We Should Have Seen It Coming: From Reagan to Trump--A Front-Row Seat to a Political Revolution

by Gerald F. Seib

The executive Washington editor of The Wall Street Journal chronicles the astonishing rise, climax, and decline of the conservative movement, from the election of Ronald Reagan to the Republican Party's takeover by Donald Trump—with a new introduction covering the 2020 election and the future of the GOP “Ably captures the most consequential American political developments in half a century.” —Peggy Noonan In 1980, President-Elect Ronald Reagan ushered in conservatism as the most powerful political force in America. For four decades, New Deal liberalism had been the country’s dominant motif, creating such popular programs as Social Security and Medicare, but it had become creaky in the face of soaring inflation, high unemployment, and a growing sense that the United States was no longer the dominant force on the world stage. Reagan's efforts to reshape the government with tax cuts, deregulation, increased military spending, and a more conservative social policy faltered at first. But the economy roared back, and the Reagan revolution was on.In We Should Have Seen It Coming, veteran journalist Gerald F. Seib shows how this conservative movement came to dominate national politics, then began to evolve into the populist movement that Donald Trump rode to power. Conservative institutions including the Heritage Foundation, the National Rifle Association, Americans for Tax Reform, Rush Limbaugh and Fox News gave the conservative movement a support system, paving the way for Newt Gingrich's Contract with America and George W. Bush's compassionate conservatism. But we also see multiple warning signs, many overlooked or misread, that a populist revolution was brewing. Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, Sarah Palin, and the Tea Party—all were precursors of the Trump takeover.With behind-the-scenes anecdotes, Seib explains how Trump capitalized on that populist movement to victory in 2016, then began breaking from conservative orthodoxy once in office. He shows how Trump altered Republican relations with the business world, shattered conservative precepts on trade and immigration and challenged America’s long-standing alliances. This scintillating work of journalism brings new insight to the most important political story of our time.

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, History, Government, Presidents, American History, Americana

304 pages, Hardcover

First published August 25, 2020

Reviews

[CoachJim · Rating 5 out of 5]

When Reagan launched his general-election campaign in 1980, he did so with a speech in front of the Statute of Liberty in which he praised generations of immigrants for the work they did in building the United States: “They brought with them courage, ambition, and the values of family, neighborhood, work, peace, and freedom. We all came from different lands, but we share the same values, the same dream.” When Trump launched his campaign, he did it a few miles away, in his eponymous Fifth Avenue skyscraper, with a speech in which he called Mexican immigrants rapists and drug dealers.
(Page xi)

Following the 2016 election of Donald Trump as president I and many, many others wondered how did this happen. This book is an attempt to explain that. The author himself asks the question “What is going on in America that makes the rise of Trump possible—perhaps even inevitable?” (page 243) He is a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, where he has worked for 40 years, and so he is a front line observer to many of the events described here. In many cases these are personal experiences. Although there is a conservative bias to this history I did not feel it got in the way of presenting his analysis.

This is an interesting history covering many of the major political characters of the era. But the focus here is on the change from the classical, traditional conservatism of Ronald Reagan to the populist, nationalistic presidency of Donald Trump. The signs were visible thirty years ago with the populist presidential campaigns of Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot, along with the anti-intellectual, anti-establishment vice presidential campaigns of Sarah Palin and the Tea Party revolt.

Just as important was the fall of the Soviet Union, which with the “New World Order” of George H. W. Bush brought a new global economy. This saw the mass migration of manufacturing jobs overseas. The manufacturing sector is especially important for the economic health and well-being of America. It provides particularly well-paying, stable employment—especially for people with less formal educations. Populists wanted to attack corporate malfeasance and corporate welfare. A company liquidates itself, the executives get bonuses and the rank-and-file workers get laid off.

Then with the 2008 financial crisis Americans were losing their homes to ballooning payments from mortgages that banks had sold them. Americans saw a government that had done nothing to save manufacturing jobs now bailing out banks. The Federal Reserve had to guarantee the bad loans of Bear Stearns because it was too big to fail. There was grassroots anger at the political and financial establishments and frustration over the impact of conservative policies on the working-class.

Income inequality had grown steadily since the Reagan tax cuts. And now Americans did not want to hear that the government programs on which they and their families relied like Social Security and Medicare needed to be cut. American voters now seemed more united by what they were against than what they were for.

There were also cultural reasons. Some Americans saw immigration as changing the face of America. This along with abortion and gay rights added to the dissatisfaction with government. Trump allowed his followers to “indulge in a form of tribal hatred.” Important as economics might have been in opening the way for Trump, alienation and a deep cultural divide in the country appeared to have been an even bigger force. Donald Trump was there to pick up on this populist uprising.

Trump embodied a certain style of resentments and grievances that angered Americans. He was a “wrecking ball” that would lay waste to the establishment.

This review is being posted on Tuesday, June 13, 2023, the day on which Donald Trump was arraigned on 37 federal charges including Espionage.

LOCK HIM UP!

[Allie H · Rating 3 out of 5]

⭐️3.5: It definitely a choice to both start and end this book by talking about Ted Cruz. The part about how Trump didn’t want to cut government spending and programs like Medicare and social security didn’t age well. But further proved every problem in this country is because of Ronald Reagan.

[Sue · Rating 4 out of 5]

Excellent introduction that explains how the ideology of the Republican has shifted over the past 40 years. It happened gradually and includes things we tend to forget about: the discontent (or flat out anger) of George HW Bush not being a Reagan clone (I often think at how different the direction of the nation would have gone if Bush had won the primaries, as well as the impact it would have had on my own political trajectory), Newt Gringrich's power greed at the cost of everything else, and even how Obama's arrogance played a role. The book also discusses how some good things Trump could have done, did do, and wanted to do were changed because his constant need to please the base.

It's a short book and easy to read. I highly recommend it to those who think everything just changed in 2016. This was 40 years in the making.

[Mel · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have many friends who describe themselves as Reagan Republicans. Over the years I always found we might disagree but we could talk and discussion did not end a friendship. The new era of Trump Republicans is not as civil. How did we get here? This book traces the conservative Republican movement from Reagan to Trump. It answers the question in its own way. You may not agree with what it says but it offers a path worth reviewing and considering. I have a perspective I did not have before on how we reached the present. That is reason to read the book.

[T.R. Preston · Rating 4 out of 5]

I learned a good deal here, but I can't help but be disappointed at how little Trump was actually covered in this book. Trump's presidency was only detailed in the last 60 or so pages. I wanted that orange imbecile to at least take up half.

I still recommend this read to any American who has the slightest interest in maintaining democracy within the most powerful country in the world and the seat of western civilization as a whole. Just don't expect Orange Boy until near the end.

[Kim Bakos · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book was very interesting. As someone who was only 12 when Reagan took office, there much much of the history in this book that was quite fuzzy for me. It was a very succinct history of what has been happening in this country and in the GOP over the past 40 years and how Reagan's party is so different today.
The one thing I found frustrating is the very little focus on the racism that is such a part of the Trump part of the GOP :( There was a brief mention of how some people think that is a part of the movement in another direction, but it was basically "poo-pooed" away because someone denies that as part of the story. I truly feel that the return to nationalism and the racism of the Trump movement was in part a reaction to Obama's presidency and the fear that control of the US is being lost by your basic WASP contingency.

[Cammy Nguyen · Rating 4 out of 5]

It is a well-researched and well-written overview of the evolution of the Republican Party since Reagan. I see it as one of the more sensible, level-headed books about the rise of Trump, argued from the point of view of political science and history without resorting to personal attacks - and for all these strengths it also implies that the future of the US is more dire than most Democrats/liberals want to believe. The divide is systemic, embodied by one character, which means it will not be easily reconciled when that character is gone. There's one big hole in the book though: the discussion on the deep-rooted racism that has plagued America since its first days was not sufficient.

[Todd Davidson · Rating 5 out of 5]

Seib takes an insider account of the changing Republican party. He plots the decisions Republican leaders made and the political forces pushing them. He highlights the early warning signs of a populist uprising. It is an entertaining account of Republican politics since the 1980s. He is both charitable and critical to Republican leaders, a very good balance. It reads well when paired with the more data heavy and progressive "Why we're polarized" by Ezra Klein.

Rock Chalk Jayhawk.

[J. · Rating 3 out of 5]

I thought the book offered a lot to think about, but as a little-left-of-center liberal I thought it had a little too much of a Republican and conservative slant it. But my biggest disappointment was an apparent absence of awareness of the element of racism in the new Republican Party.

[Mike · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good unbiased history of U.S. politics since Reagan

[Cherry · Rating 3 out of 5]

Nothing really new here. Yes, you should have seen it coming, and this doesn't really give any new insights.

[David V. · Rating 4 out of 5]

Received as an ARC from a Goodreads giveaway. Started 9-27-21. Finished 10-4-21. A well-written history of the Republican Party from Reagan through #45 (He who shall not be named.) It's a frightening and sad story of how they (you know who THEY are) have ruined our country and its Constitution. The worst LIARS in the world and NO REMORSE. I'm sure their many supporters will be pissed at my comments----save your breath yelling at me. I don't want to hear it--I've heard enough of your BS in the past years to last me the rest of my life. You can't draw me into an intellectual argument---I don't fight unarmed people.

[Samuel Perry Cook · Rating 5 out of 5]

History

This is a well thought out and meticulously footnoted history of the politics of my adult life. Anyone who want to have an informed opinion of this era must read it.

[Laura · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well summarized, well written, and I learned some things about the conservative movement that I hadn't known before. I think personally the author is kinder than he should be to the figures he covers (though since he is a little-c conservative writer, I get why), and I think he downplays the role of bigotry in the modern right even as he recognizes that it's been useful to the party in gaining power. He is more critical of Trump and Trumpism, but more even keeled than most. Full disclosure though, I was fuming half the time I read it. But it's good to read from another perspective and after 40 years of actually being in Washington while all this was happening, I think the author achieved what he intended in drawing the line between Reagan and Trump.

[Frank · Rating 3 out of 5]

I like Gerald Seib and I read his columns regularly, but I completed reading this book feeling unfulfilled. This is certainly a light-touch history of conservatism and not terribly revealing at that. There surely are better choices, many perhaps, that review the history of conservatism.

[Matt Gets Lit · Rating 5 out of 5]

I've been posting my book reviews in the order I read them this year, but this one felt too prescient to wait. I finished it just last weekend.

After the recent election, I found myself reflecting on how we got here. Trump's sweeping second win and the divisiveness in the country reminded me of Reagan's 1984 landslide victory, where he won 49 of 50 states. Reagan is a polarizing figure—celebrated by some as one of the best Presidents and criticized by others as one of the worst. I picked up "We Should Have Seen It Coming" to learn more about how each presidency and decade influenced the next. I wanted to see the historical dominoes in action and understand how the Republican Party transformed over time. What I learned is that Trump's rise didn't happen in isolation. The populist movement didn't come out of nowhere—it was a slow simmer, building for decades before reaching a boiling point.

Gerald Seib delivers a compelling narrative, tracing the GOP's transformation over four decades. The book opens with Reagan's rise, highlighting his ability to unite economic, national security, and religious conservatives into what Seib calls the "three-legged stool" of the Republican Party. Reagan's optimism and coalition-building set the tone for a new era of conservatism. His pragmatism is encapsulated in his famous quote: "I'd rather get 80 percent of what I want than go over the cliff with my flags flying." But as the years progressed, this ethos of compromise was replaced by an "all or nothing" atmosphere, fueled in part by the Tea Party movement and a growing distrust of traditional political norms.

The book moves through George W. Bush's presidency, a period that signaled cracks forming in the GOP coalition. Seib details how Bush sensed the rise of populist sentiments even within his own party, noting a "trifecta of concerns: isolationism, nativism, and protectionism." These concerns, along with growing dissatisfaction over globalization and foreign conflicts, set the stage for the Republican Party to drift away from its Reagan-era roots. By the end of Bush's second term, the seeds of Trumpism were beginning to sprout.

Barack Obama's presidency accelerated this shift. The Tea Party's emergence during Obama's first term marked a sharp turn toward ideological purity and populism, rejecting Reagan's principle of compromise. By the time of Mitt Romney's candidacy in 2012, traditional conservatism was struggling to find its footing. Republicans were confident that Romney, a stand-up, dyed-in-the-wool conservative, would win the election. When he didn't, it prompted a reckoning within the GOP. Party leaders held conferences and strategy sessions to discuss how to better appeal to Hispanic voters. But just four years later, Trump's campaign took the party in the opposite direction, leaning heavily into hardline rhetoric, lambasting Mexican immigrants, and pledging mass deportations.

One of the most eye-opening sections of the book examines how Trumpism diverged from traditional Republican values, particularly on immigration. Seib writes: "Among other things, many of these new Trump stalwarts had limited appetites for traditional conservative principles. They didn't want to hear that the government programs on which they and their families relied—Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, disability payments—had to be cut in order to chase some ideologue's dream of a balanced budget." Conservative thinkers had historically viewed immigration as a boon to economic growth, but many Trump supporters saw immigrants as "interlopers who took jobs, drove down wages, and diluted their view of what America should be." Above all, they wanted to be "citizens of America, not citizens of the world." This stark shift from pro-immigration policies to nationalist rhetoric encapsulates how much the party changed under Trump's influence.

Seib also examines the fundamental shift in the Republican voter base. Trump's supporters were more aligned with "Main Street" than "Wall Street," distrusting traditional conservative policies like free trade and limited government. Instead, they rallied around Trump's promises to upend the establishment and protect their cultural values. This marked a dramatic departure from Reagan's pro-market conservatism, underscoring the growing tension between populism and traditional Republican ideology.

Ultimately, "We Should Have Seen It Coming" is an insightful, accessible exploration of how the Republican Party's priorities and strategies have evolved—and unraveled—over the last 40 years. Seib underscores the importance of understanding history not as a series of isolated events but as a continuous thread of actions, reactions, and unintended consequences. While I started this book seeking parallels between Reagan and Trump, I walked away with a deeper understanding of their vast differences and the slow, steady rise of a populist movement that reshaped American politics. It's the first library book I've read that I want to purchase for my own collection, so I can continue to reference it.

[Matthew · Rating 4 out of 5]

The longtime Washington reporter/editor for the Wall Street Journal details the transition of the GOP over the last 40 years: the rise of Reagan conservatism, Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America, the Tea Party, through to the transition to Trump populism.

After the GOP's uniting force of anti-communism crumbled alongside the Berlin Wall, immigration and economics began driving the change in the party. The swapped party positions on immigration are most shocking: in 1984 the GOP debated opening borders for all people in North America -- which sounds like something AOC might pen, whereas the 1996 DNC platform on securing borders sounds like something Trump would have written.

With globalization, driven largely by free-trade republicans, who failed to manage the inevitable casualties of capitalism that would become the seeds of modern discontent.

Even on the right, some like Oren Cass envision a post-Trump world where the invisible hand of the market is replaced by the guiding hand of government: subsidized research to improve domestic manufacturing, more government tuition assistance for "industrial" college students who major in engineering, even changing the tax code (to zero, if need be) to favor US based manufacturing.

A very fascinating book!

[Skip Auld · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent chronicle of the conservative movement growing out of Reagan's rise to power beginning as California Governor in the 1960s. Good analysis of Trump’s genesis and governance around three key anti-establishment, anti-Republican policies: a. End the endless wars. b. End free trade. c. End illegal immigration. All these policies had an aim to protect American workers and reverse the job losses and death of American industry. Both Democrats and Republicans over the past 40 years have supported military spending and wars, full-on free trade policies, and wude-open immigration. The book was completed in early 2020 & released in August.

[James Biser · Rating 5 out of 5]

The author, Gerald Seib, is a Wall Street Journal writer and researcher who has studied the world of politics for the last century. In this book, he focuses on the Republican Party as it has existed for the most recent history. He begins with the presidency of Ronald Regan in the 1980’s and proceeds through the decades of the twenty-first century. Rather than focus on statistics and geography, Seib tells the tales of the leaders who have been the face of the Republican Party. He mentions characters like Ross Perot, and it becomes more logical how Donald Trump used the party name to create himself as President of the United States. The book is educational.

[Deepanshu Aggarwal · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book does a wonderful job tracing the trajectory of the Grand Old Party in the US - the Republican party. The two bookends are Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump.

What I liked about the book is its strong and simple setting of the context and storyline, all the more important for a non-US reader. I was helped, to a small extent, in understanding the book, by my interest and regular following of US politics. Largely, Jerry's lucid writing and experience of being a front seat observer of US politics, for more than 4 decades, did the job.

[John · Rating 4 out of 5]

My wife and I married a couple months prior to Reagan's election which made this an interesting review of the US politics of our years together. Triggers lots of memories of elections and headlines past-lots happened for sure. When you're in the midst of it, things sometimes do not make sense, so I appreciated Seib's interpretation of what was going on. Easy to see looking back, which is the point of the book. The book ends in 2020 before Biden. It asks if Trump was an aberration; now we know. Its a fairly quick read, well written as you'd expect.

[Miguel · Rating 3 out of 5]

A veteran political reporter (who was briefly detained and interrogated by the Iranians in the late 80’s) paints a birds eye view of the US political arc since Reagan leading to Trump. It’s pretty good, albeit it deals with each issue at a very high level. It lays a lot of the blame quite correctly at Gingrich’s feet and would be a good introduction to the topic for a young person who didn’t live through this buildup.

[Christian Gacon · Rating 5 out of 5]

Très bonne rétrospective de l'évolution du mouvement conservateur américain de la "révolution conservatrice" de Ronald Reagan à la "révolution populiste" de Donald Trump. Comme l'auteur l'indique, on aurait pu voir venir ce reniement mais je reste un peu sur ma faim quant à la conclusion et les perspectives sur ce qui pourrait suivre. Il est toujours plus facile de comprendre le passé que de prévoir le futur.

[Svetlana Tsalik · Rating 4 out of 5]

I’ve read many books and articles to try to understand how we arrived at this precipice in our democracy and in the evolution of the Republican Party. This one helped me understand how policies like attacking labor unions while globalizing trade, pursued by conservative presidents, created the economic conditions that nurtured the angry blue collar white men—former Reagan Democrats—that form the xenophobic populist Trump base of support.

[Joann · Rating 5 out of 5]

A fascinating historical perspective of the Conservative movement and its relationship to our current political climate. I especially appreciated the impartiality with which Seib reported and also that the writing was very accessible. Highly recommend this book for anyone wondering what just happened in our political arena.

[Maria · Rating 3 out of 5]

Interesting take on how Republicans missed the rise of Donald Trump. I wish Seibert had focused more on the main drivers of populism. Be does towards the end of the book, but it seemed like a cursory analysis. I did learn quite a bit about modern conservativism and its shortfalls. Overall an engaging read missing some depth.

[Bill · Rating 3 out of 5]

A very readable history of the Road to Trump, so to speak. It is always good to read different perspectives -- this Wall Street editor provides a decent overview, but it is good to read critically as well. What is he leaving out? (I might say -- for example -- that he does not explain how Gingrich found the money to get his start)

[Casey · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very good overview of the conservative "political revolution" in the U.S. starting with Reagon, by a Wall Street Journal reporter who had a front-row seat (as the title states) to many of the incidents he reports on. I lived through these times but most of the details were new to me.

Well-written and recommended!

[Cristine · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thoughtful review of the Regan through Trump years and how we got to the current situation in our country. Having lived through all of this, the mostly first hand account of helped me appreciate the key events that have lead to this moment in time. Seib lays out the evolution of US political landscape and makes a good case for his title.

[Bill · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent timeline of mainly Republican politics, from the rise of Ronald Reagan to the era of Donald Trump. Enjoyed reading all the events that I have lived through, down now to the eve of the 2020 election. Very enlightening and a great review. Well done!