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Where Great Powers Meet: America and China in Southeast Asia
世界正在進入新冷戰時代嗎？
中國美國，誰會輸誰會贏？
欲知分曉，請隨作者一同深入兩強競逐實況的縮影之地：東南亞。
【內容說明】
國際關係錯綜複雜，但若問今日最大看點為何，答案應會眾口一致，咸認莫過於美中兩大強權之間的競爭。其白熱化程度，廣泛引起新冷戰時代是否已經到來的討論。
新冷戰真的到來了嗎？這場大國交鋒誰會占得上風？中國崛起美國衰弱乃大勢所趨抑或暫時表象？針對上述很多讀者關心的問題，本書作者沈大偉（David Shambaugh）以美中在東南亞的競逐為觀察對象，結合實地訪查、文獻研究和客觀數據，寓精闢見解於扎實剖析之中。
沈大偉認為，美中兩強爭奪支配力和影響力的煙硝，遍及全世界，而以東南亞為重地。美中在此地區的對抗，可說是兩強在全世界對抗的縮影。因此，掌握美中在東南亞的博弈情況，等於掌握了這場賽局的全貌。
沈大偉是美國著名中國與亞洲事務學者及政府智囊。在書中，他以簡潔平易的文字，描繪出一幅細節豐富、跨越時空的全景卷軸，展開後，美、中、東南亞三方行動者的歷史接觸、當前關係與未來走向，盡收眼底。
作者首先綜論美中在東南亞競爭的概況，針對美國單憑軍事硬實力、中國專憑經濟軟實力在東南亞行走的二分刻板框架，提出挑戰。由於美中和東南亞現在關係，深受過去關係影響，於是接著帶領讀者回溯美中分別在東南亞種下的前因，及其各自結成的後果。後半從東南亞視角出發，逐一檢視東協十國如何出招周旋於兩強之間。最後預測美中與東南亞合演的地緣政治權謀戲，有哪些可能劇情發展。
東南亞是臺灣的鄰居，與我們有密切的經貿往來和頻繁的人口互動，政府近年來更大力推動「新南向政策」，希望加深彼此連結。東南亞是中美兩強競逐的必爭之地，臺灣同樣身處美中角力的戰場前線。因此，《中美爭霸：兩強相遇東南亞》對於東協十國歷史與現狀的扼要介紹，對於美中與東南亞地緣政治局勢的銳利洞見，很值得我們汲取細讀，作為借鑑參考。
【專文導讀】
蔡宏政｜國立中山大學東南亞研究中心主任
莊嘉穎｜新加坡國立大學政治系副教授
中國美國，誰會輸誰會贏？
欲知分曉，請隨作者一同深入兩強競逐實況的縮影之地：東南亞。
【內容說明】
國際關係錯綜複雜，但若問今日最大看點為何，答案應會眾口一致，咸認莫過於美中兩大強權之間的競爭。其白熱化程度，廣泛引起新冷戰時代是否已經到來的討論。
新冷戰真的到來了嗎？這場大國交鋒誰會占得上風？中國崛起美國衰弱乃大勢所趨抑或暫時表象？針對上述很多讀者關心的問題，本書作者沈大偉（David Shambaugh）以美中在東南亞的競逐為觀察對象，結合實地訪查、文獻研究和客觀數據，寓精闢見解於扎實剖析之中。
沈大偉認為，美中兩強爭奪支配力和影響力的煙硝，遍及全世界，而以東南亞為重地。美中在此地區的對抗，可說是兩強在全世界對抗的縮影。因此，掌握美中在東南亞的博弈情況，等於掌握了這場賽局的全貌。
沈大偉是美國著名中國與亞洲事務學者及政府智囊。在書中，他以簡潔平易的文字，描繪出一幅細節豐富、跨越時空的全景卷軸，展開後，美、中、東南亞三方行動者的歷史接觸、當前關係與未來走向，盡收眼底。
作者首先綜論美中在東南亞競爭的概況，針對美國單憑軍事硬實力、中國專憑經濟軟實力在東南亞行走的二分刻板框架，提出挑戰。由於美中和東南亞現在關係，深受過去關係影響，於是接著帶領讀者回溯美中分別在東南亞種下的前因，及其各自結成的後果。後半從東南亞視角出發，逐一檢視東協十國如何出招周旋於兩強之間。最後預測美中與東南亞合演的地緣政治權謀戲，有哪些可能劇情發展。
東南亞是臺灣的鄰居，與我們有密切的經貿往來和頻繁的人口互動，政府近年來更大力推動「新南向政策」，希望加深彼此連結。東南亞是中美兩強競逐的必爭之地，臺灣同樣身處美中角力的戰場前線。因此，《中美爭霸：兩強相遇東南亞》對於東協十國歷史與現狀的扼要介紹，對於美中與東南亞地緣政治局勢的銳利洞見，很值得我們汲取細讀，作為借鑑參考。
【專文導讀】
蔡宏政｜國立中山大學東南亞研究中心主任
莊嘉穎｜新加坡國立大學政治系副教授
288 pages, Hardcover
Published July 1, 2020
64 people are currently reading
444 people want to read
About the author
David Shambaugh
44 books66 followersDavid Leigh Shambaugh is an American political scientist, Sinologist and policy advisor. He currently serves as the Gaston Sigur Professor of Asian Studies, Political Science, and International Affairs at George Washington University, where he is also the director of the China Policy Program at GW’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He is also a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution (2024—). He was previously a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. Shambaugh served in the Department of State, and on the White House National Security Council staff during the presidency of Jimmy Carter. As an author, Shambaugh has authored 12 and edited 21 books, and over 200 scholarly articles and newspaper op-eds. (Source: Wikipedia)
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Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews
January 18, 2021
A single-author study on the region of southeast Asia by an eminent scholar of Chinese politics. Four chapters of the seven in the book are devoted to American and Chinese "encounters" in southeast Asia; starting with the broad historical view and continuing to the present era of "great power competition".
Easily, the strongest chapters of the book are those which focus on the near past and the present. The author's access to elite opinions (academics, higher-ranking ministers, and even some heads of state) and his ability to elicit serious answers and doubts from personal interviews form an intriguing gauge of perspectives in what they believe, or what they would signal to others that they believe.
Shambaugh does not exclusively concentrate on military influence or territorial disputes; those commercial links and personal exchanges that are so often the bedrock for further negotiations are closer ties are also investigated. For example, thousands of Thai military officers have been trained in the United States -- or also, many more thousands of students in the region are educated in Chinese universities, not solely in the United States. Even so, there is an astonishing shortfall of expertise about Southeast Asia itself, including in China.
What he finds is a pervasive ambiguity, where countries would at present see themselves caught between two powers, and are at times distrustful of their intentions, and yet want to keep their options open in the case of further maneuvers. There are very few cases of governments that have wholly thrown their lot in with one great power or the other. Of the countries surveyed, Singapore has the closest relationship with the United States, whereas the state that could be most seriously considered a client state of China is Cambodia. And where there is suspicion of China's naked ambitions, the United States, the last four years have done little to shake the perception of relative decline, framed by incoherent commitments from the outgoing Trump administration.
One hopes that the history of the region in the 21st century will not be as violent as the 20th. Even so, this is a valuable guide for following what turbulence may arise in the coming years.
Easily, the strongest chapters of the book are those which focus on the near past and the present. The author's access to elite opinions (academics, higher-ranking ministers, and even some heads of state) and his ability to elicit serious answers and doubts from personal interviews form an intriguing gauge of perspectives in what they believe, or what they would signal to others that they believe.
Shambaugh does not exclusively concentrate on military influence or territorial disputes; those commercial links and personal exchanges that are so often the bedrock for further negotiations are closer ties are also investigated. For example, thousands of Thai military officers have been trained in the United States -- or also, many more thousands of students in the region are educated in Chinese universities, not solely in the United States. Even so, there is an astonishing shortfall of expertise about Southeast Asia itself, including in China.
What he finds is a pervasive ambiguity, where countries would at present see themselves caught between two powers, and are at times distrustful of their intentions, and yet want to keep their options open in the case of further maneuvers. There are very few cases of governments that have wholly thrown their lot in with one great power or the other. Of the countries surveyed, Singapore has the closest relationship with the United States, whereas the state that could be most seriously considered a client state of China is Cambodia. And where there is suspicion of China's naked ambitions, the United States, the last four years have done little to shake the perception of relative decline, framed by incoherent commitments from the outgoing Trump administration.
One hopes that the history of the region in the 21st century will not be as violent as the 20th. Even so, this is a valuable guide for following what turbulence may arise in the coming years.
January 4, 2021
David Shambaugh is one of the top China scholars in the world and it is always a pleasure to read one of his books. In this, his most recent book, he details the history and current influence of the United States and China in Southeast Asia and Southeast Asia's navigating between the two great powers. Especially helpful was chapter 6, which goes into country-by-country detail on the ten ASEAN countries' relationships to China vis-à-vis the United States.
Shambaugh concludes that China is doing better than the United States from the strategic point of view, making significant inroads and pulling most Southeast Asian countries closer to itself than to the United States. However, the United States still has deep roots and more comprehensive power than does China - with particular advantages in its military and soft power. The U.S. also has significantly more direct investment in Southeast Asia than does China. Shambaugh calls for the U.S. to fully recognize Southeast Asia as a strategic foreign policy priority - and calls for the U.S. to engage in stronger public diplomacy efforts to, in part, educate Southeast Asians about what the United States contributes (China's information/public diplomacy/propaganda campaigns have been significantly more effective than the U.S., which engages too little in this kind of work, as Robert Gates also noted in his recent book). Finally, Shambaugh calls for the U.S. to navigate carefully and to engage Southeast Asia but to not alienate Southeast Asia by asking countries to choose between the U.S. and China - the best that can be hoped for is a more neutral hedging and partial strategic alignment with the United States.
It will be interesting to watch what efforts the incoming Biden administration will make in Southeast Asia. Hopefully there will be a push to re-engage Southeast Asia under a revitalized "pivot." In any case, the regional competition with China will be a significant foreign policy challenge for years and decades to come.
Shambaugh concludes that China is doing better than the United States from the strategic point of view, making significant inroads and pulling most Southeast Asian countries closer to itself than to the United States. However, the United States still has deep roots and more comprehensive power than does China - with particular advantages in its military and soft power. The U.S. also has significantly more direct investment in Southeast Asia than does China. Shambaugh calls for the U.S. to fully recognize Southeast Asia as a strategic foreign policy priority - and calls for the U.S. to engage in stronger public diplomacy efforts to, in part, educate Southeast Asians about what the United States contributes (China's information/public diplomacy/propaganda campaigns have been significantly more effective than the U.S., which engages too little in this kind of work, as Robert Gates also noted in his recent book). Finally, Shambaugh calls for the U.S. to navigate carefully and to engage Southeast Asia but to not alienate Southeast Asia by asking countries to choose between the U.S. and China - the best that can be hoped for is a more neutral hedging and partial strategic alignment with the United States.
It will be interesting to watch what efforts the incoming Biden administration will make in Southeast Asia. Hopefully there will be a push to re-engage Southeast Asia under a revitalized "pivot." In any case, the regional competition with China will be a significant foreign policy challenge for years and decades to come.
July 20, 2021
Shambaugh's latest study of Southeast Asia between the US and China is a fascinating survey of historical and contemporary relations between the region and the superpowers. As a senior China scholar, Shambaugh has nearly unrivaled access to top policymakers and international experts. As a result, the book is loaded with helpful empirical data and penetrating insights into the strategic triangle. At times, though, his judgment (he deems Cambodia and Laos merely client states of China at this point) verges on simplistic and precludes the potential for more nuanced analysis. Still, on the whole, the work was outstanding and offered a rich look at the great debate of the state of Southeast Asia's relations with China and the United States at a pivotal and complex historical moment.
September 20, 2021
An interesting and timely book delving into the relationships of ASEAN countries with both China and the United States. Timely, because the Asia Pivot strategy of the Obama era and the China Trade War from the Trump era both seem part of Biden’s strategy and book’s timeline runs up to the 2020 US Presidential elections.
The book has four parts and seven chapters but I think you can break it into two sections plus a summary.
First section, in Parts 1 & 2, reviews the historical relationship between both the US and China with each of the ASEAN countries. First the US, then China, looking at the history and contemporary situation. Shambaugh looks at several facets: economics (commerce), security, and public/social diplomacy. I liked the historical review as I wasn’t particularly familiar with the detail provided. The contemporary era covers the Obama and Trump years so the book is exceedingly current.
The second section looks at each of the ASEAN countries and assesses their view of both the US and China. You can read this section in any order as the countries are, roughly, covered west to east (except it starts with Thailand then Myanmar). I felt this section didn’t go into enough depth of the commercial ties between SE Asian countries and China.
I liked the approach taken by Sebastian Strangio in In the Dragon's Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century for the assessment of China’s current involvement with each of the SE Asian countries and how geography shapes their concern. Mainland countries see cross border trade and investment, new high-speed rail lines, and the damming of rivers while maritime countries biggest issue being China’s claims to islands in the South China Sea (China's 9 Dash Line .
What Shambaugh provides is how the US and China interact with the ASEAN countries and how those countries balance (or not) their relationships with the US and China. Combined, the two books provide a comprehensive picture of the region. This one, the history and dynamics of the relationships with a good summary on future scenarios of the interplay between SE Asia, China, and the US. Where In the Dragon’s Shadow excels is the depth of economic activity between the reviewed countries and China.
The book has four parts and seven chapters but I think you can break it into two sections plus a summary.
First section, in Parts 1 & 2, reviews the historical relationship between both the US and China with each of the ASEAN countries. First the US, then China, looking at the history and contemporary situation. Shambaugh looks at several facets: economics (commerce), security, and public/social diplomacy. I liked the historical review as I wasn’t particularly familiar with the detail provided. The contemporary era covers the Obama and Trump years so the book is exceedingly current.
The second section looks at each of the ASEAN countries and assesses their view of both the US and China. You can read this section in any order as the countries are, roughly, covered west to east (except it starts with Thailand then Myanmar). I felt this section didn’t go into enough depth of the commercial ties between SE Asian countries and China.
I liked the approach taken by Sebastian Strangio in In the Dragon's Shadow: Southeast Asia in the Chinese Century for the assessment of China’s current involvement with each of the SE Asian countries and how geography shapes their concern. Mainland countries see cross border trade and investment, new high-speed rail lines, and the damming of rivers while maritime countries biggest issue being China’s claims to islands in the South China Sea (China's 9 Dash Line .
What Shambaugh provides is how the US and China interact with the ASEAN countries and how those countries balance (or not) their relationships with the US and China. Combined, the two books provide a comprehensive picture of the region. This one, the history and dynamics of the relationships with a good summary on future scenarios of the interplay between SE Asia, China, and the US. Where In the Dragon’s Shadow excels is the depth of economic activity between the reviewed countries and China.
August 20, 2022
This is a good book about the state of Southeast Asian relations with the US and China, though with a clear bias towards presenting the American side of things. I wouldn’t say it’s written for the general public, it feels more directed towards American politicians and those who influence policy making in order to educate them, and more so argue that more efforts need to be done to court back Southeast Asia in America’s favor.
I’ve read several books on this topic already so I didn’t learn anything too new, but my biggest takeaway from this was learning about how deeply America is entrenched in the military and security apparatuses of nearly every Southeast Asian nation, even though it’s often not highly publicized (as in the case of Malaysia, for example). Their continuous military support for each country seems to be their strongest influence in the region (along with the export of their cultural products) but the book argues to expand this further into other spheres as well as a bulwark against rapidly increasing Chinese expansionism in the area (particularly economically).
It’s worth reading if one wants to understand the situation from a well-versed American policy perspective. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but that’s irrelevant to whether or not I think it’s a good addition to the existing literature on the topic. Solid read.
I’ve read several books on this topic already so I didn’t learn anything too new, but my biggest takeaway from this was learning about how deeply America is entrenched in the military and security apparatuses of nearly every Southeast Asian nation, even though it’s often not highly publicized (as in the case of Malaysia, for example). Their continuous military support for each country seems to be their strongest influence in the region (along with the export of their cultural products) but the book argues to expand this further into other spheres as well as a bulwark against rapidly increasing Chinese expansionism in the area (particularly economically).
It’s worth reading if one wants to understand the situation from a well-versed American policy perspective. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but that’s irrelevant to whether or not I think it’s a good addition to the existing literature on the topic. Solid read.
August 19, 2021
This work is an important survey of Southeast Asia, a key region in its own right, but one of critical importance in the context of great power competition unfolding in the 21st century. Dr. Shambaugh brings decades of experience as a renown China scholar, provding real insights into the challenging balancing act the nations of Southeast Asia find themselves in while he makes clear he sees China making headway economically and diplomatically. He concludes that the U.S. maintains an important advantage in the military sphere, especially in the security cooperation it carriers out with ASEAN states. Crucially, this book was published in 2020 and only captures the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the book he cites the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) State of Southeast Asia report and it is interesting to consider the 2021 results where respondents when called upon to make make a binary choice between the U.S. and China chose the U.S. (61.5%) compared to China (38.5%), a substantial increase in selecting the U.S. compared to 2020. It looks to be a comprehensive competition that shows no signs of abating and Southeast Asia looks to be a prominent location for this competition that will shape the 21st Century.
June 22, 2023
8/10
This is less a story of America v China. And more telling the story of SE Asian nations, their rise, interactions with America and China, and current stance towards each. The author correctly points out that almost all SE Asian nations are straddling the line (hedging their bets) between both great powers.
What the author doesn't really dive into much, which I wish he would have, is how the US can shape it's foreign policy to have greater influence in the region. He makes a few vague statements, but more concrete discussions about how the US can bridge the tyranny of distance and be seen as a loyal/constant economic and military ally would have been welcome
This is less a story of America v China. And more telling the story of SE Asian nations, their rise, interactions with America and China, and current stance towards each. The author correctly points out that almost all SE Asian nations are straddling the line (hedging their bets) between both great powers.
What the author doesn't really dive into much, which I wish he would have, is how the US can shape it's foreign policy to have greater influence in the region. He makes a few vague statements, but more concrete discussions about how the US can bridge the tyranny of distance and be seen as a loyal/constant economic and military ally would have been welcome
October 22, 2021
I enjoyed the entire book, but the best, most enlightening section for me was the author’s accounting of ASEAN states’ perspective of the US and China. To me, it is worth reading even just that section as not many books address this perspective.
August 21, 2021
Great primer for both the experienced and casually informed on the increasingly complex and unique relationship of each SEA country with the United States and China. While I appreciate the heavy use of quotes from policymakers, strategists, and other brilliant minds in the region to convey current attitudes toward these relationships, I find the book lacking in original narrative, laced with broad generalizations, and highly repetitive.
September 15, 2023
Initially selected as this was on the Secretary of the US Air Force's recommended reading list given rising tension with China. As one who currently lives in the Pacific, an informative read (possibly too highly-academic for me being a novice learner) on the State of the States of Southeast Asia, a place that sounds like it could be (or is?) the front of a sort of cold war (or more of increasing competition). Recommended for those with an interest in the region and how current politics stand.
August 17, 2023
A strong case for the strategic importance of Southeast Asian countries to both the US and China. Shambaugh lays out the history of US presence, perception, and influence in the region. While he finds US perception has suffered from neglect by the Trump Administration, amid deepening investment and engagement from China, the US still holds substantial strengths and opportunities in the area.
February 1, 2024
I listened to this on audio book as a recommendation on understanding current the geopolitical climate with China. The book is easy to follow, very straight forward, and has a logical approach to understanding U.S., China, and ASEAN relationships, investments, and priorities. However, it is very, very dry and not a particularly exciting read (though I don’t think it’s supposed to be).
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July 22, 2024"Most international issues have no solutions, but they can be managed," says Bilahari Kausikan, the former Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore.
...from Chance of Taiwan, China Reunification is ‘Nil’ – What Happens Next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_T5V...
...from Chance of Taiwan, China Reunification is ‘Nil’ – What Happens Next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_T5V...
May 15, 2024
A great primer on the regional geopolitics, but quite distracting that the preface is basically a preemptive apology by the author in case anything is wrong.
Displaying 1 - 14 of 14 reviews