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Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency
From America's leading scholar of democracy, a personal, passionate call to action against the rising authoritarianism that challenges our world order--and the very value of liberty
Larry Diamond has made it his life's work to secure democracy's future by understanding its past and by advising dissidents fighting autocracy around the world. Deeply attuned to the cycles of democratic expansion and decay that determine the fates of nations, he watched with mounting unease as illiberal rulers rose in Hungary, Poland, Turkey, the Philippines, and beyond, while China and Russia grew increasingly bold and bullying. Then, with Trump's election at home, the global retreat from freedom spread from democracy's margins to its heart.
Ill Winds' core argument is stark: the defense and advancement of democratic ideals relies on U.S. global leadership. If we do not reclaim our traditional place as the keystone of democracy, today's authoritarian swell could become a tsunami, providing an opening for Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and their admirers to turn the twenty-first century into a dark time of despotism.
We are at a hinge in history, between a new era of tyranny and an age of democratic renewal. Free governments can defend their values; free citizens can exercise their rights. We can make the internet safe for liberal democracy, exploit the soft, kleptocratic underbelly of dictatorships, and revive America's degraded democracy. Ill Winds offers concrete, deeply informed suggestions to fight polarization, reduce the influence of money in politics, and make every vote count.
In 2019, freedom's last line of defense still remains "We the people."
Larry Diamond has made it his life's work to secure democracy's future by understanding its past and by advising dissidents fighting autocracy around the world. Deeply attuned to the cycles of democratic expansion and decay that determine the fates of nations, he watched with mounting unease as illiberal rulers rose in Hungary, Poland, Turkey, the Philippines, and beyond, while China and Russia grew increasingly bold and bullying. Then, with Trump's election at home, the global retreat from freedom spread from democracy's margins to its heart.
Ill Winds' core argument is stark: the defense and advancement of democratic ideals relies on U.S. global leadership. If we do not reclaim our traditional place as the keystone of democracy, today's authoritarian swell could become a tsunami, providing an opening for Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and their admirers to turn the twenty-first century into a dark time of despotism.
We are at a hinge in history, between a new era of tyranny and an age of democratic renewal. Free governments can defend their values; free citizens can exercise their rights. We can make the internet safe for liberal democracy, exploit the soft, kleptocratic underbelly of dictatorships, and revive America's degraded democracy. Ill Winds offers concrete, deeply informed suggestions to fight polarization, reduce the influence of money in politics, and make every vote count.
In 2019, freedom's last line of defense still remains "We the people."
384 pages, Paperback
Published April 14, 2020
129 people are currently reading
754 people want to read
About the author
Larry Diamond
86 books63 followersLarry Jay Diamond (born October 2, 1951) is a political sociologist and leading contemporary scholar in the field of democracy studies. He is a professor of Sociology and Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a conservative policy think tank. At Stanford he teaches courses on democratic development and supervises the democracy program at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. He has published extensively in the fields of foreign policy, foreign aid, and democracy.
Diamond is also a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, which is Stanford University’s main center for research on international issues. At the Institute Diamond serves as the director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. The CDDRL’s most recent accomplishment came in the spring of 2011 by building a technological community between Tahrir Square (Cairo, Egypt) and Silicon Valley (California Bay Area). This community was fully focused on helping mobilize protesters in Egypt who eventually helped in the downfall of autocratic president Hosni Mubarak.
Diamond has served as an advisor to numerous governmental and international organizations at various points in his life, including the United States Department of State, United Nations, World Bank, and U.S. Agency for International Development. He is a founding co-editor of the National Endowment for Democracy's Journal of Democracy. He is also a coordinator of the Hoover Institution's Iran Democracy Project, along with Abbas Milani and Michael McFaul.
Diamond is also a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, which is Stanford University’s main center for research on international issues. At the Institute Diamond serves as the director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. The CDDRL’s most recent accomplishment came in the spring of 2011 by building a technological community between Tahrir Square (Cairo, Egypt) and Silicon Valley (California Bay Area). This community was fully focused on helping mobilize protesters in Egypt who eventually helped in the downfall of autocratic president Hosni Mubarak.
Diamond has served as an advisor to numerous governmental and international organizations at various points in his life, including the United States Department of State, United Nations, World Bank, and U.S. Agency for International Development. He is a founding co-editor of the National Endowment for Democracy's Journal of Democracy. He is also a coordinator of the Hoover Institution's Iran Democracy Project, along with Abbas Milani and Michael McFaul.
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July 2, 2019
One thing history teaches us is that, while only some democracies function well, no autocracies have ever functioned well, if the standard is the general welfare, peace, freedom, and economic security of the people at large. The reason is simple and repeatedly confirmed throughout history: power eventually corrupts when left unchecked.
The problem is, we no longer recognize the very autocratic tendencies that we should be most fearful of. As Larry Diamond writes:
“In earlier reverse waves, military coups were the main method of the democraic recession. Not today. The death of democracy is now typically administered in a thousand cuts. In one country after another, elected leaders have gradually attacked the deep tissues of democracy—the political independence of the courts, the business community, the media, civil society, universities, and sensitive state institutions like the civil service, the intelligence agencies, the military, and the police.”
Despite the fact that liberal democracy has proven to be the only political arrangement to consistently deliver higher levels of wealth and well-being for the largest number of people—and that no two democracies have ever gone to war with each other—we still feel the urge to submit to strongman leaders that seek to attack the credibility of the very institutions responsible for democracy to function in the first place.
As Diamond states:
“Ultimately, what sustains democracy is a deep and unconditional belief in its legitimacy. Unless a country’s people and politicians are unconditionally committed to democracy as the best form of government—one worth obeying and defending even when their preferred parties, candidates, and policies lose out—democracy will rest on tenuous footing. Then, any crisis could topple it.”
Liberal democracy has shown itself to be the best form of government because it allows for the constitutional protection of rights and freedoms, periodic free and fair elections to peacefully remove bad leaders, and independent checks on power and corruption through governmental separation of powers, an independent media, independent universities, and free speech, press, assembly, and religion. While imperfect in practice, the stronger a democracy gets, the better life gets for its citizens.
Autocracies have none of these invaluable safeguards and rely entirely on the whims of whichever ruler happens to have seized power. Autocratic rulers are free to implement policy unrestricted, violate basic human rights, suppress free inquiry, and amass obscene levels of wealth and power. Over and over again, history confirms what should be obvious: despite our natural inclination to submit to strongman leaders, the result is always disastrous.
In the short term, democracy is an autocrat’s (and their followers) worst enemy. Democracy prevents unilateral implementation of policy, forces compromise, demands honest persuasion, and exposes policy to independent scrutiny. The autocrat’s first job, then, is not to persuade people about the merits of their vision, but to attack the foundations of democracy itself to weaken its restrictions on their actions. They do so based on some variation of the “autocrats’ twelve-step program” outlined by Diamond, as follows:
1. Begin to demonize the opposition as illegitimate and unpatriotic
2. Undermine the independence of the courts
3. Attack the independence of the media (recall Trump’s tweet that America’s biggest enemy is not Russia, ISIS, or North Korea, but our own news media)
4. Gain control of any public broadcasting
5. Impose stricter control of the internet
6. Subdue other elements of civil society
7. Intimidate the business community
8. Enrich a new class of crony capitalists
9. Assert political control over the civil service and the security apparatus
10. Gerrymander districts and rig the electoral rules
11. Gain control over the body that runs elections
12. Repeat steps 1 to 11
Any of this sound familiar? This applies just as readily to the actions, words, and intentions of Donald Trump as it does to Vladimir Putin or Viktor Orbán; the only difference is that the US, for now, has more resilient institutions and a Constitution. But democracy is not inevitable, and as people lose faith in the US media, universities, elections, intelligence agencies, the civil service, and the courts, the autocratic ruler is primed to tear the entire system down, which is exactly what Russia wants and is why they invested so heavily in helping Trump to win the election.
Democracy in the US is too strong to be destroyed by military invasion or an internal coup, so autocratic rulers are attempting to destroy it from within by sowing discord and polarization. And it’s working. As Diamond wrote:
“Given the relentlessness of Russia’s campaign, Facebook’s own estimate that 126 million Americans received fake Russian posts on its site, Russia’s strategically targeted online attempts to suppress Clinton’s voter turnout in key battleground states, and the fact that Trump won the Electoral College with only very narrow margins of victory (totaling some eighty thousand votes) in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, I have concluded that Hillary Clinton would almost certainly have won the Electoral College if there had been no Russian intervention.”
Putin achieved his dual aims during the 2016 election: to “sow division and discord in American democracy” and to “punish Clinton and elect Trump.” But it’s not only Russia; a wave of illiberalism has spread across the world and America’s silence on the issue—along with its own weakening democracy—has only emboldened would-be autocrats to make more aggressive moves.
So what’s the solution? How do we defend democracy and reverse the illiberal authoritarian trends spreading throughout the world? As Diamond states, this requires both shoring up our own democracy at home as well as renewing America’s leadership role as a global beacon for democracy.
To start at home, Diamond suggests implementing policies that, while not particularly novel, are very hard to argue against if the goal really is to strengthen democracy. Recommendations include the widespread implementation of ranked-choice voting (to remove the specter of the “wasted vote” and to encourage political civility), the elimination of gerrymandering (to make representation more proportional to voter preferences), and the elimination of the Electoral College (for the obvious reason that in a democracy the candidate that wins the popular vote should be elected President).
Again, these are hard to argue against, because in each case the voter is given more choices, influence, and incentive to vote. We should remind ourselves that the bedrock of democracy is free and fair elections, so any policy that makes voting easier and fairer is desirable. Remember that gerrymandering was not implemented to make elections fair; it was implemented for partisan advantage and that’s why we can’t allow the practice to continue—regardless of which party is currently benefiting under such arrangements.
Diamond also reminds us that isolationism is simply not an option in a globally connected world. We can either help to promote democracy and the institutions of peace around the globe or we can allow authoritarian regimes to create a new world order that directly threatens the US and its liberal values. As Diamond writes, concerning a future without American leadership:
“For democrats everywhere, this is a frightening prospect. But for the belligerent autocrats in China and Russia, it is a gift: a startling, almost too-good-to-be-true opportunity to bring down the global architecture of norms and alliances that has kept the peace in Europe and the Pacific for nearly three quarters of a century—and enabled an unprecedented expansion of democracy and freedom.”
This is what’s at stake; a turn inward for America means the emboldening of illiberal values in the rest of the world, which in turn directly impacts the security of our own democracy. “America first” means “America alone,” and in terms in international relations this could not be more dangerous. As Diamond explains, “if you look back over our history to see who has posed a threat to the United States and our allies, it has always been authoritarian regimes and empires. As political scientists have long noted, no two democracies have ever gone to war with each other—ever.”
In addition, China is “so rapidly advancing it’s capabilities...that within a decade or two, it may be able to win a war with the United States,” writes Diamond. The way to counter Chinese technological, scientific, and military aspirations is not through a trade war, but through our own investments and advancements in science and technology. This can be achieved through greater federal funding of research and development (which has fallen from 2 percent of GDP in the 1960s to 0.7 percent today), greater incentives to pursue STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) careers, and expanding foreign expert visas and encouraging the world’s best scientists to emigrate to the US.
As Diamond writes in this powerful passage:
“All this casts today’s debates about immigration in a different light. Immiigration is a national security issue, but not in the way that Donald Trump and his fellow nativist populists assert. Part of what distinguishes the United States from its two great autocratic rivals is its ability to attract people from all over the world brimming with technical gifts and creative energy. Keeping our gates open to this influx of talent and entrepreneurship will continue to make America great. And assimilating these immigrants into taking on democratic citizenship is a profound opportunity for American democracy. It is a field on which China and Russia—and every other autocracy in the world—simply cannot compete.”
Diamond also covers recommendations for combating Russian interference in elections, fighting kleptocracy, making the internet safe for democracy, and campaign finance reform. The reader may not discover anything particularly novel, but the recommendations are all grounded in rich scholarship and can make a positive impact in terms of strengthening democracy.
Overall, Diamond has distilled into this book 40 years of insight and experience traveling the world and studying democracy, including what makes democracy work and how it can fail. It is both a diagnosis of the creeping authoritarianism that infects the world and a prescription for US domestic and foreign policy initiatives that can not only make our own democracy stronger and more resilient but also reaffirm America’s leadership role in promoting liberal values across the globe. If any book deserves the praise of “required reading” in this political climate, it is this one.
The problem is, we no longer recognize the very autocratic tendencies that we should be most fearful of. As Larry Diamond writes:
“In earlier reverse waves, military coups were the main method of the democraic recession. Not today. The death of democracy is now typically administered in a thousand cuts. In one country after another, elected leaders have gradually attacked the deep tissues of democracy—the political independence of the courts, the business community, the media, civil society, universities, and sensitive state institutions like the civil service, the intelligence agencies, the military, and the police.”
Despite the fact that liberal democracy has proven to be the only political arrangement to consistently deliver higher levels of wealth and well-being for the largest number of people—and that no two democracies have ever gone to war with each other—we still feel the urge to submit to strongman leaders that seek to attack the credibility of the very institutions responsible for democracy to function in the first place.
As Diamond states:
“Ultimately, what sustains democracy is a deep and unconditional belief in its legitimacy. Unless a country’s people and politicians are unconditionally committed to democracy as the best form of government—one worth obeying and defending even when their preferred parties, candidates, and policies lose out—democracy will rest on tenuous footing. Then, any crisis could topple it.”
Liberal democracy has shown itself to be the best form of government because it allows for the constitutional protection of rights and freedoms, periodic free and fair elections to peacefully remove bad leaders, and independent checks on power and corruption through governmental separation of powers, an independent media, independent universities, and free speech, press, assembly, and religion. While imperfect in practice, the stronger a democracy gets, the better life gets for its citizens.
Autocracies have none of these invaluable safeguards and rely entirely on the whims of whichever ruler happens to have seized power. Autocratic rulers are free to implement policy unrestricted, violate basic human rights, suppress free inquiry, and amass obscene levels of wealth and power. Over and over again, history confirms what should be obvious: despite our natural inclination to submit to strongman leaders, the result is always disastrous.
In the short term, democracy is an autocrat’s (and their followers) worst enemy. Democracy prevents unilateral implementation of policy, forces compromise, demands honest persuasion, and exposes policy to independent scrutiny. The autocrat’s first job, then, is not to persuade people about the merits of their vision, but to attack the foundations of democracy itself to weaken its restrictions on their actions. They do so based on some variation of the “autocrats’ twelve-step program” outlined by Diamond, as follows:
1. Begin to demonize the opposition as illegitimate and unpatriotic
2. Undermine the independence of the courts
3. Attack the independence of the media (recall Trump’s tweet that America’s biggest enemy is not Russia, ISIS, or North Korea, but our own news media)
4. Gain control of any public broadcasting
5. Impose stricter control of the internet
6. Subdue other elements of civil society
7. Intimidate the business community
8. Enrich a new class of crony capitalists
9. Assert political control over the civil service and the security apparatus
10. Gerrymander districts and rig the electoral rules
11. Gain control over the body that runs elections
12. Repeat steps 1 to 11
Any of this sound familiar? This applies just as readily to the actions, words, and intentions of Donald Trump as it does to Vladimir Putin or Viktor Orbán; the only difference is that the US, for now, has more resilient institutions and a Constitution. But democracy is not inevitable, and as people lose faith in the US media, universities, elections, intelligence agencies, the civil service, and the courts, the autocratic ruler is primed to tear the entire system down, which is exactly what Russia wants and is why they invested so heavily in helping Trump to win the election.
Democracy in the US is too strong to be destroyed by military invasion or an internal coup, so autocratic rulers are attempting to destroy it from within by sowing discord and polarization. And it’s working. As Diamond wrote:
“Given the relentlessness of Russia’s campaign, Facebook’s own estimate that 126 million Americans received fake Russian posts on its site, Russia’s strategically targeted online attempts to suppress Clinton’s voter turnout in key battleground states, and the fact that Trump won the Electoral College with only very narrow margins of victory (totaling some eighty thousand votes) in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, I have concluded that Hillary Clinton would almost certainly have won the Electoral College if there had been no Russian intervention.”
Putin achieved his dual aims during the 2016 election: to “sow division and discord in American democracy” and to “punish Clinton and elect Trump.” But it’s not only Russia; a wave of illiberalism has spread across the world and America’s silence on the issue—along with its own weakening democracy—has only emboldened would-be autocrats to make more aggressive moves.
So what’s the solution? How do we defend democracy and reverse the illiberal authoritarian trends spreading throughout the world? As Diamond states, this requires both shoring up our own democracy at home as well as renewing America’s leadership role as a global beacon for democracy.
To start at home, Diamond suggests implementing policies that, while not particularly novel, are very hard to argue against if the goal really is to strengthen democracy. Recommendations include the widespread implementation of ranked-choice voting (to remove the specter of the “wasted vote” and to encourage political civility), the elimination of gerrymandering (to make representation more proportional to voter preferences), and the elimination of the Electoral College (for the obvious reason that in a democracy the candidate that wins the popular vote should be elected President).
Again, these are hard to argue against, because in each case the voter is given more choices, influence, and incentive to vote. We should remind ourselves that the bedrock of democracy is free and fair elections, so any policy that makes voting easier and fairer is desirable. Remember that gerrymandering was not implemented to make elections fair; it was implemented for partisan advantage and that’s why we can’t allow the practice to continue—regardless of which party is currently benefiting under such arrangements.
Diamond also reminds us that isolationism is simply not an option in a globally connected world. We can either help to promote democracy and the institutions of peace around the globe or we can allow authoritarian regimes to create a new world order that directly threatens the US and its liberal values. As Diamond writes, concerning a future without American leadership:
“For democrats everywhere, this is a frightening prospect. But for the belligerent autocrats in China and Russia, it is a gift: a startling, almost too-good-to-be-true opportunity to bring down the global architecture of norms and alliances that has kept the peace in Europe and the Pacific for nearly three quarters of a century—and enabled an unprecedented expansion of democracy and freedom.”
This is what’s at stake; a turn inward for America means the emboldening of illiberal values in the rest of the world, which in turn directly impacts the security of our own democracy. “America first” means “America alone,” and in terms in international relations this could not be more dangerous. As Diamond explains, “if you look back over our history to see who has posed a threat to the United States and our allies, it has always been authoritarian regimes and empires. As political scientists have long noted, no two democracies have ever gone to war with each other—ever.”
In addition, China is “so rapidly advancing it’s capabilities...that within a decade or two, it may be able to win a war with the United States,” writes Diamond. The way to counter Chinese technological, scientific, and military aspirations is not through a trade war, but through our own investments and advancements in science and technology. This can be achieved through greater federal funding of research and development (which has fallen from 2 percent of GDP in the 1960s to 0.7 percent today), greater incentives to pursue STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) careers, and expanding foreign expert visas and encouraging the world’s best scientists to emigrate to the US.
As Diamond writes in this powerful passage:
“All this casts today’s debates about immigration in a different light. Immiigration is a national security issue, but not in the way that Donald Trump and his fellow nativist populists assert. Part of what distinguishes the United States from its two great autocratic rivals is its ability to attract people from all over the world brimming with technical gifts and creative energy. Keeping our gates open to this influx of talent and entrepreneurship will continue to make America great. And assimilating these immigrants into taking on democratic citizenship is a profound opportunity for American democracy. It is a field on which China and Russia—and every other autocracy in the world—simply cannot compete.”
Diamond also covers recommendations for combating Russian interference in elections, fighting kleptocracy, making the internet safe for democracy, and campaign finance reform. The reader may not discover anything particularly novel, but the recommendations are all grounded in rich scholarship and can make a positive impact in terms of strengthening democracy.
Overall, Diamond has distilled into this book 40 years of insight and experience traveling the world and studying democracy, including what makes democracy work and how it can fail. It is both a diagnosis of the creeping authoritarianism that infects the world and a prescription for US domestic and foreign policy initiatives that can not only make our own democracy stronger and more resilient but also reaffirm America’s leadership role in promoting liberal values across the globe. If any book deserves the praise of “required reading” in this political climate, it is this one.
June 23, 2019
This book is very timely, extremely well based in research, easily readable and in my view the most important book regarding the state of liberal democracy.
In easy language, and i think compelling, Prof. Diamond synthesizes all his immense knowledge coming from editing the Journal of Democracy very well. What i enjoy the most is his insight that established democracies not only have to evolve to stay intact, but have to support those on the brink to democracy. It´s important that liberal democracies work well and perform well in order to inspire.
With personal insightful anecdotes this book spans from the state of american democracy to the dangers of the internet to democracy to the illiberal wave we see since 2006.
It is, in my view, the must read book regarding our most precious gift - freedom. Absolute 5 stars.
In easy language, and i think compelling, Prof. Diamond synthesizes all his immense knowledge coming from editing the Journal of Democracy very well. What i enjoy the most is his insight that established democracies not only have to evolve to stay intact, but have to support those on the brink to democracy. It´s important that liberal democracies work well and perform well in order to inspire.
With personal insightful anecdotes this book spans from the state of american democracy to the dangers of the internet to democracy to the illiberal wave we see since 2006.
It is, in my view, the must read book regarding our most precious gift - freedom. Absolute 5 stars.
September 25, 2020
Unapologetically gringo, but a much better read than other works about the wave of political change that we are living around the world. No question that Diamond is a great exponent of democratic studies and a serious academic that is not only using the populist wave for fame, like many others out there. It fails to address the most relevant research conducted on populism from authors like Mudde, Rovira, Albertazzi, Moffit, Weyland, de la Torre, et al.
This book is particularly interesting in its approach, arguing both that there is a great powers struggle element to the rise of non-democratic leaders around the world, Russia and China. It also places the focus on corruption and kleptocracy, instead of inequalities and identity politics which are the usual suspects in most of the pop literature about current events.
It is also very interesting against itself, at least for all of us non-US citizens. It's a book plagued with the liberal democratic version of American exceptionalism, sometimes worthy of a Hallmark card... It embodies the thought of the American technocrat and the Biden enthusiast. If you want to understand why democrats keep getting it wrong, you will find many answers here.
This book is particularly interesting in its approach, arguing both that there is a great powers struggle element to the rise of non-democratic leaders around the world, Russia and China. It also places the focus on corruption and kleptocracy, instead of inequalities and identity politics which are the usual suspects in most of the pop literature about current events.
It is also very interesting against itself, at least for all of us non-US citizens. It's a book plagued with the liberal democratic version of American exceptionalism, sometimes worthy of a Hallmark card... It embodies the thought of the American technocrat and the Biden enthusiast. If you want to understand why democrats keep getting it wrong, you will find many answers here.
July 5, 2019
4.6 I recommend this book to everyone. Mr. Diamond presents use with a cogent, non-partisan call to action to help reestablish compromise in politics and reinvestment in the pillars of democracy--freedom of speech, freedom of the press and the right to vote. At the same time he carefully documents the dangers of cyber world we live in. He does offer remedies which I think most would find reasonable albeit challenging. I find his advocacy for Ranked Choice voting particularly intriguing.
March 1, 2020
Attended an excellent Larry Diamond lecture at Stanford yesterday. Can’t wait to read this book. His insights and solutions for reinforcing and protecting our threatened democracy are excellent—two key take-aways: Champion the moderate (majority) voices that are downed out by the media and our polarized politicians & perhaps most important: Revive our civic education programs & teach students to critically analyze the information they encounter online and in the media.
July 15, 2019
I agree with the author that recent world events do pose a threat to liberal democracy. The author provides some good approaches for combatting recent trends and describes well the threat of China and Russia in undermining the current order of international cooperation and democracy. The book could be trimmed down, especially as the latter chapters seem redundant.
October 28, 2019
Disclosure: I attended college in the 1970s a few years behind Larry. Having served as student body president, he was a prominent figure on campus. After he joined the faculty of our alma mater, we would meet up at college reunions whenever I travelled from my residence in Singapore. After reading his books and articles, we corresponded intermittently about politics. I have rated his Spirit of Democracy with 5 stars on this site. I completed his MOOC Democratic Development on Coursera.
Larry's book The Spirit of Democracy is an essential read, not only for the student of political science but for any concerned global citizen. It extends beyond the American Founding Fathers and examines the evolution of democracy (and the resistance to it) on a global stage. His passionate commitment to democracy does not succumb to partisanship or political correctness. He wades into emotionally charged debates with objectivity and civility. He lectures but also listens. This sets him apart from the pundits and talking heads dominating the narratives on the broadcast news channels. Larry is a consummate scholar and meticulous researcher; hence, his books deserve a thorough and careful reading. The only flaw with the Spirit of Democracy is that the subsequent upheavals in geopolitics and events necessitate an updated edition.
Ill Winds delivers that update in all respects. But, as the title - Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency - states, the latest news is not good. Sadly, the political wins - the Color Revolutions, People Power, the Arab Spring - celebrated in the earlier book have receded. Democratic norms, civil liberties and freedom are under attack. Autocrats, kleptocrats and authoritarian populists have consolidated power around the world. He offers disturbing profiles of despotic leaders from Russia, China, Turkey, the Philippines, Myanmar, Hungary and other emerging nations. His frustration and concerns are elevated. The Spirit of Democracy celebrates Aung San Su Kyi and her years of house arrest under the military junta in Myanmar. Ill Winds does not spend much time lamenting ASSK's fall from grace but instead focuses on the next generation in Myanmar continuing the fight that she abandoned. And Trump was elected.
Aside from the dismal report on democratic setbacks, there are compelling reasons to dive into Ill Winds. Diamond offers unique perspectives on the Trump Presidency, although he admits it is challenging to remain neutral. In coming to terms with the Trump Factor, Larry highlights the failures and abuses of democratic institutions such as the electoral college, primaries and the two-party system. He offers sensible prescriptions such as ranked voting and direct elections. He is cheered by the fall of the Najib Administration in Malaysia and the growing democratic movements in Hong Kong. His analyses of these last two Asian developments (closer to home, so to say) are accurate and insightful.
This book highlights the urgency of our current predicament and argues persuasively that more democracy may ultimately offer the best remedy.
Larry's book The Spirit of Democracy is an essential read, not only for the student of political science but for any concerned global citizen. It extends beyond the American Founding Fathers and examines the evolution of democracy (and the resistance to it) on a global stage. His passionate commitment to democracy does not succumb to partisanship or political correctness. He wades into emotionally charged debates with objectivity and civility. He lectures but also listens. This sets him apart from the pundits and talking heads dominating the narratives on the broadcast news channels. Larry is a consummate scholar and meticulous researcher; hence, his books deserve a thorough and careful reading. The only flaw with the Spirit of Democracy is that the subsequent upheavals in geopolitics and events necessitate an updated edition.
Ill Winds delivers that update in all respects. But, as the title - Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency - states, the latest news is not good. Sadly, the political wins - the Color Revolutions, People Power, the Arab Spring - celebrated in the earlier book have receded. Democratic norms, civil liberties and freedom are under attack. Autocrats, kleptocrats and authoritarian populists have consolidated power around the world. He offers disturbing profiles of despotic leaders from Russia, China, Turkey, the Philippines, Myanmar, Hungary and other emerging nations. His frustration and concerns are elevated. The Spirit of Democracy celebrates Aung San Su Kyi and her years of house arrest under the military junta in Myanmar. Ill Winds does not spend much time lamenting ASSK's fall from grace but instead focuses on the next generation in Myanmar continuing the fight that she abandoned. And Trump was elected.
Aside from the dismal report on democratic setbacks, there are compelling reasons to dive into Ill Winds. Diamond offers unique perspectives on the Trump Presidency, although he admits it is challenging to remain neutral. In coming to terms with the Trump Factor, Larry highlights the failures and abuses of democratic institutions such as the electoral college, primaries and the two-party system. He offers sensible prescriptions such as ranked voting and direct elections. He is cheered by the fall of the Najib Administration in Malaysia and the growing democratic movements in Hong Kong. His analyses of these last two Asian developments (closer to home, so to say) are accurate and insightful.
This book highlights the urgency of our current predicament and argues persuasively that more democracy may ultimately offer the best remedy.
March 11, 2022
“[This] is what democratic failure often looks like: governance is bad, the economy sags, order implodes, people lose faith, and the system limps along until it is pushed over by the military, extremist militants, or the ruler himself.”
This was a very enlightening read. Yet, the reaffirmations about that situation of my own country felt rather eerie. I think a lot of people are vaguely aware of the stench of the corruption of democracy but not of the almost formulated approach that every authoritarian share in gradually spreading it.
This book helped me put the pieces of the puzzle jumbled in my head so I could more clearly see the big picture to fully appreciate the gravity of what occurred upon the election of a populist leader. At some point, I had to pause reading for a bit to process..It wasn’t easy to accept the facts, especially as a person who abhors and tries to avoid conflict most of the time. But I eventually sucked it up and faced the uncomfortable truths, especially in the lieu of the next national elections.
My internet was especially piqued with the topic of ranked choice voting and the passion people of Maine in enacting this local yet significant change. This was a stark representation of fighting for democracy is. A grassroots movement of individuals that wanted to gain back their right to vote that those in power, in fear of losing their advantages in a polarized political system, tried to quash into oblivion. I only wish to see similar display in countries (such as mine) that could definitely use it.
However, one thing that made me a scratch my head a bit was the ways America apparently needs to “convey knowledge about democracy” by educating them with America’s history.
I’d argue that, if anything, these countries have been too polarized by the western ideals of democracy, particularly that of America’s. What this method fails to grasp is the fact that America itself, as the author pointed out, is still on its way of ‘perfecting’ their own system. And so, to ask the countries to use USA as an example is even more dangerous when it falls short of its own principles even in the slightest (eg when a populist like Trump emerges as the leader of this supposed ‘ideal’).
I say this because notions of liberty did not spring from USA’s Declaration of Independence. In the Philippines, we’ve been fighting (and winning) against our first colonizer, the Spaniards, when USA barged in with their promises of liberty. So while I agree that education is key to deepening the roots of democracy, i don’t think that the subject should be that of foreign examples but of internal struggles from their own country’s history. The innate familiarity will be more effective in showing the people the perils of the past while also grant them visions of hope for what could be achieved in the future (even not by them but for their children). Jose Rizal, our national hero and martyr who died in behalf of our people in that struggle, famously said “kabataan ang pag-asa ng bayan” or “the youth is the hope of our nation.” As our ancestors have once dreamed of in behalf of us, the people inheriting the uphill fight.
“Slow descents have a way of lulling us into complacency. Things aren’t so bad, we tell ourselves; they’re just slipping a bit. But we ignore gradual decay at our peril. ”
While I remember being educated about these struggles in our elementary history classes, I sort of treaded the readings as a story of a long gone era, utterly failing to acknowledge the continuation of the fight that we’ve clearly lost sight of, especially after the complacency we were put in by a dictator and the chaos and hard recovery that soon followed. Maybe I was just not “woke” enough. But weirdly, even with access to all this information, the youth of my country today are more aware of foreign popculture than their own history. Perhaps that is how the system as molded us as a people but I wish we would take initiative to seek information beyond their own circles instead of reaffirming their biases (despite the obvious difficulty due to social media algorithms). We are known to be resilient people due to the all the hardships we suffer from natural (and man-made) disasters but the fact of the matter is, these are consequences of a system built to control the mass into ignorance and apathy. The ruse of democracy can only be made possible if the people are burdened with heavier issues: their basic daily needs to survive. What better way to keep in power but by to keep those who make that possible unaware of multiple infringement of their human rights. The Filipinos are a hard-working people, we’re not resilient because we want to be but because that is the only way we know to be.
Now, I don’t presume to be the person to solve this issue (nor do I think it’s a task of just one person) but I hope I can be a small cog of the slightest significance in affecting some change towards progress anyway.
So if you’re someone who is trying to figure out a way to combat the threat to democracy in our lifetime against the ‘‘autocrats’ twelve-step program’ formulated by the author (which was funny yet eerie enough to evoke a nervous laughter), maybe this book can help you.
This was a very enlightening read. Yet, the reaffirmations about that situation of my own country felt rather eerie. I think a lot of people are vaguely aware of the stench of the corruption of democracy but not of the almost formulated approach that every authoritarian share in gradually spreading it.
This book helped me put the pieces of the puzzle jumbled in my head so I could more clearly see the big picture to fully appreciate the gravity of what occurred upon the election of a populist leader. At some point, I had to pause reading for a bit to process..It wasn’t easy to accept the facts, especially as a person who abhors and tries to avoid conflict most of the time. But I eventually sucked it up and faced the uncomfortable truths, especially in the lieu of the next national elections.
My internet was especially piqued with the topic of ranked choice voting and the passion people of Maine in enacting this local yet significant change. This was a stark representation of fighting for democracy is. A grassroots movement of individuals that wanted to gain back their right to vote that those in power, in fear of losing their advantages in a polarized political system, tried to quash into oblivion. I only wish to see similar display in countries (such as mine) that could definitely use it.
However, one thing that made me a scratch my head a bit was the ways America apparently needs to “convey knowledge about democracy” by educating them with America’s history.
I’d argue that, if anything, these countries have been too polarized by the western ideals of democracy, particularly that of America’s. What this method fails to grasp is the fact that America itself, as the author pointed out, is still on its way of ‘perfecting’ their own system. And so, to ask the countries to use USA as an example is even more dangerous when it falls short of its own principles even in the slightest (eg when a populist like Trump emerges as the leader of this supposed ‘ideal’).
I say this because notions of liberty did not spring from USA’s Declaration of Independence. In the Philippines, we’ve been fighting (and winning) against our first colonizer, the Spaniards, when USA barged in with their promises of liberty. So while I agree that education is key to deepening the roots of democracy, i don’t think that the subject should be that of foreign examples but of internal struggles from their own country’s history. The innate familiarity will be more effective in showing the people the perils of the past while also grant them visions of hope for what could be achieved in the future (even not by them but for their children). Jose Rizal, our national hero and martyr who died in behalf of our people in that struggle, famously said “kabataan ang pag-asa ng bayan” or “the youth is the hope of our nation.” As our ancestors have once dreamed of in behalf of us, the people inheriting the uphill fight.
“Slow descents have a way of lulling us into complacency. Things aren’t so bad, we tell ourselves; they’re just slipping a bit. But we ignore gradual decay at our peril. ”
While I remember being educated about these struggles in our elementary history classes, I sort of treaded the readings as a story of a long gone era, utterly failing to acknowledge the continuation of the fight that we’ve clearly lost sight of, especially after the complacency we were put in by a dictator and the chaos and hard recovery that soon followed. Maybe I was just not “woke” enough. But weirdly, even with access to all this information, the youth of my country today are more aware of foreign popculture than their own history. Perhaps that is how the system as molded us as a people but I wish we would take initiative to seek information beyond their own circles instead of reaffirming their biases (despite the obvious difficulty due to social media algorithms). We are known to be resilient people due to the all the hardships we suffer from natural (and man-made) disasters but the fact of the matter is, these are consequences of a system built to control the mass into ignorance and apathy. The ruse of democracy can only be made possible if the people are burdened with heavier issues: their basic daily needs to survive. What better way to keep in power but by to keep those who make that possible unaware of multiple infringement of their human rights. The Filipinos are a hard-working people, we’re not resilient because we want to be but because that is the only way we know to be.
Now, I don’t presume to be the person to solve this issue (nor do I think it’s a task of just one person) but I hope I can be a small cog of the slightest significance in affecting some change towards progress anyway.
So if you’re someone who is trying to figure out a way to combat the threat to democracy in our lifetime against the ‘‘autocrats’ twelve-step program’ formulated by the author (which was funny yet eerie enough to evoke a nervous laughter), maybe this book can help you.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
August 8, 2020
Larry Diamond is de autoriteit op het gebied van democratisering. Wederom een zeer inspirerend boek.
November 29, 2020
This book focuses on democratic principles and uses historical models from around the world to show the fight between democracy and authoritarianism. My daughter recommended it to me (it was the BYU Kennedy Center’s book of the year for 2020). The author is a Stanford professor and democracy fighter/mentor. For the last 40 years he’s helped government leaders (around the world) strengthen young democracies and he’s also watched in horror as places like Hungary have gone from a thriving democracy to an authoritarian regime in not much more than a decade. I found his discussion about different countries’ success or failure with democracy inspiring and troubling.
He outlines ways autocrats (like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin) sabotage democracy (especially in the use of technology, which is quite alarming), to empower themselves not just in their own countries, but in other countries around the world. Since the U.S. has always been a powerhouse, helping either to build freedom in other countries or to pull back into her shell and leave other democracies to wither without her support and guidance, the author makes a good argument about the cause of freedom being attached to our power (or weakness) in this area. If we are a strong democracy (and yes, I know we’re a republic, but we’re a democratic republic, not an authoritarian republic—so for this review, I’m focusing on democratic principles), we (by our example and influence) strengthen other countries that have long-lasting or newly begun democracies and therefore promote more freedom around the world. But when we become isolationist (as we have under Trump), freedom starts dying around the world (which the author has lots of data to support this), due to the growing influence of China and Russia (who are itching to take our place as power players to other governments and thus increase their world dominion).
The author spends the last half of the book giving ideas (long-term) of how to reenergize a waning democracy (which he contends the U.S. is right now). He believes we don’t have to give way to the ill winds of complacency that have gradually been eroding our faith in democratic principles (free elections, a critical media, an independent justice system, etc). We can turn the tide back to where we thrive as a nation as we get back in touch with democratic ideals and uphold them. This quote is one area we all have need to improve in (no matter which party you support):
“A culture of democracy is also a culture of moderation. Democracy can’t function when politics is dominated by opposing camps of “true believers” who view compromise as betrayal and dismiss discordant evidence as fake. Democracy also requires a tone of civility and mutual respect. When contending politicians and activists vilify one another as evil and immoral, the rules of the democratic game can get stretched surprisingly quickly—often even to the point of violence, which is toxic to democratic stability….”
Right now, in the US, both sides are very polarized, instead of being civil and working together for the common good. The author had some great strategies to work toward fixing this problem, which entails (at the simplest level), limiting the power of the two major parties so that Congressmen and state legislatures aren’t so beholden to party money to stay in power if they don’t “toe the line.” That is the dream, but this book made it seem possible, if enough of us fight for change and avoid hate, so that leaders again work for what is good for the country (not their party).
I found this book riveting and very informative. It was written in a way that was easy to read and understand. I highly recommend it to anyone who’d like to know more about freedom and ideas on how to keep and strengthen it (here and abroad).
He outlines ways autocrats (like Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin) sabotage democracy (especially in the use of technology, which is quite alarming), to empower themselves not just in their own countries, but in other countries around the world. Since the U.S. has always been a powerhouse, helping either to build freedom in other countries or to pull back into her shell and leave other democracies to wither without her support and guidance, the author makes a good argument about the cause of freedom being attached to our power (or weakness) in this area. If we are a strong democracy (and yes, I know we’re a republic, but we’re a democratic republic, not an authoritarian republic—so for this review, I’m focusing on democratic principles), we (by our example and influence) strengthen other countries that have long-lasting or newly begun democracies and therefore promote more freedom around the world. But when we become isolationist (as we have under Trump), freedom starts dying around the world (which the author has lots of data to support this), due to the growing influence of China and Russia (who are itching to take our place as power players to other governments and thus increase their world dominion).
The author spends the last half of the book giving ideas (long-term) of how to reenergize a waning democracy (which he contends the U.S. is right now). He believes we don’t have to give way to the ill winds of complacency that have gradually been eroding our faith in democratic principles (free elections, a critical media, an independent justice system, etc). We can turn the tide back to where we thrive as a nation as we get back in touch with democratic ideals and uphold them. This quote is one area we all have need to improve in (no matter which party you support):
“A culture of democracy is also a culture of moderation. Democracy can’t function when politics is dominated by opposing camps of “true believers” who view compromise as betrayal and dismiss discordant evidence as fake. Democracy also requires a tone of civility and mutual respect. When contending politicians and activists vilify one another as evil and immoral, the rules of the democratic game can get stretched surprisingly quickly—often even to the point of violence, which is toxic to democratic stability….”
Right now, in the US, both sides are very polarized, instead of being civil and working together for the common good. The author had some great strategies to work toward fixing this problem, which entails (at the simplest level), limiting the power of the two major parties so that Congressmen and state legislatures aren’t so beholden to party money to stay in power if they don’t “toe the line.” That is the dream, but this book made it seem possible, if enough of us fight for change and avoid hate, so that leaders again work for what is good for the country (not their party).
I found this book riveting and very informative. It was written in a way that was easy to read and understand. I highly recommend it to anyone who’d like to know more about freedom and ideas on how to keep and strengthen it (here and abroad).
May 6, 2025
Larry Diamond’s “Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency,” argues that democracy is imperiled. Authoritarianism, he advances, is on the rise and democracy has been suffering a recession since the early 2000s. However, Professor Diamond’s book is a disordered brew. The book contains much acute analysis and many perceptive policy prescriptions; however, that said, Diamond has an overweening belief that the American national security apparatus is non-partisan and committed to legal norms, our mainstream media is unbiased, and that truth-seeking political scientists may be able to employ mathematical models- such as ranked voting- and bipartisan commissions to heal the divisiveness in our politics.
Diamond briefly outlines why democracies succeed or fail, then outlines a list of current threats. China under Xi Jinping and Russia under Vladimir Putin are two grave dangers to democracy on the world stage, through their ability to wield both hard and “sharp” power. Diamond asserts that U.S. democracy is decaying from within, due to citizen apathy, voter polarization, gerrymandering, political finance, the electoral college, and other factors. In sum, Diamond suggests that the United States currently lacks the skill or the will to support democracy at home and abroad.
Unfortunately, Diamond often resorts to hyperbole. He offers that we live in the age of Trump, Orban and Putin- a conflation that bears little serious scrutiny, notwithstanding Trump’s rhetoric. He has boundless faith in the FBI and the CIA- agencies that actively engaged in election interference in 2016 and 2020; he suggests that requiring voter ID is really voter suppression; he believes ranked voting- a scheme that often causes election results to be delayed for weeks, and violates one man one vote- will create a more robust democracy; he believes USAID is integral in funding democratic institutions- i.e., the same agency that funded sex reassignment surgeries in Guatemala and poppy cultivation in Afghanistan; and he argues that social media is a boon for democracy- despite the US government’s collusion with Google to censor American citizens.
Democratic sclerosis is a bipartisan affliction. Despite Trump’s bombast, it was the Biden State Department that collected dossiers on people who they felt had an objectionable online presence; and he warns about “deep fakes” the very term that the Biden team and the mainstream media frequently used to deceive Americans about the President’s cognitive decline.
Voters are not always rational and are frequently not very informed- such is one more problem with ranked choice voting. Americans are irrefutably a polarized nation; therefore, political parties should be careful in interpreting narrow victories as sweeping mandates. Both Trump and Biden- or whomever was actually making the decisions in the Biden White House- grossly overplayed their hands. Hence, voters reacted by altering course. This may be a tacit sign of democratic health and resiliency.
Diamond’s book comes amidst a plethora of new works on the global democratic crisis. He offers a thorough analysis of the worldwide challenges to democracy today, along with many recommendations. Diamond accurately attributes most of the blame for this global democratic recession on Russia and China, and he laments the trends that he has identified. But as T.S. Eliot noted, “there is no such thing as a Lost Cause, because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause.”
Diamond briefly outlines why democracies succeed or fail, then outlines a list of current threats. China under Xi Jinping and Russia under Vladimir Putin are two grave dangers to democracy on the world stage, through their ability to wield both hard and “sharp” power. Diamond asserts that U.S. democracy is decaying from within, due to citizen apathy, voter polarization, gerrymandering, political finance, the electoral college, and other factors. In sum, Diamond suggests that the United States currently lacks the skill or the will to support democracy at home and abroad.
Unfortunately, Diamond often resorts to hyperbole. He offers that we live in the age of Trump, Orban and Putin- a conflation that bears little serious scrutiny, notwithstanding Trump’s rhetoric. He has boundless faith in the FBI and the CIA- agencies that actively engaged in election interference in 2016 and 2020; he suggests that requiring voter ID is really voter suppression; he believes ranked voting- a scheme that often causes election results to be delayed for weeks, and violates one man one vote- will create a more robust democracy; he believes USAID is integral in funding democratic institutions- i.e., the same agency that funded sex reassignment surgeries in Guatemala and poppy cultivation in Afghanistan; and he argues that social media is a boon for democracy- despite the US government’s collusion with Google to censor American citizens.
Democratic sclerosis is a bipartisan affliction. Despite Trump’s bombast, it was the Biden State Department that collected dossiers on people who they felt had an objectionable online presence; and he warns about “deep fakes” the very term that the Biden team and the mainstream media frequently used to deceive Americans about the President’s cognitive decline.
Voters are not always rational and are frequently not very informed- such is one more problem with ranked choice voting. Americans are irrefutably a polarized nation; therefore, political parties should be careful in interpreting narrow victories as sweeping mandates. Both Trump and Biden- or whomever was actually making the decisions in the Biden White House- grossly overplayed their hands. Hence, voters reacted by altering course. This may be a tacit sign of democratic health and resiliency.
Diamond’s book comes amidst a plethora of new works on the global democratic crisis. He offers a thorough analysis of the worldwide challenges to democracy today, along with many recommendations. Diamond accurately attributes most of the blame for this global democratic recession on Russia and China, and he laments the trends that he has identified. But as T.S. Eliot noted, “there is no such thing as a Lost Cause, because there is no such thing as a Gained Cause.”
April 22, 2022
Larry Diamond lays out some of the biggest threats to democracy and offers some suggestions to alleviate the decline. I didn't find any of his suggestions particularly new or innovative. I did appreciate his explanation and endorsement of ranked choice voting.
Notes:
pg 24
"High levels of corruption are not only a cause of democratic failure but an effect of decadent institutions. Thus the path to controlling corruption-through robust accountability, the rule of law, and a vigorous civil society-is also the path to sustainable democracy."
pg 31
"When people are educated at least through high school, it broadens their outlook on life. They become more tolerant of differences and nuances. This inclines them to become more active, informed, and rational citizens, and thus restrains them from being seduced by extremists. Increasingly, though, in wealthy countries like the United States, college seems to be the educational threshold that brings these benefits.)"
pg 36
Ranked Choice Voting
"...has been used for a century to elect Australia's lower house of parliament. Under this system, a candidate in a single-member district must get a majority of the vote or nearly) to win. But instead of voting for just one candidate, people rank their choices-giving candidates a one, two, three, and so on. If no one wins a majority of the first-preference votes, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, and those ballots are then recast for those voters' second choices. This process continues in an 'instant runoff' until someone wins a majority."
pg 88
"Democracy is never vanquished by the actions of a lone autocrat. It takes a complicit and divided legislature, court system, and civil society to let an autocrat get away with it."
pg 116
"...two online communities (each with a quarter of a million members or more) organized rival protests at an Islamic center in Houston on May 21 2016. One group Heart of Texas, mobilized to 'Stop Islamization of Texas.' The other, United Muslims of America rallied to 'Save Islamic Knowledge.' Neither group was Texan or American in origin; they were both established and run from St. Petersburg, Russia, by paid trolls whose job it was to tear American society apart."
pg 198
"We cannot reverse the worldwide surge of authoritarianism unless we rein in its accomplice, kleptocracy. While the West's liberal democracies now account for less than half of the global economy, they remain the principal financial and cultural destinations for ill-gotten wealth. This gives these democracies enormous leverage."
pg 262
"...ranked choice voting may open up the possibility of a new kind of race-one in which for example, the real contest is not between two establishment parties but between a Tea Party Republican and an independent who is still fairly conservative but tempered enough to win the second-place votes of most Democrats along with the first-place votes of most independents and some more moderate Democrats and Republicans. ... Ranked choice voting could also mean more civil politics. It is hard to 'go negative' against multiple opponents-particularly if you think you will probably need the second and third preference votes of their followers later on. Voters in municipalities with ranked choice voting view their election campaigns as less negative than do voters in cities without it."
Notes:
pg 24
"High levels of corruption are not only a cause of democratic failure but an effect of decadent institutions. Thus the path to controlling corruption-through robust accountability, the rule of law, and a vigorous civil society-is also the path to sustainable democracy."
pg 31
"When people are educated at least through high school, it broadens their outlook on life. They become more tolerant of differences and nuances. This inclines them to become more active, informed, and rational citizens, and thus restrains them from being seduced by extremists. Increasingly, though, in wealthy countries like the United States, college seems to be the educational threshold that brings these benefits.)"
pg 36
Ranked Choice Voting
"...has been used for a century to elect Australia's lower house of parliament. Under this system, a candidate in a single-member district must get a majority of the vote or nearly) to win. But instead of voting for just one candidate, people rank their choices-giving candidates a one, two, three, and so on. If no one wins a majority of the first-preference votes, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated, and those ballots are then recast for those voters' second choices. This process continues in an 'instant runoff' until someone wins a majority."
pg 88
"Democracy is never vanquished by the actions of a lone autocrat. It takes a complicit and divided legislature, court system, and civil society to let an autocrat get away with it."
pg 116
"...two online communities (each with a quarter of a million members or more) organized rival protests at an Islamic center in Houston on May 21 2016. One group Heart of Texas, mobilized to 'Stop Islamization of Texas.' The other, United Muslims of America rallied to 'Save Islamic Knowledge.' Neither group was Texan or American in origin; they were both established and run from St. Petersburg, Russia, by paid trolls whose job it was to tear American society apart."
pg 198
"We cannot reverse the worldwide surge of authoritarianism unless we rein in its accomplice, kleptocracy. While the West's liberal democracies now account for less than half of the global economy, they remain the principal financial and cultural destinations for ill-gotten wealth. This gives these democracies enormous leverage."
pg 262
"...ranked choice voting may open up the possibility of a new kind of race-one in which for example, the real contest is not between two establishment parties but between a Tea Party Republican and an independent who is still fairly conservative but tempered enough to win the second-place votes of most Democrats along with the first-place votes of most independents and some more moderate Democrats and Republicans. ... Ranked choice voting could also mean more civil politics. It is hard to 'go negative' against multiple opponents-particularly if you think you will probably need the second and third preference votes of their followers later on. Voters in municipalities with ranked choice voting view their election campaigns as less negative than do voters in cities without it."
January 20, 2025
“Ill Winds” is at its best when Diamond makes informed, expert recommendations to tackle the concrete problems of Chinese aggression and Russian misinformation campaigns, or when he offers specific suggestions about how to combat foreign (and domestic) kleptocracy and America’s partisan gridlock. Unfortunately, “Ill Winds” spends a lot of real estate lamenting how mean and indecorous people (Trump) will destroy liberal democracy unless we return to the ethos of democracy’s second wave in the 1960s, which is where Diamond cut his professional teeth. This isn’t said outright as much as it is strongly and repeatedly implied, and the tired platitudes on democracy’s inherent goodness just sound outmoded at this point.
Democracy is the best political system we have, but crummy people ruin it. Donald Trump receives chapters worth of pillorying in “Ill Winds,” and he pretty much deserves it, but he’s not really the problem. The problem is that purveyors of liberal democracy have simply failed to deliver since around the 1970s. Politicians are more interested in lining their pockets and padding their personal prestige than they are in governing. Big business buys off anyone and everyone, and Main Street can’t bother pulling its face out of online conspiracy theories long enough to educate itself civically. Neighbors are too busy, or too absorbed in the virtual world, to know each other and form community bonds. Trump just taps into the worst in everyone and profits off it. He’s far from the worst offender of liberal democracy.
This is the problem with “Ill Winds.” It assumes democracy as it always has been is the only ticket to a bright future. It assumes everyone, regardless of geography, religion, or culture will come around to acknowledging democracy’s supremacy if they were just honest with themselves.
As I said at the outset, Diamond seems to know this at some level, because toward the middle to back half of the book he gets really specific and interesting. We learn how he suggests we combat China and Russia online, how we can stand up to kleptocracy and help its victims do so as well, how we can reinvigorate the US political system, etc. This is all interesting and deeply insightful.
There’s just too much backward looking and tired assumptions in “Ill Winds.” But Diamond proves his mettle when he looks forward. If he trimmed the city on a hill rhetoric to just the introduction and the conclusion, and expanded the concrete ideas in the latter part of the middle section, this book would be indispensable. As is, it’s partially valuable but mostly annoying.
Democracy is the best political system we have, but crummy people ruin it. Donald Trump receives chapters worth of pillorying in “Ill Winds,” and he pretty much deserves it, but he’s not really the problem. The problem is that purveyors of liberal democracy have simply failed to deliver since around the 1970s. Politicians are more interested in lining their pockets and padding their personal prestige than they are in governing. Big business buys off anyone and everyone, and Main Street can’t bother pulling its face out of online conspiracy theories long enough to educate itself civically. Neighbors are too busy, or too absorbed in the virtual world, to know each other and form community bonds. Trump just taps into the worst in everyone and profits off it. He’s far from the worst offender of liberal democracy.
This is the problem with “Ill Winds.” It assumes democracy as it always has been is the only ticket to a bright future. It assumes everyone, regardless of geography, religion, or culture will come around to acknowledging democracy’s supremacy if they were just honest with themselves.
As I said at the outset, Diamond seems to know this at some level, because toward the middle to back half of the book he gets really specific and interesting. We learn how he suggests we combat China and Russia online, how we can stand up to kleptocracy and help its victims do so as well, how we can reinvigorate the US political system, etc. This is all interesting and deeply insightful.
There’s just too much backward looking and tired assumptions in “Ill Winds.” But Diamond proves his mettle when he looks forward. If he trimmed the city on a hill rhetoric to just the introduction and the conclusion, and expanded the concrete ideas in the latter part of the middle section, this book would be indispensable. As is, it’s partially valuable but mostly annoying.
August 27, 2024
Read this book for a course of theoretical Democracy. While it is a very insightful book, there is a major problem that is apparent both in this book and others by this author. Firstly its pros:
1. The book gives an extremely detailed and specific definition of populism. The definition given in this book (to which is there a full chapter for) is one that I have used every time I refer a populist leader or state. If there’s one thing to take away from this book, it’s populism.
2. Provides great analysis of major authoritarian/totalitarian regimes. China, Russia, and the DPRK are a few examples.
3. Probably the most interesting part of this book is going over Western democratic backsliding. He goes over populist leaders in Europe and the United Stares and gives us a comprehensive breakdown of how they’re a threat to democracy and world peace.
While there are great parts of this book, there is a major issue both with Ill Winds and other books by Larry Diamond and authors in this field. This being the very Western-centric perspective that is often not reflective or accepting of modern political realities. Notably, his rejection of any ideologies apart from liberal democracy are all grouped together. This leads to ideologies such as communism to be roped in with Marxism-Leninism and then totalitarianism. This is a weak spot in this book as it strips the detailed analysis that populism is given and leads to a (relatively) misrepresentation of political ideologies. Also, there often isn’t an analysis through critical analysis, such as material conditions. He’ll say the rise of extremist ideologies is one that happens through misinformation and weak regulation, but doesn’t mention a poor standard of living. A lack of analysis like this is ultimately what gives this book a lower rating despite having great analysis for most of it
1. The book gives an extremely detailed and specific definition of populism. The definition given in this book (to which is there a full chapter for) is one that I have used every time I refer a populist leader or state. If there’s one thing to take away from this book, it’s populism.
2. Provides great analysis of major authoritarian/totalitarian regimes. China, Russia, and the DPRK are a few examples.
3. Probably the most interesting part of this book is going over Western democratic backsliding. He goes over populist leaders in Europe and the United Stares and gives us a comprehensive breakdown of how they’re a threat to democracy and world peace.
While there are great parts of this book, there is a major issue both with Ill Winds and other books by Larry Diamond and authors in this field. This being the very Western-centric perspective that is often not reflective or accepting of modern political realities. Notably, his rejection of any ideologies apart from liberal democracy are all grouped together. This leads to ideologies such as communism to be roped in with Marxism-Leninism and then totalitarianism. This is a weak spot in this book as it strips the detailed analysis that populism is given and leads to a (relatively) misrepresentation of political ideologies. Also, there often isn’t an analysis through critical analysis, such as material conditions. He’ll say the rise of extremist ideologies is one that happens through misinformation and weak regulation, but doesn’t mention a poor standard of living. A lack of analysis like this is ultimately what gives this book a lower rating despite having great analysis for most of it
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
April 16, 2022
This book, with two main themes, starts out a bit like How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them but diverges during that first theme as it moves from an inward reflection of events in the United States to one reflections of authoritarian regimes with an emphasis on China and Russia.
I did appreciate Diamonds statement that It’s important to separate poor decisions from actions thwarting democracy. Trump’s decision to quit the Trans Pacific Partnership being an example of the former while demanding loyalty and firing leaders of, previously, independent departments like the FBI is the later. Inciting riots and attempts to overthrow the 2020 election are yet others.
The second primary theme is an itemization of actions we can take. Many of the things Diamond says need be done with Putin are being done now that Ukraine was invaded. Diamond likens Putin to a thief walking a neighborhood trying doors and, when finding one unlocked, robs it. All democracies must be vigilant. In this regard, Diamond's writing show prescience.
TBH, the later section of the book ran on too long and few of the recommendations can be taken on by an individual. That said, Diamond’s book does highlight the world’s shift away from democracies and towards authoritarian regimes that should give us all pause.
I think I liked How Civil Wars Start better than Ill Winds. I like how Diamond highlighted both China and Russia and, while too long for me, the chapters on actions should be required reading of elected officials. I’d rank it 3.5 on the Goodreads scale but round up due to relevance.
I did appreciate Diamonds statement that It’s important to separate poor decisions from actions thwarting democracy. Trump’s decision to quit the Trans Pacific Partnership being an example of the former while demanding loyalty and firing leaders of, previously, independent departments like the FBI is the later. Inciting riots and attempts to overthrow the 2020 election are yet others.
The second primary theme is an itemization of actions we can take. Many of the things Diamond says need be done with Putin are being done now that Ukraine was invaded. Diamond likens Putin to a thief walking a neighborhood trying doors and, when finding one unlocked, robs it. All democracies must be vigilant. In this regard, Diamond's writing show prescience.
TBH, the later section of the book ran on too long and few of the recommendations can be taken on by an individual. That said, Diamond’s book does highlight the world’s shift away from democracies and towards authoritarian regimes that should give us all pause.
I think I liked How Civil Wars Start better than Ill Winds. I like how Diamond highlighted both China and Russia and, while too long for me, the chapters on actions should be required reading of elected officials. I’d rank it 3.5 on the Goodreads scale but round up due to relevance.
December 21, 2019
A fabulous book that I heard about through the Wall Street Journal, Ill Winds was incredibly compelling, and helped me to understand the broader scope of how democracy in our world is doing. Diamond is effective at articulating the importance of supporting democratic norms at home and abroad. Peppered in with Diamond's effective analysis are inspirational stories of unjustly imprisoned persons from all around the world that are yet committed to breaking the authoritarian rule that plagues their home countries. Diamond then closes with effective things we can do close to home to support democratic ideals. For myself, I am contacting certain groups such as RepresentUs to see how Arizona can improve its electoral system. It provides an exciting opportunity for us to really make substantive change in our communities that will have powerful and long-lasting effects for generations to come.
June 29, 2020
Other than Tocqueville's "Democracy in America," Larry Diamond's "Ill Winds" is the best book I've read on the broad topic of American democracy. It serves as a perfect counterpoint to those who would have the United States willfully abdicate its position as a beacon of hope and freedom for the world. Diamond focuses primarily on our principle antagonists at the moment – China and Russia – as both are currently engaged in efforts to undermine our own government, as well as the decades of progress that have been made related to the spread of global freedom. His defense of American leadership, soft power, and free and fair elections rings especially true as we move into what will hopefully be the final year of the Trump presidency.
December 25, 2019
4.5 stars! A revealing, but disturbing look into the ailments afflicting autocracies and a good number of democracies in trouble around the world. Larry Diamond argues that to counter the trend, the U.S. must lead and advocate for democratic principles and values (by example at home and by direct engagement abroad). It’s obvious that the author has a particular political preference, but whatever side of the political aisle the reader may be, I highly recommend reflecting on his recommendations for strengthening and reinvigorating the health of our own domestic democratic structures.
August 27, 2019
The book summarizes comprehensively the latest political trends around the world. It doesn't go too deep into political science and remains accessible for the general public. Together with describing the problems modern democracies face, the author provides numerous ideas on how to solve some of the listed issues.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
(that's how democracies die)
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
(that's how democracies die)
February 19, 2020
I wish I could give this book 10 stars! It is a well researched, thoroughly documented, and eminently readable analysis of the fate and future of democracy in the world today. The challenges are so immediate and menacing, that it could seem futile and terrifying, but he gives rational, doable proposals for pushing back on the darkness. Above all he communicates the upbeat sense that if the people want it, democracy will triumph. But it won’t happen without courage and work.
September 16, 2019
This book does an excellent job of summing up democratic erosion around the world, and making the case for why it needs to be stopped. I had the pleasure of speaking with Larry for a podcast I host about democracy. We talk specifically about China's threat to liberal democracy, but also touch on some of the other themes in Ill Winds: https://www.democracyworkspodcast.com...
October 13, 2019
If you fear for our democracy, for civility, and for America, read this book. This is not about left vs. right, but democracy vs. autocracy. This Hoover Institution scholar has so much to say about the state of democracy here and around the world. Read, discuss, and pass this one on to people who agree with you, and those who might not!
October 15, 2020
“We are at a precarious moment—the most dangerous I have seen in my forty-year career as a scholar of democracy.” writes Larry Diamond whose book is an informative distillation of both the range of threats to democracy in the US and around the world today as well as forty years of lessons for how to improve democracy’s chances. A timely and valuable read
December 28, 2020
Excellent overview of democratic challenge, read just months after my start at NED. Diamond’s arguments are lucid and the passion is clear, especially in the parts about Trump’s threat to American democracy. He’s spot on with his take on China, but a little light on details as he sweeps through pretty big themes.
November 29, 2024
what an informative read. i think people on both sides can find understanding and meaning behind - at the very least - parts of this book. although parts of this felt more politically inciting rather than educational, diamond makes a compelling argument and i would recommend this to people interested in the trump-anti-democracy rhetoric.
April 9, 2020
Intoxicatingly informative, thought-provoking and necessarily objective. An understanding every American needs, especially in our current political climate. Would be an awesome classroom read in a politics course.
December 2, 2019
Very well done, balanced and comprehensive
December 2, 2020
I expected better
March 10, 2021
Readable take on some worrisome trends in global democracy from one of the foremost academics in the field.
May 13, 2021
More a political commentary with selective information than a thesis supported by research. I skimmed last third.
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