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Audiobook
First published October 13, 2020

"... one key to understanding their [Progressive Era] legacy is recognizing that national political leadership came after sustained, widespread citizen engagement, not before."
To a remarkable degree, domestic, institutional, and social reforms that had their origins in the first decade of the 20th century turn out to explain both the rise and then the fall of economic equality, because those reforms themselves waxed and waned in precisely the same century long rhythm as equality and inequality. The U-curve that describes the ups and downs of economic equality is paralleled by, and very caused at least in part by, the ups and downs of a set of institutional changes that were first sketched and implemented during the progressive era.
These bits of evidence are tantalizing, but this evidence is too weak to support any definitive claim. In short, at this stage, the available evidence offers virtually no indication of an uncaused first cause of the “I – We – I” syndrome. All the birds in this flock wheeled around at almost precisely the same time, seemingly leaderless. That fact seriously complicates any effort at causal analysis.
Since one popular interpretation of these shifts in policy, and of the consequent shifts in income and wealth distribution, fingers the Reagan revolution after 1981 as the chief culprit. It is significant in virtually every case the key turning points occurred a decade or more before the presidency of Ronald Reagan. In short, the presidential election of 1980, and the subsequent unfolding of Reaganism was a lagging indicator of this sea-change in the American political economy. The reversal of the social and policy innovations from the first decades of the 20th century was probably the proximate cause of the great divergence in the 21st century.
[The trajectory of divorce rates] has been so persistent that demographers in the 1890’s accurately predicted the divorce rate nearly 100 years later in the 1980’s... During the 1950’s and 1960’s, the hey-day of the companionate marriage, the divorce rate dipped below the long-term trend, and then rose sharply above the long-term trend in the 1970’s and 1980’s. The Boomers’ parents shunned divorce, but among the Boomers and their children, divorce was unusually common.
The fundamental problem of the “Big Government” explanation is that by most measures (all spending, or spending on the welfare state in real or per-capita terms, or spending as a fraction of GDP, number of government employees) the size of government lagged behind the “I – We – I” curve by several decades… In fact, the empirical evidence strongly suggests that government size is a consequence of the “I – We – I” curve, not a cause.
when pundits ponder nowadays why our politics are so polarized, or our economy so biased, or our families so weakened, or our churches so empty, or our culture so self-centered, two of the most commonly cited cultures are “young people these days” and “the internet”. However, amidst the tangle of possible causes that we review in this chapter, one thing is perfectly clear: neither millennials nor twitter and facebook can possibly be blamed for the “I – We – I” curve. The longer timeframe of our study gives those alleged culprits an ironclad alibi. The declines of the past half-century pre-date the millennial generation and the internet by decades.
In contemporary America, cohabitation is not marriage without a license, but typically a short-term relationship. More than half of all cohabitations end within two years. For college graduates, cohabitation nowadays frequently ends in ordinary marriage. But for the bottom 2/3 of the American class hierarchy, where cohabitation is more common, it typically ends with both partners moving on to new partners, often with children in tow, thus producing complex, fragile families.
If the communitarian “we” is defined too narrowly, however, then conformity to social norms punishes dissidents and deviants, whether political or sexual or racial. That was no less true in mid-20th century America than it had been in 17th century Salem, and it was no accident that Arthur Miller underscored that parallel in his 1953 play, The Crucible. During the first half of the 20th century, this potential disadvantage of community had been virtually undiscussed. As the “I – We – I” pendulum swung ever upward in the 1950’s, however, Americans suddenly became more aware of this dark side of community. That awakening to the fact that we might have too much of a good thing was reflected in a sudden increase in the number of books dealing with conformity.
What seems normal to any of us depends on when we personally entered the story. To many older Americans today who lived through at least part of America’s upswing, and then witnessed the extraordinary reversals outlined above, the extreme inequality, polarization, social fragmentation, and narcissism of today represented even in the highest offices of the land, are anything but normal. And thus they are understandably eager not to normalize it. Meanwhile, to Gen X’ers, Millenials, and younger Americans, deepening inequality, polarization, isolation, and narcissism may seem normal, because this is the America into which they were born… One contribution of this book, we hope, is to help narrow the “OK, Boomer” generational divide by introducing a new, evidence-based narrative that encompasses the ups and downs of an entire century, thereby setting a clearer agenda for choice going forward.
Progressive Era social innovations and institutional reforms put the US on a new path toward greater economic equality, laying the foundations for the Great Convergence that lasted until the 1970s. Progressive Era reformers, both dreamers and doers, created innovations such as the public high school, labor unions, the federal tax structure, antitrust legislation, financial regulation, and more.66 Those creations did not immediately close the income gap, given the turbulence of the Twenties, but they were the necessary foundations for further developments (especially during the New Deal, but not only then) that underpinned the Great Convergence.
In sum, during the Great Convergence, both taxation and spending moved in a progressive direction, so government redistribution was a major contributor to growing equality. With the advent of the Great Divergence, by contrast, taxes became more regressive, though spending continued to be more progressive, softening the post-1980 trend toward inequality, at least for the aging middle class.