Finding Genius is a three-part book about entrepreneurship, venture capital (VC), and the technological evolution of the past decades and beyond. Based on the interviews with prominent early-stage investors, Mr. Mehta offers his insights into how entrepreneurial skills are developed, how investors identify genius founders, and the mechanics in fundraising. In the introduction, Mr. Mehta states that the book is written to guide young aspiring entrepreneurs with basic knowledge on venture capital. To me, the book addresses a much bigger audience of anyone who is simply curious about the how the world is evolving
On entrepreneurship, Mr. Mehta finds several common traits found among the great entrepreneurs: desire to accept risk, ability to construct a vision and sell it to others (storytelling), conviction in one's self, and magnet for talent. To what extent these traits are innate versus nurtured is debatable. Yet, it seems that great entrepreneurs grew up and thrived in an unstructured environment. With greater risk tolerance, they have courage to push themselves outside comfort zones. 'Antifragility' is a skill that can only be built over one's lifetime and cannot easily be identified in a 10-minute stock pitch. I have wondered why these early-stage investors are eager to listen to how founders grew up - no wonder we often come across immigrant founders, who have become more anti-fragility through constant challenge and struggle, succeeds in scaling their businesses (e.g. Elon Musk, Vladimir Tenev of Robinhood)
On VC, I was pleasantly surprised by the depth and breadth of the subjects covered. The incentives of General Partners versus Limited Partners, story of Trae Stephens of Palantir & Founder's Fund and how the operational background, rather than a financial one, could build an information edge of a venture investor, and how the 'thesis-driven investing' at a16z ("software eats the world") and USV ("invest in large members of engaged users, differentiated by user experience and defensive through network effects") guides VC's investment decisions
On technological evolution, my favorite part of the book, Mr. Mehta invites prominent venture investors to introduce us to the ongoing disruptions in IT, finance, consumer, and healthcare. As much as Mr. Mehta emphasizes 'storytelling' as a must-have talent in raising VC money, some of the featured investors were great storytellers themselves. It was helpful to digest key concepts in AI, automation, healthcare, and social media, but the most insightful was how they were presented in a framework of investment theses. For example, looking at the lens of entertainment, community, status, utility, and privacy helped me understand how Tiktok and Instagram were able to prey on Facebook's lack of status and entertainment in the platform. Looking back, technological advances have brought so many changes to our daily lives during the past decade (I bought my first smartphone in 2014 ). Looking forward, disruptions will only accelerate, and the structural vulnerabilities in labor force (automation), healthcare system (direct-to-consumer diagnostics), education/ student debt (income-sharing models of boot-camps that put the educational providers' skin in the game), and finance (Robinhood, Better.com, and Lemonade appeal to millennials more than do traditional financial institutions post-GFC) will be tackled sooner or later
As an individual, it is not easy to get exposure to early-stage investing. For example, only accredited investors have the privilege to access venture capital. Yet, 'finding genius' offers one way to evaluate management quality of publicly listed companies. Only a handful of managers, for example, have exhibited 'ability to construct vision' and 'magnet for talent' (e.g. NIDEC and SHIFT in Japan). After all, whether be it an early-stage or mature, public listed companies, 'finding genius' in management is what sets apart the 'ten baggers' from the averages
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(Note to myself)
- Labor shortage is an issue in the ST. But even during the height of COVID, automation was a big theme. Bain says $8tn will be invested in automation during 2020s. Labor shortage/ inflation fears will surely be transitory if we look in a ten-year span!
- AI -> ML -> DL (e.g. Face ID, speech recognition) / Reinforced learning (e.g. robot path in a warehouse)
- SaaS / RaaS (Robot as a Service): By reducing the burden associated with high capex and unproven ROI, it reduces not only the lifetime cost but also the overall cost of capital for operators
- Automation key concepts: 1) sense the environment, 2) store, process, and communicate the sensory info (i.e. filter and organize data), and 3) leverage SW to define insights from the organized data. SENSE - camera, sonar (sound and echo measure distance), Radar (RF 3D mapping), Lidar (light beams 3D mapping). Americans spend 6.9bn hours on traffic
- AI - ANI (Narrow), AGI (General). ANI is already prevalent (e.g. RPA)
- Fintech: Will there be 'financial supermarkets' for credit cards, insurance, etc.? Can Amazon-like platform emerge? Regulation/ compliance makes it hard to super-charge growth in fintech
- HC: Americans are low-informed and/o r passive with healthcare. With WHOOP, Livongo, and Maven Care, Direct-to-consumer diagnostics will disrupt the incumbents. Hardware is much cheaper versus 10 years. Doctors and HC professionals will be resistant at first (like Blockbuster was) but those who embrace first shall prevail (like Netflix)