Before the Collapse: A Guide to the Other Side of Growth

by Ugo Bardi

Nobody has to tell you that when things go bad, they go bad quickly and seemingly in bunches. Complicated structures like buildings or bridges are slow and laborious to build but, with a design flaw or enough explosive energy, take only seconds to collapse. This fate can befall a company, the stock market, or your house or town after a natural disaster, and the metaphor extends to economies, governments, and even whole societies. As we proceed blindly and incrementally in one direction or another, collapse often takes us by surprise. We step over what you will come to know as a “Seneca cliff”, which is named after the ancient Roman philosopher, Lucius Annaeus Seneca, who was the first to observe the ubiquitous truth that growth is slow but ruin is rapid. Modern science, like ancient philosophy, tell us that collapse is not a bug; it is a feature of the universe. Understanding this reality will help you to see and navigate the Seneca cliffs of life, or what Malcolm Gladwell called “tipping points.” Efforts to stave off collapse often mean that the cliff will be even steeper when you step over it. But the good news is that what looks to you like a collapse may be nothing more than the passage to a new condition that is better than the old.
This book gives deeper meaning to familiar adages such as “it’s a house of cards”, “let nature take its course”, “reach a tipping point”, or the popular Silicon Valley expression, “fail fast, fail often.” As the old Roman philosopher noted, “nothing that exists today is not the result of a past collapse”, and this is the basis of what we call “The Seneca Strategy.” This engaging and insightful book will help you to use the Seneca Strategy to face failure and collapse at all scales, to understand why change may be inevitable, and to navigate the swirl of events that frequently threaten your balance and happiness. You will learn:

How ancient philosophy and modern science agree that failure and collapse are normal features of the universe
Principles that help us manage, rather than be managed by, the biggest challenges of our lives and times
Why technological progress may not prevent economic or societal collapse
Why the best strategy to oppose failure is not to resist at all costs
How you can “rebound” after collapse, to do better than before, and to avoid the same mistakes.

242 pages, Paperback

Published October 18, 2019

About the author

Ugo Bardi is a polymath who started his career as a chemist working on oil refining, to gradually move to study peak oil and then the trajectory toward collapse that society is following nowadays. He was a faculty member of the University of Florence, Italy. Now he is a member of the executive committee of the Club of Rome, a think tank located in Switzerland, known for having supported "The Limits to Growth" study of 1972.

Ugo is known for several studies in the field of biophysical economics, and his best known proposal is that of the "Seneca Effect," a way to explain why collapses are frequent in our world; so named after the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeas Seneca

Ugo's books have been imaginative essays dealing with several facets of the human interaction with Earth. How we overexploit resources, how we generate heavy pollution, how we overpopulate the land. And what we can expect for the future in a vision that looks for harmony with the Goddess of Earth, Gaia.

Ugo's most recent books are is "Limits and Beyond" (Exapt Press, 2022), and "Exterminations" (Kimaira Edizioni, 2024). His next book, in preparation, may be titled "The End of Overpopulation"

Reviews

[ª · Rating 2 out of 5]

le pondria tres estrellas si no fuera porq de vez en cuando suelta las opiniones politicas mas boomers q podeis imaginar

[The Inquisitive Biologist · Rating 4 out of 5]

Since collapse is a feature rather than a bug, we might just as well get good at recognising it. Before The Collapse provides plenty of examples and food for thought. See my full review at https://inquisitivebiologist.com/2020...

[Swen · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book looks at the phenomenon of collapse as an essential feature of the over-time developement of complex systems. According to the book, until a certain point, the collapse of a complex system (examples in the book range from man-made physical structures to whole societies and the Earth's ecosystem) can still be avoided by reducing the stress imposed on critical parts of the system. Once the system's developement has passed by this certain point, efforts should be focused on preparing for the pending collapse to mitigate its consequences to the greatest degree possible.
The book's discussion of complex system collapses begins with an insight first put forward by the ancient roman philosopher Seneca: The collapse of a system tends to be a lot more rapid than its previous growth. But, what follows in the book is based almost exclusively on modern scientific research and mainly on the relatively new science of complex systems.
Having been hardly exposed to complex systems science before, I found the book, at least in major part, interesting and informative enough. A subject referred to time and again in the book is global warming and its potentially disastrous consequences. So you may find reading it rewarding if you care about this issue (as every responsible citizen of the world should in my opinion).
There is also one chapter in the book in which strategies for managing collapse are discussed. One of the strategies covered is exploiting collapse to your own advantage. I found it a bit disappointing that this section is limited to the discussion of strategies for creating collapse in order to bring down an enemy. There was nothing about (what I had expected) using collapses that happen to you as an opportunity to build new and better structures from scratch.
This personal criticism aside, I consider the book an informative and accessible primer on what modern science has to say about the collapse of complex systems.

[Robin · Rating 4 out of 5]

A 3.5 star is more apt. I rounded it up as the book nothwithstanding it's limitations highlights a critical issue worth much more discussion than the contemporary culture is willing to give it.
The recovery for discussions are understandably glossed over as it is always hard when it comes to putting forth unambiguous propositions. It is more of a discussion. The book could have been structured better. There are instances of quite profound & thought provoking articulations put nonchalantly and sometimes without further exploration. There are also places where the book isn't able to free itself from conventionally employed tropes especially when discussing history and social sciences.

All that being said, I still recommend the book.

[Logan Streondj · Rating 4 out of 5]

It's an okay book, lots of sources, but seems to ignore peak oil and non viability of large scale renewables, also ignores agriculture. All in all it's a book of many blindspots, but good research on the few things it does cover.

Mostly it's a book about Seneca Cliffs, bottlenecks, and rebounds. If it was named or at least subtitled Seneca Cliff, it would be more appropriate. It mentions how zombies are same as hungry people more or less, so yeah, some good insights.

Also mentions Edo Japan as possible sustainable model, will read about that next.

Worth archival? Maybe.

[Javier Forment · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good review about why collapse is a feature, not a bug, in natural systems, so that we must be prepared. Nothing new, but it's well narrated and has a good, clear insight about the issue and the coming collapse of modern civilization based on fosil fuels and neoliberalism as a force driving politics and economics.

[Alan Eyre · Rating 3 out of 5]

An expanded, less scholarly treatment of theme he covered in 'The Seneca Effect' -collapse in complex systems. Some good bits, but also had many factual errors and what I considered sloppy thinking.

[AttackGirl · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have changed my mind about references at the end of each chapter!