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The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World
In the immediate aftermath of September 11, 2001, in his fourteenth year as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan took part in a very quiet collective effort to ensure that America didn't experience an economic meltdown, taking the rest of the world with it. There was good reason to fear the worst: the stock market crash of October 1987, his first major crisis as Federal Reserve Chairman, coming just weeks after he assumed control, had come much closer than is even today generally known to freezing the financial system and triggering a genuine financial panic. But the most remarkable thing that happened to the economy after 9/11 was...nothing. What in an earlier day would have meant a crippling shock to the system was absorbed astonishingly quickly.
After 9/11 Alan Greenspan knew, if he needed any further reinforcement, that we're living in a new world - the world of a global capitalist economy that is vastly more flexible, resilient, open, self-directing, and fast-changing than it was even 20 years ago. It's a world that presents us with enormous new possibilities but also enormous new challenges. The Age of Turbulence is Alan Greenspan's incomparable reckoning with the nature of this new world - how we got here, what we're living through, and what lies over the horizon, for good and for ill-channeled through his own experiences working in the command room of the global economy for longer and with greater effect than any other single living figure. He begins his account on that September 11th morning, but then leaps back to his childhood, and follows the arc of his remarkable life's journey through to his more than 18-year tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, from 1987 to 2006, during a time of transforming change.
Alan Greenspan shares the story of his life first simply with an eye toward doing justice to the extraordinary amount of history he has experienced and shaped. But his other goal is to draw readers along the same learning curve he followed, so they accrue a grasp of his own understanding of the underlying dynamics that drive world events. In the second half of the book, having brought us to the present and armed us with the conceptual tools to follow him forward, Dr. Greenspan embarks on a magnificent tour de horizon of the global economy. He reveals the universals of economic growth, delves into the specific facts on the ground in each of the major countries and regions of the world, and explains what the trend-lines of globalization are from here. The distillation of a life's worth of wisdom and insight into an elegant expression of a coherent worldview, The Age of Turbulence will stand as Alan Greenspan's personal and intellectual legacy.
A Timeline of a Remarkable Career
Mar. 6, 1926: Born in New York City. At 10 sees Roosevelt campaigning; becomes expert on the 1936 Yankees. Takes up clarinet at 12.
1943-44: Studies clarinet at Julliard
Mid 1944: Joins Henry Jerome Band
1948: Graduates (summa cum laude) from New York University. (He later earns a master's in 1950 and a Ph.D. in 1977, also from NYU.) Hired as economic analyst at the Conference Board.
1954-74: Co-founds Townsend-Greenspan & Co. Inc., an economic consulting firm in New York City. (He returns in 1977.)
1974: Nominated by President Ford as chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors. Chair of bipartisan National Commission on Social Security Reform.
June 1, 1987: Nominated by President Reagan for Fed Chair. Confirmed by Senate August 3.
Oct. 19, 1987: Only 69 days into Greenspan's term, the Dow drops 508 points and 22%.
July 10, 1991: Nominated by President George H.W. Bush to a second term as Fed Chairman. Later nominated to a third (February 22, 1996) and fourth term (January 4, 2000) by President Clinton.
Apr. 6, 1997: Marries Andrea Mitchell
May 18, 2004: Nominated by President George W. Bush for a fifth term as Fed chairman
Jan. 31, 2006: Completes 18 ½ years at the Fed
Feb. 1, 2006: Forms Greenspan Associates LLC, an economic consulting firm
Alan Greenspan's Top 10 Classical and Jazz Favorites
Before Alan Greenspan embarked on his legendary financial career, he studied the clarinet at Julliard and played as a professional jazz musician (while doing tax returns for his bandmates). He chose 10 favorites for us from a lifetime of listening, including:
Mozart, Piano Concerto No. 23
Vivaldi, Complete Cello Concertos
Coleman Hawkins, "Body and Soul"
531 pages, Hardcover
First published September 17, 2007
556 people are currently reading
5050 people want to read
About the author
Alan Greenspan
61 books185 followersAlan Greenspan is an American economist who served as the 13th chairman of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006. He worked as a private adviser and provided consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates LLC.
First nominated to the Federal Reserve by President Ronald Reagan in August 1987, he was reappointed at successive four-year intervals until retiring on January 31, 2006, after the second-longest tenure in the position, behind only William McChesney Martin. President George W. Bush appointed Ben S. Bernanke as his successor. Greenspan came to the Federal Reserve Board from a consulting career. Although he was subdued in his public appearances, favorable media coverage raised his profile to a point that several observers likened him to a "rock star". Democratic leaders of Congress criticized him for politicizing his office because of his support for Social Security privatization and tax cuts.
Many have argued that the "easy-money" policies of the Fed during Greenspan's tenure, including the practice known as the "Greenspan put", were a leading cause of the dot-com bubble and subprime mortgage crisis (the latter occurring within a year of his leaving the Fed), which, said The Wall Street Journal, "tarnished his reputation". Yale economist Robert J. Shiller argues that "once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed". Greenspan argues that the housing bubble was not a result of low-interest short-term rates but rather a worldwide phenomenon caused by the progressive decline in long-term interest rates – a direct consequence of the relationship between high savings rates in the developing world and its inverse in the developed world.
First nominated to the Federal Reserve by President Ronald Reagan in August 1987, he was reappointed at successive four-year intervals until retiring on January 31, 2006, after the second-longest tenure in the position, behind only William McChesney Martin. President George W. Bush appointed Ben S. Bernanke as his successor. Greenspan came to the Federal Reserve Board from a consulting career. Although he was subdued in his public appearances, favorable media coverage raised his profile to a point that several observers likened him to a "rock star". Democratic leaders of Congress criticized him for politicizing his office because of his support for Social Security privatization and tax cuts.
Many have argued that the "easy-money" policies of the Fed during Greenspan's tenure, including the practice known as the "Greenspan put", were a leading cause of the dot-com bubble and subprime mortgage crisis (the latter occurring within a year of his leaving the Fed), which, said The Wall Street Journal, "tarnished his reputation". Yale economist Robert J. Shiller argues that "once stocks fell, real estate became the primary outlet for the speculative frenzy that the stock market had unleashed". Greenspan argues that the housing bubble was not a result of low-interest short-term rates but rather a worldwide phenomenon caused by the progressive decline in long-term interest rates – a direct consequence of the relationship between high savings rates in the developing world and its inverse in the developed world.
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October 30, 2007
Blaise Pascal apologized to a correspondent for a long letter because he didn’t have time to make it short. Alan Greenspan may have been similarly constrained.
The Age of Turbulence consists of three main parts in its 505 pages. The first half is an autobiography where we learn of his New York roots, his love of music and the development of the economic analyst and political entrepreneur. Next are chapters reviewing the economic development of China, India, Russia and Latin America. The final chapters are devoted to Greenspan’s view of the “big themes,” including education, an aging demographic, corporate governance and energy.
The autobiographical material is smartly paced, but drops more names than page 6 of the New York Post. Many lines are devoted to his active social life. For example, in the early days of his relationship with Andrea Mitchell, he tells of having to turn down her invitation to a Washington press black tie event because he was already going with Barbara Walters. Swell.
The major disappointments come from the balance of the book where too often he paints with a very wide brush.
As an example, he asserts that Amaranth’s failure in 2006 didn’t cause the problems of LTCM’s collapse because our free markets had become better risk shifters over eight years. He omits the fact that virtually all investment banks and broker dealers in 1998 held similar positions to LTCM, while very few people were exposed to Amaranth’s natural gas positions. The financial dominoes were lined up in 1998 for a massive fall that the Fed avoided. If 2007's liquidity events had happened before the book went to press, the truth could not have been side stepped.
Similar blurring of details surrounds the 1987 Crash and other major events of Greenspan’s tenure. But more disappointing is the hyperbole that one simply cannot believe. In the chapter on governance, he begins by stating he had never seen a company “fall from icon to pariah to virtual nonexistence so quickly” as when the market stopped extending credit to Enron. Was he asleep at the helm when Drexel, a most venerated and successful brokerage house went bankrupt almost overnight after it faced RICO charges and lost the confidence of its creditors? One finds it impossible to believe Greenspan’s grasp of these events is as loose as it appears.
Perhaps these generalizations were meant to appeal to a broader target audience than professional economists, bankers, or market participants. If that is true, however, then one struggles to understand how Chapter 18, Current Accounts and Debt, ever made the final cut. Reciting lists of statistics so numbingly dull that his various Congressional testimonies almost sound pithy, Greenspan tries to demonstrate how deficits (probably) matter. Unfortunately, by the time we follow the logic and the data, we lose sight of why we should care about the problem.
In the end, we are left with a flawed book by a talented, if honorable, man. Individuals named seem to include only “friends” and “close friends.” Perhaps this was done because a gentleman, having little good to say about someone, says nothing at all. But there are many invisible actors in this history, including at least a couple of Vice Chairmen at the Fed, who are today wondering whether they actually went to work for all those years.
This is, without a doubt, the only shot we’ll get from Greenspan. That is too bad. Many would rather have seen a detailed look of what it was like to run the Fed for almost two decades. That is something from which we could have learned. This history is way too shallow to afford a true understanding of events. And for those who are looking for the libertarian case for economic growth, go back to Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom or almost anything by Hayek. Both of those great minds spent the time necessary to write the proverbial short letter.
The Age of Turbulence consists of three main parts in its 505 pages. The first half is an autobiography where we learn of his New York roots, his love of music and the development of the economic analyst and political entrepreneur. Next are chapters reviewing the economic development of China, India, Russia and Latin America. The final chapters are devoted to Greenspan’s view of the “big themes,” including education, an aging demographic, corporate governance and energy.
The autobiographical material is smartly paced, but drops more names than page 6 of the New York Post. Many lines are devoted to his active social life. For example, in the early days of his relationship with Andrea Mitchell, he tells of having to turn down her invitation to a Washington press black tie event because he was already going with Barbara Walters. Swell.
The major disappointments come from the balance of the book where too often he paints with a very wide brush.
As an example, he asserts that Amaranth’s failure in 2006 didn’t cause the problems of LTCM’s collapse because our free markets had become better risk shifters over eight years. He omits the fact that virtually all investment banks and broker dealers in 1998 held similar positions to LTCM, while very few people were exposed to Amaranth’s natural gas positions. The financial dominoes were lined up in 1998 for a massive fall that the Fed avoided. If 2007's liquidity events had happened before the book went to press, the truth could not have been side stepped.
Similar blurring of details surrounds the 1987 Crash and other major events of Greenspan’s tenure. But more disappointing is the hyperbole that one simply cannot believe. In the chapter on governance, he begins by stating he had never seen a company “fall from icon to pariah to virtual nonexistence so quickly” as when the market stopped extending credit to Enron. Was he asleep at the helm when Drexel, a most venerated and successful brokerage house went bankrupt almost overnight after it faced RICO charges and lost the confidence of its creditors? One finds it impossible to believe Greenspan’s grasp of these events is as loose as it appears.
Perhaps these generalizations were meant to appeal to a broader target audience than professional economists, bankers, or market participants. If that is true, however, then one struggles to understand how Chapter 18, Current Accounts and Debt, ever made the final cut. Reciting lists of statistics so numbingly dull that his various Congressional testimonies almost sound pithy, Greenspan tries to demonstrate how deficits (probably) matter. Unfortunately, by the time we follow the logic and the data, we lose sight of why we should care about the problem.
In the end, we are left with a flawed book by a talented, if honorable, man. Individuals named seem to include only “friends” and “close friends.” Perhaps this was done because a gentleman, having little good to say about someone, says nothing at all. But there are many invisible actors in this history, including at least a couple of Vice Chairmen at the Fed, who are today wondering whether they actually went to work for all those years.
This is, without a doubt, the only shot we’ll get from Greenspan. That is too bad. Many would rather have seen a detailed look of what it was like to run the Fed for almost two decades. That is something from which we could have learned. This history is way too shallow to afford a true understanding of events. And for those who are looking for the libertarian case for economic growth, go back to Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom or almost anything by Hayek. Both of those great minds spent the time necessary to write the proverbial short letter.
August 9, 2011
One can't help coming to this book with the starting premise that, smart of this man was, he got it wrong. Wrong about beating inflation, wrong about being too laissez faire on financial regulation, wrong about keeping rates and policy too loose for too long. Indeed one embarks on this book asking how Greenspan explains himself.
For all that though it's an educational read. The first half is more interesting, as Greenspan discusses his career history as a pioneering industrial economist, and then his political involvement with various White House administrations. The second half is less interesting, not because his opinions on the economic future of the US and her trading partners, or on issues of demography, productivity, technology, corporate governance, regulation, etc, are not worth reading, but because they are not especially unique. Perhaps the one thing that stood out here was his belief that by 2030, inflation in the US will be 4-5% -- because the disinflationary forces of globalisation and IT driven productivity will have been maximised, concomitantly the developing country savings pool will also have stopped expanding -- and US long term bond yields could be 8%. (This was published in 2007.) This was ironic to me because people see the Greenspan Fed as thinking they beat inflation -- which perhaps they did, but at least he attributes it to structural forces and doesn't take the credit for himself as suggested.
So how does Greenspan fare in the first half? I'm not American, so perhaps I'm more forgiving. He comes across as a policy-maker whose instinctive stance is hawkish, but turned less so for various reasons.
In 1991 he was hawkish, and remained so through the mid 1990s during which the Fed pulled off a soft landing. In the late 90s, though, he came to believe the IT boom had led to a permanent improvement in productivity, which allowed an above trend growth rate without leading to inflation -- allowing the Fed to remain more dovish on rates. This was compounded in 1998 by the Russian debt crisis he felt any tightening could be destabilising in the fragile environment, and that this risk over-weighed the potential inflationary risk from a dovish stance. Then in the lead up to the dot com bubble, the Fed backed away again from watching asset prices, deciding that any attempt to control the bubble by raising rates would be futile, and hence going back to watching CPI inflation. They did raise rates though. But after 9/11, rates were lowered aggressively -- again because of fear that Fed tightening might destabilise markets (it does seem here the Fed believed its actions matters to asset prices on the way down but not on the way up). Rates were further lowered in 2003 because in the aftermath of the dot com bust there were concerns over deflation. Yet shortly after, house prices started rising sharply -- Greenspan notes this but his discussion of rates ends here, rather blurred over.
Other interesting tidbits are his positive views on the Henry Ford and Clinton administrations, and negative ones on the 2 Bush administrations. In addition, he is a fiscal hawk, and makes the case for fiscal conservatism very convincingly. On this point it surprised me greatly that in the final years of Clinton's house, in 2000, the Treasury was in a budget surplus and was actually forecasting a very high level of surpluses going forward, to the extent that they expected to pay down the US debt fully within a decade and then have the problem of the Fed not being able to execute Open Market Operations because there was no US debt market. (Incidentally I believe Singapore doesn't need to incur debt either as our books balance regularly but the government issues debt in order to have a SG bond yield curve and presumably also for policy flexibility.) This gave Bush II the political ammunition with which to push through his tax cuts -- even though after the dot com crash and before the cuts were implemented the budget deficit sank sharply and surprisingly into a large deficit; amazingly the forecasters hadn't realised the significant impact of capital gains tax returns that reversed sharply following the 2001 dotcom crash.
So, all in all, a read that starts out interesting, gets a little tedious but is overall worth the time. Even if you disagree with, dislike, or disrespect Greenspan, he was Fed governor for 18 years and his perspective is worth knowing.
For all that though it's an educational read. The first half is more interesting, as Greenspan discusses his career history as a pioneering industrial economist, and then his political involvement with various White House administrations. The second half is less interesting, not because his opinions on the economic future of the US and her trading partners, or on issues of demography, productivity, technology, corporate governance, regulation, etc, are not worth reading, but because they are not especially unique. Perhaps the one thing that stood out here was his belief that by 2030, inflation in the US will be 4-5% -- because the disinflationary forces of globalisation and IT driven productivity will have been maximised, concomitantly the developing country savings pool will also have stopped expanding -- and US long term bond yields could be 8%. (This was published in 2007.) This was ironic to me because people see the Greenspan Fed as thinking they beat inflation -- which perhaps they did, but at least he attributes it to structural forces and doesn't take the credit for himself as suggested.
So how does Greenspan fare in the first half? I'm not American, so perhaps I'm more forgiving. He comes across as a policy-maker whose instinctive stance is hawkish, but turned less so for various reasons.
In 1991 he was hawkish, and remained so through the mid 1990s during which the Fed pulled off a soft landing. In the late 90s, though, he came to believe the IT boom had led to a permanent improvement in productivity, which allowed an above trend growth rate without leading to inflation -- allowing the Fed to remain more dovish on rates. This was compounded in 1998 by the Russian debt crisis he felt any tightening could be destabilising in the fragile environment, and that this risk over-weighed the potential inflationary risk from a dovish stance. Then in the lead up to the dot com bubble, the Fed backed away again from watching asset prices, deciding that any attempt to control the bubble by raising rates would be futile, and hence going back to watching CPI inflation. They did raise rates though. But after 9/11, rates were lowered aggressively -- again because of fear that Fed tightening might destabilise markets (it does seem here the Fed believed its actions matters to asset prices on the way down but not on the way up). Rates were further lowered in 2003 because in the aftermath of the dot com bust there were concerns over deflation. Yet shortly after, house prices started rising sharply -- Greenspan notes this but his discussion of rates ends here, rather blurred over.
Other interesting tidbits are his positive views on the Henry Ford and Clinton administrations, and negative ones on the 2 Bush administrations. In addition, he is a fiscal hawk, and makes the case for fiscal conservatism very convincingly. On this point it surprised me greatly that in the final years of Clinton's house, in 2000, the Treasury was in a budget surplus and was actually forecasting a very high level of surpluses going forward, to the extent that they expected to pay down the US debt fully within a decade and then have the problem of the Fed not being able to execute Open Market Operations because there was no US debt market. (Incidentally I believe Singapore doesn't need to incur debt either as our books balance regularly but the government issues debt in order to have a SG bond yield curve and presumably also for policy flexibility.) This gave Bush II the political ammunition with which to push through his tax cuts -- even though after the dot com crash and before the cuts were implemented the budget deficit sank sharply and surprisingly into a large deficit; amazingly the forecasters hadn't realised the significant impact of capital gains tax returns that reversed sharply following the 2001 dotcom crash.
So, all in all, a read that starts out interesting, gets a little tedious but is overall worth the time. Even if you disagree with, dislike, or disrespect Greenspan, he was Fed governor for 18 years and his perspective is worth knowing.
December 22, 2007
This book is interesting on many levels. First, for all his elusiveness while in office at the Fed (which he says was intentional and refers to as "fedspeak"), Greenspan writes clearly, directly, and entertainingly. There's a clear humanity to the writing - and the story - that came as quite a shock. Yes, Greenspan was a mathematics and economics geek from an early age. But he was also a professional musician when he was younger, and knowing things like that makes it a lot easier to follow him through the story, which at times delves deep into the guts of the economy. It helps the reader trust him, that he'll explain so we can understand. He also uses this part of the book to lay the foundations of economic theory as they stood then, and to follow their evolution through the story at hand.
And explain he does. Greenspan's service in the federal government began in the Ford era, during the financial turmoil of the day - double digit inflation, economic stagnation, Nixon's prior attempts at wage and price control. He details the Whip Inflation Now - WIN - program, which I can vaguely recall seeing buttons for (along with the more sarcastic LOSE buttons), and why the program didn't - and couldn't work). He goes into considerable detail of why the economy was the way it was then.
And so the story proceeds, from Ford, skipping Carter, to Reagan, Bush1, Clinton, and Bush2. Politically, Greenspan seems to settle in the small-l libertarian range, and so his biggest problems with government are when populism or special interest result in runaway spending and/or pork spending in Congress. As a result, he has great respect for Ford, under whose administration inflation finally was whipped by raising interest rates - but the rebound came too late to save Ford's election. He comments little on Carter, as he wasn't in the business at the time. He had great hopes for the Reagan administration, but they weren't realized because once again, Congress couldn't keep the purse strings closed. Skipping ahead, it's surprising (at least, to anyone who hasn't read the reviews), that he had great respect for the Clinton administration. He felt Clinton had a good understanding of the economy, and used his veto powers effectively to control federal spending. Which, in Greenspan's eyes, all went to hell with Bush2 and the Republican Congress.
He covers Black Friday, the fall of the Berlin wall (with intriguing insight into how the market economies that came up in formerly-Eastern Blok countries succeeded or failed due to factors of the societies, and the way the changes were executed )the growth and bursting of the internet bubble, the growth and bursting of the realestate bubble, and, of course, 9/11. All the major economic events of the last 30+ years, all the ones I can remember, he covers from the inside, and details what was done, by who, and why to try and make the economy work better.
And, of course, he lays out how the future might go, projecting forward for the next 30 years what might happen in the U.S., England, China, Japan, Europe, and Russia.
The book gets drier and drier as you go from Greenspan's life and the turbulent events he witnessed further into theory and prediction, and by the end, it's a bit of a slog through.
It's worth reading. It takes a long time to digest once it's read. And if economics is a new subject for you, you might want to read "Economics for Dummies" first, as I did, so you have some framework to absorb what he's saying.
And explain he does. Greenspan's service in the federal government began in the Ford era, during the financial turmoil of the day - double digit inflation, economic stagnation, Nixon's prior attempts at wage and price control. He details the Whip Inflation Now - WIN - program, which I can vaguely recall seeing buttons for (along with the more sarcastic LOSE buttons), and why the program didn't - and couldn't work). He goes into considerable detail of why the economy was the way it was then.
And so the story proceeds, from Ford, skipping Carter, to Reagan, Bush1, Clinton, and Bush2. Politically, Greenspan seems to settle in the small-l libertarian range, and so his biggest problems with government are when populism or special interest result in runaway spending and/or pork spending in Congress. As a result, he has great respect for Ford, under whose administration inflation finally was whipped by raising interest rates - but the rebound came too late to save Ford's election. He comments little on Carter, as he wasn't in the business at the time. He had great hopes for the Reagan administration, but they weren't realized because once again, Congress couldn't keep the purse strings closed. Skipping ahead, it's surprising (at least, to anyone who hasn't read the reviews), that he had great respect for the Clinton administration. He felt Clinton had a good understanding of the economy, and used his veto powers effectively to control federal spending. Which, in Greenspan's eyes, all went to hell with Bush2 and the Republican Congress.
He covers Black Friday, the fall of the Berlin wall (with intriguing insight into how the market economies that came up in formerly-Eastern Blok countries succeeded or failed due to factors of the societies, and the way the changes were executed )the growth and bursting of the internet bubble, the growth and bursting of the realestate bubble, and, of course, 9/11. All the major economic events of the last 30+ years, all the ones I can remember, he covers from the inside, and details what was done, by who, and why to try and make the economy work better.
And, of course, he lays out how the future might go, projecting forward for the next 30 years what might happen in the U.S., England, China, Japan, Europe, and Russia.
The book gets drier and drier as you go from Greenspan's life and the turbulent events he witnessed further into theory and prediction, and by the end, it's a bit of a slog through.
It's worth reading. It takes a long time to digest once it's read. And if economics is a new subject for you, you might want to read "Economics for Dummies" first, as I did, so you have some framework to absorb what he's saying.
January 10, 2021
I took a very long, unhurried time to read this, mostly over the last year, and I wouldn’t give an off-hand recommendation for it without knowing a lot about the possible reader. But I found it interesting (not in the weakly pejorative sense), rewarding, and worth my time.
The first part of the book is engrossing as memoir and sweeping twentieth century political and economic history. This section would be an easier, less-constrained recommendation.
What follows is a patchwork of many varied topical academic-professional essays on economic history, philosophy, monetary policy, and the like. There is some story here, which adds color and relevance, but it’s more like the reflective lectures of a grad school economics class, only given by one of the most experienced and powerful practitioners of the time.
Here my recommendation would be for those with a fairly serious interest in macroeconomics as a subject or as it relates to policy or business interest. It’s not particularly technical and is easily accessible to the interested reader, but that interested reader, especially this far out from the original publication, will be a niche one.
That interested reader need not be well
in sync with Greenspan’s policies, philosophies, or politics to appreciate the book, though if you have strong feelings and adamantly opposed opinions from the start, and are easily irritated by the idea of Greenspan, I don’t know why you would bother reading it.
While it’s Greenspan’s book, I found it had the overall neutral tone of the lecturer whose interest is more to educate and present data and principle than to preach, persuade, of even particularly to defend. I didn’t find the voice self-aggrandizing or even overtly self-serving, though again, it’s Greenspan’s book.
Though I wondered how dated it would feel to read this now, it was actually interesting to reflect on his context, actions, and opinions with a bit of historical reference, amusing even in parts to be the peanut gallery with the benefit of having lived the interim and able to shake my head at the changes new context brings, at how some things did not hold up well at all, others seem even more wrong today than they did back then, and a few others seem eerily prescient.
I won’t put this on my read-again shelf, but if I found myself lock-downed for a while with only this book in the room, I wouldn’t be opposed to picking it up again.
The first part of the book is engrossing as memoir and sweeping twentieth century political and economic history. This section would be an easier, less-constrained recommendation.
What follows is a patchwork of many varied topical academic-professional essays on economic history, philosophy, monetary policy, and the like. There is some story here, which adds color and relevance, but it’s more like the reflective lectures of a grad school economics class, only given by one of the most experienced and powerful practitioners of the time.
Here my recommendation would be for those with a fairly serious interest in macroeconomics as a subject or as it relates to policy or business interest. It’s not particularly technical and is easily accessible to the interested reader, but that interested reader, especially this far out from the original publication, will be a niche one.
That interested reader need not be well
in sync with Greenspan’s policies, philosophies, or politics to appreciate the book, though if you have strong feelings and adamantly opposed opinions from the start, and are easily irritated by the idea of Greenspan, I don’t know why you would bother reading it.
While it’s Greenspan’s book, I found it had the overall neutral tone of the lecturer whose interest is more to educate and present data and principle than to preach, persuade, of even particularly to defend. I didn’t find the voice self-aggrandizing or even overtly self-serving, though again, it’s Greenspan’s book.
Though I wondered how dated it would feel to read this now, it was actually interesting to reflect on his context, actions, and opinions with a bit of historical reference, amusing even in parts to be the peanut gallery with the benefit of having lived the interim and able to shake my head at the changes new context brings, at how some things did not hold up well at all, others seem even more wrong today than they did back then, and a few others seem eerily prescient.
I won’t put this on my read-again shelf, but if I found myself lock-downed for a while with only this book in the room, I wouldn’t be opposed to picking it up again.
January 10, 2009
It took me an extraordinary amount of time to finish this book. When I first started, I dug in with excited vigor, eager to learn what drives our economy. I am a lover of the complex and global economics is about is complex as it gets. Mr. Greenspan begins the book detailing where he was during the events that transpired on September 11th, 2001. He describes how his flight from Zurich was re-routed back to Switzerland where he awaited news of his wife, news correspondent Andrea Mitchell who might have been at the Pentagon. During this intense period of time, Mr Greenspan also had to deal with the stability of the U.S. economy as it reacted to the perceived financial destruction and oozed fear. The compelling and charged beginning launched me into this well constructed biography.
I have tremendous respect for this self made man. He is much more well rounded then is commonly known. He is an accomplished saxophone player and jammed professionally with the likes of Stan Getz. For a hard-lined Republican and self described Libertarian, he has remained remarkably apolitical during his tenure as chairman of the Fed. Through Ford, Carter, Regan, Bush Sr. Clinton and Bush Jr., he has been consistent with his fiscal policies. As a younger man, he was partially ideologically molded by Ayn Rand and her fellow New York Objectivists. I have read both The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged so I know the dogma, I get the dogma and from a purely personal perspective, I subscribe to a certain subset of Objectivist values. After reading this book, I can safely say that Alan Greenspan feels similarly. While he may buy into the notion that every human should have it in them to take care of themselves, he nonetheless supports a financial backbone that facilitates a wealth of socialized programs: public education, welfare, medicare, social security, fed backed securities and the list goes on.
I was in the middle of reading Turbulence when Alan Greenspan testified before the Senate Banking Committee stating that he did not see the massive collapse of global financial institutions coming. I didn’t expect him to, no rational thinking person could expect any one person to see that deep into such a chaotic and unpredictable system; that’s not what bothered me. His statements that day tainted the rest of the book. Many assertions I read were now followed by, “but, look what happened.” Many people blame Alan Greenspan personally for these global woes we’re experiencing. Many people feel that he should have foreseen corruption and illegal behavior. I sit before this keyboard and tell you that I cannot live in a society where I assume people will ignore the law. How would I ever coast confidently through a green light ever again?
I learned a fantastic amount of detail I will likely never be able to accurately recall about free market economies, China’s regulations, central banking throughout the world and the financial system supporting and spewed out of the oil industry. The oil industry is vastly more complicated that I could have ever, in my wildest imagination, dreamt. I can thank Alan Greenspan for a glimpse into the depths of this issue that will forever put a pause into my brain.
This is not a light read. It is beefy and meaty served with starch and gravy. It took me a very very long time to get through but I am glad I did it. If the middle did drag on a bit as details about every major world economies will, for the perspective I have briefly gained on the very fundamental structure on which our economy is based, I thank you, Mr. Greenspan.
I have tremendous respect for this self made man. He is much more well rounded then is commonly known. He is an accomplished saxophone player and jammed professionally with the likes of Stan Getz. For a hard-lined Republican and self described Libertarian, he has remained remarkably apolitical during his tenure as chairman of the Fed. Through Ford, Carter, Regan, Bush Sr. Clinton and Bush Jr., he has been consistent with his fiscal policies. As a younger man, he was partially ideologically molded by Ayn Rand and her fellow New York Objectivists. I have read both The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged so I know the dogma, I get the dogma and from a purely personal perspective, I subscribe to a certain subset of Objectivist values. After reading this book, I can safely say that Alan Greenspan feels similarly. While he may buy into the notion that every human should have it in them to take care of themselves, he nonetheless supports a financial backbone that facilitates a wealth of socialized programs: public education, welfare, medicare, social security, fed backed securities and the list goes on.
I was in the middle of reading Turbulence when Alan Greenspan testified before the Senate Banking Committee stating that he did not see the massive collapse of global financial institutions coming. I didn’t expect him to, no rational thinking person could expect any one person to see that deep into such a chaotic and unpredictable system; that’s not what bothered me. His statements that day tainted the rest of the book. Many assertions I read were now followed by, “but, look what happened.” Many people blame Alan Greenspan personally for these global woes we’re experiencing. Many people feel that he should have foreseen corruption and illegal behavior. I sit before this keyboard and tell you that I cannot live in a society where I assume people will ignore the law. How would I ever coast confidently through a green light ever again?
I learned a fantastic amount of detail I will likely never be able to accurately recall about free market economies, China’s regulations, central banking throughout the world and the financial system supporting and spewed out of the oil industry. The oil industry is vastly more complicated that I could have ever, in my wildest imagination, dreamt. I can thank Alan Greenspan for a glimpse into the depths of this issue that will forever put a pause into my brain.
This is not a light read. It is beefy and meaty served with starch and gravy. It took me a very very long time to get through but I am glad I did it. If the middle did drag on a bit as details about every major world economies will, for the perspective I have briefly gained on the very fundamental structure on which our economy is based, I thank you, Mr. Greenspan.
March 16, 2018
This book is a go-to resource for anyone with an interest in the economy, global studies and international and transdisciplinary perspectives in finance. What we have got is an extensively researched and profound discussion of key aspects of macroeconomics by Alan Greenspan, who is surprisingly easy to read, in spite of some of the dry technical aspects.
The book is divided into two parts. In the first part, the Author looks at his own life and biography. We find out he was a musician from a largely Jewish community in New York. We learnt of this family situation and how he became an entrepreneur in services directly after playing the trumpet and jam with known celebrities across the country. We hear about his famously following of Ayn Rand. We learnt how he became the FED chairman for nearly 2 decades and his relationships with Presidents from Nixon to George W. Bush.
The second part of this book is meatier and explains the macroeconomic situation of key regions in the world. We learn about Asian Tigers development prior to the Chinese takeoff and afterwards. The Chinese revolution from a largely agricultural to a more urban society undergoing quick urbanisation of the Pearl River Delta, following record internal migration and Greenspan concerns about the kind of growth the country is experiencing because of its non-democratic system and authoritarian nature of its regime but ending on a hopeful note that China may continue free-market reforms and propel the world to a more prosperous level in the process . We read about the situation in South America and its seemingly unending cycle of economic populism. We hear the story of how Margaret Thatcher modernised the UK and opened its borders to more integration and economic opportunities, despite its Fabian socialist roots. We read about India and its growing bureaucratic and governance issues and we learn about Australia's sprawling and successful economy. We read his discussion about Russia and how its eroding democratic system appears to be having economic consequences and what they could be in the future and we read a sobering account of the development and nature of the situation in continental Europe following the WWII to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the introduction of the Euro.
Above all, however, this book speaks from an American perspective and experience. Greenspan is a man of his time. I got a definite sensation of a man speaking from an industrial and wealthy point of view. Perhaps such things are unavoidable when you are the Fed Chairman for such a long time. At the end of this enriching book, we get some a surprising oracle of Delphi exercise.
There's a phenomenon I find happens a lot to older writers... some of them seem so focused on the past they lived, that it's a bit harder for them to look at the now and the future. You often get quite a few older authors appearing to be locked in their youth days and dismissive of the present. Greenspan attempts to get out of that particular straight jacket and instead of being lost speaking of the 50s or 60s, he looks at the past 200 years and makes a temporal correlation and analysis that allows readers to follow his mind track as he forecasted possible developments for the future. As this was written in 2007 and read (by me) on 2017 it's interesting how current and correct Greenspan's forecasts turned out to be. I am sorry he didn't dwell much on the 1987 and Asian crisis as I think there are important lessons in both sets of circumstances. But I note that above all, this is an intellectually demanding if generous book and deserves the 5 stars I am giving it.
The book is divided into two parts. In the first part, the Author looks at his own life and biography. We find out he was a musician from a largely Jewish community in New York. We learnt of this family situation and how he became an entrepreneur in services directly after playing the trumpet and jam with known celebrities across the country. We hear about his famously following of Ayn Rand. We learnt how he became the FED chairman for nearly 2 decades and his relationships with Presidents from Nixon to George W. Bush.
The second part of this book is meatier and explains the macroeconomic situation of key regions in the world. We learn about Asian Tigers development prior to the Chinese takeoff and afterwards. The Chinese revolution from a largely agricultural to a more urban society undergoing quick urbanisation of the Pearl River Delta, following record internal migration and Greenspan concerns about the kind of growth the country is experiencing because of its non-democratic system and authoritarian nature of its regime but ending on a hopeful note that China may continue free-market reforms and propel the world to a more prosperous level in the process . We read about the situation in South America and its seemingly unending cycle of economic populism. We hear the story of how Margaret Thatcher modernised the UK and opened its borders to more integration and economic opportunities, despite its Fabian socialist roots. We read about India and its growing bureaucratic and governance issues and we learn about Australia's sprawling and successful economy. We read his discussion about Russia and how its eroding democratic system appears to be having economic consequences and what they could be in the future and we read a sobering account of the development and nature of the situation in continental Europe following the WWII to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the introduction of the Euro.
Above all, however, this book speaks from an American perspective and experience. Greenspan is a man of his time. I got a definite sensation of a man speaking from an industrial and wealthy point of view. Perhaps such things are unavoidable when you are the Fed Chairman for such a long time. At the end of this enriching book, we get some a surprising oracle of Delphi exercise.
There's a phenomenon I find happens a lot to older writers... some of them seem so focused on the past they lived, that it's a bit harder for them to look at the now and the future. You often get quite a few older authors appearing to be locked in their youth days and dismissive of the present. Greenspan attempts to get out of that particular straight jacket and instead of being lost speaking of the 50s or 60s, he looks at the past 200 years and makes a temporal correlation and analysis that allows readers to follow his mind track as he forecasted possible developments for the future. As this was written in 2007 and read (by me) on 2017 it's interesting how current and correct Greenspan's forecasts turned out to be. I am sorry he didn't dwell much on the 1987 and Asian crisis as I think there are important lessons in both sets of circumstances. But I note that above all, this is an intellectually demanding if generous book and deserves the 5 stars I am giving it.
January 5, 2008
While I´ve always respected Greenspan, I had no idea he was such a renaissance man. The first half of the book, his biography, is fascinating. His first career was as a jazz musician - a musician who did the other bandmembers taxes, because he enjoyed it! He became a part of Ayn Rand´s circle, and she was actually a humanizing influence on him! Maybe I shouldn´t be surprised, but it isn´t exactly what I expected from the world´s leading living authority on economic matters.
As for the second half of the book, I also found it interesting, especially since several of his predictions have come to pass, even in the short period between the publication of the book and now, January of 2008. However, while the first half of the book makes good reading for anyone interested in learning a little bit about one of the most influential men of the last 30 years, the second half can be skipped by anyone who doesn´t have a more specialized interest in economics.
One thing that I found interesting was his discussions of happiness as it relates to individual economic welfare, and immigration. Greenspan has always been a proponent of free markets, in the belief that free markets are the most powerful engine for improving material well-being. He acknowledges, however, that it has become very clear in his career that there is not a straight-line correlation between increases in material prosperity and happiness. Once basic needs have been met, you don´t get happier as you get more - you have a brief spike in happiness as you reach a new level, and then happiness drops down to the baseline. Rather than the absolute level of material prosperity, your RELATIVE prosperity, (relative to your peers), becomes more important to your level of happiness. Take that as point one.
Second, overall happiness in the U.S. is low right now, in part because there is a large disperity between low income households and high income households. The disperity is caused by a shortage of highly educated individuals in certain fields. The fastest way to increase the number of highly educated people available, and therefore decrease the premium paid for their education, is to loosen the barriers to immigration for highly educated people. This will lower the incomes of the highest paid segment of the population, decreasing the wage disperity - and thereby increasing the overall level of happiness in the U.S. (Greenspan does not make this argument. He discusses relative wealth and happiness, and he discusses the shortage of highly educated people and how to alleviate it. If his claims are correct, however, my argument follows from his.)
I find this interesting becuase immigration and employment protection are two of the most sensitive issues in the country right now. Many people who are unhappy because they feel that their relative level of wealth has declined, want to limit immigration, so that ¨foreigners don´t steal our jobs.¨ Other groups prostest the WTO and World Bank as primary drivers of globalization, which is ¨stealing jobs from the poor around the world,¨ as well as from workers at home.
The irony is that, at least in the U.S., we don´t have any real worries about our absolute level of wealth. Most of us know where our next meal is coming from. It´s our relative level that decreases our happiness, and the best way to fix that is to encourage immigration, and discourage job protection. Those very people who don´t want immigrants stealing their jobs would be happier if we had more immigration.
There are many more small ironies to be found in ¨Age of Turbulence,¨ if you know where to look. A worthwhile read.
As for the second half of the book, I also found it interesting, especially since several of his predictions have come to pass, even in the short period between the publication of the book and now, January of 2008. However, while the first half of the book makes good reading for anyone interested in learning a little bit about one of the most influential men of the last 30 years, the second half can be skipped by anyone who doesn´t have a more specialized interest in economics.
One thing that I found interesting was his discussions of happiness as it relates to individual economic welfare, and immigration. Greenspan has always been a proponent of free markets, in the belief that free markets are the most powerful engine for improving material well-being. He acknowledges, however, that it has become very clear in his career that there is not a straight-line correlation between increases in material prosperity and happiness. Once basic needs have been met, you don´t get happier as you get more - you have a brief spike in happiness as you reach a new level, and then happiness drops down to the baseline. Rather than the absolute level of material prosperity, your RELATIVE prosperity, (relative to your peers), becomes more important to your level of happiness. Take that as point one.
Second, overall happiness in the U.S. is low right now, in part because there is a large disperity between low income households and high income households. The disperity is caused by a shortage of highly educated individuals in certain fields. The fastest way to increase the number of highly educated people available, and therefore decrease the premium paid for their education, is to loosen the barriers to immigration for highly educated people. This will lower the incomes of the highest paid segment of the population, decreasing the wage disperity - and thereby increasing the overall level of happiness in the U.S. (Greenspan does not make this argument. He discusses relative wealth and happiness, and he discusses the shortage of highly educated people and how to alleviate it. If his claims are correct, however, my argument follows from his.)
I find this interesting becuase immigration and employment protection are two of the most sensitive issues in the country right now. Many people who are unhappy because they feel that their relative level of wealth has declined, want to limit immigration, so that ¨foreigners don´t steal our jobs.¨ Other groups prostest the WTO and World Bank as primary drivers of globalization, which is ¨stealing jobs from the poor around the world,¨ as well as from workers at home.
The irony is that, at least in the U.S., we don´t have any real worries about our absolute level of wealth. Most of us know where our next meal is coming from. It´s our relative level that decreases our happiness, and the best way to fix that is to encourage immigration, and discourage job protection. Those very people who don´t want immigrants stealing their jobs would be happier if we had more immigration.
There are many more small ironies to be found in ¨Age of Turbulence,¨ if you know where to look. A worthwhile read.
March 12, 2008
The first half of the book is a pretty straight forward memoir. He details the beginning of his career, his consulting firms, old-school number crunching, and all the other things one would expect from an economist.
The second half of the book is a whirlwind "Around the world in 80 criticisms." Greenspan tells us what he thinks is wrong with every national economy. The answer is always "cut back government and let the market do its job" -- even in the fact of glaring inequalities like India. He doesn't quite sidestep issues of rapid advancement for some segments of society, but he fails to mention anything that would help those excluded from progress. Then again, that's the job of "The Invisible Hand" set forth by Adam Smith. Government interference would be the wrong thing to do.
I couldn't even finish it. I hoped I'd learn something about the man that oversaw the Federal Reserve that would explain some of the decisions that have placed our economy on the skids. Instead, I got really angry. I'm glad I borrowed this one rather than purchasing it.
The second half of the book is a whirlwind "Around the world in 80 criticisms." Greenspan tells us what he thinks is wrong with every national economy. The answer is always "cut back government and let the market do its job" -- even in the fact of glaring inequalities like India. He doesn't quite sidestep issues of rapid advancement for some segments of society, but he fails to mention anything that would help those excluded from progress. Then again, that's the job of "The Invisible Hand" set forth by Adam Smith. Government interference would be the wrong thing to do.
I couldn't even finish it. I hoped I'd learn something about the man that oversaw the Federal Reserve that would explain some of the decisions that have placed our economy on the skids. Instead, I got really angry. I'm glad I borrowed this one rather than purchasing it.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
December 27, 2007
Greenspan writes like he talks. The content is largely concerned with his logic and defense of his economic decisions during his reign at the FED. If it were up to him, we would have another 18 years of similar decisions. In his words, he is right and time may or may not justify his FED policies!! In a nutshell, he presents piles of ambiguity and loads of innuendo inserted among his nebulous terminolgy. He is a true master of economic and financial spin!
December 12, 2008
Interesting at first, because the book takes you in the world of one of the most influential people of late.
Disappointing at the end. I have the feeling he doesn't tell all he should have. He sure ain't telling how todays financial troubles started out.
Disappointing at the end. I have the feeling he doesn't tell all he should have. He sure ain't telling how todays financial troubles started out.
June 23, 2023
في يوم الحادي عشر من سبتمبر عام 2001، هزت أحداث مروعة العالم بأسره، وأثارت مخاوف حقيقية من احتمالية حدوث انهيار اقتصادي في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية. وفي تلك اللحظة الحرجة، كان جرينسبان، الرجل الذي شغل منصب رئيس بنك الاحتياط الفدرالي لمدة ١٤ عامًا، يقود جهوداً جماعية هادئة ومنظمة لضمان عدم حدوث الكارثة المالية التي تهدد العالم بأسره. وبعد الأسابيع المؤلمة التي تلت الحادث، لم يحدث أي شيء يذكر في الاق��صاد، ولم ينهار النظام المالي كما كان يُتوقع.
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وهذا الحدث يكشف عن عالم جديد، حيث تكون الحلول الهادئة والمنظمة هي الطريقة المثلى للتعامل مع الأزمات الكبيرة. ويعكس هذا الحدث تحدّيات الواقع المعقد الذي نعيش فيه، والذي يتطلب الابتكار والتكيّف للتغلب على الصعوبات وتجاوزها. ورغم أن هذا الحدث ليس الأول من نوعه، فإنه يذكرنا بأن النجاح في مثل هذه الظروف يتحقق بالتعاون والتنظيم والحزم.
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يعرض آلان جرنسبان في الكتاب تجاربه وتحليلاته حول الاقتصاد العالمي ويقدم مفهوم طبيعة الاضطرابات الاقتصادية التي يمر بها العالم، خلال فترة توليه منصب رئيس بنك الاحتياط الفدرالي لمدة 18 عامًا، من 1987 إلى 2006، وكيفية تعامله مع التحولات الاقتصادية التي شهدها العالم، بما في ذلك فترة ما بعد الحادي عشر من سبتمبر.
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ويتضمن الكتاب أيضًا رحلة حياة جرنسبان منذ طفولته وحتى توليه منصب رئيس البنك، مما يعطي القارئ فهمًا أكثر شمولية لرؤية جرنسبان وتحليلاته للحالة الاقتصادية العالمية.
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إذا كنت تهتم بالاقتصاد والشؤون المالية، فإن هذا الكتاب يعد مصدرًا قيمًا لك. فالكتاب ليس مجرد تحليل اقتصادي، بل هو رحلة شيقة في حياة شخص يتمتع بخبرة ومعرفة عميقة في القطاع المصرفي والاقتصادي، حيث يوفر رؤية شاملة وعميقة للتحولات الاقتصادية التي شهدها العالم في الفترة التي تولى فيها جرنسبان منصب رئيس البنك، ويساعدك أيضاً على فهم الديناميكيات الأساسية التي تحرك أحداث العالم. فلا تفوت فرصة الغوص في هذا الكتاب المؤثر والملهم، الذي يعكس تجربة حياةٍ حافلة بالإنجازات والتحديات.
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وهذا الحدث يكشف عن عالم جديد، حيث تكون الحلول الهادئة والمنظمة هي الطريقة المثلى للتعامل مع الأزمات الكبيرة. ويعكس هذا الحدث تحدّيات الواقع المعقد الذي نعيش فيه، والذي يتطلب الابتكار والتكيّف للتغلب على الصعوبات وتجاوزها. ورغم أن هذا الحدث ليس الأول من نوعه، فإنه يذكرنا بأن النجاح في مثل هذه الظروف يتحقق بالتعاون والتنظيم والحزم.
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يعرض آلان جرنسبان في الكتاب تجاربه وتحليلاته حول الاقتصاد العالمي ويقدم مفهوم طبيعة الاضطرابات الاقتصادية التي يمر بها العالم، خلال فترة توليه منصب رئيس بنك الاحتياط الفدرالي لمدة 18 عامًا، من 1987 إلى 2006، وكيفية تعامله مع التحولات الاقتصادية التي شهدها العالم، بما في ذلك فترة ما بعد الحادي عشر من سبتمبر.
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ويتضمن الكتاب أيضًا رحلة حياة جرنسبان منذ طفولته وحتى توليه منصب رئيس البنك، مما يعطي القارئ فهمًا أكثر شمولية لرؤية جرنسبان وتحليلاته للحالة الاقتصادية العالمية.
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إذا كنت تهتم بالاقتصاد والشؤون المالية، فإن هذا الكتاب يعد مصدرًا قيمًا لك. فالكتاب ليس مجرد تحليل اقتصادي، بل هو رحلة شيقة في حياة شخص يتمتع بخبرة ومعرفة عميقة في القطاع المصرفي والاقتصادي، حيث يوفر رؤية شاملة وعميقة للتحولات الاقتصادية التي شهدها العالم في الفترة التي تولى فيها جرنسبان منصب رئيس البنك، ويساعدك أيضاً على فهم الديناميكيات الأساسية التي تحرك أحداث العالم. فلا تفوت فرصة الغوص في هذا الكتاب المؤثر والملهم، الذي يعكس تجربة حياةٍ حافلة بالإنجازات والتحديات.
October 9, 2008
Revisited 10/8/08-
Okay so in light of the financial meltdown currently going on- I'd like to bring attention to my comments on Greenspan's flawed view of "minimally regulated capitalism"... I was right!!! The deregulation (and, in retrospect, easy credit years) of the Greenspan era isn't really Greenspan's fault, since this isn't the Fed's primary role. He has always advocated deregulation, however, and argued throughout his reign (and in his book) that that government regulators aren't capable of regulating complex and highly sophisticated derivatives and "innovative" financial products.
I dunno- how does the government create institutions that effectively regulate anything?!? The FDA and pharma/biopharma clinical trials? Regulation of all things nuclear? Stem cell research? These are not easily understood and regulated things, yet somehow the government doesn't throw its hands up and say "Well, looks like this is too tough to regulate. Better let 'the market' take care of this".
Summary: Good if you can get through it and know what to expect
Overall I liked it. Greenspan is basically a living legend and it was interesting to get his account of the economic events of the past 30 years, and predictions for the next 30. I would say however, that this book isn’t for everyone. It’s pretty damn dry- I would suggest some kind of econ or financial background, or at least a serious interest in monetary and fiscal policy. Even then, don’t expect to be blown away (contrary to The Economist review, which basically called it refreshing and readable). What do you expect from a central banker?
The book starts with a little peak into Greenspan’s personal life and upbringing (was a musician, consultant, and entrepreneur), and mentions by name all of the famous / A-list politicians and world leaders he is “friends” with (this eventually gets annoying and is sometimes pointless). He then moves on into his lengthy career at the Fed and provides comment for every major economic policy decision made during his tenure. Sprinkled throughout you’ll find all kinds of libertarian propaganda and his mantra- minimally regulated capitalism is resilient, flexible, and the economic system that provides the greatest hope for human advancement… The enterprising reader might supplement this read with “World on Fire”, “No Logo”, or “Theory of the Leisure Class” to understand the problems with that stance.
It doesn’t take much to figure out how one-sided his life has been and to some degree how it has guided his views. One of the most telling passages is about his first trip (in middle age) to Venice- when he “realizes” that not all societies are obsessed with progress and the advancement of GDP. I found it to be a bit sad actually…
For all of his raging republicanism, he takes some very liberal stances on education and immigration reform in the later chapters, though there are inherent contradictions in his views that he conveniently ignores (i.e. where one gets the funding for sweeping social programs like education overhaul).
Okay so in light of the financial meltdown currently going on- I'd like to bring attention to my comments on Greenspan's flawed view of "minimally regulated capitalism"... I was right!!! The deregulation (and, in retrospect, easy credit years) of the Greenspan era isn't really Greenspan's fault, since this isn't the Fed's primary role. He has always advocated deregulation, however, and argued throughout his reign (and in his book) that that government regulators aren't capable of regulating complex and highly sophisticated derivatives and "innovative" financial products.
I dunno- how does the government create institutions that effectively regulate anything?!? The FDA and pharma/biopharma clinical trials? Regulation of all things nuclear? Stem cell research? These are not easily understood and regulated things, yet somehow the government doesn't throw its hands up and say "Well, looks like this is too tough to regulate. Better let 'the market' take care of this".
Summary: Good if you can get through it and know what to expect
Overall I liked it. Greenspan is basically a living legend and it was interesting to get his account of the economic events of the past 30 years, and predictions for the next 30. I would say however, that this book isn’t for everyone. It’s pretty damn dry- I would suggest some kind of econ or financial background, or at least a serious interest in monetary and fiscal policy. Even then, don’t expect to be blown away (contrary to The Economist review, which basically called it refreshing and readable). What do you expect from a central banker?
The book starts with a little peak into Greenspan’s personal life and upbringing (was a musician, consultant, and entrepreneur), and mentions by name all of the famous / A-list politicians and world leaders he is “friends” with (this eventually gets annoying and is sometimes pointless). He then moves on into his lengthy career at the Fed and provides comment for every major economic policy decision made during his tenure. Sprinkled throughout you’ll find all kinds of libertarian propaganda and his mantra- minimally regulated capitalism is resilient, flexible, and the economic system that provides the greatest hope for human advancement… The enterprising reader might supplement this read with “World on Fire”, “No Logo”, or “Theory of the Leisure Class” to understand the problems with that stance.
It doesn’t take much to figure out how one-sided his life has been and to some degree how it has guided his views. One of the most telling passages is about his first trip (in middle age) to Venice- when he “realizes” that not all societies are obsessed with progress and the advancement of GDP. I found it to be a bit sad actually…
For all of his raging republicanism, he takes some very liberal stances on education and immigration reform in the later chapters, though there are inherent contradictions in his views that he conveniently ignores (i.e. where one gets the funding for sweeping social programs like education overhaul).
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
January 31, 2022
Overview:
Alan Greenspan served as the Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006. This book covers Greenspan’s early life, becoming an economist, intellectual influences, personal life, presidential advisor, and time during the Fed. Along with views on policies and economic ideas. Being challenged and learning how to improve an understanding of economics and of human beings. Greenspan was an analyst but tasked with policies which had political aspects. During the Fed, Greenspan was involved with trying to calm the markets after many crises occurs such as the Mexican peso crisis, Russian debt crisis, and the trouble with Long-Term Capital Management. While trying to prevent other crises such as inflationary pressures, U.S. debt size, the tech bubble, and the housing bubble. With Fed independence in question, Greenspan defended Fed independence from political maneuverings. To Greenspan, world affairs seem to have to have gotten much more turbulent.
General Life:
From trying to understand Greenspan’s father’s book, to working at Townsend-Greenspan, Greenspan was an analyst. Seeking how the abstract models were tied to the real world. Filtering through various observations and facts to understand what has happened. Seeking as much detail to facilitate an understanding of the behavior of a particular segment of the world. Focusing on how the data was produced to create forecasts.
Influenced by Ayn Rand who would consider any idea from anyone, and argue the idea on its merits. Rand is well known for going against Communism, which Rand considered would collapse under its own corruption. Championing capitalism as the ideal form of social organization. Within the group that Ayn Rand hosted, Greenspan’s views were challenged. Ayn Rand taught Greenspan to learn more about human values which broadened the way Greenspan thought about models thereafter. Ayn Rand objectivism philosophy was too strict for Greenspan and created may contradictions.
On The Federal Reserve:
Congress initiated protection of the Fed from political influence, but politics still tries to influence the Fed. While the presidency is subject to a variety of short-term demands, the Fed tries to maintain long-term economic viability. Economic policy from the Fed are very much subject to the political process.
Greenspan dealt with many U.S. presidents, and saw their terrible sides that the public did not normally get to see. The government would enact terrible policies, such as price controls, knowing full well that it would hurt the economy, but enact it anyway because businesses and consumers wanted.
The chair of the FOMC leads discussion about what policies in which everyone can participate and raise claims and concerns. At one point, the recordings of the meetings were asked to be disclosed but that would have changed the content of the meetings. They would become prepared speeches rather unfettered debate.
The Federal Reserve’s policies are made by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee.) Which directs the Fed to either buy or sell treasury securities, or alternative financial assets. Buying securities increased the money in the economy and reduces short-term interest rates. While selling securities does the reverse, reduces the money in the economy and increases short-term interest rates. With the FOMC operations, they can tailor how the economy performs, but the reaction of the market to the operations is often uncertain. With inflationary pressures, the Fed slows the economy by making money more expensive to borrow. The Fed tries not to abuse their power by not telling banks what to do, such as to or not to make loans. Such power would damage the functioning of the market.
Monetary policy has changed in response to pressure. From not indicating the direction of interest rates, to being transparent about operations. Not disclosing the targeted interest rate changed kept markets uncertain, which caused them to have a buffer to either direction.
Greenspan favors property rights because they protect against arbitrary seizure. As regulator, there are three rules of thumb that Greenspan has which are: 1) Regulations that comes from a crisis need to be modified afterwards, 2) having several regulators causes them to keep each other in check, 3) regulations need to be revised or removed based on usefulness.
Thoughts on Economics
Before well-developed markets, suppliers would not state the accuracy of their inventory as it would weaken bargaining power. As markets gradually became better, suppliers became very willing to state what they had in their inventory. Division of labor has become sophisticated as to make everyone dependent on interactions and exchange of goods and services. Referencing that the way to cripple an economy is to target its economic infrastructure of payment systems. Removing that would force business to rely on inefficient physical exchanges.
The way people thought of debt has changed over time. There was a time when the U.S. president felt ashamed for a deficit, and even apologized for having a deficit. An argument that Greenspan has made for a very long time was to reduce the debt. Debt limits the response any government can make. During a recession, it limits the ability of a government to address the economic problem. During 1999-2000, the government ran a surplus, as in spent less than it was taking in via taxes. There were questions about Feb operations if Treasury securities could not be used.
Keynesian policies became popular in response to the Great Depression, but declined during the 1970s with the inability to deal stagflation. In an economic contraction, Keynes argued that government could create demand which would enable increased economic activity.
Within a centrally planned economy, production and distribution are determined by instruction. What resources are to be given, what is to be produced, and to whom the product is for are all determined. Along with predetermined wages and employment. The consumer has no option to but to be a passive recipient of whatever is to be produced. There is no impetus to develop the economy.
The Cold War was a contest about different views of economic organization, not just ideologies. For many years the Soviet Union and the U.S. appeared evenly matched. The problem is that Soviet Union did not capture the dynamism of economies, that production shifts faster than could be anticipated.
A natural experiment was done using Germany after WWII. Starting with the same culture, history, and values but after the split between East and West Germany, the regions became vastly different.
Caveats?
The book does not provide much information about most opposing views other than that there were opposing views. Without the reasons for the opposing views, and with the reasons for the views held, the book creates a bias in which the author’s views appears more right than they might actually have been.
As this book follows many major events, the events are not always given a background other than that there was a crisis that needed to be managed. Some of these events had Fed intervention and have become precedents for future actions. There seems to be a lack of recognition that some actions of the past, created forthcoming problems. The Fed seems to be the victim within the crises, and the institution that continued to prevent further escalation.
There is a distinct lack of problems that the Fed has caused. This would have been important to note in the book, as it would have indicated areas of governance that need adjusting, and a guide on how to avoid doing the same mistakes.
Alan Greenspan served as the Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1987 to 2006. This book covers Greenspan’s early life, becoming an economist, intellectual influences, personal life, presidential advisor, and time during the Fed. Along with views on policies and economic ideas. Being challenged and learning how to improve an understanding of economics and of human beings. Greenspan was an analyst but tasked with policies which had political aspects. During the Fed, Greenspan was involved with trying to calm the markets after many crises occurs such as the Mexican peso crisis, Russian debt crisis, and the trouble with Long-Term Capital Management. While trying to prevent other crises such as inflationary pressures, U.S. debt size, the tech bubble, and the housing bubble. With Fed independence in question, Greenspan defended Fed independence from political maneuverings. To Greenspan, world affairs seem to have to have gotten much more turbulent.
General Life:
From trying to understand Greenspan’s father’s book, to working at Townsend-Greenspan, Greenspan was an analyst. Seeking how the abstract models were tied to the real world. Filtering through various observations and facts to understand what has happened. Seeking as much detail to facilitate an understanding of the behavior of a particular segment of the world. Focusing on how the data was produced to create forecasts.
Influenced by Ayn Rand who would consider any idea from anyone, and argue the idea on its merits. Rand is well known for going against Communism, which Rand considered would collapse under its own corruption. Championing capitalism as the ideal form of social organization. Within the group that Ayn Rand hosted, Greenspan’s views were challenged. Ayn Rand taught Greenspan to learn more about human values which broadened the way Greenspan thought about models thereafter. Ayn Rand objectivism philosophy was too strict for Greenspan and created may contradictions.
On The Federal Reserve:
Congress initiated protection of the Fed from political influence, but politics still tries to influence the Fed. While the presidency is subject to a variety of short-term demands, the Fed tries to maintain long-term economic viability. Economic policy from the Fed are very much subject to the political process.
Greenspan dealt with many U.S. presidents, and saw their terrible sides that the public did not normally get to see. The government would enact terrible policies, such as price controls, knowing full well that it would hurt the economy, but enact it anyway because businesses and consumers wanted.
The chair of the FOMC leads discussion about what policies in which everyone can participate and raise claims and concerns. At one point, the recordings of the meetings were asked to be disclosed but that would have changed the content of the meetings. They would become prepared speeches rather unfettered debate.
The Federal Reserve’s policies are made by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee.) Which directs the Fed to either buy or sell treasury securities, or alternative financial assets. Buying securities increased the money in the economy and reduces short-term interest rates. While selling securities does the reverse, reduces the money in the economy and increases short-term interest rates. With the FOMC operations, they can tailor how the economy performs, but the reaction of the market to the operations is often uncertain. With inflationary pressures, the Fed slows the economy by making money more expensive to borrow. The Fed tries not to abuse their power by not telling banks what to do, such as to or not to make loans. Such power would damage the functioning of the market.
Monetary policy has changed in response to pressure. From not indicating the direction of interest rates, to being transparent about operations. Not disclosing the targeted interest rate changed kept markets uncertain, which caused them to have a buffer to either direction.
Greenspan favors property rights because they protect against arbitrary seizure. As regulator, there are three rules of thumb that Greenspan has which are: 1) Regulations that comes from a crisis need to be modified afterwards, 2) having several regulators causes them to keep each other in check, 3) regulations need to be revised or removed based on usefulness.
Thoughts on Economics
Before well-developed markets, suppliers would not state the accuracy of their inventory as it would weaken bargaining power. As markets gradually became better, suppliers became very willing to state what they had in their inventory. Division of labor has become sophisticated as to make everyone dependent on interactions and exchange of goods and services. Referencing that the way to cripple an economy is to target its economic infrastructure of payment systems. Removing that would force business to rely on inefficient physical exchanges.
The way people thought of debt has changed over time. There was a time when the U.S. president felt ashamed for a deficit, and even apologized for having a deficit. An argument that Greenspan has made for a very long time was to reduce the debt. Debt limits the response any government can make. During a recession, it limits the ability of a government to address the economic problem. During 1999-2000, the government ran a surplus, as in spent less than it was taking in via taxes. There were questions about Feb operations if Treasury securities could not be used.
Keynesian policies became popular in response to the Great Depression, but declined during the 1970s with the inability to deal stagflation. In an economic contraction, Keynes argued that government could create demand which would enable increased economic activity.
Within a centrally planned economy, production and distribution are determined by instruction. What resources are to be given, what is to be produced, and to whom the product is for are all determined. Along with predetermined wages and employment. The consumer has no option to but to be a passive recipient of whatever is to be produced. There is no impetus to develop the economy.
The Cold War was a contest about different views of economic organization, not just ideologies. For many years the Soviet Union and the U.S. appeared evenly matched. The problem is that Soviet Union did not capture the dynamism of economies, that production shifts faster than could be anticipated.
A natural experiment was done using Germany after WWII. Starting with the same culture, history, and values but after the split between East and West Germany, the regions became vastly different.
Caveats?
The book does not provide much information about most opposing views other than that there were opposing views. Without the reasons for the opposing views, and with the reasons for the views held, the book creates a bias in which the author’s views appears more right than they might actually have been.
As this book follows many major events, the events are not always given a background other than that there was a crisis that needed to be managed. Some of these events had Fed intervention and have become precedents for future actions. There seems to be a lack of recognition that some actions of the past, created forthcoming problems. The Fed seems to be the victim within the crises, and the institution that continued to prevent further escalation.
There is a distinct lack of problems that the Fed has caused. This would have been important to note in the book, as it would have indicated areas of governance that need adjusting, and a guide on how to avoid doing the same mistakes.
June 4, 2008
The Age of Turbulence is half biography of Alan Greenspan, and half economic musings about the future. Greenspan is most well known as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board during the immensely prosperous years of 1987-2006. To most Americans Greenspan has always seemed to be a powerful and mysterious figure - a financial shaman or wizard, who emerged from the shadows periodically to make inexplicable pronouncements on the economy. Although few of us understood what he did, we knew he did it well, and were grateful that he was the principal guardian of our country’s financial health and prosperity. This book is a best seller largely because it draws back the wizard’s curtain and lets us see a bit of his life and machinations.
Greenspan begins his memoir telling of his beginnings, and background as an obsessive number cruncher, but he really gets interesting when he describes his Zelig-like life amidst the world’s power brokers. Except for Jimmy Carter, Greenspan worked with every US president since 1969, and the book offers a fairly blunt critique of each. Gerald Ford, who’s portrayed as an unusually decent politician, clearly ranks first. I was surprised that despite their ideological differences, Bill Clinton seems to place second, thanks to his “consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth.” Nixon, Reagan and George H. W. Bush each receives a mix of praise and criticism. Only the current President Bush goes without receiving credit for any economic accomplishment. As a libertarian economist, Greenspan’s insider’s view of economic history is definitely worth the book’s price.
The book’s second half is a discussion of economic challenges facing the US, and the world. It alternates from profound to arcane, and I enjoyed it at least as much as his biography. Here Greenspan discusses many economic hot topics such as income inequality and the rise of China, the long term energy squeeze, globalization and regulation. His chapter on Latin American Populism is superb, and dovetails nicely with his discussion of the several possible modes of capitalism, and what he perceives as the universal requirements for economic growth. Excellent!
It is impossible to read this book and not gain greater appreciation for the fundamental strength of free-market capitalism despite its constant “creative destruction.” I wish it were required reading for all students of US history, and I heartily recommend it to my friends and family.
.
.
Greenspan begins his memoir telling of his beginnings, and background as an obsessive number cruncher, but he really gets interesting when he describes his Zelig-like life amidst the world’s power brokers. Except for Jimmy Carter, Greenspan worked with every US president since 1969, and the book offers a fairly blunt critique of each. Gerald Ford, who’s portrayed as an unusually decent politician, clearly ranks first. I was surprised that despite their ideological differences, Bill Clinton seems to place second, thanks to his “consistent, disciplined focus on long-term economic growth.” Nixon, Reagan and George H. W. Bush each receives a mix of praise and criticism. Only the current President Bush goes without receiving credit for any economic accomplishment. As a libertarian economist, Greenspan’s insider’s view of economic history is definitely worth the book’s price.
The book’s second half is a discussion of economic challenges facing the US, and the world. It alternates from profound to arcane, and I enjoyed it at least as much as his biography. Here Greenspan discusses many economic hot topics such as income inequality and the rise of China, the long term energy squeeze, globalization and regulation. His chapter on Latin American Populism is superb, and dovetails nicely with his discussion of the several possible modes of capitalism, and what he perceives as the universal requirements for economic growth. Excellent!
It is impossible to read this book and not gain greater appreciation for the fundamental strength of free-market capitalism despite its constant “creative destruction.” I wish it were required reading for all students of US history, and I heartily recommend it to my friends and family.
.
.
October 25, 2008
I read the hard cover book and then downloaded the "epilogue" on my Kindle.
I was going to read it over last Xmas break, but my wife grabbed it and started reading it before I could. This sat on my nightstand for almost a year when my curiosity about the recent financial problems made me pick it up.
The first half of the book is a straight forward memoir/autobiography and is easy reading. There are lots of interesting anecdotes (AG was in a big band! And he did his bandmates taxes!) and name droppings (AG dated Barbara Walters!).
The main puzzle of this part of the book is why our staunch free market advocate AG needs to rush from crisis to crisis throughout the book. There is a certain irony in AG discussing how great the invisible hand is as he rushes around trying to bail it out of trouble.
The second part of the book is AG's take on different sections of the world and various topics related to economics. He ends with an interesting chapter where he lies out his thought process as he tries to predict the state of the economy in 2030, a topic of great interest to me because I hope to Christ that I am retired by then.
The Epilogue is a new chapter that was added to the paperback edition. Fortunately it is unbundled as an ebook. This is AG's attempt to bring his book up to date with the events of mid-2008, around the time that Bear Sterns failed.
Considering the stock drop, bailout, and credit problems since then, I'm eagerly anticipating the epilogue to the epilogue.
I was going to read it over last Xmas break, but my wife grabbed it and started reading it before I could. This sat on my nightstand for almost a year when my curiosity about the recent financial problems made me pick it up.
The first half of the book is a straight forward memoir/autobiography and is easy reading. There are lots of interesting anecdotes (AG was in a big band! And he did his bandmates taxes!) and name droppings (AG dated Barbara Walters!).
The main puzzle of this part of the book is why our staunch free market advocate AG needs to rush from crisis to crisis throughout the book. There is a certain irony in AG discussing how great the invisible hand is as he rushes around trying to bail it out of trouble.
The second part of the book is AG's take on different sections of the world and various topics related to economics. He ends with an interesting chapter where he lies out his thought process as he tries to predict the state of the economy in 2030, a topic of great interest to me because I hope to Christ that I am retired by then.
The Epilogue is a new chapter that was added to the paperback edition. Fortunately it is unbundled as an ebook. This is AG's attempt to bring his book up to date with the events of mid-2008, around the time that Bear Sterns failed.
Considering the stock drop, bailout, and credit problems since then, I'm eagerly anticipating the epilogue to the epilogue.
March 21, 2010
The good things about this book are that Greenspan is a free marketeer, and he has an immense store of economic knowledge to draw on. The bad things are that the book is too long, and tries to cover too much (maybe he was being paid by the page). One thing I hadn't known was that Greenspan was a disciple (and friend) of Ayn Rand (who knew?). It's not surprising that he provides no advice to investors; just hopes that we don't spend ourselves into oblivion. One surprise, given his political leanings, is how little concern he seems to have about the continuing shredding of human rights in some of the world's developing nations.
Honestly, I never would have read this if it hadn't been given to me, and I can't say I'm much the wiser for having done so.
Honestly, I never would have read this if it hadn't been given to me, and I can't say I'm much the wiser for having done so.
March 28, 2011
After reading this it is no wonder we got into such a mess.
If success in life is about luck, disposition and discipline, how come so many people forget about the first element.
I recognise the capacity of intellect and being in a social circle of similar people of influence can have it's benefits, and that hindsight makes all things easier to explain.
But greed & inequality do not seem to change over history, and mother nature is a dynamic system of which we still know very little.
Greenspan's element of luck is missing, but the legacy we have today of those unbalanced times will be the historical record.
If success in life is about luck, disposition and discipline, how come so many people forget about the first element.
I recognise the capacity of intellect and being in a social circle of similar people of influence can have it's benefits, and that hindsight makes all things easier to explain.
But greed & inequality do not seem to change over history, and mother nature is a dynamic system of which we still know very little.
Greenspan's element of luck is missing, but the legacy we have today of those unbalanced times will be the historical record.
August 31, 2008
This book actually made me want to meet the man. I thought that anyone who would pick a career like his had to have the personality of a water cracker, but he seems to have a sense of humor. Yes, he does name drop a lot, but who cares?
I think my favorite thing about this book is that he had to have written the stuff about what's wrong with our political system and his forcasts for our country and the world before he retired... he makes some pretty ballsy statements.
I think my favorite thing about this book is that he had to have written the stuff about what's wrong with our political system and his forcasts for our country and the world before he retired... he makes some pretty ballsy statements.
Read
January 4, 2010Awesome book. Highly recommend!
September 27, 2012
A lot of data. Greenspan trying to shift the blame of his 25 years as Fed chairman on to things "out of his control". Redundant, You really have to get into the mood for this one and again some.
March 9, 2019
Time to pay off our debt.
December 28, 2025
This is the autobiography of Alan Greenspan, of whom it was justly said that he would remain the most powerful man in the world irrespective of who won the US presidential election. I read the book shortly after it appeared and thought it was high time for a repeat.
The first half of this book, almost to the page, tells of a remarkable professional life that started with being a professional musician and ended as the longest serving Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is fascinating to read the description of the events of his time in office. The earth moved when he walked, everybody tried to parse his sentences, and presidents of both parties re-appointed him.
The second half of the book is arranged thematically. First, 5 or so chapters organised geographically. These have not aged particularly well, although they are interesting for the history and for reminding us of the expectations of 20 years ago.
Thereafter some chapters dealing with issues of economics and finance. On the whole these are good and relevant -- of course in economics the answers are always the same while the questions keep changing. He didn't expect the way the energy area has changed, and has his quota of incorrect predictions, but on the whole these chapters are very relevant. His views on retirement, and the causes and implications of fiscal incontinence, are excellent -- the writing has been on the wall for quite some time but politicians couldn't be swayed from their tactical pre-occupations.
Greenspan flags his following Ayn Rand so you can try to allow for it (I'm not one). The frequent references to US values and prowess are more significant -- initially funny but soon become sad reminders of the time when the US stood for something good.
One conclusion is that the book reminds us to be humble when making predictions. A well-informed man made some predictions based on a lifetime of experience and an excellent understanding of economics, and got quite a few wrong. How could he predict the GFC, Covid or the emergence of a new miilitaristic Russia? How could he think inflation was so simple to forecast 25 years into the future?
The first half of this book, almost to the page, tells of a remarkable professional life that started with being a professional musician and ended as the longest serving Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is fascinating to read the description of the events of his time in office. The earth moved when he walked, everybody tried to parse his sentences, and presidents of both parties re-appointed him.
The second half of the book is arranged thematically. First, 5 or so chapters organised geographically. These have not aged particularly well, although they are interesting for the history and for reminding us of the expectations of 20 years ago.
Thereafter some chapters dealing with issues of economics and finance. On the whole these are good and relevant -- of course in economics the answers are always the same while the questions keep changing. He didn't expect the way the energy area has changed, and has his quota of incorrect predictions, but on the whole these chapters are very relevant. His views on retirement, and the causes and implications of fiscal incontinence, are excellent -- the writing has been on the wall for quite some time but politicians couldn't be swayed from their tactical pre-occupations.
Greenspan flags his following Ayn Rand so you can try to allow for it (I'm not one). The frequent references to US values and prowess are more significant -- initially funny but soon become sad reminders of the time when the US stood for something good.
One conclusion is that the book reminds us to be humble when making predictions. A well-informed man made some predictions based on a lifetime of experience and an excellent understanding of economics, and got quite a few wrong. How could he predict the GFC, Covid or the emergence of a new miilitaristic Russia? How could he think inflation was so simple to forecast 25 years into the future?
June 8, 2017
Picked this up for $1 at the library book sale and read it on vacation because the cover screamed "beach read." But it was good. I liked his writing style. A little mathy (my word) and facty (also my word) but entertaining. He has been a part of so much of the last 70 years of this country's history so he's fascinating. Because it came out in 2007, I admit that I skimmed the second half where he talked about his predictions for the future.
April 2, 2019
"Ben her zaman Sovyetler Birliği'nin gerçek çöküş nedeninin Mihail Gorbaçov'un glasnst ve perestroika'sı olduğunu düşünmüşümdür. Zira, bunlar Sovyet halkına, Stalin ve takipçilerinin uzun süre yasakladığı 'liberal' değerleri tanıtmıştır. Pandora'nın kutusu açıldıktan sonra haberler her halükarda yayılacağı için, SSCB ve bağlı devletlerinde kolektivizmin çöküşü artık sadece an meselesiydi. İnternetten bilgi yayılmasını önlemek için Çinli Komünist Politburo'nun gösterdiği çabalar, onların da bunların farkında olduklarını ve tarihin tekerrür etmesini görmek istemediklerini ifade ediyordu."
Sadece eski Fed başkanının otobiyografisini okuma amacıyla başladığım kitap bana çok daha fazlasını sunduğu için çok mutluyum. Alan Greenspan'in sadece akademik ve profesyonel hayatını değil aynı zaman hayatı boyunca şahit olduğu ekonomik ve politik değişimleri nasıl yorumladığını -yukarıdaki gibi- bulabileceğiniz keyifli ve kolay bir okuma sunan güzel bir kitap. Ayrıca bu kitap sayesinde öğrendiğim Alan Greenspan ile Ayn Rand'ın tanışıklıkları sanki Alan Greenspan hakkında her şeyi daha da anlamlılaştırdı.
April 5, 2019
I listened to the audio book read by the amazingly talented Robertson Dean. Fascinating, enlighteninng and satisfying biography by someone I had always wondered about. From his early education and influences to his understanding of the global economy, this is so much more than the memoirs of an economist, it is a behind the scenes look at history. I get a lot of books free from the library but I bought this audio book to listen to several times, it's that good.
Read
April 18, 2021Despite being a bit dated, the book is still very relevant as it addresses how Greenspan dealt with the challenges of the time. A very good insight into central banking
October 7, 2009
This is a solid autobiography with some interesting twists. Thus far, many reviewers focus their attention on his assessment of presidents. While this is interesting, there is a lot more to this book than that. Indeed, a brief line on page 14 is a subtext throughout those portions of the book dealing with his public life (page 14): "If the story of the past quarter century has a one-line plot summary, it is the rediscovery of the power of market capitalism." He also notes, as another subtheme, that (page 18) "It is in our nature. . . to persevere and advance in the face of adversity."
The biography begins with a straightforward but not necessarily very insightful depiction of his younger years, from birth through college and into business. His association with Ayn Rand is an interesting "plot twist." Those not familiar with this part of Greenspan's like (myself included) will find it useful to place his career in context. It is interesting to learn of his interest as a youth in music and baseball.
In terms of his public life, this work well depicts the growing circle of heavy weights, and how this networking culminated in Greenspan's accession as head of the Federal Reserve Board. We get insights into a number of major economic figures--Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Herb Stein, Bob Rubin, and so on.
His work with presidents began with his role as an economic advisor to Richard Nixon. Because of some strange moments (when Nixon lost his cool and went berserk), Greenspan chose not to serve in his Administration, until the very end. He rated Nixon (with Bill Clinton) as the two smartest presidents that he ever worked for.
Next, he took on an expanded role with the Ford Administration. He notes that Ford was admirable in his simplicity and lack of airs. His economic values (federal spending restraint, a balanced budget, and stable long-term economic growth) were concepts that Greenspan was most comfortable with. His evaluation of Jimmy Carter is not so positive. When Reagan assumed office, Greenspan became more engaged. E.g., he served on a panel to "save" Social Security. In the end, he was named Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. There follows his many years in that role, working under very different presidents and economic perspectives--from Reagan to George H. W. Bush to Bill Clinton, to George W. Bush. His evaluations of Reagan and Clinton are far more positive than toward the two Bush's, one of whom he felt disengaged from the economy (the elder) and one of whom was irresponsible with the public treasure (the younger). Again, it is the analyses of presidents that many have fastened upon.
However, the later chapters are intriguing in their own right, when he judges major economic issues such as the nature of economic growth, the Chinese accession as a major player on the world scene, debts, globalization, his aversion to regulation as a policy tool, the challenges of an aging world, and energy. His last chapter, in a sense, is quite interesting, as he tries to project the state of the economy in the year 2030. Those who have read and appreciated the recent book "The Black Swan" will probably be amused by Greenspan's analysis, as he begins by saying that his analysis is based on certain assumptions, but if unexpected events occur, then everything is up for grabs.
The book is functionally but not compellingly written. I would have appreciated a bit more self-reflection on his earlier years. But this is a useful work to read because of the author's key role in the economic and financial world for so many years.
The biography begins with a straightforward but not necessarily very insightful depiction of his younger years, from birth through college and into business. His association with Ayn Rand is an interesting "plot twist." Those not familiar with this part of Greenspan's like (myself included) will find it useful to place his career in context. It is interesting to learn of his interest as a youth in music and baseball.
In terms of his public life, this work well depicts the growing circle of heavy weights, and how this networking culminated in Greenspan's accession as head of the Federal Reserve Board. We get insights into a number of major economic figures--Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Herb Stein, Bob Rubin, and so on.
His work with presidents began with his role as an economic advisor to Richard Nixon. Because of some strange moments (when Nixon lost his cool and went berserk), Greenspan chose not to serve in his Administration, until the very end. He rated Nixon (with Bill Clinton) as the two smartest presidents that he ever worked for.
Next, he took on an expanded role with the Ford Administration. He notes that Ford was admirable in his simplicity and lack of airs. His economic values (federal spending restraint, a balanced budget, and stable long-term economic growth) were concepts that Greenspan was most comfortable with. His evaluation of Jimmy Carter is not so positive. When Reagan assumed office, Greenspan became more engaged. E.g., he served on a panel to "save" Social Security. In the end, he was named Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. There follows his many years in that role, working under very different presidents and economic perspectives--from Reagan to George H. W. Bush to Bill Clinton, to George W. Bush. His evaluations of Reagan and Clinton are far more positive than toward the two Bush's, one of whom he felt disengaged from the economy (the elder) and one of whom was irresponsible with the public treasure (the younger). Again, it is the analyses of presidents that many have fastened upon.
However, the later chapters are intriguing in their own right, when he judges major economic issues such as the nature of economic growth, the Chinese accession as a major player on the world scene, debts, globalization, his aversion to regulation as a policy tool, the challenges of an aging world, and energy. His last chapter, in a sense, is quite interesting, as he tries to project the state of the economy in the year 2030. Those who have read and appreciated the recent book "The Black Swan" will probably be amused by Greenspan's analysis, as he begins by saying that his analysis is based on certain assumptions, but if unexpected events occur, then everything is up for grabs.
The book is functionally but not compellingly written. I would have appreciated a bit more self-reflection on his earlier years. But this is a useful work to read because of the author's key role in the economic and financial world for so many years.
September 15, 2015
tl;dr: If you like (monetary) policy, high-profile anecdotes and other people's interpretations of unresolved/controversial topics, read this book. It's a very enjoyable read on all these accounts.
It must be quite difficult to contain one's life, not just this long (Greenspan is 89 now), but this eventful. The book starts around the second World War, guides you through the aftermath, private life and private work, the resurrection of growth and the eventual lift off of Greenspan unmatchable policy career. It's quite funny that a figure like Greenspan lives and works through WW2, the Cold War, multitude of presidents (with him being in and out of the White House), Black Monday, the .com bubble, housing booms, ... and retires mere a single year before the greatest crisis of his lifetime (not counting the Great Depression that he only saw as a small child).
The book itself is split into two major parts. The first half is a chronological account of Greenspan's long life and career. It's filled to the brim with anecdotes spanning from childhood musical whims to casual chats with Ronald Reagan. Even though Greenspan was one of the most influential people at the time, he downplays this fact and that makes the stories a lot more readable than the usual namedropping/boasting accounts of high profile interactions. Another alluring fact is that Greenspan has worked with people on both sides of the ideological divide with seemingly no issues. He's a self proclaimed libertarian Republican, yet he praises Bill Clinton or Gordon Brown, isn't against energy taxes and is overall open to ideas from all over.
The second half is Greenspan's explanation of how he sees the world. How he has come to understand corporate governance, monetary and fiscal policy, energy markets, ... Given Greenspan's immensely long professional career, this account, this interpretation is an embodiment of Churchill's "The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” (which he cites himself) as only a masterful grasp of past events allows us to fully grasp of what's currently happening and what can feasibly be expected ahead. The book closes with a tentative forecast of the world in 2030.
(Too bad the book was published just as the Great Recession was starting and even the second printing with an added epilogue a year later (still three months before the fall of Lehman Brothers) offers little discussion on the eventual downfall. This reminds me of Niall Ferguson's Ascent of Money or the second edition of Robert Shiller's second edition of Irrational Exhuberance, both coming out shortly before the crisis yet both very relevant to it. Greenspan is a nice addition to this set. The corresponding lack of hindsight bias in their analysis is welcome though.)
It's a long book but very rewarding as Greenspan's account will surely entertain and enrich you.
It must be quite difficult to contain one's life, not just this long (Greenspan is 89 now), but this eventful. The book starts around the second World War, guides you through the aftermath, private life and private work, the resurrection of growth and the eventual lift off of Greenspan unmatchable policy career. It's quite funny that a figure like Greenspan lives and works through WW2, the Cold War, multitude of presidents (with him being in and out of the White House), Black Monday, the .com bubble, housing booms, ... and retires mere a single year before the greatest crisis of his lifetime (not counting the Great Depression that he only saw as a small child).
The book itself is split into two major parts. The first half is a chronological account of Greenspan's long life and career. It's filled to the brim with anecdotes spanning from childhood musical whims to casual chats with Ronald Reagan. Even though Greenspan was one of the most influential people at the time, he downplays this fact and that makes the stories a lot more readable than the usual namedropping/boasting accounts of high profile interactions. Another alluring fact is that Greenspan has worked with people on both sides of the ideological divide with seemingly no issues. He's a self proclaimed libertarian Republican, yet he praises Bill Clinton or Gordon Brown, isn't against energy taxes and is overall open to ideas from all over.
The second half is Greenspan's explanation of how he sees the world. How he has come to understand corporate governance, monetary and fiscal policy, energy markets, ... Given Greenspan's immensely long professional career, this account, this interpretation is an embodiment of Churchill's "The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” (which he cites himself) as only a masterful grasp of past events allows us to fully grasp of what's currently happening and what can feasibly be expected ahead. The book closes with a tentative forecast of the world in 2030.
(Too bad the book was published just as the Great Recession was starting and even the second printing with an added epilogue a year later (still three months before the fall of Lehman Brothers) offers little discussion on the eventual downfall. This reminds me of Niall Ferguson's Ascent of Money or the second edition of Robert Shiller's second edition of Irrational Exhuberance, both coming out shortly before the crisis yet both very relevant to it. Greenspan is a nice addition to this set. The corresponding lack of hindsight bias in their analysis is welcome though.)
It's a long book but very rewarding as Greenspan's account will surely entertain and enrich you.
May 28, 2009
I actually thought this book was quite good. Greenspan, according to popular perception, has been proved wrong by events of the past couple of years. I still don't feel that I understand this whole financial crisis (nor economics in general) well enough to have a strong opinion on that, but I did find much of Greenspan's logic to be compelling.
Most compelling was the foundation that he seemed to be working from, which is that there are basically standard economic principles (which seem to be more or less non-partisan) and conversely, there is economic populism. I have always been under the impression that there were basically two different ideologies for how to create economic growth and that Democrats wish to apply the one theory, while Republicans wish to apply the other. Greenspan's book seems to imply that there is not so much difference between the fiscal policies that an economist for either party would wish to apply, but rather that there are populist pressures that often serve to distort sound economic theory.
Building from such a foundation, I see the logic of Econ Conservatives more clearly than ever before since their stated ideology is probably closer to sound economic theory. Or, as I think Pres Obama put it, Dems have seemed too worried about slicing up the economic pie rather than expanding that pie. In practice, it doesn't always work out that way, it seems (Greenspan approved of Clinton's policies much more than W's). But I must say that if given a choice, I would probably choose growth over perfect equity, since I do believe that a rising tide does eventually lift all boats.
Of course, this all warrants much further investigation. I am suspicious of the simplicity of the account I just related. There are economists who seem to have vastly differing policy views. Is this a matter of conflicting values or conflicting economic theories? I will spend the summer exploring.
Most compelling was the foundation that he seemed to be working from, which is that there are basically standard economic principles (which seem to be more or less non-partisan) and conversely, there is economic populism. I have always been under the impression that there were basically two different ideologies for how to create economic growth and that Democrats wish to apply the one theory, while Republicans wish to apply the other. Greenspan's book seems to imply that there is not so much difference between the fiscal policies that an economist for either party would wish to apply, but rather that there are populist pressures that often serve to distort sound economic theory.
Building from such a foundation, I see the logic of Econ Conservatives more clearly than ever before since their stated ideology is probably closer to sound economic theory. Or, as I think Pres Obama put it, Dems have seemed too worried about slicing up the economic pie rather than expanding that pie. In practice, it doesn't always work out that way, it seems (Greenspan approved of Clinton's policies much more than W's). But I must say that if given a choice, I would probably choose growth over perfect equity, since I do believe that a rising tide does eventually lift all boats.
Of course, this all warrants much further investigation. I am suspicious of the simplicity of the account I just related. There are economists who seem to have vastly differing policy views. Is this a matter of conflicting values or conflicting economic theories? I will spend the summer exploring.
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