Xi Jinping: The Backlash

by Richard McGregor

Xi Jinping has transformed China at home and abroad with a speed and aggression that few foresaw when he came to power in 2012. Finally, he is meeting resistance, both at home among disgruntled officials and disillusioned technocrats, and abroad from an emerging coalition of Western nations that seem determined to resist China’s geopolitical and high-tech expansion. With the United States and China at loggerheads, Richard McGregor outlines how the world came to be split in two.

Genres: China, Politics, Nonfiction, History, Asia, International Relations, Political Science

144 pages, Kindle Edition

Published July 16, 2019

About the author

Richard McGregor is a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute.

Reviews

[The Contented · Rating 5 out of 5]

Brilliant! Although just a lengthy paper published as a book (just over 100 pages), this was one of the most insightful books I’ve read in a long time.

There was so much to mark up and highlight - ideas I wanted to remember. I actually regretted not having a highlighter with me on the tube.

On China, this was the political rounding off of what came through so clearly in Nicholas Lardy’s ‘The State Strikes Back’ (read in 2019).

Both books, the politics and the economics examination of the same subject, complement each other very well. This one did much more to boost my understanding of current developments in China than most of what I have read in the last three years.

Also very good on the international relations of increasing trade disputes. One of the best.

Chance find in the London Review of Books bookshop when I stopped there after a meeting. Am so glad about that chance encounter!

[Marian · Rating 4 out of 5]

Xi Jinping: The Backlash is a succinct overview (~115 small pages) of Xi's political attitude, CCP dynamics, and the relationship between China and the U.S. (plus Australia, Germany, and Singapore). Published in 2019, this little book includes very recent information plus references to Obama, Trump, and Biden that U.S. readers in particular will find intriguing. I would've liked to see more details on the Belt and Road, but due to the length of this book and its focus, I wasn't necessarily expecting more on that topic. I would say CEO, China by Kerry Brown is still a better introduction to Xi since it explains similar topics in better depth for newbies. That said, this book includes some more recent examples that I found interesting, such as how Germany and Australia have reacted to China's economic initiative.

[Lucien · Rating 5 out of 5]

A stratospheric overview of the responses of various countries to changes in China's internal and external politics as a result of Xi's ascent. Implies that much recent policy comes from a cult of personality around Xi.

Mostly restrains from dipping into value judgements, and provides reasonable support when it does.

Good as a (very) brief foray into China and the World, but should be followed up with much more reading to gain deeper understanding.

[Allen He · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book has some interesting information that I have never previously considered, yet has a lot of biases against China such as exaggerating the influence China over other countries. It failed to consider the situation from Chinese's perspective and never explored why the Chinese government retaliated some of the countries through foreign trade and other means.

This is a country that had been bullied by western countries for hundreds of years and had since determined to establish a new country that would never be humiliated again. That is why there are some rules that you should not break when you are working with China. This just shows disrespect. Hope this explains some of the actions of Chinese government, which does not want to become a hegemony that wants to dominate the world.

[Joe Stack · Rating 3 out of 5]

In this brief book, the author provides a clear and concise examination of China’s leader, Xi Jinping. This analysis was written during the Trump years, so some of the review is be inconclusive regarding the results of the changes with trade and tariffs that Trump initiated, other than these changes prompting “a spike in (Chinese) nationalistic fervor and a determination to back national,champions in technology.” Nonetheless, the author’s survey points out how much China is Xi and Xi is China. The author goes behind media and official reports to look at how Xi is changing the Chinese Communist Party and how this affects all aspects of China, domestically and in global relations. In addition to the U.S., McGregor reviews China’s relationships with Australia, Germany, and Singspore.

The author’s premise is how and why Xi’s policies have created a backlash internally and externally. The examination of the domestic scene is, I thought, the most interesting part of this book. It explains, for instance, why the change Xi implemented to remain power is more than an autocrat maintaining power, it’s also protection from the backlash he likely would face if he left power. Xi’s anti-corruption canpaign and his strengthening of the Party, especially with regards to the privately run businesses are changes that have created guarded dissent. The difficulty for China watchers is “the opacity of Beijing’s internal politics makes judgements about disruption inside China difficult,” and it’s the domestic narrative that tailors China’s integration with the world.

Anyone interested in a better understanding of China under Xi should find this easy to read book (basically a report) informative, such as it was for this reader to learn from the author that in Beijing “there has always been recognition that it was dangerous for China to bully its way to regional domination.”

[Stephen · Rating 5 out of 5]

I really enjoyed reading this and I'm really happy that I impulse bought this. It was the perfect size and had a great balance between being introductory and insightful on a topic that's extremely important for the world right now. I generally haven't really paid much attention to the Chinese leaders and how their individual characteristics differ, but after reading this I have a much better idea of the changes that are happening within China right now and how this informs the relationship between HK and the rest of China.

[Henry · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thoroughly enjoyed this short paper on one of the worlds most notable autocrats. McGregor illustrates an illuminating picture of China and the various other powers at play, both foreign and internal, setting the stage for the reasons and causes of China’s rise to superpower dominance and Xi Jingping’s unchallengeable supremacy.

A great insight and take on Xi and China, it will be interesting to see how these observations will look in a decades time.

[Nicolas Bernard · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting book, reads fast and feels like a summary of the book that he planned to write or an introduction for a political science class, nowhere in-depth like his previous "The Party". Gives an overview of the difference between Xi and previous leaders and current dynamics but lacks details (South China sea, internal politics, central-local government dynamics, Germany/Australia/US, ...). Good for everyone, but if you know a bit about China you'll still feel hungry after reading.

[Cindy · Rating 4 out of 5]

The essay provided a high-level overview of the political changes in China under Xi’s rule, and depicted the growing domestic tension and international antagonism the CCP is facing. Nothing much new if you are familiar with the topic. But what puzzles me is, with a more liberal political and economic system, will the US tolerate a powerful China?

[Paul Frandano · Rating 4 out of 5]

Journalist Richard McGregor has given us a concise, useful summary of a troublesome development in international relations, in the form of a global reaction to, for want of a better phrase, the” Xi Jinping effect’ that has gradually become manifest since his ascent to the three highest offices in the People’s Republic of China—General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and Chairman of the Party’s Central Military Commission in 2012 and President of China in 2013. Indeed, the United States and many of its allies in Europe and Asia/Pacific see Xi’s China as the coming decade’s most significant global challenge across every significant transnational domain: political, economic, military, and diplomatic.

Following decades of reform that gradually sought, sometimes cosmetically and other times integrally, to distance the CCP from the state and thereby protect the vibrant private-sector economy from ideological interference, Xi’s rise marks a return to an rigid emphasis on Party primacy in all walks of Chinese life. Xi has mandated Party committees and watchdogs in places where they had generally been sidelined, disbanded, or otherwise excluded in the the high tide of opening and reform in the three-plus decades before Xi. Party committees now play more prominent roles in both Chinese and foreign "private-businesses" operating in China, to include Taiwan, American, European factories and business offices. Also notable is the revivification of party cells and study-and-indoctrination sessions throughout universities, workplaces, and the military, at every level of society, in both urban and rural areas.

Moreover, as part of the reemphasis on the Party, Xi revived the prominence of Mao Zedong and his significant historical role, granting The Great Helmsman primary agency in the Party’s Great-Chain-of-Being: Mao, the mythical presence from the party’s founding in Shanghai in 1921 through the epic drama of the Chinese Revolution—the Jiangxi Soviet, the Long March, Yenan, the Anti-Japanese National United Front of proletarians and bourgeoisie following Japan’s invasion of China in 1936, final victory in 1949, with Mao pronouncing from atop Tiananmen, “The Chinese people have stood up!”

In Xi’s mind, surmises McGregor, removing Mao from the equation would delete him from the Chinese Revolution and the Party he led…the entire edifice of Party legitimacy in all sectors thus wobbles and threatens to collapse. The vast majority of living Chinese were born after the Cultural Revolution (1966--1976), the death of Mao (1976), and the decisions of the early 1980s that pointed to Mao’s “mistakes.” Consequently, the population needs to relearn the early lessons, the hardships the Party and the Chinese people faced, and, naturally, that “all our progress is due to the wise leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.” Mao remains, in Xi’s mind, the linchpin of this history and legacy.

McGregor comments on Western concern over the persecution, if not outright suppression, of Muslims in Xinjiang and observes that under Xi, as part of this and other social control efforts, China may now well be the most widely and deeply surveilled country in the world, with its pioneering advances in facial recognition technologies and imaginative uses of big generated by the popular addiction to the internet and its massive large social media universe, all of which feed into China’s social credit system of data-gathering for loyalty report cards on all Chinese. Other measures, both technical and old-fashioned physical (read that as local “goons” who see little harm in dragging a troublemaker into a basement for some straightening out), put Orwell’s Big Brother in the shade. Dissenters are routinely jailed, publications closed and editors punished for questioning the official line.

McGregor is also critical of Xi’s program of asserting Chinese interests more aggressively in regional and international affairs, at the same time that the United States under Donald Trump questions its alliances and retreats from international obligations. Since Xi’s assumption of power in 2012 until today, he has steadily raised alarms in the region and beyond, provoking, on and off, calls for Cold War-type responses to his overstepping of normative boundaries established by Deng Xiaoping to “hide our capacities and bide our time.” China’s more provocative behavior is made all the more problematic in the context the erratic inconsistency of a chaotic Trump "China policy" and America’s diminished appetite for leadership, either regionally or globally, even if only the US has the sufficient array of political, economic, military, and soft-power resources to organize an international effort that might nudge on more congenial path...if potential US partners were not as worried by an unreliable Trump as by Xi.

McGregor’s pamphlet contains a few generic recommendations for “standing up to China”: Western and allied solidarity, competing openly, speaking up about Chinese misdeeds, being mindful of China’s interest in picking off and neutralizing via economic interest in mutually beneficial trade regional and more distant friends of democracy one by one, leaving others isolated and, perhaps, ultimately leaving the United States on its own.

[Luke · Rating 3 out of 5]

China will grow old before it grows rich, say the economists. This neatly captures Richard McGregor’s core argument in Xi Jinping: The Backlash (henceforth The Backlash): without a course correction, China's people will soon be too old, its growth too slow, its political class too full of enemies and its geopolitical neighbours and rivals too bold for President Xi Jinping to remain the most powerful ruler since Mao.

Xi's rule has been characterised at home by a far-reaching anti-corruption campaign, which has sent shockwaves through China and made him thousands of enemies at all levels of the Communist Party. Abroad, China projects power throughout the South China Sea and governs client states in Cambodia and Laos. In addition, Xi's rule has also seen considerable economic slowdown: an ageing population, strict capital controls and a trade war with the United States have taken their toll on an overheated Chinese economy.

Some of this is politics, McGregor argues, and some is personal. Xi, by all accounts, is a true believer in the Communist cause, and has expanded the presence of the Party in private entrepreneurship, but came to power as a compromise candidate with no power base of its own. He looks fearfully at the collapse of the Soviet Union as a warning of what might happen to China if it is hollowed out by corruption, territorial breakaways or foreign interference, and will ensure nothing can challenge the Party's supremacy.

The Backlash is a tightly-packed synthesis of what matters to Xi Jinping, and what keeps China’s leadership awake at night. It is also a useful synopsis of how the United States and several regional powers have tried to redefine their role in a world that China is reshaping daily. The world, however, is already awash with vague predictions of China's collapse — economists, the joke says, have predicted nine of the last five recessions — and McGregor is treading familiar ground in old boots. He can easily be forgiven for not making specific predictions about the nature of Xi’s rule and how it might end, but why not suggest policy prescriptions for Australia? What credible alternative can we offer to vulnerable states, as the American model begins to show signs of strain? How can we capture the attention of India -- a country McGregor neglects to mention -- or build a society more resilient to the non-kinetic threats increasingly deployed by an emboldened China? Without at least one of those two things, this book is left searching for purpose.

He provides one clear imperative: united we stand, divided we fall. The Five Eyes make up little over a third of China’s population, the top 25 democracies (as determined by the Economist Intelligence Unit), about two-thirds. Complete policy alignment is unrealistic, but as The Backlash concludes, cooperation between liberal democracies means competing with China, speaking openly about its actions and standing up to it when necessary. There will be costs, but that is surely better than being picked off one-by-one.

[Russell Chee · Rating 2 out of 5]

Another brief book, another brief review.

Where this book stands out is in Richard McGregor's obvious expertise with contemporary China: he is well-informed about the multiple competing tendencies of Xi Jinping's massive anti-corruption campaign, and so too does he well illuminate the nuances of the deepening links between the state and private enterprise in society.

Where this book falls flat is in delivering what it promises: where is the backlash? Most of the book simply discusses Xi's policy thrusts and their potential impacts; only the last chapter even attempts to analyse the international impacts of Xi's policy. Admittedly, McGregor attempts to discuss the potential domestic backlash regarding the increasing encroachment of the state into private enterprise, but from a book that promises a discussion on the bifurcation of the world into two blocs, this hardly cuts it.

I understand that the length of the book is a major factor preventing a more in-depth discussion, but even so I don't think this is a good overview of the current situation; more time should have been spent on international relations (the thorny issue of the South China Sea is almost completely absent).

[Duan 端書房 · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good overview, familiar analysis and few more insights;

China's rise into the ranks of superpower is coupled with Xi's unprecedented autocratic rule; The reactions to Xi's determinism have been harsh and the situation of domestic feud has since been much worse than that of the time this book's written at;

Few questions remained unanswered: What is alternative model to Xi's if he is to leave office under pressure? How the factional struggle inside the party and growing fiscal crisis throught the society will drive his departure? And, in either case, how is the struggle between China and United States going to play out?

China is a country with much milder paces of reform than Russia, which means it retain a much stronger relationship between the Party and the so called market; Xi is a ruler of determined, Putin-like mindset to assert the Party's predominance over the country, possibly even over the world, but with much stronger resource to wield and much more vengeance at home, which means a burst of internal struggle ( already happened in 2011-14 ) and an overt show of force on international stage pending and inevitable, possibly stimulating each other, even.

[Satya Chari · Rating 5 out of 5]

erstwhile extractors | imperialists | colonialists cops it this time...

A fine argument, well researched | thought and presented....

West tried “labour extraction | colonisation” this time and China patiently obliged; replacing “opium” with “addictive consumption”; and the West woke up to find itself riding a tiger this time

In the post-Mao era, the United States has by and large been, the indispensable enabler of China’s rise; experiencing buyers remorse today

The public in Australia will feel the pressure, when tensions with China move out of the politically esoteric realm of influence debates and into managing an economic rupture

China does not merely want consideration of its interests. China expects deference to its interests to be internalised by the rest as a mode of thought, “correct thinking” leading to “correct behaviour” - forming a permanent part of subconscious; unlike foriegn policy calculations that are subject to continual revision

I have been Satya Chari

[Zoltan Pogatsa · Rating 2 out of 5]

McGregor's previous book, The Party, was excellent. He gave real insight into the workings of the CPC. This new one is a disappointment. It is really not much more than a tyrade against Xi. It is obvious that the author hates Xi. But should that stop him from providing some evidence? Some empirical stuff?
The book says almost nothing about Xi himself. Not about his ideas, not about his carreer, not about his base...
The aothor claims Xi was using anti corruption to cleanse his opponents. Then he spends long pages exploring how corruption really is a huge problem in China at all levels.
We never learn how China is more authoritarian NOW than it was before. Maybe it is. But we do not learn about this from this book. All we do learn is that that the West is very dependent on China. And now that they are realising that China is overtaking them is tech, suddenly the authoritarianism is important. Whereas it has been ignored for decades when it suited the West.

[Peter Stuart · Rating 4 out of 5]

The compromise candidate, not seen as a threat to anyone or either major political camp, who attained power, rose, publicly expunged all of his potential rivals and then removed presidential office terms hence making himself both president/ emperor for life and a modern day deity in the mold of Mao.

Written in 2019 by widely recognized eminent author on China, the paper provides an insight into what the dammed reservoir of backlash against Xi may well be within China, and why he in turn drives China towards potential confrontation to keep those at home within his “house” by using xenophobia and past mistreatment, perceived and real, from those outside China.

Informative, thought provoking and delivered in the authors usual without fear or favor manner, this is a paper well worth reading.

[Drew Tschirki · Rating 5 out of 5]

After finishing McGregor’s “The Party” earlier this week I decided to jump right in to his essay on a Xi Jinping. It was clear, concise, analytical. The premise of the essay is founded on the backlash both domestic and international that Xi Jinping has received or will likely receive for his actions including but not limited to the famed anti-corruption campaign and the trade war with Donald Trump. McGregor argues that Xi isn’t a simple revisionist who is attempting to roll back the economic successes of the last twenty years that has made China a superpower but rather he is trying to return power both political and economic to the ruling Party where the true success and power lies, at least to Xi.

[Simon Pockley · Rating 4 out of 5]

A well-written, succinct insight into the internal context in which Xi Jinping steers China towards global dominance. Australia's inept response will inevitably lead to profound economical and even cultural humiliation. Most interesting was the way in which Xi is shoring up his position by cleansing and then using the Party to abet and then take a slice of the entrepreneurial profits. How long can this all continue - anyone's guess. It would be fascinating to know more about Xi Jinping, the man and his family. Richard McGregor mentions briefly that for all the purging of corruption, Xi's family have been generously profiting. Will this be the ultimate backlash or will it be ignored?

[Matthijs · Rating 4 out of 5]

McGregor is a rarity in the landscape of China Versteher. He actually knows his stuff and goes beyond the superficial analyses that many China specialists dare to publish, in part thanks to his insight into the domestic intricacies of Chinese politics and its institutions. Though short, this paper-ish work provides a concise and sharp-witted overview of the Xi Jinping reign up to 2019. I would have given it a 5-star review, but found the final chapter on China's relationships with Western powers Australia and Germany, and Asian economic stronghold Singapore, somewhat lacking in depth and originality.

[Alan Riles · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thought provoking. But the backlash needs a Plan B!

Ostensibly about Xi Jinping, but also a reflection on Trump. Mirror images, both are autocrats papering over the cracks of internal dissension with strongarm tactics abroad.
The real case is for a coalition of the smaller but economically still significant world economies like Germany, Australia, Canada, Japan as a bastion of rational liberal democracies in the face of 2 superpowers out of control. But this coalition needs to formulate a Plan B.
Medium size is beautiful!

[Edwina · Rating 4 out of 5]

An insightful book by Richard McGregor that encapsulates the backlash from Western countries on Xi Jinping, Xi's attitude towards politics, workings of the CCP and the relationship between China and the United States. While short, McGregor captures a succinct insight delving into the complexities within the nature of China as a global superpower, its dominance in the South Asia and Pacific region and Xi's political goals as President. Well written! Would recommend if you want to learn more about the growing influence and rise of China in our contemporary times.

[Michael West · Rating 4 out of 5]

There was less about the backlash than I was expecting - Xi’s position still seems pretty secure and the book doesn’t really suggest there will be a change in China’s “assertive” foreign policy. But I enjoyed the book as a concise summary of Xi’s consolidation of power and work to spread Party control. Didn’t know that *2.7 million people* have been investigated as part of the anti-corruption campaign!

[Lucas Napier-Macdonald · Rating 3 out of 5]

Another fine book by Richard McGregor.
As I mentioned in my review for "The Party," I found he occasionally strayed too far from the point. This is a book ostensibly about Xi Jinping, but there were many, many paragraphs devoted to other things. Yes, Xi Jinping's career isn't finished, and in some ways it's just beginning. But the task was to write a book about him. Stay focused!

[Logout · Rating 5 out of 5]

A timely analysis and deep understanding of the ongoing events.

As a very short book, it only covers the backlash against Xi and how did they materialize. Better to read it after finishing the author’s The Party.

[John Fullerton · Rating 4 out of 5]

Excellent contemporary briefing on China and its place in the world, particularly vis a vis Xi and the madman in the White House. The author is someone I'd want as my China advisor were I a prime minister or foreign minister: wise, well-informed, nuanced and objective.

[J.D. Kessey · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good starting point for understanding China's position at this current time and the opposition Xi Jingping. To many people don't understand the situation and the weight of it.

[Ian · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting essay. Pleased I read it. Xi seems very deft in management. But seems to have made errors, in RM views.

[Karl · Rating 5 out of 5]

Clear and up to date evaluation of the current situation within Xi Jinping’s CCP and International Relations.

[Helen Park · Rating 5 out of 5]

Certainly opinionated, but nevertheless very thorough for its short length.
Felt like a depiction of global politics that is untold in the media, whether or not all sources are true.

[Lucas Bianchi · Rating 5 out of 5]

Fantastic pre pandemic review of Xi's economic policies.