Modi Mandate 2019

by Pradeep Bhandari

The 2019 general elections were set against the backdrop of unexpected alliances, with the staunchest of adversaries joining hands against one person, one party and one ideology. For the first time in the political history of India, there was the rise of a united opposition, which rendered the elections into an anti-Modi vs pro-Modi battle at the macro level. While demonetization and GST had not yet been wiped from public memory, the Pulwama attack and the Balakot air strikes just before the elections ignited a sense of nationalism. With this, even the most experienced political pundits were unable to predict the electoral outcome with certainty. It was a battle that could go either way. While we now know who won the electoral battle, the larger question is what caused this swing at a time when many had predicted the fall of Modi and the BJP. With dispatches from ground zero that unveil how the people at the ground level across the nation were thinking, this book offers an answer to that ‘why’ and also reveals the implications of the mandate for the future of Indian politics. ‘I recommend Modi Mandate 2019 as the best account you would get from anybody who has pursued the voters and gauged their intentions.’
—Meghnad Desai, Member, House of Lords, United Kingdom
‘Pradeep is a rare mix of academic rigour, tremendous hard work and impeccable field work—a combination that no other psephologist in India can match.’
—Arnab Goswami, Editor-in-Chief and Founder, Republic TV
‘Pradeep Bhandari’s book provides a rare analysis of the 2019 verdict. It is penned by the person who, since his arrival less than a decade ago, has changed the grammar of psephology and indeed represents a generational shift among psephologists who engage with India’s elections. This book offers the reader insights on both the mandate itself and the drivers of voter choice. It is a must-read for all who want to engage with the world’s largest democratic exercise.’
—Samir Saran, President, Observer Research Foundation

Genres: Politics, India

240 pages, Hardcover

First published March 1, 2020

Reviews

[Paritosh Pendse · Rating 4 out of 5]

 Makes it an easy reading owing to a conversational flavour.         .
Do not expect macro level psephological analysis on the post pol scenario like vote % , swings etc but derive the big picture from the constituency level analysis across the states
 
- Brings out insights on the demographic distribution among the states / constituencies
- In the back drop of the assembly election results in MP / CG and Rajasthan, it surfaces the more important factors that led to wins in each state like the Balakot strike in Raj / CG vs the Government schemes (Ujjwala/ Ayumhman) in MP
- Depicts the fear factor in Bengal and the way the current establishment operates 
- Helps give good glimpse of North eastern states and how the composition of the castes played a role
- How the BJP juggernaut was halted by BJD in Odisha? How the simultaneous polls (Lok Sabha / State Assembly) , dominance of Naveen Patnaik and voters mindset of “MLA First , MP later” influence the outcome of Loksabha elections
- How candidates mattered more in Punjab unlike otherparts of India where the consideration was that who will be the Prime Minister of the country
- How nationalistic sentiments played a role in Himachal Pradesh / Uttarakhand and something similar in Jharkhand where national issues took precedence
- How Kerala voted unlike the rest of India and also in Tamilnadu the general feeling was not in favour of NDA / AIADMK
- How Karnataka carried a pro-NDA sentiment and the bastions of Manya / Tumkur  were breached
- As regards Maharashtra, how the compulsions of alliance made the parties come together and the pro-development agenda taking the centre stage
- How Modi / Nitish swayed the developpment agenda and how the women voter were influenced by alocohol prohibition policy
- How the pro and anti opinion for division of state shaped the outcomes in the states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh
- How was the key stateof Uttar Pradesh retained given the challenge posed by the Mahagathbandhan. The transferability of votes between the two rival parties coming together was always a question.  
- How the Patidar agitation and the farmer distress was overcome to ensure a clean sweep in Gujarat
- Delhi was the summary of factors like aliance talks between AAP and Congress which resulted in a non-alliance, national issues taking centre stage, economic policies of the governement.
-  In J&K, did the PDP lose ground in the valley owing to alliance with BJP at atate level? Did BJP retain its base in the Jammu region?
 

[Gauri Bansal]

From being the one twitter account whom I used to follow (*I still do) for my exit polls, post poll and pre poll understanding(*to get an idea), to reading the book by the same person has been a sinusoidal curve for my reading journey.

Pradeep Bhandari has meticulously structured the book, state wise, region wise, and constituency wise in the respective order. He has probably done his best when it comes to writing a book to explain the political scenario in mentioned constituencies and explain to his readers a chapter from the political epoch. However, the book doesn't seem to any justice to its title, reading which I decided to read the book at the first place. The subtitle, Dispatches from the ground sounds more like a description of what is the mood of the nation with respect to what a might a community, a particular occupational group, a caste, a religious group, women might be expecting from their future government and how are they going to vote considering the past one.

Nevertheless, the book does mention a few excerpts from the ground taking hints and remembering instances from the ground as and when the author travels. Notwithstanding, a clear mention of how the author is traversing to collect dispatches from might make on excited to read the book but will surely find once they do so.

What I was expecting were anecdotes from the ground, something that surfaces the ground electorate reality. But the book, although being a very good repository of who contested, when and from where and how did it pan out, and how did the political parties panned out, was a disappointment in terms of content for me as politics enthusiast.

Having said that, the language is user friendly and the lines maintain a flow binding the reader.

[Anirban · Rating 3 out of 5]

2.5/5

What worked for me:
1. The length of the book : Thankfully the author kept the book short and all the chapters were precise and too the point.
2. Academic : If you are looking for juicy tidbits on inner workings of any political party then you wont get it here. This is much more about constituencies, their caste combinations, the vote transfers etc.
3. Reach : If the author is to be believed, then he and his team had surely reached out to almost all the constituencies in the country, and ended up predicting the numbers quite accurately.

What didn't work for me:
1. Boring : This feels like an academic work, with no view into the inner mechanisms of the parties. We don't get to know about the strategies or the logistical challenges faced by them.
2. Weak writing style : The book feels repetitive. The phrases are repetitive, it feels that if you have read about one state you know all the other states.
3. Bengal : The author wants me to believe that everyone he managed to interview spoke Hindi in West Bengal. That's pretty unbelievable for me.

[Vikas Goel · Rating 3 out of 5]

Its a decent book if you want to know about the ground situation that was prevalent in India during 2019 General Elections. It gives a very nuanced analysis about the Modi Tsunami that had build up in the entire country and the reasons for the same. However, I felt it was a bit repetitive and could have been written in a slightly more engaging manner as sometimes reading it felt too monotonous. But a good read especially for those who want to understand the phenomena called Narendra Damodardas Modi!

[Shail Godiwala · Rating 4 out of 5]

To travel 400 constituencies to ascertain voters' opinions is a herculean task. This is what makes Pradeep Bhandari one of the top psephologists in India.

He does a great job of distilling their opinions in a language and structure that is extremely easy to read and understand. Although the book felt repetitive, it is a testimony of how India changed between 2014-2019 which eventually led to voter maturity.