxford.