For some time now we have been hearing about the rush to secure resources of rare metals and this book lays out the main themes and describes what has been happening over the last 25 years or so. Guillaume Pitron is a lawyer turned writer so is not really a specialist in this area but has been doing his own personal research and spoken to a lot of people. He throws around an exhausting collection of statistics such as “purifying a single tonne of rare earths requires using over 30,000 cubic metres of water”. Which sounds pretty shocking but not so much when you realise how little of these rare earths are actually needed in alloys etc. Also there is a fair dose of repetition ...for example with rare earth magnets and China securing more or less a monopoly on these magnets. The techniques used by the Chinese ...such as demanding joint ventures and thereby gaining the technology is exactly the same as Americans have used for years...eg in securing access to the Australian developed spectrophotometer technology.....Just buy the company. Or better still buy a licence and then not pay ..and challenge the licensor to sue ...knowing that you have deeper pockets and the US legal system. Nevertheless it’s an interesting book. I think he raises all the right sort of questions. I don’t like his answers very much ...seems very weak to me. But there is nothing like a high price for a resource to drive innovation and the search for new resources.
I’ve extracted a few vignettes from the book, below. These resonated with me:
“Extracting and refining rare metals is highly polluting, and recycling them has proved a disappointment. Information and communication technologies actually produce 50 per cent more greenhouse gases than air transport! It’s an especially vicious circle. [Seems to ignore the fact that these technologies are an important part of air transport].
According to one study, meeting the demand for electric vehicle batteries alone by 2035 will require opening almost 400 new mines around the world (ninety-seven for natural graphite, seventy-four for lithium, and seventy-two for nickel).....I write and investigate not for the energy transition to be constrained, but rather for it to be accelerated,
It takes 20 tonnes of material extracted from the earth every year to satisfy the needs of just one European. This is incompatible with sustainable lifestyles.
One positive is the adoption in 2022 of the European Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive, to be phased in from 1 January 2024. Under the directive, certain companies are required to supplement their traditional accounting with an environmental and human-impact assessment of their corporate activities. The upsurge in interest [by students] in the geopolitics of lithium, nickel, and rare earths stands in stark opposition to the relative indifference shown by our political leaders on the subject.
.....From the 1970s, we turned our sights to the superb magnetic, catalytic, and optical properties of a cluster of lesser-known rare metals found in terrestrial rocks in infinitesimal amounts. Some of the members of this large family sport the most exotic names: rare earths, vanadium, germanium, platinoids, tungsten, antimony, beryllium, fluorine, rhenium, tantalum, niobium, to name but a few. Together, these rare metals form a coherent subset of some thirty raw materials with a shared characteristic:
Eight and a half tonnes of rock need to be purified to produce a kilogram of vanadium; sixteen tonnes for a kilogram of cerium;......(wind turbines, solar panels, and electric cars) are packed with rare metals to produce decarbonised energy......In the space of ten years, wind energy has increased seven-fold, and solar power by forty-four. In 2020, renewable energy already accounted for nearly 15 per cent of world final energy consumption. More modest energy consumption will naturally stave off global tensions around the ownership of fossil-fuel sources, create green jobs in leading industrial sectors, and make Western countries serious energy contenders once again.
Where and how are we going to procure the rare metals without which this treaty will fail?
Arguably, the Middle Kingdom holds a near monopoly over a profusion of rare metals without which low-carbon and digital energies cannot exist.
Changing our energy model already means doubling rare metal production approximately every fifteen years......At this rate, over the next thirty years we will need to mine more mineral ores than humans have extracted over the last 70,000 years.
Neodymium and gallium are, respectively, 1,400 and 3,000 times less abundant than iron.
This makes these rare metals expensive: in 2022, 1 kilogram of gallium was worth around US $ 350, or nearly 3,000 times more expensive than iron.....Magnets have made it possible to manufacture billions of engines, both big and small, capable of executing certain repetitive movements...It is estimated that the world will need ten to twelve times as many magnets by 2030 for electric vehicles alone.....It is not surprising that electric engines will soon replace conventional engines.
These metals have become indispensable to new information and communication technologies for their semiconducting properties that regulate the flow of electricity in digital devices....Between the ages of antiquity and the Renaissance, human beings consumed no more than seven metals; this increased to a dozen metals over the twentieth century; to twenty from the 1970s onwards; and then to almost all eighty-six metals on Mendeleev’s periodic table of elements......Forecasts by the International Energy Agency indicate that by 2040, demand for rare earths could be multiplied by seven, nickel by nineteen, cobalt by twenty-one, graphite by twenty-five, and lithium by forty-two, compared with 2020 needs.
The biggest quantity of rare earths is extracted from the bowels of Jiangxi.....Needy miners have entrenched themselves in the folds of the mountain’s most inhospitable terrains.
Their activities are feeding a colossal Chinese black market for minerals that, once processed, are exported worldwide.....Barely reported is the fact that mining rare metals also produces pollution, and to such an extent that China has stopped counting contamination events.
For a process known as ‘refining’, there is nothing refined about it. It involves crushing rock, and then using a concoction of chemical reagents such as sulphuric and nitric acid. ‘It’s a long and highly repetitive process,’ explains a French specialist. ‘It takes loads of different procedures to obtain a rare-earth concentrate close to 100 per cent purity.’ That’s not all: purifying a single tonne of rare earths requires using over 30,000 cubic metres of water.
The rare-earth companies ‘that have polluted our environment’. ...‘The Chinese people have sacrificed their environment to supply the entire planet with rare earths,’ Vivian Wu, a recognised Chinese expert in rare metals, tells us. ‘Ultimately, the price of developing our industry is just too high.’....Today, China is the leading producer of thirty-three of the fifty-one mineral resources that are vital to our economies,
The environmental cost is exorbitant, inhumane, and outrageous....Over 10 per cent of its arable land is contaminated by heavy metals, and 80 per cent of its groundwater is unfit for consumption.....The pollution caused by rare metals is not limited to China. It concerns all producing countries, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which in 2022 supplied nearly 70 per cent of the planet’s cobalt,
The message of this overview of the environmental impacts of extracting rare metals from the Earth is clear: we need to be far more sceptical about how green technologies are manufactured. Before they are even brought into service,
UCLA researchers reached the conclusion that the large-scale manufacture of electric vehicles is more energy-intensive than that of conventional cars....The cumulative [lifetime] emissions of an electric vehicle are around 13 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.....[less than half] that of [petrol] counterpart. ....A study from Uni of Florence looks at the impact of electric and combustion-powered cars based on more diverse ecological criteria such as the acidification of ecosystems, particle-emissions, human toxicity, and the depletion of resources. The electric car has a greater negative impact than its combustion-powered counterpart in all four
But digital technology requires vast quantities of metals. Every year, the electronics industry consumes 6 per cent of the global demand for gold (around 300 tonnes), and 20 per cent of the global demand for silver (around 7,000 tonnes).
One example says it all: ‘Manufacturing one 2-gram chip alone produces 32 kilograms of waste’—a 1: 16,000 ratio between the end-product and the resulting waste....And this is only the manufacture of digital devices. Operating electric grids will, of course, generate additional digital activity
The manufacturers in the energy and digital transition are increasingly partial to alloys......As the name suggests, alloys need to be ‘dealloyed’ to be recycled....Clearly, recycling an alloy is anything but straightforward.
Recycling rates are still very low for the vast majority of metals, such as lithium and rare earths (between 0 and 10 per cent), which are essential for electric transport.
The conclusion? The volumes of recycled metals will still fall structurally short of demand. There is no discussion by the author of the role of growth in populations driving consumption but it clearly is a major factor]. The overwhelming majority of recycling companies are obliged to process e-waste in the countries of its collection......To date, 186 countries and the European Union are parties to the convention, but a handful of countries—including the United States—have refused to ratify it.
A report by the World Bank states that ‘a green technology future is materially intensive and, if not properly managed, could bely the efforts … of meeting climate and related Sustainable Development Goals’
To accelerate the shift of mining production from West to East, China used—and continues to use—formidable cunning that is captured in just one word: dumping. It engaged in trade dumping by slashing production costs; [He clearly doesn’t understand the term “dumping” as used by the World Trade Organisation, which is: selling internationally at a lower price than domestically and causing harm to the importing country]..... and environmental dumping because, ‘production costs do not factor in the cost of repairing the environmental damage’.
Europe, which accounted for more than 60 per cent of global mining production in the mid-nineteenth century, now accounts for no more than 3 per cent
In short, the Western world honours the ‘cargo cult’ founded not too long ago in the Pacific Islands.
Above all, we need the capacity to separate, refine and recycle raw materials, which are also too often concentrated in China.’.....Myriad countries applying a specialist mining strategy have also acquired majority, if not monopolistic, positions...[So it’s not ALL China?] The Democratic Republic of the Congo produces 63 per cent of the world’s cobalt; South Africa supplies 71 per cent of the world’s platinum, 93 per cent of its iridium, 81 per cent of its rhodium, and 94 per cent of its ruthenium; and Brazil mines 92 per cent of the world’s niobium....Russia alone controls 40 per cent of the world’s palladium supply, and Turkey 48 per cent of the world’s borate supply.
After gas, oil and then grain were wielded as weapons, it was inevitable that China would weaponise its metals. And so, in September 2010, it launched an embargo on rare earths
A surge of nationalism over mining resources is sweeping across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and is increasingly weakening Western positions.
Rare earth magnets..... have become indispensable in all products equipped with electric motors, reputed to be pollution-free’ Our poor assessment of China’s competitive streak, without a doubt precipitated the transfer of labour, work units, and, most importantly, technologies to China.
Added to this is the pipedream of manufacturing fading into the background in favour of a service economy. The focus should be on knowledge and the immense added value it generates.....Grey matter was more valued and therefore given more support, to the
By orchestrating the transfer of magnet factories, the Chinese accelerated the migration of the entire downstream industry—the businesses that use magnets—to the Baotou free zone. ‘Now they’ve moved onto producing electric cars, phosphors, and wind turbine components.....China is erecting a completely independent and integrated industry, starting with the foul mines in which begrimed labourers toil, to state-of-the-art factories employing high-flying engineers. Our reliance on China—previously limited to raw materials—now includes the technologies of the energy and digital transition
From 2014, all of Indonesia’s mineral resources—from sand to nickel, and diamonds to gold—were no longer exported in raw form. As explained by Indonesian authorities, ‘The minerals we don’t sell now will be sold tomorrow as finished products.’
. A recent report by the Australian Institute for Strategic Policy, reports that China has taken the lead in thirty-seven of the forty-four cutting-edge technology sectors analysed, including fifth-and sixth-generation communication technologies (5G and 6G), electric batteries, and nuclear energy. Between 2018 and 2023, China will have manufactured an estimated 13 million electric vehicles, while Germany, the second-biggest EV manufacturer, will have manufactured 4.4 million, and the US 4.1 million.
Belligerents strike not only on land, but in the air, in space, in cyberspace, and through media channels by seeking to wipe out the enemy’s communication channels, control images, rewrite history, and manipulate opinions
The premise of the Sixteen-Character Policy [for China to acquire dual use technology] was pragmatic: given the difficulty in procuring war technologies due to the US arms embargo, China would buy foreign companies whose know-how in civil applications could be repurposed for more hostile ends.
Given their lack of interest in rare earths—and critical metals overall—over the last few decades, the US intelligence services, which are responsible for overseeing these issues, have a lot of ground to make
At a symposium held at Le Bourget in 2015, a handful of experts predicted that by 2040 we will need to mine three times more rare earths, five times more tellurium, 12 times more cobalt, and 16 times more lithium than today.......‘For an equivalent installed capacity, solar and wind facilities require up to 15 times more concrete, 90 times more aluminium, and 50 times more iron, copper, and glass than fossil fuels or nuclear energy.....[But no fuel over the working lifetime]. Over the next generation, we will consume more metals and minerals than in the last 70,000 years, or the 500 generations before us. Our eight billion contemporaries will absorb more mineral resources than the 117 billion humans who have walked the Earth to date.
‘Cobalt will be the next metal shortage,’ predicted one electric battery-cell expert. ‘No one saw this coming, and time is running out.’ (China alone consumes nearly 80 per cent of rare-earth oxides produced globally.)....It also imports metals produced elsewhere: cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 80 per cent of which is exported unprocessed to be refined in China; nickel, 35 per cent of which is refined by China;......‘3.3 trillion US dollars will need to be invested in extraction and refining projects by 2030, but today just half of that amount has been invested’.
The most prized location of all is Africa—home to 30 per cent of the world’s mineral reserves. From its bauxite mining projects in Guinea and Ghana, lithium projects in Zimbabwe and Namibia, and buying up future graphite production in Mozambican and Tanzanian mines, at last count, Chinese-backed or-owned companies hold stakes in 15 of the 19 cobalt mines in the country, the world’s leading producer of the resource.
The circularity of the global economy dropped to 8.6 per cent in 2020, and stood at 7.2 per cent in 2023........On 3 July 2023: after several Western countries imposed restrictions on the export of electronic-chip technology to China, China announced that from the following month, the export of gallium and germanium—two critical metals for the manufacture of microprocessors and fibre-optic technologies, and of which it is the world’s leading producer—would be subject to government approval.
Presented in 2023, the European Union’s Critical Minerals Act states that by 2030, 10 per cent of Europe’s critical resource needs must be met by mines operating in the continent’s own subsoil.
The head of The Metals Company (Canada), Gerard Barron, has very openly stated that there is enough cobalt and nickel in seafloor polymetallic nodules to power the batteries of around 4.8 billion electric cars. .......But the ecological challenges are as unprecedented as they are poorly understood. Outer space isn’t out of bounds either. This is despite the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, which clearly states that the space beyond the ozone layer is the common property of humanity.
In 2021, the media picked up on a potato-shaped asteroid, dubbed ‘16 Psyche’, containing iron, nickel, and gold with a total estimated value of $ 10,000 million trillion—more than the global economy.
So what’s my overall take on the book. I think it’s important. Thorough. Reasonably balanced ...though a bit “shock-horror” kind of reporting and anti-China. Draws attention to an important issue....4.5 stars from me.