Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise

by Scott Rozelle, Natalie Hell

As the glittering skyline in Shanghai seemingly attests, China has quickly transformed itself from a place of stark poverty into a modern, urban, technologically savvy economic powerhouse. But as Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell show in Invisible China , the truth is much more complicated and might be a serious cause for concern. China’s growth has relied heavily on unskilled labor. Most of the workers who have fueled the country’s rise come from rural villages and have never been to high school. While this national growth strategy has been effective for three decades, the unskilled wage rate is finally rising, inducing companies inside China to automate at an unprecedented rate and triggering an exodus of companies seeking cheaper labor in other countries. Ten years ago, almost every product for sale in an American Walmart was made in China. Today, that is no longer the case. With the changing demand for labor, China seems to have no good back-up plan. For all of its investment in physical infrastructure, for decades China failed to invest enough in its people. Recent progress may come too late. Drawing on extensive surveys on the ground in China, Rozelle and Hell reveal that while China may be the second-largest economy in the world, its labor force has one of the lowest levels of education of any comparable country. Over half of China’s population—as well as a vast majority of its children—are from rural areas. Their low levels of basic education may leave many unable to find work in the formal workplace as China’s economy changes and manufacturing jobs move elsewhere. In Invisible China , Rozelle and Hell speak not only to an urgent humanitarian concern but also a potential economic crisis that could upend economies and foreign relations around the globe. If too many are left structurally unemployable, the implications both inside and outside of China could be serious. Understanding the situation in China today is essential if we are to avoid a potential crisis of international proportions. This book is an urgent and timely call to action that should be read by economists, policymakers, the business community, and general readers alike.

Genres: China, Nonfiction, Economics, Politics, History, Political Science, Society

248 pages, Hardcover

Published October 12, 2020

Reviews

[Hadrian · Rating 4 out of 5]

In late November 2020, Xi Jinping announced the formal elimination of extreme poverty in China, with the last tens of millions with access to basic healthcare and education and with incomes above 4,000 yuan/year - or about USD $1.52 a day. While the threat of famine and mass deprivation is only a distant memory, Scott Rozelle, of Stanford, and Natalie Hell, a writer in the Bay area, discuss the vast gap between urban and rural standards of living, with implications on China's economic development and potentially its future stability.

Their fieldwork finds much to worry about. While many of the cities appear to have higher standards of living and educational achievement, this belies the problem of rural migrants in urban centers and the underfunded rural areas in general. While local and provincial leaders are eager to invest in transportation projects and open local schools to meet quotas, the quality of education provided is still lackluster. Only thirty percent of the workforce has even completed high school - likely due to the tuition fees being beyond what they can afford, and the lure of starting work immediately. Vocational schooling is also plagued by inadequate teachers and an out of date curriculum.

Even more worrisome are the problems of public health. Half of babies in rural areas are undernourished. Iron deficiency is also pervasive, up to 25% in some areas. Intestinal worms are still pervasive due to the use of fecal matter as fertilizer, and some school children simply cannot do their best in school -- because of a lack of eyeglasses. All of these combined lead to a vast rural population which falls behind the wealthier urban areas almost at birth, and may in turn be left behind in the demands of the global economy. This gap might have held even if children in rural areas could find grueling but sufficient manufacturing work. Now that in turn is moving out of China - to Vietnam, India, and so many other places eager to industrialize. With so many hundreds of millions in rural areas still at risk of falling behind, this may lead to a China permanently caught in the "middle income trap" - where income growth is stagnant at a specific level. Instead of South Korea or Taiwan, rural areas may more resemble those in Brazil or Turkey.

Addressing rural inequality is something that can be done, and, from the point of view of Chinese leadership, should be done. A stagnant China would drag down its trading partners, or it could become more unstable domestically - or, potentially, on the foreign stage as nationalism is used as a salve to replace lost expectations.

[Sam · Rating 5 out of 5]

I have been a scholar in the China field since the 70s and this might be the single most important and illuminating book I’ve read about China. “Must-read” is an overused adjective, but I don’t know what else to call it. The data it presents is both hugely important and largely unknown, even within China.

[East West Notes · Rating 5 out of 5]

Invisible China provides a stunning overview of economic, health and education policies in rural China. China may have one of the largest economies in the world, but it has one of the lowest levels of education. If low-skill work in construction and manufacturing slows or is replaced by automation technology, China’s emerging workforce won’t have the ability to adapt to different work or industries.

As part of the Rural Education Action Program (REAP), public health researchers, economists and education specialists from universities in both the US and China mass collected data from across China. It’s an extraordinary effort in a country where credible statistics can be difficult to come by, especially in the “poor, rural interior.” Overall, their rigorous research shows that the education and well being of rural Chinese children has not kept pace with the country’s swift development and rising wages. In fact, it’s unbelievably bad.

Many workers don’t know how to learn, even if they are given opportunities for advancement by their current employers. If China loses their competitive edge and cannot advance into high-value-added industries, the country will become stuck at this level – a ‘middle income trap.’

This trap could cause problems with investment rates, social stability and further divert funding away from education and towards policing and welfare support. Since rural families have historically been permitted to have more children than those in the cities, China now faces the alarming possibility that the vast majority of their future workforce is malnourished, socially neglected and under educated. Although China has an elite class of workers, such as business people, engineers and programmers, they are not strong enough to support the rest of the country with universal basic income. Alongside higher wages for low skilled workers, China is now leading the world in robotics technology and is the main global customer of the robotics which are replacing those low skilled workers.

Although the Chinese government has recently made moves to remedy this issue through reducing or abolishing school fees, improving access to textbooks and expanding vocational schools, there was no early investment in human capital or a well laid plan to transition the country from a manufacturing to an innovation-based economy. Unfortunately many of these problems started during the Cultural Revolution and were neglected by Deng Xiaoping. He is rightly credited with the economic miracle, but unfortunately mass education was not given priority. Now, the current leadership must implement policies that may not show positive results for a generation. It’s terribly difficult to implement policies that take so long for results. It is even more difficult if those policies must be implemented by rural leadership who feel that the benefits of those policies will only go to urban areas. According to the authors, upgrading the education level of the entire labour force would take 45 years.

Each chapter provides comparative research to other countries which have fallen into or avoided the middle income trap. Thankfully, they include many simple graphs and charts to explain their economic theories. Although they recognise the difficulty in comparing China to a much smaller country, such as Ireland, it’s incredibly useful for understanding what steps could be taken now to improve the situation of China’s children. Outlining how Mexico’s growth stalled and resulted in widespread criminal activity and economic stagnation reveals how important it is to take this problem seriously. China’s rural and migrant workers are ‘invisible,’ but their welfare could impact the country’s elite and global economic stability. The authors also explain why vocational schools in Germany have been so incredibly successful, while those in China have been, for the most part, an expensive disaster. They certainly don’t discount differences in economic history or local culture, but this comparative research does show how China could reshape their policies to mimic the success of South Korea and avoid the social upheaval of Mexico.

I came to this book with some background knowledge. I conducted research at a Shanghai university on the hukou system, social capital, and schools for internal migrant children. I also volunteered at migrant schools in Shanghai. The hukou system is a household registration system which divides Chinese citizens into agricultural and non-agricultural residency status. However, the problems and solutions in this book require no background knowledge in China or economics. If anything, the summaries of their arguments in each closing section are a bit too long. That may be due to their fears that even those living in China might not be able to recognise this looming problem in a population that remains invisible and separate to the elite of the mega cities.

The hukou categories shape where the individual and their family can live, work, or study and what benefits or services they can receive. More than 70% of China’s children have rural status. Many internal migrant parents face a difficult choice of staying in their rural hometowns in poverty, leaving their children behind in the care of others, or bringing their children to cities where they will be unable to access proper health and education services. Even parents who are able to keep their children in local schools might find that corruption and incompetence leaves their children far behind urban children.

The human suffering outlined in these chapters was almost impossible to read without setting the book down for a moment. Many of the recommended actions and policies are surely within the ability of the Chinese government, but they describe how education in China is fairly decentralised. Although this situation was only briefly described, higher levels of government could take harsh action against those unscrupulous individuals in rural areas who set up Potemkin schools. These “schools” take education funding meant for China’s poorest students but have no teachers or students. Each chapter includes a very human story, such as descriptions of job fairs, adult workers struggling without general education skills, young students unable to see the blackboard because their caretakers think glasses will ruin their eyes, children too weak to play because of anaemia and worms, young girls blocked by their families from taking parasite-killing medication in case it harms their fertility, young men looking into bride kidnapping as a source of income and babies failing intelligence tests before they are anywhere near a school. It is a moving and sobering read, but not without hope. Every section describes crushing poverty, ignorance and corruption, but the authors provide just as many solutions.

There was only one section that I wish the authors had expanded on. In describing how the hukou system prevents rural children from attending urban schools and hospitals, the solution was to abolish the system and to implement policies similar to Taiwan. Why the hukou system is still in use or what justification the government provides for it was not presented and this leaves the reader wondering how lifting these restrictions would work in practice. Would urban schools and hospitals maintain their quality if class sizes and hospital waiting times skyrocketed? Unfortunately this policy recommendation was a little thin compared to more pragmatic steps of providing parenting classes and opticians. That said, I’m sure other texts have studied the hukou system in full and overall this is an important book that provides a clear call to action.

The first challenge this book faces is convincing the reader and government authorities that China’s children are indeed suffering terribly. This is hard to imagine for those who associate Chinese cities with top international education rankings and tiger mothers. For those travelling by plane or high speed train across China’s rural areas, it’s difficult to see that many of China’s children are suffering from health problems (especially invisible health problems), social isolation and a lack of education. Despite the best efforts of the government to provide funding, many families face an issue with the opportunity cost of staying in school. Many families know that their children are not receiving a good education in the their local schools and could make a small fortune by dropping out of school to work in construction, even if it means lying about their age. China has one of the highest male-female sex imbalances in the world due to sex-selective abortions. If there is an economic downturn, many young men who are unable to find work or partners may turn to gang activity and organised crime. The authors take pains here to explain that employment also provides self-respect and a sense of connection to the community. The second challenge for this book is that it may have trouble distinguishing itself from the numerous other books out there arguing that China isn’t as great as everyone thinks. This would be a shame, as Invisible China is based on careful research and makes persuasive policy arguments for improving the situation of Chinese children and avoiding the middle income trap.

This book was provided by the publisher for review.

[Dylan · Rating 3 out of 5]

I speed read this book, and got a fair bit out of it. The prose allows for rapid assimilation: it’s plain and straightforward, predicated on dominant models and “common sense.” In other words, it’s a book that works unproblematicly with China as a nation, China’s “national interests,” and the idea that states are rationally pursuing policies that benefit “the nation.” Thus, a nation-state like China must grow its GDP, and this is called “development.” It’s a bit naive and more than a little dated, but there you have it: hegemonic ideas about “modernization.”

If one can swallow this framework, Rozelle does a pretty good job of showing why China’s lack of investment in “human capital” threatens to derail the PRCs growth. He makes a pretty convincing case that China’s education and healthcare are badly lagging, and that the country simply lacks the talent make a big move into a post-industrial economy. How, he asks, can China follow in the footsteps of Taiwan or South Korea with such a mass of poorly educated people?

It’s a good argument, though I couldn’t help but long for opposing positions. The Chinese government is surely aware of the middle-income trap, and is surely taking steps to avoid it. The Belt and Road project is clearly one such attempt. Empires, after all, play by different rules. Perhaps Rozelle shouldn’t be comparing the PRC to Taiwan, but to the UK or the USA. Those countries got rich, not because of advanced human capital, so much as by their ability to produce uneven development at home and abroad.

[Claire]

I think this book is essential to understanding contemporary + future China. The reality of education in China feels entirely obscured to those with an American perspective (because of course our discourse is focused on the high-level research output from the country’s top universities, the gaokao system, etc), and in this sense, the book’s topic is indeed invisible; high school is still not mandatory in China, and the country’s education levels are entirely incommensurate both with its economic status and with other countries.

It’s very easy to read, in large part because of the huge amount of repetition and self-summary.

[Chris Jaffe · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is a very good book about an overlooked issue in modern China (and the world overall, given China's international prominence).

Basically, the authors fear that China is about to fall into the middle-income trap. That's when a small-income nation improves their economy to the next level, but has trouble levelling up again, and instead falls back. The classic method for low-income nations to rise up is by using their low-cost labor to do manufacturing. China has, of course, done tons of that in the last 30 years. But that sets up the trap. When a nation has enough success in manufacturing, it brings more money in, and the added prospeity and improved standards of living means that labor isn't as cheap there as it once was. Now, maybe a company can make goods in a different place instead. This has started to happen, as recent years have seen companies pull out of China, and China start to experience this already, with more laid off workers stuck back home with nothing to do.

This can be dangerous because a lot of unemployed or underemployed young men can lead to trouble, such as crime and gangs. It's doubly troublesome for China because the government has relied on prosperity as one of its two main pillars to legitimize its regime. If that falters, it's only left wtih the other pillar: Chinese nationalism. And if China's government can only justify itself that way, that can lead to war with neighbors over things like the South China Sea. Even if it doesn't lead to war, the middle income trap can slow up China's economy severely -and that can slow up the world economy as well.

Oh, most countries that fall into thid middle income level fall into this trap. For every South Korea that keeps advancing, there are multiple Brazils that don't.

There is a way out of this trap: invest in your population. Make sure they are better skilled and educated. That's how South Korea and Taiwan avoided it and how Brazil and Mexico didn't. China right now? It doesn't look good. Oh, the surface seems good with all them big cities with wonderful schools -but the book title points out a key thing: there's a huge urban-rural divide. And most Chinese kids are in rural areas. Schools there are bad. They only recently made 8 years schooling mandated. High schools still cost money. The price has gone down, but it still costs more than many can afford. The level of high school education in China overall is nowhere near where it needs to be to avoid the trap.

And rural China has invisible problems as well. Parasitic worms are endemic, and folk wisdom says they aren't a big deal (even though they are). Many kids have iron-deficiency amenia. Lastly, eyeglasses basically don't exist for rural kids who need it. Added together, students are unable and do well in school, leading to most kids to score so badly on standardized tests that they may never be able to be productive at the next level of the economy. Also, there are industrial schools to teach those skills, but they are often a total waste of time and horrible. Even when they are good, Rozelle argues that's the wrong approach. Team someone one particular skill, and look out when it becomes obselete. (Imagine a generate taught how to repair VCRs).

Almost all the problems noted are being addressed. The government is improving them all, Rozelle notes. But it's too late for those already in the workforce - so what about them? And the improvement needed is so massive and so little time to do so that it's hard to see how it'll happen in time. The book doesn't want to sound too pessmistic, but it sure doesn't sound optimistic.

Fascinating book about an issue I didn't know much about.

[J · Rating 4 out of 5]

Interesting thesis and pretty easy to read, nice and quick and written for a general audience. That being said, I wanted a bit more depth -- the book was very repetitive, and really just made one or two points over and over again. Not to say that they weren't important points, but I felt like the (already short) book could have been about half as long if they just removed some of the many repetitive sections.

Overall, it was fine. It's so short that it's worth checking out, or honestly you could just read the final chapter and get an idea of the whole premise. The evidence they use to back up the claims felt somewhat narrow, since it was a combination of anecdote and their own studies, but still narrowish studies in a country as large and complex as China.

I guess the thing that I always wonder when people write things like this, laying out supposedly transformational policy proposals at extremely low costs, is why hasn't this happened already? I didn't find the book satisfactorily answered that question. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but I'm just a bit skeptical things are as simple as they suggest.

[Tam · Rating 4 out of 5]

A great quick read. The book is very concise and intelligible.

The main argument is such that China has been growing in such a great speed that the country's human capital is not yet able to catch up, creating a huge challenge to keep China away from the "middle income trap."

However, I think the main contribution is the extensive field works that the researchers did for decades in China, involving collecting and establishing important statistics on child development and primary and secondary education, as well as running programs with RCT to really produce reliable results.

Maybe you do not buy the causation of human capital on economic development story, yet I think just the sheer humane goals of improving the basic lives of rural dwellers are worthy of pursuing, in China or anywhere else in the world.

[Alex · Rating 5 out of 5]

Best book on China I've read this year. Provides necessary clarity on the "urban-rural divide" in China that gets thrown around a lot without much background. The writing is also incredibly clear and never esoteric.

[Koen Maegherman · Rating 4 out of 5]

The book is remarkable in a tsunami of books that praise the Chinese economic achievement and technological advancements. Focus is the challenges that China faces to avoid the so called middle income trap. The main concern is on rural (hence of invisible) China: children health is undermining decent development, the school system (from infrastructure to teachers) needs improvements,....

[Calvin Cheung · Rating 4 out of 5]

Authors Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell are academic researchers and members of Stanford’s Rural Education Action Program (REAP), which focuses on improving rural Chinese education and health.

‘Invisible China’ is the culmination of decades of research in the field. The book begins with a macroeconomic discussion on China’s transition from a poor to middle-income country. The authors express their fear that China and its under educated workforce may fall into a ‘middle-income trap’ with wages and automation steadily rising. The once dependable employment for low-skill factory work is rapidly dwindling, leaving millions of rural Chinese people with no jobs and exiguous social mobility.

The ‘Invisible China’ is a reference to the overlooked or undermined rural population, and the authors illustrate the stark social inequalities causing urban-rural divide. Each subsequent chapter unravels issues of increasing deepness until the root cause of a potentially impending economic crisis is unearthed.

A recurring message that the authors keep stressing is a dire and urgent need to invest in human capital as opposed to infrastructure. After all, what good are drastically improved conditions at educational facilities when student performance is not improving? How can kids learn anything when they have intestinal worms sapping their energy?

What I liked most about the book is that the authors don’t aim to criticize. Rather, they provide a factual overview of the issues, offer realistic solutions (including even estimated costs!), and explain what activities REAP has been involved in.

A concise and easy-to-read summary, ‘Invisible China’ is a desperate exhortation for poverty alleviation and rural education reform, for a floundering Chinese economy is not just detrimental to China, but indeed to the world.

[Qian · Rating 4 out of 5]

Invisible China was written by Prof. Rozelle and Natalie Hell , two fluent Chinese speakers and scholars from Stanford University. The book describes the educational, healthcare, and economic challenges in today's rural areas of China. I like the book’s name; the land is invisible for Western audiences (probably to some China urban dwellers too) since it’s scarcely reported as there are many eye-catching and mind-blowing things to write in China such as high-speed railways, elite education, or electronic payment.

The book resonates with me, not only because I was born and raised there, but also because unlike most of the western media, the author didn't finger-pointing or try to embarrass the incumbent by criticizing unwise decisions that cripple the country. Instead, he describes objectively what problems his research team has found out during years of studies and outlined actionable measures for the local authorities to make things right.

When poring over his book, I feel his concerns and deep love for Chinese people. I want to thank him for his effort in helping China, possibly for the rest of the world too; just as he said, when China starts to falter, its impacts are beyond its border.

[Alexander Eckinger · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is thought-provoking and has new-to-me ideas regarding the middle income trap, China, and public education in China. Yet for what it contained, it was too long. For much of the book it felt like the author was writing for the sake of elongating the book. It was repetitive and was the opposite of informationally dense. However, this makes the prose really light and easy to read which could be a good thing if that's what you're looking for.

All things considered, this is a short and generally enjoyable read. I would definitely recommend this if you have an interest in the topic (ie I wouldn't recommend this unprompted). It is unlike anything else I have read about China, and addresses issues that I think are highly relevant to any understanding of Chinese growth and its present moment. There's a lot of undue pessimism about China, in my opinion, but this book is a more nuanced take on the matter.

[Echo XIE · Rating 5 out of 5]

My first book in 2022. So far so good.
This book is about the middle-income trap, the urban-rural divide in China and how that will impact the country's development. The comparison between kids in rural and urban China is startling. The author concludes that to avoid the middle-income trap, China needs to invest in both of its uneducated adults and youth and toddlers as soon as possible.

At the end of this book, the author gives three scenarios as the future he can predict for China. I feel the worse-case scenario is highly likely, which is, China's vocational education is less successful and it takes years, if not decades, to transition to a free twelve-year education system. Then, the country will find itself at the beginning of a vicious downward spiral. If that is the case, what does it mean for the world of a falling China?

[Orlaith · Rating 3 out of 5]

The topic and message is shocking, and needs to be conveyed to the powers that be so that remedies can be taken, for the sake of everyone, not just those in need of help - if simple steps to improve infant and childhood nutrition could raise the cognitive abilities of so many people, all of society would benefit; there would be less Brexits, less Trumps, less pandemic-deniers or vaccine-haters. More people capable of thinking logically and making informed decisions. How much better our world would be.

Unfortunately, there is far too much repetition in this book, to a degree that I was skipping through pages out of frustration at seeing the same information for a third or fourth time. It needs a good editor to go through it from end to end and remove all this superfluousness.

[Matthijs · Rating 2 out of 5]

Don't believe the high ratings. My reviews on this platform are usually only directed at the content of the books, but in this case, I'd like to start by pointing out how the ratings for this warning on the "urban-rural divide" are a complete sham. Gullible readers? Fellow development economists, who equally like to play loose and fast with data? Scott Rozelle's many co-authors from publications he's listed in? Whatever the reason, this book is undeserving of the level of praise its rating would infer.

Adding notes when reading books on a Kindle device is generally annoying and extremely time-consuming, but I couldn't help myself jotting down my exasperated thoughts from page to page while reading Scott Rozelle's Invisible China. There is so much scientifically 'wrong' in this book, it's simply staggering and highly ironic given the author's appeal for more and 'better' education.

The gist of it is this:

- Rozelle's use of data throughout the book is highly, highly problematic. Definitions of what constitutes education are not fixed but fluid throughout, Rozelle solely focuses on the poorest Chinese provinces for his 'rural' data but doesn't look at intra-province data for his 'urban-rural' divide, and Rozelle repeatedly lays down conclusions based on dated numbers even though he points out how quickly those numbers have been able to change within the span of just a decade. Publishing this in late 2020, while the most recent data is largely derived from 2015 and before, means that 5 (!) years of reform and changes are NOT accounted for, even though rural high school attainment figures, for example, were able to DOUBLE from around 40% to 80% between 2005-2015.

Given that education attainment figures in general for the working population dataset are still heavily influenced, moreover, because of the (post-)Cultural Revolution-bred cohort of workers, who will in the next few years quickly drop out from this dataset, Rozelle's "major" conclusions based on comparisons between China and other developing and developed economies, would surely be outdated within a very short timeframe.

- Rozelle manipulates data. A major claim in the book is how roughly two-thirds of China's young people are rural young with a rural hukou, having to study in rural settings. The hukou system has been extensively discussed for decades among China scholars, and anyone would know how its official numbers in no way adequately represent the actual situation on the ground. Rozelle doesn't even slightly acknowledge how most likely a lot LESS of those 70% rural hukou-wielding young people actually live in urban settings and might very well have access to urban schooling. How could he, for his whole argument rests on the assumption that the urban-rural divide is SO shocking that it will be unrepairable in the near future.

- Rozelle's entire book hinges on accepting the validity of the "middle-income country trap". What is actually SHOCKING in this book, is how poorly this theory is being supported and outlined by Rozelle while the book itself is rather short and extremely repetitive. I, for one, am not at all convinced by it. Even if more convincing arguments would have been presented in favor of it, however, any development economist worth his/her grain of salt would have to acknowledge that sociopolitical reasons have likely an equal if not greater role to play in bridging the gap between a middle and high-income country status.

- Rozelle suffers from main character syndrome. For all this talk of "Rozelle" up till now in this review, one would be shocked to find out this is actually supposedly the work of two scholars. One would be easily fooled, however, given the preponderance of the word "I", and the fact that the reader keeps on being told how all the findings of this book are shockingly unknown to anyone else studying China. Luckily, Rozelle is here to uncover and show what tens of thousands of respected China scholars have been unable to discover for themselves.

[Jarno Mehtiö · Rating 5 out of 5]

Kirja Kiinan tulevista ongelmista. Lyhyt ja erinomainen luettava. Analyysi vakuutti minut. Se on toki helppoa.

Onko Kiinan koulutuspolitiikka väärässä? Onko sitä mahdollista enää korjata? Uhkaako Kiinaa Middle Income Trap?

Kiinassa ei ole huolehdittu riittävästi väestönsä koulutuksesta. Suuren enemmistön koulutuksesta. Riittääkö nykyinen ja siihen tehdyt korjaukset siirtämään Kiinan seuraavalle tasolle, jossa ei enää riitä halpa työvoima?

Esimerkkinä siirtymässä epäonnistumisesta on Meksiko. Meksikossa oli paljon valmistavaa teollisuutta, joka nosti elintasoa. Mutta siellä ei huolehdittu väestön toisen asteen koulutuksesta. Kun työvoimaresurssit oli käytetty ja palkkojen pitäisi alkaa nousta (koska ei ollut enää työväestöä, jota saisi halvalla töihin), tehtaat lähtevät halvemman työvoiman perässä muualle. Eikä Meksikolla ollut tarjota osaavaa työvoimaa muunlaiselle työlle. Tehtaiden lähtemisen kanssa epävirallinen sektori nousee ja vie valtion verotuloja ja on yksilölle huonompi. Tämän myötä rikollisuus alkaa näyttää houkuttelevampana vaihtoehtona.

Kiinan kasvu ja työpaikkojen kasvu ovat kulkeneet yhtä jalkaa. Kaupunkiväestö on lisääntynyt 350 miljoonalla. Nyt kirjoittajan mukaan on kuitenkin havaittavissa Kiinan kasvun hidastumista, kun kysyntä heidän työvoimalle vähenee. Jotta ongelmaa ei olisi, olisi pitänyt kohdentaa koulutusta maaseudulle ja laajemmin väestöön, ei vain kaupunkiin ja pienelle eliitille (vaikka numerot absoluuttisesti ovat isoja, niin on absoluuttinen väestön lukumääräkin).

Miten välttää middle income trap? Eri keinoja. Portugali, Espanja ja Kreikka välttivät sen EU:n avustuksella. Koreassa ja Taiwanissa on investoitu hyvissä ajoin toisen asteen koulutukseen. Siihen pitää investoida jo silloin, kun tehdastyö vetää ja hommat sujuu. Koska kun sen tarve on, ollaan jo myöhässä. Koulutus vie aikaa. Tässä ei puhuta muutoskoulutuksesta ja aikuiskoulutustuesta. Kiinassa 70% väestöstä oli vailla toisen asteen koulutusta 2015.

Laajoja syitä maaseudun ja täten koko Kiinan ongelmille on paljon. Tiukka jako asuinpaikkoihin. Desentralisaatio, jossa maaseutu ei saa hyötyä investoinneistaan vaan kiitos ja hyöty valuvat muualle. Lyhyen tähtäimen kasvu vie pitkän tähtäimen kehityksen edelle. Ja politrukkien työpaikat ovat kiinni lyhyestä, eivät pitkästä tähtäimestä.

Kiinassa olisi nykyään rahaa ja yrittäjiä sekä yrityksiä. Mutta onko näille työvoimaa? Koulutusta on lisätty, mutta tasoerot maaseudun ja kaupungin välillä ovat valtavia. Ja väestö ei voi vapaasti valita asuinpaikkaansa, mikä estää tasoeron kaventumisen tätä kautta.

Mitä mahdollinen talouden hidastuminen tekee valtiolle, joka arvostaa ennen kaikkea yhteiskunnan vakautta?

Kiinan ongelmana ovat erityisesti olleet kolme näkymätöntä epidemiaa (ylempänä lueteltujen rakenteellisten ongelmien lisäksi). Laaja anemia, jota ei hoideta vaikka se olisi edullista. Silmälasit, joita ei tarjota, vaikka se olisi keskiedullista. Madot, joita ei hoideta, vaikka se olisi edullista. Esteenä näiden hoitamiselle ovat epätasa-arvo, tietämättömyys ja perinteet. Lisäksi toimet ihmisten koulutuksen parantamiselle pitää aloitta varhain, jo ennen kolmatta ikävuotta. Ja perinteisesti Kiinassa valtaosaa lapsista hoitavat isovanhemmat, jotka eivät tiedä paremmasta. EI perinteiseen kiinalaiseen kasvatukseen kuulu lapsen kanssa leikkiminen, virikkeiden tarjoaminen ja höpöttely. Toki tätä tapahtuu osittain, mutta hyvän varhaiskasvatuksen pitäisi koskea koko väestöä, ei pientä osaa.

Lopuksi tarjotaan 3 skenaariota. Ensimmäinen on, että Kiina oppii ja pärjää. Toisessa Kiinan siirtymä toisen asteen koulutukseen on liian hidas. Tällöin mahdollisuus romahtaa on 50/50. Kolmannessa koulutustason nosto ei onnistu ja talous romahtaa. Neljäs liittyy Kiinan valtavuuteen. Se on niin iso talous, ettei sen kokoisesta ole aiempaa kokemusta. Repiikö sen kanin hatusta?

Toki kirjaa lukiessa nousee kysymys, voiko jokainen maa nousta? Ja tähän liittyen ajankohtaisesti, miten maat nousevat niin, että maapallo ei painu pinnan alle samalle.

[Nzcgzmt · Rating 4 out of 5]

Rozelle is the architect of the Rural Education Achievement Program (“REAP”). This is a very good summary of his years of research in rural China.

While the current consensus seems to be that China - like other East Asian countries - has done a terrific job in education and the country is well positioned to compete in prime time. Rozelle, however, points out the opposite. Based on the most recent census (2020), China’s high school attainment rate is only 30%. Out of curiosity, I checked the 2010 census and there was only marginal improvement. This is well below other developed countries. Critically, no country with a high school attainment rate of less than 50% has been able to escape the Middle Income Trap. In fact, all large emerging market countries, from Mexico to Brazil, are firmly in the trap. The mechanism is simple - higher paying jobs (typically white collar jobs) require a higher level of education; a limited amount of schooling confines people to manual jobs, typically in farming and factories. When most of the population do not have a high school degree, naturally their income potential will be limited.

Rozelle, through extensive on the ground research, points out that the achievement gap is fundamentally the division between rural and urban. It is shocking that over 50% of the rural children are cognitively challenged (the worldwide baseline is 16%). They also drop out of schools much more frequently than urban children.

There are several factors that contribute to the gap:

1) Improper early childhood education (0-3 years old). Parents need to interact with their babies constantly to stimulate cognitive growth. This style of parenting is not popular in rural China. Once this golden period is lost, it is very hard for the child to catch up later.

2) The prevalence of Iron deficient Anemia. This has contributed to cognitive delays throughout childhood. The remedy is simple, yet there is a lack of awareness.

3) The endemic of intestinal worms, especially in South China. The aversion to deworming medicine has exacerbated the problems.

4) Lack of government funding in education, especially the first 12 years. This has changed since the 2000s. But since the payback period for education is 20+ years, there is still a large undereducated population when the economy transitions out of factory jobs.

5) Low quality vocational high school programs. Many are purely scams to attract government funding. Students learn nothing, and they are dropping out at a very high rate.

6) The outdated Hukou system that permanently traps rural labor to their birthplace.

When China's economy transitions, these undereducated people will struggle to find employment. Unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, contributes to a host of issues such as organized crime. Critically, the ossified class division will contribute to instabilities of the nation state.

Rozelle proposes several policy changes for governments in emerging markets. Overall, this is a sobering account of the status of education in rural China. Rozelle sheds light on issues that are overlooked by governments across the world - indeed, even in developed countries education is oftentimes underfunded, because of the misalignment in incentives (long term investments typically do not align well with short office terms of politicians).

I took one star off because the book could’ve been tighter. For example, the Conclusion chapter - 30 pages long - mostly repeated ideas from earlier chapters. But I think it is a very informative book.

[Solomon Bloch · Rating 5 out of 5]

A must read for the China curious. In short: China is running headfirst into the "middle income trap" (a phrase banned by the CCP in official discourse) and almost certainly isn't preparing for it as they should. The middle income trap refers to the countries like Mexico, Brazil or Thailand that have industrialized, then failed to make the final push into become a rich country, like Germany, America, England. Rozelle separates out those in the trap from "the graduates" who have pulled themselves out such as Taiwan, South Korea, or Ireland. The natural question is therefore, what is the trap and how do you escape from it?

The trap is: once you've reached middle income status, you've employed your former farmers in factories, and built a sufficient amount of infrastructure, your economy needs to swap into a higher value added economy. A higher value added economy implies more skills are needed by your average worker, more ability to deal with complicated multi factorial problems, and most importantly learn to solve new issues as they arise. This sort of work requires some proper education.

So, you'll say, China's education is good, right? The Chinese people in our world are smart, technical, educated. Those Chinese, the ones you and I know, are predominantly from the visible China. The invisible is their massive rural population which represents around 477 MILLION people today. They have a government designation from birth, Hukou, wherein you're stamped 'urban' or 'rural.' Those who are 'rural' can't enjoy education in cities, they struggle to access healthcare in cities. The Chinese are trying to fix the issue, they understand education is important, but their decentralized education system is simply not coming online fast enough, or quality enough. It takes 45 years, generally the rule is, to educate yourself out of this middle income trap. China is way behind. Way way behind.

Reasons start at birth with status, but alongside that with parenting. Babies are understimulated, failing the Bayley test (an IQ test for babies, in short) ~50%, compared to the average rich country of ~15%. Babies in urban China fail at even lower rates than an average rich country. They are malnourished, lacking iron and B12. They have 'untreated myopia' (aka, they need glasses). These are afflictions that can't be tolerated if one wants to educate their population out of the trap, the truth is these kids don't stand a chance.

So what's to be done? Educate and pray. They will have difficult times ahead. Companies have been moving away from China as a manufacturing center for quite awhile, and it just continues as Chinese wages rise. But China is capable of economic miracles, and perhaps one is in the cards for them, as unlikely as it seems. Either way, we should hope for China to remain strong, because an economic collapse there would lead to consequences in a significant portion of the world. This book is a great read, highly recommend.

[Simon Fox · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book makes my stomach churn to think of the future of the people of the worlds second largest economy, and largest (for now) nation.

Scott Rozelle crafts a convincing narrative of a hidden chink in China's inevitable rise. I have always found that unqualified narrative unconvincing for demographic and political reasons, but this book took me from being unconvinced of the nations future as a global hegemon to being actively worried for it. This is not to say that China is not or will not be powerful, just that the welfare of the Chinese individual will be significantly worse than I previously expected and that China's economic trajectory is much worse than may be assumed when looking at exclusively at economic data.

The Chinese work force is less educated then any other middle income nation and suffers from a number of health and political drawbacks. Uncorrected vision, anemia, intestinal worms, and unstimulated babies all threaten the success of the insufficient actions Beijing has belatedly taken. That is not to say that these actions are not spectacular, just that much more, on issues barely acknowledged, is needed. All of these issues are concentrated in impoverished rural China, which creates further barriers to success such as the nonsensical Hukou system and an overly decentralized education system. We are witnessing today a calamity of lost minds and futures in China, made all the more tragic by the simplicity of the solutions for many of these issues.

Though not directly talked about these issues are compounded by China's rapidly aging population. The vast majority of babies aren't born in comparatively wealthy cities, with their well educated elite and good school systems. The Children that win international contests. But in the rural areas of China. This means that China's already declining work force will be made up predominantly by workers from rural areas lacking sufficient skills to succeed in a modern economy.

To put it another way, it looks like China has gotten old before it has gotten rich or smart. China is demographically where Japan was in the 90's, but with a population a fraction as educated and wealthy as Japan was then.

China is, of course, taking actions to combat these problems, but in my, and the authors, opinions, the best they can do is to limit some of the worst consequences. Neither AI nor the flagging Belt and Road initiative, nor China's overdeveloped police state can solve how old and uneducated China is becoming.

The book gets repetitive, but is well worth a read.

[Rebecca · Rating 5 out of 5]

- I loved this book so much! I love books that are easy to read and comprehend but also teach me a lot
- Also I love when books combine anecdotes with thorough research
- I love that this book takes a common notion (i.e., China's dominance in education, re: PISA and Confucius and tiger parenting) but disaggregates the population and looks at the urban vs. rural divide

Loose summary that I want to remember:
- ~70% of China's children are born in rural areas, where the quality of education and health is lacking compared to urban areas (also perpetuated by hukou system)
- This is important for everyone (not just people in China), since China's the second biggest economy in the world (by GDP) and the top trading partner to more than 120 countries
- Interesting to think about vocational schools and how they're meant for people who can't continue onto high school or who don't have the best grades (a little similar to Kenya where people kinda look down on vocational schools but so different from US where apprenticeships and vocational training is becoming more popular now that people are questioning the value of college more)
- But the quality of these vocational schools is usually bad, people aren't being taught relevant skills (some people being taught how to use an abacus), and many people aren't doing apprenticeships in relevant fields or fields that you don't need much education for
- Issue of apprenticeships not having enough academic skills, but rife with job-specific skills that aren't transferrable (i.e., not teaching students how to learn)
- Problem of health issues, especially anemia, myopia, and intestinal worms; parents and grandparents (usually the caretakers of the children) not having the education on how to mitigate these, since China developed too rapidly and people didn't have the training (but easy solutions like pills in school and eye screenings)
- Also importance of how infants are being treated -- because a lot of that affects kids' intelligence later on; kids need stimulation and for parents to talk to them, so that the kids can learn and mirror behavior (again the issue of China developing too rapidly so that rural parents might not have the knowledge of this)

This is the best book that I've read this year, and I feel so motivated and curious to keep thinking about 1) how different countries are viewing vocational training and 2) how education and investing in human capital can propel economic mobility on an individual level and economic growth on a country-level

[Carlos Flores Komatsu · Rating 3 out of 5]

Scott Rozelle and Natalie Hell's Invisible China discusses the rural-urban divide and the many concerns and implications that come along with the issue. Rozelle, someone who has done years of work and research in China, provides a humanistic and "real" approach to laying out the main issues in today's (or at least 5-10 years ago) China by providing anecdotal evidence of local's experience in rural China, and later supporting these claims through his own or other's research on the topic.

As someone interested in the topic, the book only scratches the surface of the issues and solutions proposed by the authors. Furthermore, the authors address the issues at hand, but only briefly mention previous and current policies proposed by the Chinese government that might address such issues.

Furthermore, some statistics the authors cite that note the gap in education between China and other countries are outdated and portray a distorted picture of today's educational outcomes in China. An example of this is the OECD country comparison for educational attainment chart, which shows data from 2005, before China implemented the 9-year free compulsory education policy across rural China.

The authors mention further liberalization of the Hukou system as a policy solution for labor misallocation and dealing with the separation between parents and kids, as parents work in the bigger cities while the kids stay in their rural hometowns. This is an interesting and highly debated topic in China, and the Chinese government has already taken action to gradually liberalize the Hukou system. Dedicating a chapter and talking about how such liberalization can aid in educational outcomes at greater detail would make this book more interesting and complete.

Lastly, although mentioned at the end of the book, comparing China to Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan seems somewhat simplistic. Furthermore, although stated that this book is not meant to sound alarmist, I do believe it continues to make statements that are fairly alarmist. Stating that a plausible scenario of China in its current state will lead to economic downfall and crime levels similar to those of Mexico seems out of touch and exaggerated.

[Yudhister]

Pretty good. Made me think, and Rozelle's unique perspective (economist who's spent 30+ years on the ground) adds an authentic flavor to the book.

He claims that the existential threat to China's potential future growth and success is a lack of human capital: specifically, that systemic factors hinder rural Chinese children's ability to participate effectively in the service-based, advanced economy of the 21st century, and that fixing this issue is imperative so that China does not fall into the middle income trap.

In a 2004 article in Foreign Affairs, political scientist Geoffrey Garrett shared a startling observation. He looked at the history of recent economic development and noticed that while rich countries were continuing to do well and many poor countries were achieving strong growth rates, the countries in the middle of the global income spectrum were growing more slowly and less successfully than anyone else.

In a report that made ripples throughout the development world, economists at the World Bank demonstrated the full extent of the problem. The report showed that out of 101 countries that were middle income in 1960, only thirteen had made it to high-income status by 2008. The rest remained stuck or even ended the fifty years poorer than before.

The middle income trap is the stagnation developing countries face when their average citizen reaches a "middle income." An easy way for developing countries to rapidly grow their economies is to accept industrialization and foreign direct investment, shifting to a manufacturing economy reminiscent of Western nations in the 1890s. However, Rozelle makes the argument that to then shift from a middle income to high income country requires an educated populace, and the middle-income countries which have failed to continue their economic growth did not appropriately invest in the education of their citizenry.

But with a bit of historical data, another trend emerges that is far more relevant to the question at hand: the very small number of countries that have made it out of middle-income status in recent decades—the graduates—all have very high levels of high school education. Even more surprising, they’ve had those high levels for decades. In particular, back when they were still middle income, the graduates (places like South Korea, Taiwan, and Ireland) all had high school attainment rates comparable to those of the rich countries.

China is not appropriately investing in the necessary amounts of education to avoid the middle income trap. While they may have the necessary innovation, all the Baidus, Tencents, and Bytedances in the world wouldn't fix the systemic issue of having nearly 70% of its population without a high school education unable to participate in the high-skilled, high-paid industries that characterize high-income countries.

Rural Chinese mainly work low-skilled manufacturing jobs, or jobs which don't require a high school education. This was fine, until rising wages in mainland China started pushing manufacturing jobs overseas, leaving hundreds of thousands, if not millions of workers unemployed. Throughout the book, Rozelle includes telling anecdotes of workers who lost their job and couldn't get a new one because they didn't have the required skillset.

...We fell into conversation with one man in particular. Mr. Wang was about thirty-five and had recently been laid off from his job of eighteen years as an electrician.

As we watched, Mr. Wang gamely sidled up to the first booth, which represented a bank. The man running the booth, a human resources staff member, shook his hand and asked him to read a short page of text and comment on what he understood. Mr. Wang stared hard at the piece of paper, trying to force the characters into an order he could understand. He knew all the words and could read them aloud, but many of the terms were over his head. He kept getting confused by the logic of the sentences. For several minutes he stared at it, trying to make sense of what he was seeing. At first the man running the booth was patient and seemed sympathetic, but gradually the bank representative lost interest, turned back to his desk, and started looking around for workers who might be a better bet. After a few more minutes, Mr. Wang lowered his head with a sigh: “I’m sorry, I just can’t make sense of it.”

As it turns out, simply increasing access and/or mandating a high school education wouldn't be enough. The rural/urban divide in China runs deep. The opportunity & outcome differential comes not only from unequal access to education and other outgrowths of the *hukou* policy, but also from deep-seated systemic differences. 'Vocational' schooling is a joke:

Tao’s middle school teacher suggested he check out the new vocational high school that had recently opened across town... When he arrived on campus a week later, he found himself in an unfamiliar world. Whereas his middle school had been orderly and regimented, here chaos reigned. The older students were tough-looking, with tight jeans, black pleather jackets, and spiked hair. As he walked to class on his first day, there were no adults in sight. He passed groups of kids hanging out in the courtyard, smoking cigarettes and laughing.

Children who grow up in rural China suffer from three "invisible epidemics", as Rozelle calls them: anemia, uncorrected myopia, and parasitic intestinal worms. Iron-deficiency anemia has been linked to dramatic decreases in IQ, myopia (for obvious reasons) impedes learning ability, and worms almost literally sap the life force from their hosts. Luckily, cheap and safe interventions can fix these issues. Iron supplements, subsidized glasses, and cheap, common medicine could easily bring the health of a Chinese kid in the country to within striking distance of one in Beijing.

Perhaps a harder problem to fix is that of crucial stimulation of children during their formative developmental years. Rural parenting strategies are unequipped to give a child sufficient intellectual stimulation.

> In rural China, babies are systematically missing out on the mental stimulation they need. When we asked rural families if they ever talked to their babies, we were met with blank looks or bemused smiles. “Why would I talk to my baby?” one young mother responded, giggling into her hand. “She can’t talk back!”

Yet, this leads to delayed infant development, and the permanent stunting of a child's ability relative to their peers. Rural chinese babies score horribly on the Bayley test, while urban Chinese children score higher than average. This seems to be much of the issue.

For the sake of China and the world, Rozelle hopes that China will be able to fix its human capital crisis. He is somewhat bullish: the Chinese government is beginning to recognize that this is an issue, and some sane policies have been implemented. But he wants more to be done. Maybe China can pull off an economic miracle again, but this seems to be a major roadblock.

[Megan · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book and the research involved in publishing is staggering. I just can't even comprehend, and I am so appreciative of the authors and researchers who put the time into the book, into the people of China, into sharing the problems and then solutions for improving health, nutrition, and education in China. Instead of being hostile, other countries need to realize the impact of each individual country's economy on the rest of the world and try to find ways to improve the living conditions.

Having lived in China for years and worked in education, I now want to go back, but not to live in the urban areas. I want to give medicine to the families in rural areas. I want to provide glasses. I want to educate the children. I want to make a difference. I have never been so inspired to make a change as after reading this book, about the economy of another country. As a teacher, I know I can make a difference.

I took a lot of notes, and recommended this book to many people. These sentences from the book impacted me the most:

"That’s why I believe the single most important contributor to these children’s long-term success is a general education in academic skills (math, reading, language, and IT)."

"International health experts using the most conservative figures estimate that at this very moment at least 200 million children around the world are growing up without the basic nutrition and mental stimulation they need to reach their genetic potential."

"Of the fifteen to twenty million babies born every year in China, five million or more are in danger of becoming developmentally delayed for the rest of their lives."

"The focus on physical infrastructure at the expense of schooling may have been counterproductive: had there been less road building, the pace of development would have been slower, and China would have had more time to build up its human capital before it reached the current crisis."

[Laurie · Rating 4 out of 5]

A convincing, thorough and accessible book illustrating an issue that isn't given as much attention as it should be in the breathless commentary on China.

And, to his credit, it is compassionately written, which I think is important.

Highly recommended. It discusses the human capital dilemma that China faces among its 6-700 million rural labour force. As salaries rise, the construction boom slows, and low-skill labour moves overseas, the book argues that China has boxed itself into a corner by systemically underinvesting in senior high school education for its rural labour force (gaozhongxue) (only 30% of rural children graduate senior high school), leaving them underequipped to navigate transitions to new industries - or, the new industries will simply not hire enough to make up for the shortfall. He discusses public health challenges in rural China, the poor quality of vocational education schools, and systemic issues to their administration at the local level (i.e., decentralised, meaning there is little incentive for local-level administrators, whose performance is measured on short-term growth, to invest in education). He compares the situation convincingly with Brazil, Mexico and other countries facing similar situations, as opposed to Japan, Korea and Ireland, who invested high rates of senior high school education among their population decades before the transition.

As a result of these challenges, China faces a very tall order to try to navigate its way out of what seems an inevitable middle-income trap.

Highly recommended to read - you may be convinced, or you may contest, but either way, you will come out of it with greater insight than before. Which is more than you can say for a lot of China books.

[JJ · Rating 4 out of 5]

the author presents his studies on a few issues -- lack of eyeglasses, anemia, intestinal worms, lagging cognitive development -- which are (in line with the book's theme) difficult to physically detect but vastly consequential for the livelihoods of millions of young men and women. some of the statistics presented were very surprising to me. for instance, 70% of chinese are high school dropouts; one-third of rural children have uncorrected myopia; 50% of rural youth suffer from low IQ.

all of the problems have simple, cost-effective fixes, but if they aren't addressed soon, the author argues, china risks falling into the "middle-income trap" and going the way of Mexico. without raising human capital quickly, the nation won't be able to move up the value chain to high-tech services and manufacturing. factories will close, leading to loss of jobs and loss of hope, and in the worst case scenario, rising crime and instability.

really, really interesting book. with the media focused so much on glitzy skyscrapers, spacious shopping malls, and frenzied cultures of schooling in large cities, it's easy to be distracted from the immense backwardness of rural areas. his research is a great service to humanity. I can only hope that the CCP will listen.

[Shrike58 · Rating 4 out of 5]

My agenda in picking this book was as a check on Peter Zeihan's arguments that, as the globalized economy breaks down, the PRC has a particularly bleak future. While Rozelle is considerably more optimistic in terms of Beijing muddling through, he does deal with one of Zeihan's seeming blind spots in some detail; human capital. As Rozelle sees it, if Beijing wants to avoid the "middle-income" trap of a developing country flaming out after experiencing rapid growth, they are going to have to invest a great deal more in rural education and welfare. This is if Beijing wants to have the skilled workforce that can continue the long march towards China being an economy of the first rank.

Rozelle is quite convincing, but, like a lot of current-affairs books, the train might have already left the station. Rozelle was lucky to touch on COVID briefly in his conclusions, but events have been much worse than he might have foreseen, never mind the unraveling of the world economy; accelerated by the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war. As for his most negative projection, Rozelle notes the surplus population of Chinese men, many of whom are not well-educated enough to thrive in a transition to a changing economy, and sees a possible future rife with major organized crime and chronic civil disorder.

[The Bamboo Traveler · Rating 3 out of 5]

I picked this book up because Stephen Kotkin (Russian expert who also seems to think he's a China expert now) recommended it.

Lots of interesting and new info on China that I didn't know before.

Rural education is behind urban education--but then again isn't it the same in most countries, especially the United States?

Rozelle writes that Chinese children in rural areas suffer from anemia, poor eyesight, and lower cognitive skills as a result of backward childrearing. Some of this was surprising to me but other things not so much. My ex used to have the same ideas about raising young children that Rozelle describes many of these grandparents from rural China having. I used to watch my in-laws giving rice wine and beer to my 1-year-old nephew. They thought it was fun and funny. I was horrified especially given the fact that the father was an alcoholic.

The percentage of people in China with university degrees is lower than in developed countries. I wonder what percentage of those college graduates graduated with a STEM degree compared to the percentage that graduated with a STEM degree in the US?

Rozelle believes that the lack of educating enough people will prevent China from moving from a middle-income country to an upper-income country.

But...

the statistics that Rozelle cites come from 2005 when China began to implement compulsory and free education until grade 9. I'd like to see more up-to-date stats. Having spent most of my life teaching Chinese students from China, I'm not too worried about the data. My ex only had a high school degree and his math skills were way beyond that of any college-educated American.

I also want to add that the book is very repetitive.

3.5 stars.

[Kevin Fulton · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book provides a really good overview of the author's research on the rural urban divide in China.
The book focuses on nutrition, education, and family differences in China and suggests research informed solutions.
If you are interested in some of the below, this book will likely be worth your while.
• How China can avoid the middle income trap
• As of 2015, ~30% of China's workforce had a high school education.
• Wealth inequality: The average citizen in Shanghai makes 12x more than the average citizen in Gansu, this is 3x greater than the average gap between Manhattan and West Virginia
• 70% of China's children are rural
• 1/2 of rural babies are undernourished, and are developmentally delayed
• more than 40% of rural children have intestinal worms
• more than 30% of rural children have vision problems but no glasses
• vocational education buildings exist in rural China, but the actual education does not (This part of the book is fascinating)

However, Invisible China can get repetitive. I think it could have been edited better.

[Aditya Rane · Rating 4 out of 5]

I write this review during a big crackdown by Ci Jingping on chinese big tech companies and it is fascinating to note why this crackdown might have happened is something that we can learn, rather by unintended association, by reading this book.

China is slowing down, and as it does, it could bring the world down. There are massive structural issues within the country and its fast paced growth has not carried all the boats. What has been fascinating to note is how the author has a handle and insights on average Chinese person’s stories and lives.

It is clear that China has an uphill task to avoid the middle income trap, and I couldn’t help but feel that a nation is like a company, where unbridled growth needs to come alongwith growth of citizens (or employees). Anything else will only mean that the growth will not be sustainable.