Contest for the Indo-Pacific: Why China Won't Map the Future

by Rory Medcalf

The Indo-Pacific is both a place and an idea. It is the region central to global prosperity and security. It is also a metaphor for collective action. If diplomacy fails, it will be the theatre of the first general war since 1945. But if its future can be secured, the Indo-Pacific will flourish as a shared space, the centre of gravity in a connected world.

What we call different parts of the world – Asia, Europe, the Middle East – seems innocuous. But the name of a region is totemic: a mental map that guides the decisions of leaders and the story of international order, war and peace. In recent years, the label ‘Indo-Pacific’ has gained wide use, including among the leaders of the United States, India, Japan, Australia, Indonesia and France. But what does it really mean?

Written by a recognised expert and regional policy insider, Contest for the Indo-Pacific is the definitive guide to tensions in the region. It deftly weaves together history, geopolitics, cartography, military strategy, economics, games and propaganda to address a vital question: how can China’s dominance be prevented without war?

Genres: Politics, China, Nonfiction, History, International Relations

320 pages, Paperback

Published March 3, 2020

Reviews

[Hunter Marston · Rating 4 out of 5]

Rory Medcalf is basically Mr. Indo-Pacific. He began advocating for use of the term to refer to the wider Asia-Pacific at least back in 2013 or 2014 before it had gained popular traction or prominent usage by Washington and other governments around the world including Canberra and Southeast Asian capitals. As Rory sees it, the Indo-Pacific is inherently a multipolar region, and no single power can dominate it. This has not only been born out by history, as Rory shows, but present day events, namely the rise of China and emerging US-China competition, will confirm it as well. Medcalf provides a rich overview of regional geopolitics and economic connectivity in this book and pushes against the collective wisdom that US-China bipolar rivalry will come to define the region and its balance of power in the 21st century. A welcome and timely addition to the debate.

[Adam Lines · Rating 5 out of 5]

Insightful look into the Indo-Pacific regions outlook, this is required reading for those looking to better understand the interaction between the region's middle and large powers and how not only Australia, but other middle powers, can help map the future.

[Andrew · Rating 4 out of 5]

There are no earth-shattering insights in this book, but because of the staggering number of bad takes on China, the Quad and the Indo-Pacific that seem to be in general circulation in Australia, its calm analysis and careful reasoning are very refreshing.

I could have done without quite so much historical background, but it's not a particularly lengthy book overall, so not a huge problem.

[Nishad Sanzagiri · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great book - I wrote a review for this, published in the academic journal 'International Affairs': https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaa086.

[Nabila Ayu · Rating 4 out of 5]

Rory Medcalf’s Contest for the Indo-Pacific is a timely and articulate attempt to reframe the strategic geography of our era. Arguing for the Indo-Pacific as not just a cartographic convenience but as the defining theatre of 21st-century power politics, Medcalf makes a compelling case for why this region—spanning the Indian and Pacific Oceans—should be understood as a coherent, interconnected strategic system. His vision is ambitious, and his credentials—having moved in senior diplomatic and national security circles—lend the book a certain authority.

The result is a well-organised and lucid work. Medcalf is at his strongest when he’s explaining how geography, economics, and military strategy intersect in ways that transcend traditional regional divisions. He also offers thoughtful insights into the behaviour of key actors—particularly China—and the counterbalancing responses emerging across the region.

Yet for all its polish, Contest for the Indo-Pacific is oddly unsatisfying in parts. Given Medcalf’s privileged access to national security circles, one can’t help but expect something more revelatory—more insight, perhaps, into the behind-the-scenes thinking that shapes policy in Canberra, Washington, or New Delhi. Instead, much of the book feels like a careful synthesis of already-public material, presented with fluency but without the sharpness or novelty that might have elevated it to something more distinctive.

This is not to say the book is without merit—it is a clear and credible guide to a complex strategic environment, and for readers new to the subject, it offers a strong foundation. But for those hoping that Medcalf’s proximity to power might yield fresh angles or deeper disclosures, Contest for the Indo-Pacific may leave a sense of missed opportunity.

In the end, it is a good book—good for what it is. But from a figure as well-placed and widely respected as Medcalf, one might have reasonably hoped for something just a little more daring, a little more incisive, and a little less careful.

[Ann · Rating 4 out of 5]

I heard Rory Metcalf in an interview on the radio, and wondered why I had not heard from him before. He writes an insightful argument on the position of primarily China, India, Japan, the US and Australia in the Indo Pacific region. I read the book to gain a perspective from a non political point of view of the situation and relevance of China and the US and the impact this could have on Australia's future. This book was published in January 2020 before the COVID pandemic and at a time when it was predicted that Trump could gain a second term. The title could be a bit misleading....as China mapping the future may not have an impact in the long term, but short term it is very likely that this will be so. In reading this book I take note of the importance of diplomacy in resolving differences and the unpredictability of China's or the CCP's political agenda. Metcalf predicts that it is likely that there will be conflict of some sort with Taiwan and Hong Kong, and it is how the rest of the Indo Pacific reacts to this possibility which could chart the region's future with China. Most insightful and it will be interesting to see future developments on this topic.

[Ned Cheston · Rating 4 out of 5]

Refreshingly broad in its scope and depth, this is another solid contribution to the China rise literature. Thought provoking final section that our politicians should consider given recent events:

“National conversations about security in an era of geopolitical struggle will demand high levels of political maturity. It is imperative not to reduce the discourse to partisan point scoring or, worse still, to the kind of paranoia that makes citizens of Chinese origin feel that they are being made to look like part of the problem”

[Nigel J · Rating 4 out of 5]

A really informative view of the Indo-Pacific region. The author is clearly an expert on the geo-political complexities of this region. He also has the writing skills to entertain the reader and make his revelations interesting. It will be interesting to see how events unfold given the context of this book.

[Mohammed Hasan · Rating 5 out of 5]

As borat would say 'is bery mice'. In all seriousness it's a great read, a bit slow and academic at the start but it's still enjoyable and hugely insightful. My general anti-sino stance felt very bolstered after reading it.

[Dale · Rating 5 out of 5]

I finished this book in one big bite. Could not put it down as I think it captures the current INDOPACOM strategic and operational environment. I will be recommending this book to officers stationing in the region.

[B Suarez · Rating 4 out of 5]

A good insight into the region and the power dynamics. Provides some possibilities for the future but it’s one of those things that we’ll have to get to the future before we can see how these things hold up

[Lauren · Rating 5 out of 5]

very insightful book about indo-pacific region. Telling by the clear history line and accurately observation on international relationships. Really worth to read it.

[Ayushman · Rating 4 out of 5]

While suffering from a presumptive subheading, this book while become a foundational text of Indo-Pacific scholarship.

[Lari · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good overall history of the region and its current tensions, though sometimes the timelines seemed a little unclear.

[Jay · Rating 4 out of 5]

An impeccably well-worded overview of the Indo-Pacific's strategic affairs with due attention paid to China and a number of other players seeking to balance the Chinese rise with a fair sense of scepticism, worry, and concern. Rory Medcalf does a fine job in this scholarly work and shares a good number of personal views and opinions that enrich the reader considerably. Recommended.