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448 pages, Paperback
First published January 1, 1978
The case material reveals that perhaps the most important single precipitating factor in the outbreak of war is misperception. Such distortion may manifest itself in four different ways: in a leader's image of himself; a leader's view of his adversary's character; a leader's view of his adversary's intentions toward himself; and, finally, a leader's view of his adversary's capabilities and power.
There is a remarkable consistency in the self-images of most national leaders on the brink of war. Each confidently expects victory after a brief and triumphant campaign.
Distorted views of the adversary's character also help to precipitate a conflict. If a leader on the brink of war believes that his adversary will attack him, the chances of war are fairly high. If both leaders share this perception about each other's intent, war becomes a virtual certainty.
A leader's misperception of his adversary's power is perhaps the quintessential cause of war. It is vital to remember however, that it is not the actual distribution of power that precipitates a war, it is the way in which a leader thinks that power is distributed. The war itself then slowly, and in agony, teaches men about reality.