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October Surprise: How the FBI Tried to Save Itself and Crashed an Election
The 2016 Election, which altered American political history, was not decided by the Russians or in Ukraine or by Steve Bannon. The event that broke Hillary's blue wall in the Midwest and swung Florida and North Carolina was an October Surprise, and it was wholly a product of the leadership of the FBI. This is the inside story by the reporter closest to its center.
In September 2016, Hillary Clinton was the presumptive next president of the US. She had a blue wall of states leaning her way in the Midwest, and was ahead in North Carolina and Florida, with a better than even shot at taking normally Republican Arizona. The US was about to get its first woman president. Yet within two months everything was lost. An already tightening race saw one seismic it came in October when the FBI launched an investigation into the Clinton staff's use of a private server for their emails. Clinton fell 3-4 percent in the polls instantly, and her campaign never had time to rebut the investigation or rebuild her momentum so close to election day. The FBI cost her the race.
October Surprise is a pulsating narrative of an agency seized with righteous certainty that waded into the most important political moment in the life of the nation, and has no idea how to back out with dignity. So it doggedly stands its ground, compounding its error. In a momentous display of self-preservation, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, and key Justice Department officials decide to protect their own reputations rather than save the democratic process. Once they make that determination, the race is lost for Clinton, who is helpless in front of their accusation even though she has not intended to commit, let alone actually committed, any crime.
A dark true-life thriller with historic consequences set at the most crucial moment in the electoral calendar, October Surprise is a warning, a morality tale and a political and personal tragedy.
In September 2016, Hillary Clinton was the presumptive next president of the US. She had a blue wall of states leaning her way in the Midwest, and was ahead in North Carolina and Florida, with a better than even shot at taking normally Republican Arizona. The US was about to get its first woman president. Yet within two months everything was lost. An already tightening race saw one seismic it came in October when the FBI launched an investigation into the Clinton staff's use of a private server for their emails. Clinton fell 3-4 percent in the polls instantly, and her campaign never had time to rebut the investigation or rebuild her momentum so close to election day. The FBI cost her the race.
October Surprise is a pulsating narrative of an agency seized with righteous certainty that waded into the most important political moment in the life of the nation, and has no idea how to back out with dignity. So it doggedly stands its ground, compounding its error. In a momentous display of self-preservation, James Comey, Andrew McCabe, and key Justice Department officials decide to protect their own reputations rather than save the democratic process. Once they make that determination, the race is lost for Clinton, who is helpless in front of their accusation even though she has not intended to commit, let alone actually committed, any crime.
A dark true-life thriller with historic consequences set at the most crucial moment in the electoral calendar, October Surprise is a warning, a morality tale and a political and personal tragedy.
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Published October 28, 2020
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Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews
June 21, 2021
Devlin Barrett gives a behind the scenes look at the build up to and impact of James Comey’s history changing announcement that the FBI was reopening its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails. It was a decision that violated FBI and Justice Department policies, and provided candidate Trump with enough tailwind for victory.
From this slice of FBI history you get a window on the investigative process at the staff level. You see careful sifting of Hillary Clinton’s emails and planning for Stefan Halper’s recordings of Trump campaign personnel. The rules of evidence are so strict that John Robertson obsessed over the mere approach to the Clinton email file he found on the Weiner computer. You see deliberation on how the new emails would be opened. You see how an intelligence contractor like Christopher Steele approaches the FBI. Later you see how leaks a tracked down.
It all is shown to be very structured, lawful and transparent, but at the top, you see important policies disrespected. Andrew McCabe was not recused despite his wife’s $600,000 conflict of interest (and he fought to remain on task when this became a public issue). James Comey did not clear his precedent and policy breaking decision with his boss at the Department of Justice. Lisa Page and Peter Strzok used company equipment for personal use.
The chapter called “Asymmetrical Politics” describes the relentless personal hammering of the GOP while the Democrats discuss policy. Barrett quotes a former Justice Department spokesman “When you’re only getting criticized by one side you only worry about that side, and that has an impact on your decision making”. It was obvious that, to Comey, Hillary Clinton was expendable.
Comey’s July 2016 exoneration of Clinton, sounded more like an indictment than an exoneration. The October 2016 announcement shows an extreme lack of care not just for the policy and chain of command but also consultation with staff about how long it would take to review the email. Comey gave no mention of the other, more consequential, investigation of candidate Trump.
While the sub-title conveys the author’s view that “The FBI tried to save itself”, the decision was made by Comey, not the “FBI” nor the overseeing Department of Justice. To me, this is Comey attempting to co-opt his critics by solidifying his Republican support.
This is a good look at what happened. Devlin Barrett has been a reporter for The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. It has the reporter style and is a good documentation of this sad episode of American history.
From this slice of FBI history you get a window on the investigative process at the staff level. You see careful sifting of Hillary Clinton’s emails and planning for Stefan Halper’s recordings of Trump campaign personnel. The rules of evidence are so strict that John Robertson obsessed over the mere approach to the Clinton email file he found on the Weiner computer. You see deliberation on how the new emails would be opened. You see how an intelligence contractor like Christopher Steele approaches the FBI. Later you see how leaks a tracked down.
It all is shown to be very structured, lawful and transparent, but at the top, you see important policies disrespected. Andrew McCabe was not recused despite his wife’s $600,000 conflict of interest (and he fought to remain on task when this became a public issue). James Comey did not clear his precedent and policy breaking decision with his boss at the Department of Justice. Lisa Page and Peter Strzok used company equipment for personal use.
The chapter called “Asymmetrical Politics” describes the relentless personal hammering of the GOP while the Democrats discuss policy. Barrett quotes a former Justice Department spokesman “When you’re only getting criticized by one side you only worry about that side, and that has an impact on your decision making”. It was obvious that, to Comey, Hillary Clinton was expendable.
Comey’s July 2016 exoneration of Clinton, sounded more like an indictment than an exoneration. The October 2016 announcement shows an extreme lack of care not just for the policy and chain of command but also consultation with staff about how long it would take to review the email. Comey gave no mention of the other, more consequential, investigation of candidate Trump.
While the sub-title conveys the author’s view that “The FBI tried to save itself”, the decision was made by Comey, not the “FBI” nor the overseeing Department of Justice. To me, this is Comey attempting to co-opt his critics by solidifying his Republican support.
This is a good look at what happened. Devlin Barrett has been a reporter for The Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post. It has the reporter style and is a good documentation of this sad episode of American history.
October 26, 2020
What lay behind that October Surprise of 2016: the vanity of Comey? An overzealous press? Hillary's own follies? Devlin Barrett adds another, convincing, ingredient to the stew that churned up an Electoral College victory for Donald Trump: a toxic relationship between the Department of Justice and FBI in 2016.
Barrett recounts the twists and turns of the Clinton email saga, with a focus upon how the FBI mishandled the investigation, and how the DOJ let the FBI do the mishandling. What comes across is no surprise: Comey wanted to plow ahead, certain of his own righteousness and doubtful that anyone in the DOJ or Obama administration could deliver a capstone to the investigation that would satisfy the Republicans in Congress and the Trump campaign in 2016.
What is amazing about Barrett's narrative is how much the FBI had to deal with in 2016: Clinton's emails; Trump's Russia connections; the supposed conflicts of interest of Deputy FBI Director McCabe; and, eventually, the lurid texts of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page. In this maelstrom, Attorney General Loretta Lynch and DAG Sally Yates did almost nothing to coordinate with Comey, to ensure that the FBI would not insert itself unnecessarily and unfairly into the presidential election season.
Once again, the tale told by Barrett appears to be not one of malintention, but misplaced priorities. Why were Republicans appeased by a shot at Clinton in July 2016? Why were Republicans appeased again as Comey delivered the fateful October letter to Congress announcing the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton's emails? Why was Russian interference kept quiet, while Clinton was elevated into a Shakespearean villain?
What could have prevented Comey's October letter - perhaps nothing. One thing is for sure, though: the mistrust between the DOJ and FBI created a poisonous environment, where mistakes, particularly ones of supreme consequence, were ripe in an unprecedented election year.
Barrett recounts the twists and turns of the Clinton email saga, with a focus upon how the FBI mishandled the investigation, and how the DOJ let the FBI do the mishandling. What comes across is no surprise: Comey wanted to plow ahead, certain of his own righteousness and doubtful that anyone in the DOJ or Obama administration could deliver a capstone to the investigation that would satisfy the Republicans in Congress and the Trump campaign in 2016.
What is amazing about Barrett's narrative is how much the FBI had to deal with in 2016: Clinton's emails; Trump's Russia connections; the supposed conflicts of interest of Deputy FBI Director McCabe; and, eventually, the lurid texts of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page. In this maelstrom, Attorney General Loretta Lynch and DAG Sally Yates did almost nothing to coordinate with Comey, to ensure that the FBI would not insert itself unnecessarily and unfairly into the presidential election season.
Once again, the tale told by Barrett appears to be not one of malintention, but misplaced priorities. Why were Republicans appeased by a shot at Clinton in July 2016? Why were Republicans appeased again as Comey delivered the fateful October letter to Congress announcing the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton's emails? Why was Russian interference kept quiet, while Clinton was elevated into a Shakespearean villain?
What could have prevented Comey's October letter - perhaps nothing. One thing is for sure, though: the mistrust between the DOJ and FBI created a poisonous environment, where mistakes, particularly ones of supreme consequence, were ripe in an unprecedented election year.
November 10, 2020
I liked this book because the author was the reporter in many of the stories in this book. It provided additional details I didn't know. He was very critical of McCabe, Comey and the FBI and DOJ in general. It was the harshest assessment of McCabe I've read.
May 11, 2021
"Weiner laptop"
October 22, 2020
October Surprise is an excellent book about the events leading up to the 2016 election. It is written in a language that is easy to follow and not boring like most political books. Highly recommend for those who are curious about what actually happened at the FBI during those months before the election.
February 5, 2021
Strong reporting. There was a lot of new-to-me info, and I’ve read a ton of books on this era and topic so that’s impressive. The format, following the calendar by day, was helpful in putting it all in perspective. It really held my attention despite having read on the topic a lot already, so someone who hadn’t yet should be really fascinated.
July 8, 2024
This is the depressing story of how James Comey, along with others at the FBI, mishandled and publicized the investigation into Hillary Clinton's email account (which turned out to be nothing) while at the same time keeping quiet about the investigation into the Trump campaign's possible ties to Russia (which turned out to be something--people went to prison; Trump should have been indicted for obstruction of justice based on the Mueller investigation but was spared by the Justice Department's policy of not indicting a sitting President). Barrett's book follows what-happened-when via documents and interviews and hindsight, reaching the conclusion that Comey's actions were sufficient to tip the scales of the election and probably did. Especially depressing here in July 2024, when the re-election of Trump is a frightening possibility.
November 8, 2020
One of the best books by far about the "Russian collusion" story. Barrett is no RWNJ and actually commits an act of investigative journalism. Its the nonfiction equivalent of a live unicorn these days.
November 11, 2020
October Surprise documents yet another institution falling on hard times. Hopefully Mr. Barrett will be able to write a follow up documenting the Bureau's return to glory and greatness.
Displaying 1 - 9 of 9 reviews