Le livre des décisions: De bourdier au Swot, 50 mdèles à appliquer pour mieux réfléchir

by Mikael Krogerus, Roman Tschäppeler

Excellent Book

Genres: Business, Nonfiction, Self Help, Psychology, Management, Personal Development, Leadership

175 pages, Hardcover

First published January 1, 2011

About the author

Mikael Krogerus is a freelance writer for German and Swiss newspapers and magazines. He was a staff writer with NZZ FOLIO, the supplement magazine of Switzerlands leading newspaper Neue Zürcher Zeitung, for five years. Prior to that he worked as a copywriter for various advertising agencies. He’s a graduate of the Kaospilot School. He’s a Finnish citizen and was brought up in Sweden and Germany.

Reviews

[Peter · Rating 4 out of 5]

Decision-making
The Decision Book is a reference book, not a book to read linearly from cover to cover. The book is structured into 4 main categories:

How to improve yourself (13 models)
How to understand yourself better (17 models)
How to understand others better (15 models)
How to improve others (5 models)

With 60% of the models geared towards looking internally at personal development and decision making, and the other 40% on how you work with others, it's really a book about YOU. In the title, the association with decision making and strategic thinking is the real essence of the book. Don't think about this book in terms of business models such as Ansoff Matrix, or PEST, or Porters 5 Forces etc.

Models are a great way of visualising ideas, organising, planning, and conveying thoughts and strategies to others. The models presented in this book are as good as the effort you are prepared to put in. Remember planning is everything the plan is nothing. If the development of knowledge is the continuous application of learning you will get an opportunity to use, and therefore become more knowledgeable with some of these models more than others.

The book offers a comprehensive list of models, some are very straightforward but some could have done with a bit more explanation and even an example. I also believe with a lot of personal/business model books it's important to reiterate that circumstances, external forces and the business itself are always changing and responding to personal and market needs. As a consequence, you should always return to your models and update the results from the previous time.

I really like approaches that visualise concepts or plans to help with realisation or explanation, so I would recommend this book as a useful resource in your library.

[Earl Gray · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book was one of those happy, unplanned discoveries. I was walking through the Annapolis, Maryland Barnes & Noble, looking for some fresh inspiration, and spotted it on the shelf, facing out. I was intrigued by both the title, the cover design, and the small, carry-it-easily-in-your-bag format.

As I flipped through it, it was easy to see that it was designed to surround you with as many - in this case, 50 - different models of processing and understanding decisions. Each of the 50 models is about two pages long, and almost all of them are graphically illustrated. The authors make the point that most of them are designed to be expressed by drawing them out live, alone or with others, instead of in a more formal way. There is also a section at the end of the book with two drawing lessons, to help the reader apply what's read into a graphic understanding.

The book is divided into four sections strategic, decision-making models:

1. How To Improve Yourself

2. How To Understand Yourself Better

3. How To Understand Others Better

4. How To Improve Others

I read it through in a day, and I am eager to begin sketching out the models, especially with others. This is one of those books that appears to be very simple, and as soon as you get even a bit into it, reveals itself to be profound in its applicational simplicity.

It is also remarkably refreshing because it is not dominated by American views on processing and modeling. Originally published in Europe in 2008, this is the first edition in English, 2011.

This paragraph at the end of the introduction will give you a sense of their approach:

"You can read this book in the American or European way. Americans tend towards a trial-and-error approach: they do something, fail, learn from this, acquire theories and try again. If this approach suits you, start at the beginning with 'How to improve yourself.' Europeans tend to begin by acquiring theories, then doing something. If they then fail, they analyse, improve and repeat the attempt. If this is more your style, begin with 'How to understand yourself better.'

This blended approach to decision making models - you will find it repeatedly throughout this book - is one that is remarkably freeing, because it is so often counter-intuitive. Quite a few wows in this one - highly recommended!

[Kaung Myat Han · Rating 2 out of 5]

I'm sure many of the models mentioned here are already familiar with students of business and management(like for instance SWOT analysis, team building stages etc). I believe some of the models are from the sociology/psychology field(like the Johari Window). There are even useless models(for me at least) like what you listen to and what you wear can describe what kind of person you are. I do believe that someone can deduce a character of a person(at least to some extent) by the kind of music he listens and the kind of clothes he wears. But this is not always true and it is just so broad and complicated to be pointed out on a single model with two horizontal and two vertical lines. Personally, I believe not all of the 50 models are useful. Some particularly intrigued me like the 80/20 principle. But there's only a short summary for each of this model. Not descriptive enough. But you get an overview. Then maybe you read more about the model you're interested in. This book serves as an introduction. Of course, you will need to carry out all the exercises and apply the models in real-life situations. (Again, some are just hypothetical). If not, you will forget what you've read quite fast.

[Abdurrahman AlQahtani · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very nice and concise reference book for all kinds of decision models needed in both your personal and professional life. While reading the book, I started to put sticky notes on the those models that I might use with my wife, kids, business ideas, team, and the overall organization i work for. I noticed that my sticky notes were on every page (or every other page). This gives me an indication that this is going to be on my reference shelf!
Although some models are easy to understand and ready to be used immediately, there are some that need external sources to clarify their usage and understanding.

[Annet · Rating 3 out of 5]

We all know the models used in business to stimulate structural thinking. SWOT, Maslow, etc. Some in the book are pretty funny, never knew there were models for taste in music and fashion. The music one was not right in my opinion. There are interesting models there about teamwork, The Black Swan I never know, interesting theory, Hersey-Blanchard by now well known, the role-playing model, interesting team exercise... I enjoyed just browsing through the collection, but you really need more info per model than just the few pages. So it is useful to discover a model you want to work with and then go for the full information package. The drawing lessons were spot on for me.
Will keep it close at hand.

[Negar Shahmoradi · Rating 2 out of 5]

کتاب تصمیم، متشکل از ۵۰ الگو برای تفکر راهبردیه که در‌ چهار بخش زیر قرار گرفتن:
چطور باعث پیشرفت خودم شوم؟
چطور خودم را بهتر درک کنم؟
چطور‌ باعث پیشرفت دیگران شویم؟
چطور دیگران را بهتر درک کنیم؟
الگوهایی که در این کتاب ارائه شدن الگوهایی بسیار معروف و کاربردی هستن. اما کتاب هر الگو رو فقط در یک صفحه کوچک و خیلی مختصر معرفی کرده و در صفحه بعد تصویری از نمودار اون الگو رو کشیده. برای اکثر الگوهای معرفی شده در این کتاب، این مقدار توضیح خیلی کمه و فقط در این حد هست که بگه این الگو اسمش اینه توسط فلان شخص ارائه شده و فلان کار رو انجام میده. بعضی از این الگو ها کتاب های مفصلی در موردشون نوشته شده و خب خلاصه سازی‌ اون توی یک صفحه، چیز جدیدی به شما یاد نمیده (مگر الگوهایی که همون توضیح کوتاه براشون کافیه، مثل الگوهای حافظه).
نحوه استفاده صحیح از این کتاب اینه که یا شما از قبل این الگو ها رو بلد باشین و صرفا به این کتاب رجوع کنید برای یادآوری بعضی از قسمت هاش یا شکل نمودارش که یادتون رفته، یا این که این کتاب رو مطالعه کنید و ببینید کدوم از این الگو ها به دردتون میخورن و خودتون شخصا برید و در مورد اون الگو، کتاب و مقاله تهیه کنید و مطالعه کنید تا کامل یاد بگیریدش. در اینجا نقد دیگه ای که به کتاب وارد میشه اینه که مترجم اسامی انگلیسی الگوها رو هیچ‌جا ننوشته و با توجه به این که خیلی از این الگو ها خیلی معروف نیستن یا منابع فارسی ندارن، پیدا کردن اطلاعات انگلیسی در موردشون کار سختی میشه.

[Razan Alghriafi · Rating 4 out of 5]

The change book has been authored to guide you as a reader. Whether you were a teacher, a professor, or a top manager.
You will be confronted by the same questions: How do I make the right decision? How can I motivate myself or my team? How can I change things? How can I work more efficiently?

So, it has appropriate content that suits with different types of people with different ages.

Moreover, everyone who has read this book may re-read it again and again. Due to its content, which is not just for reading, but for practice also. As the writers said in the introduction, the models do not give straight answers; but expect food for thought.

Simply, it helps you to learn how to think aloud on paper.

[Marijana · Rating 4 out of 5]

This business psychology book was given for free to participants during one congress meeting in Dubrovnik. On the back of the book it says it is a European bestseller. The book is very handsome and practical, small in size, with black covers and golden lettering, which attracted me to read it.
Each model's explanation takes only one page, with the second page showing a related picture or a diagram. Personally, I would prefer if there were fewer models, but explained in more detail. However, the book serves as an inspiration, and if you are interested in several models in particular, you can go find additional information about it. The book also functions as a workbook, which means you have space left at the end of the book to practice your sketching of the problem and subsequently to interpret the solution using methods described previously in the book. I recommend this book to anyone who prepares projects, gives presentations, and deals with people on a regular basis, as well as to those who like analyzing and organizing their life in detail.

[Zeynab · Rating 2 out of 5]

۲/۵ ستاره
در مجموع کتاب خوبی بود و ارزش یک بار خوندن رو داشت.
هر الگویی که می‌خواست بیان کنه رو خیلی خلاصه و با شکل و نمودار توضیح داده بود که این نقطه قوت کتابه. اما می‌شد الگوهای ثابتی رو در همین الگوها هم پیدا کرد که مشخصه‌هایش عوض شده، پس نمی‌شد گفت ۵۰ تا الگوی متفاوته. از طرفی بعضی الگوها هم برای همه کاربردی نبود و این نقطه ضعف کتاب بود.

[Chiara · Rating 4 out of 5]

Nothing new after my studies but nonetheless an interesting and very clear book. The approaches and models are explained in an easy way with good diagrams to provide input for discussions

[نادية أحمد · Rating 4 out of 5]

من أقوى الكتب التي تحفّز على التفكير الإبداعي
وتوسّع مدارك القارئ والمتلقي ليصبح موجّهاً
وقائداً في اتخاذ قراراته
حيث لخّص ميكائيل كروجيروس

٥٠ استراتيجية ضمن ١٧٨ صفحة مع الغلاف الداخلي
مقسمة على ٤ فصول أو أقسام

١- كيف أعرف نفسي أفضل
٢- كيف أحسّن من أدائي
٣- كيف أعرف الآخرين
٤- كيف أحسّن أداء الآخرين

ومن خلال ال ٥٠ استراتيجية يستطيع القارئ
أن يحدّد النموذج الذي يجد نفسه فيه أو قريب
لفهمه وقبوله
ثمّ يتخذ منها نهج لتحليل أموره
واتّباع الأنموذج منها ضمن تداعيات إحتياجاته
رغم أنني تعمقت في كتب سابقة
ودراستي في الدبلوم العالي
كانت متمحورة حول التفكير بشكل عام والتفكير الإبداعي
بشكل خاص
ولاحظت بأنّ كلها تصب في قالب الفائدة على
النطاق الضيّق الشخصي
أو النطاق الواسع العام

فعند اختيار استراتيجية للتفكير
تكون قد بدأت بتقنين استنزاف افكارك
ثمّ وقتك وجهدك
بل وتخرج بنتائج مميزة ومذهلة
.
من بعض الإستراتيجيات :
* نموذج تحليل ال swot
حيث نتناول أي موضوع من منظور شمولي
خاصة وأنه قائم على تحديد
- نقاط القوة strengths
ويقابلها الفرص opportunities
- نقاط الضعف weaknesses
ويقابلها التهديدات threats
.
عندما نحدد كل هذه النقاط تصبح
الأمور أكثر وضوحاً لإتخاذ قرار أكثر منطقية
و واقعية
لأنه قائم على تحليل الموضوع او الخيار
.
* النموذج المطاطي
قائم على خيارين للبدائل
- الشيء الممسك بك
- الشي الذي يدفعك

نفس مبدأ شد الحبل جهة تشدك وجهة تدفعك
وهنا تقرّر حسب المعطيات من خيارات أكثر جذب
.
* نموذج العائلة الشجرية
تعتمد هنا في علاقاتك مع الآخرين على تعدد
الأصول والفروع
ولا تجعلها مقتصرة على نقطة واحدة او فرع واحد
لأنه في حال قطعت علاقتك مع الفرع الواحد
انتهت علاقتك بمعارفك لأنّ نقطة الإتصال قُطعت
بينما العلاقات الشجرية المتعددة
تبقيك ضمن إطار أوسع مع معارفك ولن تفقد
الجميع في حال انتهت علاقتك مع فرع
.
وغيرها من النماذج الشّيقة التي تعزّز القدرة
على اتخاذ القرار
.
كتاب أنصح به لكل من يبحث عن التغيير
لا أعلم إن كان هنالك نسخة مترجمة للعربية
أم لا
والتي قرأتها هي النسخة الإنجليزية

لو كان لي تعقيب واحد على الكتاب فهو
الإختصار الشديد بشكل عام وعدم ذكر المصادر
لمن أراد الإستزادة

نادية أحمد

[شريف سالم · Rating 5 out of 5]

great Ideas simplified , very useful book for business and personal life

[Nelson Zagalo · Rating 4 out of 5]

Encontrei este livro por acaso na Fnac, não o comprei logo, mas como não o esqueci acabei por o mandar vir. A razão porque me interessou tanto foi a dupla de conceitos: modelos e decisões. Em relação ao primeiro, é o modo como prefiro trabalhar a minha investigação, estou sempre à procura de situações, casos e exemplos em busca de padrões que possam depois ser replicados e potencialmente escalados, no fundo criar modelos de conhecimento. Em relação ao segundo, as decisões estão intimamente relacionadas com os processos de escolha humanos que são no fundo a base do design de interação, servindo amplamente desde as aplicações e jogos às narrativas interativas. Ou seja, olhei para este livro como um compêndio de ideias de potencial aplicação imediata, embora tal depois não tenha propriamente acontecido, mais porque parte dos modelos, os mais interessantes, já os conhecia, e os restante se distanciavam bastante do meu domínio de aplicação. Não esquecer que é um livro mais dirigido aos domínios da gestão.

Os 50 modelos são categorizados em 4 modos: melhoria do próprio; compreender-se melhor; compreender os outros melhor; e melhoria dos outros. Um conjunto de modelos são sobejamente conhecidos, alguns já mesmo enquanto teoria, deixo uma lista desses: Análise SWOT; Flow; Pareto Principle (80/20); Modelo da Cauda Longa; Compasso Politico; Ciclo do Hype; Difusão; Feedback, Pirâmide Marlow; Dilema do Prisioneiro; Capital de Bourdieu. Os autores utilizam estes modelos, mas adaptam-nos em função dos seus contextos, nomeadamente da realidade Britânica ou de conteúdos mais mainstream.

[imagem]
Modelo do Capital Social de Bourdieu

Por vezes surgem algumas generalizações nesses modelos algo questionáveis, mas o interessante está nos modelos, no modo como podemos triar os conteúdos usando-os. Ou seja, olhem para os modelos como formas de aplicação aos problemas, e não como teorizações do real. Por outro lado, como o livro é pequeno não sobra muito espaço para discussão e menos ainda aprofundamento, por isso olhem para o livro como cardápio, para depois ir atrás.

[imagem]
Modelo do Feedback


Publicado no VI: https://virtual-illusion.blogspot.com...

[Hessah Alhashash · Rating 4 out of 5]

انقل لكم تعليق الاخ عصام الغامدي لانه هو ما اود ان اقوله بالضبط
الكتيب جميل و خفيف و مفيد ... تقدر ترجع له اكثر من مره يفيدك في اتخاذ القرارات و التعامل مع الامورو توضيحها
سعيدة لأنه في مكتبتي


"

Essam AlGhamdi
May 24, 2011
Essam AlGhamdi rated it 4 of 5 stars false
كُتيب ملئ بالعلاقات او المبادئ او القوانين المختلفه.
كل قانون او مبدا يتم شرحه في صفحه او صفحتين مع صوره القانون.

كتاب استراتيجي ، ممكن استعمال رسومات قوانينه في اجتماعاتك او شرح شي معين لشخص ما.

قواني إداريه ، تنميه شخصيه ، وحياتيه.

في اخر الكتاب ، فيه أوراق فاضيه ، يطلب منك الكاتب انك ترسم أفكارك الخاصه.

بكل بساطه حبيته، ويخليك تفكر وتتعلم وتعلم من حولك.

"

[Rob · Rating 4 out of 5]

Excellent strategic models and tools for most leadership environments. This is not really a "reading" book but a workbook that you can use to develop and learn strategic thinking, but you will still have to provide the thought.
I recommend some other business books (in the order below) that I have read BEFORE reading this one:
The Goal (Goldratt)
Not Just Luck (Goldratt)
Leading Change (Mann)
Creating a Lean Culture (Kotter)
Lean Thinking
Reengineering the Corporation (Hammer)

[Essam AlGhamdi · Rating 4 out of 5]

كُتيب ملئ بالعلاقات او المبادئ او القوانين المختلفه.
كل قانون او مبدا يتم شرحه في صفحه او صفحتين مع صوره القانون.

كتاب استراتيجي ، ممكن استعمال رسومات قوانينه في اجتماعاتك او شرح شي معين لشخص ما.

قواني إداريه ، تنميه شخصيه ، وحياتيه.

في اخر الكتاب ، فيه أوراق فاضيه ، يطلب منك الكاتب انك ترسم أفكارك الخاصه.

بكل بساطه حبيته، ويخليك تفكر وتتعلم وتعلم من حولك.

[Pavel Annenkov · Rating 3 out of 5]

Собрали в одной маленькой книге основные модели для анализа ситуации и принятия решений в бизнесе и жизни. Ничего нового. Но вспомнить некоторые модели не помешает.

[Ruxi Aderov · Rating 4 out of 5]

Overall, pot spune ca e suficient de utila si practica incat sa o pastrez la indemana pentru momentele in care sunt in impas.

Useful extras:
The greatest danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it, but that it is
too low and we reach it. Michelangelo

The task is not so much to see what no one has yet seen, but to think what nobody yet has
thought about that which everybody sees. Arthur Schopenhauer

Goals should be: smart, clear & pure (acronime)

A peacefulness follows any decision, even the wrong one.
Rita Mae Brown

THE RUBBER BAND MODEL
HOW TO DEAL WITH A DILEMMA
Is this a situation you are familiar with? A friend, colleague or client needs to make a decision
that could irrevocably alter their future: for example to change career, move to another city or
take early retirement. The arguments for and against are evenly balanced. How can you help
them out of their dilemma?
Copy out the rubber band model, and ask the person to ask themselves: What is holding me?
What is pulling me?
At first glance the method seems to be a simple variation of the conventional question “What
are the pros and cons?” The difference is that “What is holding me?” and “What is pulling me?”
are positive questions and reflect a situation with two attractive alternatives.

WHY YOU HAVE TO BE STRUCTURED TO BE CREATIVE
Innovation can mean doing something completely new, but it can also mean making a new
combination of things that already exist. But how is this achieved?
The concept of morphology stems from the study of biological structures and configurations. In
the 1930s, the Swiss physicist Fritz Zwicky at the Institute of Technology in California
developed a problem-solving method using what he called morphological boxes, in which a new
entity is developed by combining the attributes of a variety of existing entities. This method,
which was initially applied by Zwicky to jet engine technology, also began to be used in
marketing strategies and the development of new ideas.
HOW IT WORKS
For the development of a new car, for example, all the relevant parameters (e.g., vehicle type,
target group) are noted, and as many attributes as possible are ascribed to each parameter.
This requires expertise as well as imagination, as the aim is to create something new out of
something that already exists. The result of this method is a table (a morphological box can
have up to four dimensions).
The next stage requires brainstorming: the car has to be an SUV, say, but it also needs to be
energy-efficient and inexpensive to manufacture. Which attributes match these requirements?
Connect your chosen attributes with a line. This gives you an overview of your priorities. Ask
yourself: Could these attributes form the basis of a new car design? Or do you have to
abandon some of them or add new ones?
Besides the morphological box, the SCAMPER checklist developed by Bob Eberle will also help
you to reconfigure an existing idea or product. The following seven key questions are drawn
from a questionnaire developed by Alex Osborn, founder of the advertising agency BBDO:
Substitute? Substitute people, components, materials.
Combine? Combine with other functions or things.
Adapt? Adapt functions or visual appearance.
Modify? Modify the size, shape, texture or acoustics.
Put to other use? Other, new, combined uses.
Eliminate? Reduce, simplify, eliminate anything superfluous.
Reverse? Use conversely, invert, reverse.

THINKING OUTSIDE THE BOX
HOW TO COME UP WITH BRILLIANT IDEAS
A really innovative idea – rather than an old idea that has been applied to a new context, or a
variation of an existing idea – is rare. Innovative ideas usually emerge when we leave our
comfort zone, or when we break the rules. The example used here is the “nine-point problem,”
which first appeared in puzzle magazines at the beginning of the twentieth century.
The task: Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lines without lifting your pen
from the paper.
The solution: The trick is to extend the lines outside the box.
This puzzle is often used as an example of creative thinking. But don’t jump to any rash
conclusions – because Dr. Peter Suedfeld, a professor of psychology at the University of British
Columbia, made an interesting observation. He developed the Restricted Environmental
Stimulation Technique (REST), which involves a person spending time in a darkened room with
no visual or auditory stimulation. Suedfeld noticed that the subjects of the experiment didn’t go
mad. On the contrary: their blood pressure went down, their mood improved and they became
more creative.
A person who wants to think outside the box is better off thinking inside a box.

THE CONSEQUENCES MODEL
WHY IT IS IMPORTANT TO MAKE DECISIONS PROMPTLY
We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguous information. At the
beginning of a project, for example, when the finer details have yet to be clarified, we need to
be bold in our decision-making – particularly because these early decisions have the most far-
reaching consequences. Toward the end of a project we know more and have fewer doubts,
but by then there is no longer anything fundamental to decide.
The most important question, then, is how we can bridge the chasm between doubt and
decision.
Beware! We often defer decisions because we have doubts. But not making a decision is a
decision in itself. If you delay a resolution it is often an unconscious decision, one that you do
not communicate. This leads to uncertainty in a team. So if you want to make a decision later,
be sure to communicate this clearly.
With this model, the Danish organization theorists Kristian Kreiner and Søren Christensen
encourage us to be courageous, and make decisions based on minimal information.
I’d rather regret the things I have done than the things that I haven’t. Lucille Ball

STOP RULE


WHEN YOU SHOULD RETHINK A DECISION


The Decision


AG* 1l 52%


In their excellent book Simp/e Rules, Kathleen Eisenhardt and Donald Sull argue that in certain
situations, simple rules are more effective than complex ones because they shorten the amount
of time needed to process information - one of the most time-consuming processes of all.


To give an example: How do 1 know when I should revise a decision? Give yourself a Stop Rule
The Stop Rule is a hard-and-fast, almost universally applicable alternative to the often tortuous
process of weighing up a situation. In 1935, the legendary investor Gerald Loeb formulated a
simple but powerful Stop Rule for the eternal question asked by all investors: When should 1
sell? Loeb's rule: if an investment loses 10 percent of its value, selit! No questions asked.
The beauty of Stop Rules like these is that they are unconditional. They prevent headaches -
and can even save lives. Mountaineers use stop rules to ensure their safe return. For example:
if we don't reach the summit by 2 p.m., we turn around. When such a Stop Rule was broken on
Mount Everest in 1996, eight people died.


It is an art to recognize the boundaries between cowardice and madness. Reinhold Messner

THE BUYER'S DECISION MODEL


HOW TO BUY A CAR


Let's say you want to buy a car, but can't make a decision. Four-and-half helpful hints:
a
a
1. Establish a research strategy.


The problem of research is that we never know enough but can quickly know too much.
Nowadays, allit takes to acquire the same level of knowledge as a car dealer is a bit of
internet research. And the more you know, the more secure you feel. But eventually you reach
a tipping point; at some point you know too much. Theoret-ically you could spend the rest of
your life reading car reviews. Here's what to do: set yourself your own limits, e.g., three hours
on Google, ask three friends, visit two car dealers
2. Lower your expectations


Don't look for the perfect car: look for a car that fulfils your basic requirements. So says
psychology professor Barry Schwarz. Even if it isn't the best choice, it can make you happier
than no car at all or endlessly searching for one. Here's what to do: put your five most
important criteria for the car in order of priority. Delete the last two
3. Don't worry.


According to the psychologist Daniel Gilbert, most decisions are not as lasting as we might
think in the moment of making them. Here's what to do: use the 10-10-10 technique of Suzy
Welch, who graduated from Harvard in the top 5 percent of her class. In relation to buying a
car, ask yourself: What consequences will my decision have in 10 days? What consequences
willit have in 10 months? And in 10 years?
4. Let somebody else decide


Most people think it is better to make decisions themselves. However, Simona Botti from the
London Business School, proved in an experiment that when making a decision ourselves we
are often subject to nagging doubts that we didn't make the best possible choice. This doubt
goes away if someone else decides for us. Here's what to do: if you're deciding between two
relatively equal cars, let the seller make the decision for you.


Or you can follow the example of Ignatius of Loyola, co-founder of the Jesuit order: spend
three days acting as if you had decided on option one, then spend three days acting as if you
had decided on option two, and only then make a decision.

THE JOHARI WINDOW


WHAT OTHERS KNOW ABOUT YOU


We cannot "grasp" our own personality, but we can be aware of what part of our personality
we reveal to the outside world. The Johari window ("Johari" is derived from the first syllables of
the first names of its inventors, Joseph Luft and Harry Ingham) is one of the most interesting
models for describing human interaction. A four-paned "window" divides personal awareness
into four different types:


A. This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we are aware of ourselves and
that we like to tell others about.
B.This "hidden" quadrant describes things that we know about ourselves but choose not reveal
to others. It decreases in size the more we build up a trusting relationship with others.
C.There are things that we do not know about ourselves but that others can see clearly. And
there are things that we think we are expressing clearly, but which others interpret
completely differently. In this quadrant, feedback can be enlightening but also hurtful.
D.There are aspects of ourselves that are hidden from ourselves as well as others. We are
more complex and multifaceted than we think. From time to time something unknown rises to
the surface from our unconscious for example in a dream.


Choose adjectives (fun, unreliable, etc.) that you think describe you well. Then let others
(friends, colleagues) choose adjectives to describe you. The adjectives are then entered in the
appropriate panes of the window.
Try this exercise with your partner. Are there things about your partner that you wished you had
never discovered? And what do you wish you didn't know about yourself?

THE HARD CHOICE MODEL
THE FOUR APPROACHES TO DECISION-MAKING
Technically speaking, every decision has two parameters: How comparable are the two
options, and how great is the consequence of the decision? Arranged in a matrix, this results in
four different outcomes:
Easy to compare, no consequence: One alternative is better than the other but it does not
play a (big) role if we make the wrong decision.
Difficult to compare, slight consequence: Shall we go to the party or get an early night? The
one option is better in one sense, the other in another, but they aren’t really comparable. This
makes the decision difficult, even if it isn’t actually that important.
Easy to compare, big consequence: When we discover that there is only one operation that
could save our life, we face a big decision – but it is easy to make, because there is no real
alternative.
Difficult to compare, big consequence: Starting a family, changing job – with these hard
choices there is no obviously right decision. According to the philosopher Ruth Chang,
whatever decision you make in the end, it is important to support it with subjective
arguments. Rational weighing up will not help you in this situation.
There is no best alternative. Instead of looking for reasons out there, we should be looking for reasons in here. Ruth Chang

Matrix antifrag: improbabil si periculos - putin, putin; putin, mult; mult, putin; mult, mult.

Risk is what remains after we think we’ve thought of everything.

THE AI MODEL
WHAT KIND OF DISCUSSION TYPE ARE YOU?
The abbreviation AI stands for Appreciative Inquiry, a method attributed to the American
management expert David Cooperrider that involves concentrating on the strengths, positive
attributes and potential of a company or a person, rather than weaknesses. “What is going
really well at the moment?” replaces the classic question “What is the problem?” Concentrating
on weakness creates a negative impression from the outset.
Every person, every system, every product, every idea has faults. In the best-case scenario,
an awareness of this fact can lead to a determined pursuit of perfection. But in many cases,
focusing too strongly on the flaws of an idea or project stifles the open and positive approach
that is essential for good working practices. The basic principle is to take an idea that is not yet
fully developed and to continue developing it, instead of prematurely abandoning it.
People often reveal their character in their approach to discussions. Depending on how they
react to suggestions, they fall into one of the following four categories:
The fault-finder: “The idea is good, but…”
The dictator: “No!”
The schoolteacher: “No, the idea isn’t good because…”
The AI thinker: “Yes, and we could also…”
Any fool can criticize. And most fools do. Benjamin Franklin

THE BLACK SWAN MODEL
WHY YOUR EXPERIENCES DON’T MAKE YOU ANY WISER
Here are three questions for a reflective person: How do we know what we know? Does the
past help us predict the future? Why do we never expect unexpected events?
In his 1912 book The Problems of Philosophy, Bertrand Russell summarized the answers to all
three questions: a chicken that expects to be fed every day assumes that it will continue to be
fed every day. It starts to firmly believe that humans are kind. Nothing in the chicken’s life points
to the fact that one day it will be slaughtered.
We humans also have to acknowledge that the biggest catastrophes usually come as a
complete surprise to us. That’s why, according to Russell, we should always question the things
we take for granted.
For example, when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World Trade Center, the public was
shocked – the catastrophe seemed to strike completely without warning. However, in the
weeks and months following September 11, 2001, it seemed that practically everything had
pointed toward this attack.
The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon – our inability to predict the
future from the past – the black swan. In the Western world it was always assumed that all
swans were white – until naturalists in the seventeenth century discovered a breed of black
swans. What had hitherto been unimaginable was suddenly taken for granted.
Taleb’s black swan thesis is not really a model, but a rejection of the cause-and-effect principle.
And it reminds us that we tend to cling most tightly to pillars that we see toppling.
What were the black swans – the unexpected events – in your life, and when did they occur?

A good team is one that can correctly judge its own capabilities.


Beware! Real strength lies in differences, not in similarities


The best executive is the one who has sense enough to pick good men to do what he wants
done, and self-restraint enough to keep from meddling with them while they do it. Theodore
Roosevelt

Nothing is less productive than doing what should not be done at all. Peter F. Drucker

Don’t be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group. An open conflict is better than
one that simmers unresolved through several stages and forces you to address issues during
the final stages that should have been dealt with much earlier on.

THE EXPECTATIONS MODEL
WHAT TO CONSIDER WHEN CHOOSING A PARTNER
Our little model illustrates the problem of high expectations based on the example of choosing a
partner. If you have no expectations of your future partner, then you are indifferent – and
indifferent decisions are rarely satisfying. The higher your expectations, the happier you are
when you find a partner who lives up to them. You could say that having expectations increases
our overall feeling of happiness. But there is a tipping point: if your expectations exceed a
critical point, disappointment is inevitable, because whatever you are dreaming of becomes
unattainable. Experience teaches us that perfection is a bit like the Loch Ness monster: there
are people who search for it their whole life – but nobody has ever seen it.
Of course, in principle there is nothing wrong with having high expectations. But if you have the
feeling that your standards can never be met, ask yourself: What would you lose if you lowered
your expectations?
Better a diamond with a flaw than a pebble without. Confucius

Our level of satisfaction increases with our expectations. Up to a point. Over-the-top expectations dampen our happiness.

[Luis · Rating 4 out of 5]

Un pequeño libro que tenía muchas ganas de leer. Ofrece modelos gráficos que ayudan en la toma de decisiones y a comprenderse a uno mismo.

Requiere un análisis bastante completo. Para empezar, yo lo titularía de otra forma, porque una parte de él está dedicado a decisiones económicas o de management que difícilmente pueden extrapolarse. No obstante, hay muchas otras cosas en este libro.

Es un volumen que puede no ser del gusto de muchos. Con algunas me he quedado muy sorprendido. Hay esquemas para definir tu personalidad en base a cómo vistes o a quién votas; y la verdad es que aunque podrían ser discutibles, a mí me han gustado. Esto demuestra que es un libro muy heterogéneo y a veces confuso, no es todo decisiones sino saber entenderse a uno mismo.
No es un libro para leerlo rápido, aunque te tiente. Lo digo porque algunos esquemas no se entienden a la primera o tienen varias interpretaciones; y el modo de explicar del libro a veces no es de mucha ayuda. Pero se puede entender que deje mucho a la interpretación de quien decide, que es lo que parece.

Como algunos que me conocen ya saben que yo tiendo a pensar gráficamente, se va a convertir en uno de mis favoritos, porque algunos modelos me llegan al alma, como el del árbol genealógico o el Eisenhower. El capítulo final, el de los modelos finales, me acaba de rematar.

Mi consejo: que te lo dejen, porque si no lo entiendes bien y te lo has comprado puede que te sientas defraudado. Pero de todas formas es difícil que no hayas aprendido algo de él.

[Tim · Rating 2 out of 5]

Disappointing. Basically, the book has no substance to it. You get presented with a number of ideas (I think calling them that is better than calling them models because some just aren't) and then next to nothing as to what you would do with it. Now I knew the book wasn't nearly big enough to cover 50 models in detail and that is OK. I read on models, thinking, and the like all the time so the detail wasn't super important to me, rather I was looking for something that would be new to me or at least that I could say this book was a general reference - it isn't. Even at that I was going to give it 3 stars for what it is until i started to find bits like "Taleb’s black swan thesis is not really a model, but a rejection of the cause-and-effect principle." WHAT?? I'll grant you its not really a model, although. . . that is what the book's title says it is about. But does the author(s) really think Nassim Taleb rejects the idea of cause and effect? Um, go back and read The Black Swan, or Fooled By Randomness, or anything else he has ever written or said. You will never hear him make any such claim. For the author's mistake and/or lack of knowledge the book drops to a 2. Possibly it deserves worse.

[Stamatios Mantzouranis · Rating 3 out of 5]

If the quality of the entire book stayed as high as that of the first half, then it could have earned itself five stars. But as it stands, The Decision Book is at the same time too wide and too shallow to be much helpful. The authors call a "model" any organisational theory they could think of. Case in point: The Black Swan ...model is visualised with the silhouette of a black swan and a text balloon with the words "Black Swan" pointing to it! Needless to say, not everything is a model and half of the book is similarly extraneous. Moreover, some of the chapters that are indeed valuable could have used a few more details and/or pragmatic examples on how to use each model. Perhaps I had too high hopes from the premise of the book and was deeply disappointed but its content as a result.

[rawan · Rating 3 out of 5]

You have to be really bad at making decisions to read this book. Like absolutely and pathetically hopeless at making decisions. A lot in this book points out the obvious.

The book covers a variety of topics which is nice, there's something for everyone, but then loads of material you won't use unless your not from the particular group of people who'd use it. Like how the third section of the book consisted of corporate work and employee team work. If you're not working actively in teams in your job, you wouldn't find it very helpful.

One good thing about this book is that it diverts your attention from the regular negative vs positive thinking and focuses more on assessing positive vs positive in a given situation. So that was new.

[Carlos · Rating 4 out of 5]

Simple and clear. Nothing that is not available (scattered) out there but a good compile of useful frameworks. I've left it next to my desk and using it when feeling stuck with a problem/decision.

[Amrendra · Rating 4 out of 5]

A short, sharp guide to tackling life’s biggest challenges: understanding ourselves and making the right choices. Every day offers moments of decision, from what to eat for lunch to how to settle a dispute with a colleague. Still larger questions loom: How can I motivate my team? How can I work more efficiently? What is the long tail anyway? Whether you’re a newly minted MBA, a chronic second-guesser, or just someone eager for a new vantage point, The Decision Book presents fifty models for better structuring, and subsequently understanding, life’s steady challenges.

The book is divided in four broad sections - How to improve Yourself, How to understand yourself better, How to understand others better and How to improve others. These have been explained with models (Pareto Principle, Prisoner's Dilemma, Double-Loop Learning, Black Swan, et al) that form the base of this book. At the end there is a write-up on AI, big data and the relevance of traditional models in changing times. Overall a good reference book for self improvement, work management and team building.

[Mahdi Nasseri · Rating 4 out of 5]

کتاب خیلی خلاصه منتخبی از مدل‌ها و الگوهایی رو که به تصمیم‌گیری کمک می‌کنند معرفی کرده. نمی‌شه گفت این کتاب اونها رو آموزش می‌ده. یه جوری یک مرجع سبک برای انتخاب الگوی تصمیم‌گیریه که هر الگو رو بخواید باید برید دنبالش و بیشتر در موردش یاد بگیرید. کتاب دسته‌بندی خوبی داره و همین خودش کمک می کنه تا سریع‌تر الگوی مورد نظر رو پیدا کنید.
من لذت زیادی از خوندن این کتاب بردم. به خصوص اینکه یکی از مدل‌های اون باعث شد یکی از بزرگ‌ترین و مهم ترین مشکلات ذهنی و روانی‌م رو بهتر بشناسم و آگاهانه باهاش برخورد کنم. طوری که وقتی اون مدل رو خودم گریه‌م گرفته بود.

[Ana Claudia Santos-Cortez · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a simple collection of existing models that help taking decisions, knowing one self better and others. It's handy to keep it in the working desk in case you want to refer a model to others since it's figures are easy to understand and it doesn't deep dive in theory but not more than that

[Linh Chi · Rating 3 out of 5]

Với mình đây là 1 cuốn sách dùng để tham khảo chứ không phải là cuốn sách có thể khiến người đọc đọc từ đầu đến cuối được. Với 60% là nhìn vào sự phát triển cá nhân và ra quyết định, 40% là về cách bạn làm việc với người khác.
Thứ đọng lại trong đầu mình là trước khi hành động hãy lập ra kế hoạch thật đầy đủ và chi tiết. Review cực ngắn gọn vì mình cũng không biết viết gì thêm :(

[Ferhat Elmas · Rating 3 out of 5]

Just a short refresher.

[Diego Eis · Rating 3 out of 5]

Livro facinho de ler. Basicamente uma breve explicação de diagramas, frameworks, canvas e outros sistemas e métodos. Interessante pra ter como referência.

[Leidy Ramirez · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting and didactic.