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Perfectly Confident: How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely
An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business considers how to calibrate examines the importance of being confident, arguing that confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth.
A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble.
Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives.
Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor?
Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.
A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble.
Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives.
Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor?
Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.
272 pages, Hardcover
First published May 5, 2020
121 people are currently reading
1609 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 44 reviews
August 13, 2020
I enjoyed this useful book from Don A. Moore, which has improved my way of thinking about problems and decisions. Moore looks at the evidence around underconfidence and overconfidence both in terms of accuracy and certainty and offers a few practical strategies for making your assessment of your own confidence more accurate. Moore's ideas may also help you to better understand how others around you are making decisions and perhaps assist you in guiding people and organizations to better outcomes. This book helped me challenge myself to understand where I might tend to feel overconfident, which has since improved my performance in several academic and work-related situations. It has given me practical tools to take a second look at my decisions in situations where I know my confidence might be miscalibrated.
August 12, 2020
Solid review of the dangers of overconfidence and of under-confidence. Being confident doesn't make your outcomes better (turns out that the reason there's a correlation is that when you have higher skill you will feel confident). But always doubting yourself doesn't make you perform better either.
So the first key is to get good at judging your own skill level (we're not automatically good at that). And the second it to recognize when the situation is better served by erring on the side of confidence or caution. When the consequences of a bad choice are high (e.g. flying an airplane) then be more cautious when you're unsure. But when the consequences of failure are low (e.g. trying to make a new friend) then be more confident and go for it.
So the first key is to get good at judging your own skill level (we're not automatically good at that). And the second it to recognize when the situation is better served by erring on the side of confidence or caution. When the consequences of a bad choice are high (e.g. flying an airplane) then be more cautious when you're unsure. But when the consequences of failure are low (e.g. trying to make a new friend) then be more confident and go for it.
August 12, 2020
Some excellent tools are presented to help make sure you're at least 90% confident about any decision you make. It expresses the perils of both overconfidence and underconfidence effectively. I became a little tired anecdotes and personal stories, and found myself thumbing through the second half. But the concepts were very sound, and some good takeaways.
November 13, 2020
Confidence is a powerful tool - but it has to be earned. When making decisions, do not block out a wide range of possibilities so you are better informed and calibrate your confidence more accurately. If not, false bravado would be exposed moving forward. The author believes that true self-confidence comes from knowing what you don’t know.
June 18, 2025
Moore explores what you need to be REASONABLY confident.
I think the title is relatively inaccurate, and he described behaviours of over- and under-confidence in various situations and contexts, and potential consequences. Then he goes on to talk about what underpins or should underpin confidence in those situations or decisions.
A probabilistic model appears to be most appropriate in most circumstances, backed by facts and expert understanding or experience in the area of confidence. This goes on to be repeated throughout the second half of the book, which made it feel like it lacked the richness of the first half.
In light of the above, I think the author helps to illuminate ways we can demonstrate over- and under-confidence, become aware of our thoughts, speech and behaviour, and reconsider how we can increase our confidence in them to become reasonably confident.
I think the title is relatively inaccurate, and he described behaviours of over- and under-confidence in various situations and contexts, and potential consequences. Then he goes on to talk about what underpins or should underpin confidence in those situations or decisions.
A probabilistic model appears to be most appropriate in most circumstances, backed by facts and expert understanding or experience in the area of confidence. This goes on to be repeated throughout the second half of the book, which made it feel like it lacked the richness of the first half.
In light of the above, I think the author helps to illuminate ways we can demonstrate over- and under-confidence, become aware of our thoughts, speech and behaviour, and reconsider how we can increase our confidence in them to become reasonably confident.
September 1, 2020
A surprisingly sweeping book. It could have been one of those books whose entire point was complete in the first chapter. It isn’t. It touches on probability, game theory, psychology, evolutionary biology and more. Well-referenced and fast-paced. I highly recommend it if you are interested in better thinking, more successful planning and good execution of your life or work.
May 27, 2020
Fabulous book from the world's expert on over- and under-confidence. Professor Don Moore delivers a nuanced and actionable guide. I particularly like the material on the imposter syndrome. Highly recommend!
June 25, 2020
more of a why to than a how to in my opinion.
November 29, 2020
Good information. Poor writing. Could have been very good if half the current length.
August 22, 2024
Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore explores the concept of confidence, specifically how it impacts decision-making. Moore, an expert in management and decision sciences, argues that while confidence is crucial, it’s often misunderstood or miscalibrated. The book offers strategies for achieving the right balance of confidence—neither too little nor too much—so that you can make better decisions and achieve your goals effectively.
Central Argument:
Moore’s central argument is that both under-confidence and overconfidence can lead to poor decision-making and missed opportunities. He emphasizes the importance of calibrating your confidence accurately to match your actual abilities and the situation at hand. By doing so, you can avoid the pitfalls of being overly cautious or overly ambitious, leading to more successful outcomes in both personal and professional life.
Key Ideas:
• The Confidence Calibration: Moore introduces the concept of confidence calibration, which involves aligning your confidence level with reality. He argues that this balance is essential for making sound decisions, whether in business, relationships, or personal growth.
• The Dangers of Overconfidence: The book delves into the risks associated with overconfidence, such as taking on challenges beyond one’s capabilities or making decisions without sufficient information. Moore provides examples of how overconfidence can lead to significant setbacks.
• The Risks of Underconfidence: Conversely, underconfidence can result in missed opportunities and a failure to capitalize on one’s abilities. Moore explains how self-doubt can hinder progress and offers strategies to overcome it.
• Practical Tools for Calibration: Moore provides practical tools and techniques for assessing and adjusting your confidence level. These include self-reflection exercises, feedback loops, and statistical reasoning, all aimed at helping you make more informed and balanced decisions.
• The Role of Feedback: The book emphasizes the importance of seeking and using feedback to adjust your confidence. Moore argues that regular, honest feedback is essential for maintaining an accurate sense of your capabilities and improving decision-making over time.
Writing Style and Approach:
Moore’s writing is clear, engaging, and grounded in research. He blends academic insights with practical advice, making complex concepts accessible to a broad audience. The book is structured logically, with each chapter building on the previous one, guiding readers through the process of understanding and calibrating their confidence.
Strengths and Potential Weaknesses:
The strength of Perfectly Confident lies in its balanced approach to confidence, offering a nuanced perspective that recognizes the importance of both self-assurance and humility. Moore’s practical tools are actionable and applicable to a wide range of situations, making the book valuable for readers in various fields. However, some readers might find the concepts too theoretical if they are looking for more direct or simplified advice.
Target Audience:
Perfectly Confident is ideal for professionals, leaders, and anyone interested in personal development who wants to improve their decision-making skills. It is particularly useful for those who struggle with confidence issues, whether they tend to be overconfident or underconfident. The book will also appeal to readers interested in psychology, behavioral economics, and self-improvement.
Conclusion:
Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore provides a comprehensive guide to understanding and calibrating confidence in decision-making. By striking the right balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, readers can enhance their ability to make informed, effective decisions. Moore’s blend of research-based insights and practical advice makes this book a valuable resource for anyone looking to refine their approach to confidence and achieve better outcomes in life and work.
Central Argument:
Moore’s central argument is that both under-confidence and overconfidence can lead to poor decision-making and missed opportunities. He emphasizes the importance of calibrating your confidence accurately to match your actual abilities and the situation at hand. By doing so, you can avoid the pitfalls of being overly cautious or overly ambitious, leading to more successful outcomes in both personal and professional life.
Key Ideas:
• The Confidence Calibration: Moore introduces the concept of confidence calibration, which involves aligning your confidence level with reality. He argues that this balance is essential for making sound decisions, whether in business, relationships, or personal growth.
• The Dangers of Overconfidence: The book delves into the risks associated with overconfidence, such as taking on challenges beyond one’s capabilities or making decisions without sufficient information. Moore provides examples of how overconfidence can lead to significant setbacks.
• The Risks of Underconfidence: Conversely, underconfidence can result in missed opportunities and a failure to capitalize on one’s abilities. Moore explains how self-doubt can hinder progress and offers strategies to overcome it.
• Practical Tools for Calibration: Moore provides practical tools and techniques for assessing and adjusting your confidence level. These include self-reflection exercises, feedback loops, and statistical reasoning, all aimed at helping you make more informed and balanced decisions.
• The Role of Feedback: The book emphasizes the importance of seeking and using feedback to adjust your confidence. Moore argues that regular, honest feedback is essential for maintaining an accurate sense of your capabilities and improving decision-making over time.
Writing Style and Approach:
Moore’s writing is clear, engaging, and grounded in research. He blends academic insights with practical advice, making complex concepts accessible to a broad audience. The book is structured logically, with each chapter building on the previous one, guiding readers through the process of understanding and calibrating their confidence.
Strengths and Potential Weaknesses:
The strength of Perfectly Confident lies in its balanced approach to confidence, offering a nuanced perspective that recognizes the importance of both self-assurance and humility. Moore’s practical tools are actionable and applicable to a wide range of situations, making the book valuable for readers in various fields. However, some readers might find the concepts too theoretical if they are looking for more direct or simplified advice.
Target Audience:
Perfectly Confident is ideal for professionals, leaders, and anyone interested in personal development who wants to improve their decision-making skills. It is particularly useful for those who struggle with confidence issues, whether they tend to be overconfident or underconfident. The book will also appeal to readers interested in psychology, behavioral economics, and self-improvement.
Conclusion:
Perfectly Confident by Don A. Moore provides a comprehensive guide to understanding and calibrating confidence in decision-making. By striking the right balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, readers can enhance their ability to make informed, effective decisions. Moore’s blend of research-based insights and practical advice makes this book a valuable resource for anyone looking to refine their approach to confidence and achieve better outcomes in life and work.
September 17, 2021
He makes good points, but mho, he sometimes goes off the rails.
Examples:
He asks if being optimistic improves performance. The initial question was, is it better to be accurate or optimistic, thus implying that these are points on a continuum. In the discussion, he more or less explicitly equates pessissim & accuracy.
While the basic question is interesting & useful, I think these are two different scales. Optimism/pessimism (to me) relates to how much one thinks one will like the outcome. Accuracy relates to how likely the outcome is to happen.
He was literally burned on this question, so I can see why he would think as he does. FWIW, mho, accuracy is most useful because decisions based on it are most likely to happen.
Item 2: Expected value. He says that if an entire field of potential entrepreneurs rate their chances of success as too high, any given one of them should refrain from starting a business because the expected value for the group is negative.
This seems to me to conflate the expected value for the field with that for the individual. The choice for the individual should be based on their own expected value. They are not receiving the reward for the entire field, but for their own business. Of course, if their belief is too high, then they should stay out, but that is still an individual thing.
Speaking of startups, mho, there are 4 big factors that lead to success or the lack thereof:
- The skill of the people involved
- Luck
- Sufficient resources to stick with the effort until it pays off
- The initial idea
Of these, skill is critical. Someone who thinks they have a lot of skill but don't can make the effort fail no matter how much the other factors help. Conversely, people with skill can make the business succeed & won't try unless they can see that the other factors are likely to support the effort.
Luck is a wild card, of course. It's possible to make a guess at the resources or ability to organize them in advance. The initial idea is the least important. If it turns out not to work (& it is unlikely to work as first penciled out) a skillful team may be able to turn it into one that does.
Skill consists of a combination of accurate thinking & imagination. The imagination is to find ideas &/or to recognize them. The accurate thinking is to be able to make them work. It helps to have an almost delusional belief in your own abilities, to be able to sleep at night. :-), a "feet on the ground, head in the clouds" sort of situation.
He references the book Grit & remarks that while persistence is useful, sticking to a bad idea generally leads to wasted opportunity at best & disaster at worst. This understanding may have something to do with why I didn't bother persisting in reading Grit. :-)
He talks about people's ability to rate themselves vs others, with driving as an example. People, it seems, tend to think they drive better than others. The antidote to this (besides who really cares, as long as you get from here to there safely) is to establish criteria for evaluation.
This worked for him, he says, in his classes. His students, it appears, have high opinions of themselves & expect As.
However, he makes the point that being too rigid in the criteria is counterproductive, in that it would encourage too much caution. In software, people have figured out that like in war, you make plans that change in actual practice, so it isn't necessarily practical to be too detailed about what good is.
He talks about how being detailed in estimates can lead to more accuracy. The problem with this is that the further out you plan, the less you know about the real environment you will be working in & thus the less your plans will have any connection with the reality on the ground then. That is somewhat the concept (as I understand it) behind Agile. Plan in detail the things you will be working on soon, but don't bother planning too far out because the odds that you'll want to even build some feature, much less as you imagined, are fairly low.
On the whole, I'm getting good info, so I'm sticking with it. The expected value section has clarified my thinking on some things of importance to me & I hope there will be more good info before I'm done.
Examples:
He asks if being optimistic improves performance. The initial question was, is it better to be accurate or optimistic, thus implying that these are points on a continuum. In the discussion, he more or less explicitly equates pessissim & accuracy.
While the basic question is interesting & useful, I think these are two different scales. Optimism/pessimism (to me) relates to how much one thinks one will like the outcome. Accuracy relates to how likely the outcome is to happen.
He was literally burned on this question, so I can see why he would think as he does. FWIW, mho, accuracy is most useful because decisions based on it are most likely to happen.
Item 2: Expected value. He says that if an entire field of potential entrepreneurs rate their chances of success as too high, any given one of them should refrain from starting a business because the expected value for the group is negative.
This seems to me to conflate the expected value for the field with that for the individual. The choice for the individual should be based on their own expected value. They are not receiving the reward for the entire field, but for their own business. Of course, if their belief is too high, then they should stay out, but that is still an individual thing.
Speaking of startups, mho, there are 4 big factors that lead to success or the lack thereof:
- The skill of the people involved
- Luck
- Sufficient resources to stick with the effort until it pays off
- The initial idea
Of these, skill is critical. Someone who thinks they have a lot of skill but don't can make the effort fail no matter how much the other factors help. Conversely, people with skill can make the business succeed & won't try unless they can see that the other factors are likely to support the effort.
Luck is a wild card, of course. It's possible to make a guess at the resources or ability to organize them in advance. The initial idea is the least important. If it turns out not to work (& it is unlikely to work as first penciled out) a skillful team may be able to turn it into one that does.
Skill consists of a combination of accurate thinking & imagination. The imagination is to find ideas &/or to recognize them. The accurate thinking is to be able to make them work. It helps to have an almost delusional belief in your own abilities, to be able to sleep at night. :-), a "feet on the ground, head in the clouds" sort of situation.
He references the book Grit & remarks that while persistence is useful, sticking to a bad idea generally leads to wasted opportunity at best & disaster at worst. This understanding may have something to do with why I didn't bother persisting in reading Grit. :-)
He talks about people's ability to rate themselves vs others, with driving as an example. People, it seems, tend to think they drive better than others. The antidote to this (besides who really cares, as long as you get from here to there safely) is to establish criteria for evaluation.
This worked for him, he says, in his classes. His students, it appears, have high opinions of themselves & expect As.
However, he makes the point that being too rigid in the criteria is counterproductive, in that it would encourage too much caution. In software, people have figured out that like in war, you make plans that change in actual practice, so it isn't necessarily practical to be too detailed about what good is.
He talks about how being detailed in estimates can lead to more accuracy. The problem with this is that the further out you plan, the less you know about the real environment you will be working in & thus the less your plans will have any connection with the reality on the ground then. That is somewhat the concept (as I understand it) behind Agile. Plan in detail the things you will be working on soon, but don't bother planning too far out because the odds that you'll want to even build some feature, much less as you imagined, are fairly low.
On the whole, I'm getting good info, so I'm sticking with it. The expected value section has clarified my thinking on some things of importance to me & I hope there will be more good info before I'm done.
August 12, 2023
I find the idea and argumentation of this book to be alright. It provides some insight in how to avoid overconfidence and make better decisions. But it also repeats truisms and clichés such as "skills build confidence but not the other way around" or "too much confidence makes it harder to update your plan, but too little confidence results in the inability to act."
All in all, while I agree with the message, most of the insight can be found in a clearer format in books such as Thinking, Fast and Slow and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Finally, it is too long. This shouldn't be a book. It should be an essay.
I'll end with some valueable strategies to calibrate your decisions.
1. Test your rational thinking through pages like https://www.clearerthinking.org/ to draw attention to what you can improve
2. Apply pre-mortem reviews. That is, try to imagine yourself a some time from now, having implemented the decision, and it failed. Ask yourself why it failed. This makes it easier to overcome confirmation bias and see problems you otherwise oversaw.
3. Realise your overvaluing local information. Adapt an outside perspect by assuming that you are the average of the people that embark on similar missions.
4. If someone wants to bet with you, ask yourself what they might know that you don't.
5. Acknowledge the rarity of self-fulfilling prophecies - situations where the belief in something makes it come true.
All in all, while I agree with the message, most of the insight can be found in a clearer format in books such as Thinking, Fast and Slow and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.
Finally, it is too long. This shouldn't be a book. It should be an essay.
I'll end with some valueable strategies to calibrate your decisions.
1. Test your rational thinking through pages like https://www.clearerthinking.org/ to draw attention to what you can improve
2. Apply pre-mortem reviews. That is, try to imagine yourself a some time from now, having implemented the decision, and it failed. Ask yourself why it failed. This makes it easier to overcome confirmation bias and see problems you otherwise oversaw.
3. Realise your overvaluing local information. Adapt an outside perspect by assuming that you are the average of the people that embark on similar missions.
4. If someone wants to bet with you, ask yourself what they might know that you don't.
5. Acknowledge the rarity of self-fulfilling prophecies - situations where the belief in something makes it come true.
October 21, 2020
3.5/5
Overall theme of the book is that being overconfident can lead to errors in judgement and colossal mistakes and being under confident can create counterproductive risk aversion and create missed opportunities. The author promotes having well-calibrated confidence through considering the expected value of your decisions, thinking about what could go wrong or what might be a hurdle, and by considering outside perspectives.
Quotes: "Few people actually believe that they are inerrant, but we are nevertheless often so wedded to our own perspectives that we are reluctant to consider the possibility that we might be wrong. Psychologists call this tendency "naive realism." It leads us to assume that the way we see the world is the only sensible way to see it. Those who disagree with us must be either stupid or evil. Stupidity could account for their inability to recognize the facts right in front of them. But if they see the facts and deny them, diabolical motives seem more likely. In reality, however, perspectives different from our own are the opposite of evil. They can help us appreciate what we have missed, glimpse new opportunities, and understand our own propensity for error."
"If there is any one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person's point of view and see things from the person's angle as well as from your own." -Henry Ford
Overall theme of the book is that being overconfident can lead to errors in judgement and colossal mistakes and being under confident can create counterproductive risk aversion and create missed opportunities. The author promotes having well-calibrated confidence through considering the expected value of your decisions, thinking about what could go wrong or what might be a hurdle, and by considering outside perspectives.
Quotes: "Few people actually believe that they are inerrant, but we are nevertheless often so wedded to our own perspectives that we are reluctant to consider the possibility that we might be wrong. Psychologists call this tendency "naive realism." It leads us to assume that the way we see the world is the only sensible way to see it. Those who disagree with us must be either stupid or evil. Stupidity could account for their inability to recognize the facts right in front of them. But if they see the facts and deny them, diabolical motives seem more likely. In reality, however, perspectives different from our own are the opposite of evil. They can help us appreciate what we have missed, glimpse new opportunities, and understand our own propensity for error."
"If there is any one secret of success, it lies in the ability to get the other person's point of view and see things from the person's angle as well as from your own." -Henry Ford
June 14, 2020
This book draws on many ideas that I have come across in other books like Thinking, Fast and SlowThinking, Fast and Slow and Think Like a Rocket Scientist: Simple Strategies You Can Use to Make Giant Leaps in Work and Life.
However, it structures and explains the abstract concept and its many aspects very well and gave me a few new insights.
However, it structures and explains the abstract concept and its many aspects very well and gave me a few new insights.
July 19, 2021
An easy relatively quick read. I appreciated that it was written by a scientist, but honestly, it might as well have been written by a journalist or blogger curious about the field.
The insights were mostly not innovative (at least not for someone who has read multiple books like this, like me), and while it was an enjoyable read, I think other books explain many of the same things better (see: Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman).
The most unique thing about the book was the recommendation to actually make a probability distribution of the outcome, instead of making a binary probability estimate, as well as the focus on expected value as a foundation for your choice. However, that is no more than 10 pages of insight that you, honestly, might as well have read in a blog post.
The insights were mostly not innovative (at least not for someone who has read multiple books like this, like me), and while it was an enjoyable read, I think other books explain many of the same things better (see: Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman).
The most unique thing about the book was the recommendation to actually make a probability distribution of the outcome, instead of making a binary probability estimate, as well as the focus on expected value as a foundation for your choice. However, that is no more than 10 pages of insight that you, honestly, might as well have read in a blog post.
September 20, 2020
A new, currently under-read, book on calibrating your confidence that had me hooked.
Don Moore cuts through the nonsense and uses evidence, logic and reason to warn us about over-confidence and under-confidence. More importantly, he focuses on optimising decision-making while balancing the complex emotion of confidence.
Everything isn't new in this book, but there is a boldness about it that is refreshing. It's also short, and with a decent amount of anecdotes which makes for an engaging read.
If you're an entrepreneur, you have to read this.
Don Moore cuts through the nonsense and uses evidence, logic and reason to warn us about over-confidence and under-confidence. More importantly, he focuses on optimising decision-making while balancing the complex emotion of confidence.
Everything isn't new in this book, but there is a boldness about it that is refreshing. It's also short, and with a decent amount of anecdotes which makes for an engaging read.
If you're an entrepreneur, you have to read this.
June 21, 2021
That's what the book says
If you compare your hard work with other’s finished product, you just ignore the struggle of others and you may gain a false sense of your own incompetence. This becomes a major source of underconfidence and demotivation. To avoid overconfidence, think about alternative choices and outcomes and forecast their probabilities of occurring. After a definite time, review them.Consider other people (crowd)’s perspectives especially those that show disagreement with our biases to estimate the correct probabilities.
A good read!
If you compare your hard work with other’s finished product, you just ignore the struggle of others and you may gain a false sense of your own incompetence. This becomes a major source of underconfidence and demotivation. To avoid overconfidence, think about alternative choices and outcomes and forecast their probabilities of occurring. After a definite time, review them.Consider other people (crowd)’s perspectives especially those that show disagreement with our biases to estimate the correct probabilities.
A good read!
May 5, 2021
Tho book covers overconfidence in 8 chapters, the last one being kind of summary. The author gives research based examples and tools for calibrating self-confidence. Both overconfidence and under-confidence result in bad outcomes and we need to strive for just the correct level of confidence (the state of perfect confidence). In so doing we should embrace and welcome the life realities, be candid to ourselves and live with the truth.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
July 20, 2022
The book describes problems caused by both over and overconfidence on a quest for a perfect balance. It's a nice change compared to the widespread idea that confidence is always useful and can never hurt.
Being quite complicated at moments, it usually requires the full focus of the reader. The ideas about using a probabilistic distribution of the future forecasts instead of binary expectations were the single biggest benefit of the book for me.
Being quite complicated at moments, it usually requires the full focus of the reader. The ideas about using a probabilistic distribution of the future forecasts instead of binary expectations were the single biggest benefit of the book for me.
April 9, 2023
What is the basis for confidence? How does competence factor into one’s confidence? What assumptions do people use when making a bet air taking a position on something? How does bias play into our notions of confidence? These and other questions are tackled by the author. Probabilities also factor into the research and readers should take hope that despite persistent overconfidence, strategies exist for improving odds.
December 16, 2024
This book helped me a lot in college. It gave me a few mental models for making sharper predictions about upcoming assignments and events in my clubs. More than the models, it gave me the confidence that allowed me to BELIEVE that I could accurately predict the future (within reason). Being young, it's hard to tell what can reasonably be predicted without inspiration like a book like this. Great book!
November 13, 2020
Perfectly Confident (2020) is an in-depth exploration of what confidence is and how we can leverage it effectively. Having too much confidence can be just as bad as having too little. But how do you strike the right balance and become perfectly confident? Drawing on psychology, economics, and his own research into business leadership, author Don A. Moore offers some insightful answers.
November 14, 2021
The book offers some useful nuggets, i.e., use evidence, leverage opposing view points, alternatives in negotiation. However, some of these nuggets will seem old-and-known for folks who have read books like "Thing Again" or books by Nasim Taleb. Overall, a good book that could have been better if it were a bit more terse.
November 19, 2025
as with most self help books, few points are good, especially in the middle of the book. Otherwise it feels too soft sided and too conservative, but at the same time doesn't discourage innovation, but obviously discourages risk taking in favour of a stable constant. I personally don't agree with this line of thought, but this will be useful for many.
December 16, 2025
Most of the discussion of overconfidence/ underconfidence has been covered by others - especially the latter sections of this book.
The most valuable lessons learned/ food for thought were exercises early on where for a number of questions you get asked to put lower/ upper bounds with 90% certainty. Despite knowing this up front it is still very difficult to calibrate correctly.
The most valuable lessons learned/ food for thought were exercises early on where for a number of questions you get asked to put lower/ upper bounds with 90% certainty. Despite knowing this up front it is still very difficult to calibrate correctly.
May 20, 2022
This book illustrates the fine line of being confident and over confident. It lays out the consequences of being over or under confident and how one needs to be realistic in their expectations while being confident enough to not get discouraged and keep trying.
September 23, 2022
I chose this book by mistake, the title is kind of misleading. But instead I found a great guide to evaluate projects and prioritize them. Particularly valuable because of its twist on how emotions affect evaluations and results. Highly recommended.
February 7, 2023
Overall interesting read on how to better tune one's confidence and the importance of knowing correlation vs causation between confidence and results. Recommended as a good armchair psychology analysis book.
December 17, 2023
As someone who works a lot in organizational leadership, transformation and coaching - this felt like a greatest hits compilation of a lot of concepts helpful to understanding the context or decision making - good and bad.
February 20, 2024
Extremely relevant from the decision-making point of vie, with lots of examples, real life stories and business cases. Plus, it is research and evidence based, not the usual internet regurgitated bullshit.
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