One of the best books I've read this year! Cockburn provides a great mix of historical perspective, geopolitical insight and unparalleled on the ground coverage. The book is structured as a series of correspondences from Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria between 1996 and 2017 (though the '96 entry is an outlier, most of the coverage is in the wake of 9/11). Despite how sprawling the scope of this book is, there is an effective narrative arc to it all. Cockburn's approach is to offer historical perspective given the present situation at the start of each chapter, but then let his reporting speak for itself.
To someone unfamiliar with modern warfare his reporting appears prophetic, as he seems to grasp the nature of the conflicts he is covering well before the American press and political corps does. For example, he immediately grasped that the immediate fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was a hollow victory that would unleash a protracted sectarian struggle. To his credit, he doesn't appear very self-impressed with this prediction, as it's grounded in historical analogy and his previous reporting.
What's striking then, is when even he is caught off guard. The latter portion of the book is devoted to the rapid rise and fall of the Islamic State. While one can view the Islamic State as an especially vicious mutation of Wahhabi fundamentalism, there is a sense that in the wake of Iraq being destabilized (and subsequently the Arab Spring) the ensuing power vacuum has unleashed anarchy on the entire Middle East. As Cockburn makes clear, this often takes the form of local warlords using militias to take power along sectarian lines. Which makes it all the more striking when a well organized, ambitious, and highly ideological power emerges from those turf wars. It's striking how Cockburn concludes the book: "The demons released by this age of chaos and war in the Middle East have become an unstoppable force". Even when a demonic force is defeated that demon will simply find a new host.
Cockburn has a great sense of analogy, and one that keeps recurring is "Somalianisation" - the idea that in the wake of a failed state the expected outcome is the death of nationalism as a motivating ideology, the reassertion of sectarian identity, and the formation of militias that are strong enough to control territory but not strong enough to assert power at the national level.
At the national level it's a form of stalemate, but for the people living through it the result is brutal sectarian purges and repression. Cockburn devotes most of this book to talking to the people living through it and sharing their stories. That's what forms his understanding. One of the dumbest bigotries that Americans had going into Iraq was that Iraqis were somehow politically simplistic, and just needed some paternalistic coaching to reach the level of a western-style democracy. What Cockburn makes clear is that living under a brutal dictator or the whims of a local warlord forces one to have keen political instincts, because such instincts are the basis of survival.
Finally, I couldn't help but feel lament from reading this. Lament for the future of conflict journalism and how we come to understand the real world impacts that American foreign policy can have. One of the latter narratives to emerge in this book is that "coverage" of foreign conflicts has largely come to entail relying on local video footage. There's nothing inherently wrong with video footage, but by nature it is lacking context and perspective. Moreover, it creates incentives to engage in warfare with an eye towards spectacle. This can go in a couple directions. For the Islamic State, this meant publishing acts of horrific brutality with an eye towards increasing recruitment and sowing fear among their rivals. For militias looking to garner Western support, this means using shocking video footage of enemy atrocities to stir up a narrative of "humanitarian intervention". My lament is that with these competing approaches, there may no longer be a place for the Patrick Cockburns of the world. I hope I'm wrong about that.