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Quarterly Essay #76
Red Flag: Waking Up to China’s Challenge
China has become a key nation for Australia’s future – for our security, economy and identity. But what are China’s intentions and strategy when it comes to Australia?
In this gripping account, Peter Hartcher shows that we are entering an era of undeclared contestation, whether for hearts and minds, mineral and agricultural resources, media outlets or sea lanes. Reactions include panic, xenophobia and all-the-way-with-the-USA – but the challenge now is to think hard about the national interest and respond with wisdom to a changed world.
This urgent, authoritative essay blends reporting and analysis in trademark Hartcher style, and covers the local scene as well as the larger geopolitical picture.
In this gripping account, Peter Hartcher shows that we are entering an era of undeclared contestation, whether for hearts and minds, mineral and agricultural resources, media outlets or sea lanes. Reactions include panic, xenophobia and all-the-way-with-the-USA – but the challenge now is to think hard about the national interest and respond with wisdom to a changed world.
This urgent, authoritative essay blends reporting and analysis in trademark Hartcher style, and covers the local scene as well as the larger geopolitical picture.
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Published January 1, 2019
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About the author
Peter Hartcher
17 books8 followersPeter Hartcher is the political and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald. His books include Bubble Man, The Sweet Spot and To the Bitter End. His first Quarterly Essay, Bipolar Nation, was published in 2007.
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August 19, 2021I liked the second half but I thought the first half lacked nuance and too obviously wrote to an agenda without considering all sides to an argument. And it was like glaringly obvious? Kept waiting for it to address some of the flaws in it's own logic and it never did. Don't know who I would recommend this to? Felt like it was lacking depth for people who study pols (me) but I wouldn't recommend it for people who aren't because of it being so one-sided
December 23, 2022
In 2017 Hugh White published a Quarterly Essay titled, “Without America” where he argued that Australia will have to choose between America and China. In 2018 Clive Hamilton published is polemic account of China/Australia relationship “Silent Invasion.” Much has happened in the sphere of our relationship with China in the recent past. Also Morrison came out during his recent visit to the US with a resounding statement of the importance and strength of Australia/US ties.
Hartcher’s essay takes the reader through a tour of incidents that have occurred between Australia and China, especially in the period since Xi Jingping became leader (And now leader for life).
China’s growth since it joined the World Trade Organisation has been astronomical. 850 million people have been lifted out of absolute poverty. I have never read an accurate account of why this happened. Hartcher writes that China used more cement between 2011 and 2013 than the US used in the entire twentieth century. Was it capitalism or communist controlled centrally managed policies that achieved this outcome?
Over the last decade there have been numerous situations that have been interpreted as China gaining too much say and power in Australia.
I remember stories with a subtle racist overtone about how the Chinese were sending up real estate prices in major cities to the determent of hard-working Aussie battlers. The government tax policies and cashed up baby boomers were ignored.
Then there was criticism of China buying too many Australian businesses. Darwin Harbour was one purchase that upset the Americans.
The shrill media claim that the Chinese are taking milk out of Australian baby’s mouth with their high volume purchase of milk powder. Australia has a long and illustrious history of demonising the Chinese and some of these incidents reflect this history.
More serious concerns have been raised in the field of technology and internet services. In August 2018 the Federal Government banned Chinese-owned tech giant Huawei from taking part in the rollout of 5G mobile infrastructure over national security concerns. We were the first western country to do that.
Over the last few years there have been incidents where rich Chinese businessmen have tried to buy political favours by making large donations to political parties. Sam Dastyari’s promising career came to a crashing end after his involvement in Chinese donations and financial support offered to him.
In the very recent past there have been accusations that the Chinese had tried to get a “Manchurian candidate” elected to parliament. Some stories seem somewhat exaggerated but with ASIO coming out publicly warning of Chinese behaviour towards our political system Australians should be concerned and the government must put in place procedures to deal with these corruptions of our political system.
Hartcher writes at length about China’s use of its economic power to punish those countries it deems to have acted inappropriately to them. This has been met with various successes and failures.
What we must not forget is that China is behaving just like all great powers, past and present. How many countries has America imposed sanctions on, as one Singaporean academic asked. How many countries has China bombed since WW2? USA has bombed 30. Some countries more than once!
China does not have a monopoly on invasive aggressive behaviour towards smaller nations. America is probably the only country that China hasn’t tried to bully. Finally, look at a world map and list the number of countries that are either allies or friends of the United States of America. Then ask how many allies does China have? Two I think, North Korea & Pakistan. So, Australia is not alone with having a difficult and at times testing relationship with this super-power that is itself coming to grips with it's new position on the world stage.
An important area that Hartcher failed to mention was foreign aid. Hartcher accuses the Gillard government of a “blunder” in its reduction in defence spending, yet he never mentions the drastic cuts in aid made by the LNP government. Australia now spends 0.23% of gross national income on aid, $4.044billion. While 1.9% (soon to be 2%) $38.7billion on defence spending. Meanwhile China spends $146billion (and increasing sharply.) We could never match China in a military conflict.
Morrison has seen the stupidity, both morally and strategically, with his recent announcements of aid to some South Pacific nations. It will be through aid and support that Australia will increase its influence in our region and challenge China’s power and impact.
As a nation we need to diversify our economy as much as possible so that we are not too reliant on one industry/export. We need to be strong when we deal with all foreign powers, we need an enlarged and supported diplomatic presence in Asia. We need to foster close ties with all Asian nations. We need to not allow populist jingoism to hamper our decisions in relation to China. We need to be friendly with all nations, especially our allies and as Hartcher’s final sentence explains, "Whenever Australia is asked to choose between China and America, the ultimate answer must be that we choose Australia."
My concern is that we do not have a media or political leadership which is intelligent and savvy enough to deal with China in a manner that does not make us subservient but maintains our economic interests in the relationship.
Hartcher’s essay takes the reader through a tour of incidents that have occurred between Australia and China, especially in the period since Xi Jingping became leader (And now leader for life).
China’s growth since it joined the World Trade Organisation has been astronomical. 850 million people have been lifted out of absolute poverty. I have never read an accurate account of why this happened. Hartcher writes that China used more cement between 2011 and 2013 than the US used in the entire twentieth century. Was it capitalism or communist controlled centrally managed policies that achieved this outcome?
Over the last decade there have been numerous situations that have been interpreted as China gaining too much say and power in Australia.
I remember stories with a subtle racist overtone about how the Chinese were sending up real estate prices in major cities to the determent of hard-working Aussie battlers. The government tax policies and cashed up baby boomers were ignored.
Then there was criticism of China buying too many Australian businesses. Darwin Harbour was one purchase that upset the Americans.
The shrill media claim that the Chinese are taking milk out of Australian baby’s mouth with their high volume purchase of milk powder. Australia has a long and illustrious history of demonising the Chinese and some of these incidents reflect this history.
More serious concerns have been raised in the field of technology and internet services. In August 2018 the Federal Government banned Chinese-owned tech giant Huawei from taking part in the rollout of 5G mobile infrastructure over national security concerns. We were the first western country to do that.
Over the last few years there have been incidents where rich Chinese businessmen have tried to buy political favours by making large donations to political parties. Sam Dastyari’s promising career came to a crashing end after his involvement in Chinese donations and financial support offered to him.
In the very recent past there have been accusations that the Chinese had tried to get a “Manchurian candidate” elected to parliament. Some stories seem somewhat exaggerated but with ASIO coming out publicly warning of Chinese behaviour towards our political system Australians should be concerned and the government must put in place procedures to deal with these corruptions of our political system.
Hartcher writes at length about China’s use of its economic power to punish those countries it deems to have acted inappropriately to them. This has been met with various successes and failures.
What we must not forget is that China is behaving just like all great powers, past and present. How many countries has America imposed sanctions on, as one Singaporean academic asked. How many countries has China bombed since WW2? USA has bombed 30. Some countries more than once!
China does not have a monopoly on invasive aggressive behaviour towards smaller nations. America is probably the only country that China hasn’t tried to bully. Finally, look at a world map and list the number of countries that are either allies or friends of the United States of America. Then ask how many allies does China have? Two I think, North Korea & Pakistan. So, Australia is not alone with having a difficult and at times testing relationship with this super-power that is itself coming to grips with it's new position on the world stage.
An important area that Hartcher failed to mention was foreign aid. Hartcher accuses the Gillard government of a “blunder” in its reduction in defence spending, yet he never mentions the drastic cuts in aid made by the LNP government. Australia now spends 0.23% of gross national income on aid, $4.044billion. While 1.9% (soon to be 2%) $38.7billion on defence spending. Meanwhile China spends $146billion (and increasing sharply.) We could never match China in a military conflict.
Morrison has seen the stupidity, both morally and strategically, with his recent announcements of aid to some South Pacific nations. It will be through aid and support that Australia will increase its influence in our region and challenge China’s power and impact.
As a nation we need to diversify our economy as much as possible so that we are not too reliant on one industry/export. We need to be strong when we deal with all foreign powers, we need an enlarged and supported diplomatic presence in Asia. We need to foster close ties with all Asian nations. We need to not allow populist jingoism to hamper our decisions in relation to China. We need to be friendly with all nations, especially our allies and as Hartcher’s final sentence explains, "Whenever Australia is asked to choose between China and America, the ultimate answer must be that we choose Australia."
My concern is that we do not have a media or political leadership which is intelligent and savvy enough to deal with China in a manner that does not make us subservient but maintains our economic interests in the relationship.
December 3, 2019
Nothing original here. Take 1950s Cold War rhetoric and change USSR to China - same old mix of half truths and chest thumping.
December 1, 2019
Very well argued essay on China’s influence in Australia and what should be done about it.
January 1, 2020
2.5: an interesting and accessible read that i wouldn't've chosen for myself but nonetheless a good read.
February 1, 2020
An eye-opening essay showing Australia’s reliance on China for economic growth and the danger of foreign covert influences.
January 3, 2024
Reading Peter Hartcher's "Quarterly Essay 76: Red Flag: Waking Up to China's Challenge" in early 2024, five years after its publication and before the dramatic events of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent freezing of diplomatic ties between Beijing and Canberra, provides a fascinating retrospective lens. Hartcher's essay, with its insights into the pre-pandemic geopolitical landscape, serves as a prescient forewarning of the tensions that were to escalate between Australia and China. The nuanced understanding of China's strategic ambitions and the potential conflicts it hinted at have, in many ways, materialised and evolved over the intervening years.
Looking back at 2024, it's clear how the foundational issues Hartcher identified have been underscored and exacerbated by subsequent events. The essay's relevance is only heightened when considered alongside Kevin Rudd's "The Avoidable War," which advocates for a nuanced approach to the US-China geostrategic competition. Rudd's vision for a multipolar world, where engaging with Beijing is seen through the lens of managed competition and win-win scenarios, offers a stark contrast to the adversarial path that unfolded.
Rudd's framework for understanding China's "10 concentric rings of interest" complements Hartcher's earlier assessments by offering a structured, strategic approach to navigating the complex relationship. The concept of avoiding Thucydides' trap by seeking mutual benefits and cooperation rather than conflict is particularly poignant given the diplomatic and trade tensions that have since arisen.
As we reflect from the vantage point of 2024, it's evident that both Hartcher's early warnings and Rudd's advocacy for a strategic, cooperative approach remain critically important. Together, they provide a layered understanding of the challenges and opportunities of managing relations with China. Hartcher's essay sets the stage for recognising the depth of the challenge, while Rudd's book offers a path forward, advocating for a world where geostrategic competition is managed with foresight, aiming for stability and mutual benefit. This combined perspective is essential for policymakers and individuals alike as they navigate the complex and ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
Looking back at 2024, it's clear how the foundational issues Hartcher identified have been underscored and exacerbated by subsequent events. The essay's relevance is only heightened when considered alongside Kevin Rudd's "The Avoidable War," which advocates for a nuanced approach to the US-China geostrategic competition. Rudd's vision for a multipolar world, where engaging with Beijing is seen through the lens of managed competition and win-win scenarios, offers a stark contrast to the adversarial path that unfolded.
Rudd's framework for understanding China's "10 concentric rings of interest" complements Hartcher's earlier assessments by offering a structured, strategic approach to navigating the complex relationship. The concept of avoiding Thucydides' trap by seeking mutual benefits and cooperation rather than conflict is particularly poignant given the diplomatic and trade tensions that have since arisen.
As we reflect from the vantage point of 2024, it's evident that both Hartcher's early warnings and Rudd's advocacy for a strategic, cooperative approach remain critically important. Together, they provide a layered understanding of the challenges and opportunities of managing relations with China. Hartcher's essay sets the stage for recognising the depth of the challenge, while Rudd's book offers a path forward, advocating for a world where geostrategic competition is managed with foresight, aiming for stability and mutual benefit. This combined perspective is essential for policymakers and individuals alike as they navigate the complex and ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
October 14, 2020
Listened to on audible. Interesting. To be honest I zoned out through some of it because the narrator (author) was very quiet and wasn't very inviting to listen to.
I found the hybrid war theory interesting, how China will use technology like social media and apps to fight new wars, if it comes to war that is.
Great insightful journalism. Dramatic, yet needed. A warning for Australia. The main message: If Australia had to pick a side, side with Australia.
Reflections.
I am still reading Che's biography, its a mammoth but very enjoyable. I have Theatre exams coming up, and just finished my IRS, so it has been a busy and stressful week. Getting by, nonetheless.
Ireland's birthday on the 12th (Monday), was very excited and she had a great day I believe. On 10th (Saturday) had our one year anniversary. Went out for tea at Rupert and Hound. I had a vegetable curry with prawns. Yum.
Dedicate this book to my grade 12 history teacher Mark C, who suddenly dropped teaching our class due to health reasons. I hope he is doing well.
I found the hybrid war theory interesting, how China will use technology like social media and apps to fight new wars, if it comes to war that is.
Great insightful journalism. Dramatic, yet needed. A warning for Australia. The main message: If Australia had to pick a side, side with Australia.
Reflections.
I am still reading Che's biography, its a mammoth but very enjoyable. I have Theatre exams coming up, and just finished my IRS, so it has been a busy and stressful week. Getting by, nonetheless.
Ireland's birthday on the 12th (Monday), was very excited and she had a great day I believe. On 10th (Saturday) had our one year anniversary. Went out for tea at Rupert and Hound. I had a vegetable curry with prawns. Yum.
Dedicate this book to my grade 12 history teacher Mark C, who suddenly dropped teaching our class due to health reasons. I hope he is doing well.
October 20, 2020
A bit disappointing. Rambling and poorly structured
A long (too long) rambling essay that would have benefitted from being better structured with chapters and sub-sections.
The obvious message is that we kowtowed too long to China but are now pushing back to protect Aussie values at the peril of the economic relations with China.
Caught between a predatory China and an increasingly unreliable USA under the erratic presidency of Trump, his closing sentence that 'we must choose Australia' is glib. Australia must work towards a coalition of like-minded rational responsible governments like Canada, Germany, Japan to protect our freedoms and our economies.
A long (too long) rambling essay that would have benefitted from being better structured with chapters and sub-sections.
The obvious message is that we kowtowed too long to China but are now pushing back to protect Aussie values at the peril of the economic relations with China.
Caught between a predatory China and an increasingly unreliable USA under the erratic presidency of Trump, his closing sentence that 'we must choose Australia' is glib. Australia must work towards a coalition of like-minded rational responsible governments like Canada, Germany, Japan to protect our freedoms and our economies.
January 14, 2021
wow... I knew buying an aussie politician was cheap, but had no idea just how cheap.
The idea that every single ethnic Chinese somehow 'belongs' to them is genuinely terrifying. And yes. we should be limiting payments from foreign entities to Australian political parties, we should be careful with contracts [Victoria signed on to the Belt and Rail plan??? And it's a secret contract? SCREAMING.]
I am concerned that with the way PM Morrison left foreign students out to dry during Covid, and changed the guidelines of job support three times to specifically exclude universities, that they will turn to China's willing hands for funds.
Lots to think about here.
4 stars
The idea that every single ethnic Chinese somehow 'belongs' to them is genuinely terrifying. And yes. we should be limiting payments from foreign entities to Australian political parties, we should be careful with contracts [Victoria signed on to the Belt and Rail plan??? And it's a secret contract? SCREAMING.]
I am concerned that with the way PM Morrison left foreign students out to dry during Covid, and changed the guidelines of job support three times to specifically exclude universities, that they will turn to China's willing hands for funds.
Lots to think about here.
4 stars
October 31, 2023
An excellent clear outline of the dangers of a revisionist China to the West and Australia.Although I already understood the main idea this account provides an accumulation of detail to prove beyond doubt the intentions and actions of communist China under President Xi and ends by outlining what Australia can and must do to resist Chinese pressure.Essential reading for all politicians,present and future,and all Australians who value our freedoms and lifestyle.Will Australia hear,listen and heed this warning?Perhaps only if 60 Minutes takes it up.
January 6, 2024
Peter Hartcher's "Waking up to China's Challenge" is a compelling and urgent essay that blends astute reporting with insightful analysis. Hartcher presents a clear-eyed view of China's increasing influence over various sectors, from hearts and minds to mineral and agricultural resources. The essay is a call to action for Australia to think critically about its national interest and respond wisely to a changing world. Hartcher's work is authoritative, shedding new light on Beijing's plans and actions, and offering a path forward for Australia's engagement with China
May 4, 2020
Required reading for all Australian voters
As we have come to expect, Peter Hartcher gets to the point crisply. Our relationship with China is, in many respects more important than any other diplomatic, trade or cultural relationship with any other country. If we get this wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic for future generations.
As we have come to expect, Peter Hartcher gets to the point crisply. Our relationship with China is, in many respects more important than any other diplomatic, trade or cultural relationship with any other country. If we get this wrong, the consequences could be catastrophic for future generations.
December 9, 2020
I was really impressed by the analysis of China's policies under Chairman Xi. How China instead of being interested in action with in its borders, is interested in acting outside its immediate area of control, and hence, enlarging its control over much more territory . The methods used are among others buying political influence and branding someone as being anti-Chin and therefore racist.
April 15, 2020
A timely warning against a very worrying nation, especially now with the world turned upside down with a virus born in China. I found this unsettling entry in the Quarterly Essay refreshingly critical towards something too many people are scared of speaking against.
December 28, 2023
A great look at the less obvious signs of China's growth and intent to influence when compare to those essays written by Hugh White. I also think its a better look at what Australia can do internally to manage the increasing challenge of state interference.
December 28, 2019
A common sense and compact opinion on the risks associated with doing business with China etc.
May 24, 2020
A brilliant summary of the China situation- essential read
September 16, 2020
highly insightful.
October 5, 2020
Incredibly eye opening and interesting.
October 5, 2020
Very interesting article. The economic numbers were amazing! Letters will be interesting next issue!
January 31, 2021
Very good analysis of the threats to Australia of the rise of China on the world stage (politically and economically).
February 13, 2021
Scary stuff
April 29, 2021
This was a well written and argued essay. I was (and am still) not that savvy regarding international politics and relations, so I enjoyed learning a little about that.
May 4, 2021
Recommended as an introduction to those bemused by China’s foreign relations stance. Most helpful.
August 22, 2021
Well worth a listen / read. Available on audible.
September 18, 2021
Despite feeling reasonably informed, Hartcher opened my eyes to a new perspective. Clear, precise and a refreshing new approach to China.
September 3, 2024
This is good analysis of our shortcomings and our biases.
March 27, 2025
Good read. Not much I haven't heard before, and given that it was written in 2019, a lot is out of date. But decent in of itself.
February 19, 2021
Knocked down my rating several stars after reading the correspondence and his really rude and dismissive response (but only to the correspondents who happened to be women and/or Chinese Australian at least by my first look).
Displaying 1 - 30 of 39 reviews