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Odds & Ends: Introducing Probability & Decision with a Visual Emphasis
This textbook is for introductory philosophy courses on probability and inductive logic. It is based on a typical such course I teach at the University of Toronto, where we offer “Probability & Inductive Logic” in the second year, alongside the usual deductive logic intro.
The book assumes no deductive logic. The early chapters introduce the little that’s used. In fact almost no formal background is presumed, only very simple high school algebra.
I hope this book also offers more universal benefits.
* It is open access, hence free.
* It’s also open source, so other instructors can modify it to their liking.
* If you teach from this book I’d love to know: email or tweet me.
* It’s available in both PDF and HTML. So it can be read comfortably on a range of devices, or printed.
* It emphasizes visual explanations and techniques, to make the material more approachable.
* It livens up the text with hyperlinks, images, and margin notes that highlight points of history and curiosity. I also hope to add some animations and interactive tools soon.
The book is divided into three main parts. The first explains the basics of logic and probability, the second covers basic decision theory, and the last explores the philosophical foundations of probability and statistics. This last, philosophical part focuses on the Bayesian and frequentist approaches.
Free here: https://jonathanweisberg.org/vip/
The book assumes no deductive logic. The early chapters introduce the little that’s used. In fact almost no formal background is presumed, only very simple high school algebra.
I hope this book also offers more universal benefits.
* It is open access, hence free.
* It’s also open source, so other instructors can modify it to their liking.
* If you teach from this book I’d love to know: email or tweet me.
* It’s available in both PDF and HTML. So it can be read comfortably on a range of devices, or printed.
* It emphasizes visual explanations and techniques, to make the material more approachable.
* It livens up the text with hyperlinks, images, and margin notes that highlight points of history and curiosity. I also hope to add some animations and interactive tools soon.
The book is divided into three main parts. The first explains the basics of logic and probability, the second covers basic decision theory, and the last explores the philosophical foundations of probability and statistics. This last, philosophical part focuses on the Bayesian and frequentist approaches.
Free here: https://jonathanweisberg.org/vip/
- GenresPhilosophy
ebook
Published June 8, 2018
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Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews
April 8, 2020
A beautiful thing. Humorous, careful, with plenty of depth just under the surface.
It gives only the classical view, only the point estimate bit, only normal utility theory. If you are comfortable with formalism it is too slow. But it connects logic and probability and decision in the appropriately deep way. I didn't get any decision theory in philosophy class. Even in my economics classes Rational Choice was presented as a done deal, not argued for on the bedrock of expected value and Bayes. And it was a theoretical curio, not really for personal consumption.
This part of philosophy still gives me hope and awe - the hacker's end of formal/information-theoretic/Bayesian epistemology and 'science. The common thread is paying such close attention to maths and science that they begin to fade into it. Weisberg goes as far as some open questions, like probabilistic abduction and Bertrand's paradox. (It is important to show newbies more than just the finished part of the building.)
I was looking for a better absolute introduction than Tomassi or Hacking, and found it. Insofar as understanding probability is critical to patching the most common human errors, and insofar as stats is one of the few general thinking tools that really does reliably transfer out of the classroom, this is a vital thing for anyone who wants to think. Insofar as you presently think only in words this is the best object I know.
Minus a half for no solution book for the end-of-chapter exercises. (I know why, but still.)
Free here
It gives only the classical view, only the point estimate bit, only normal utility theory. If you are comfortable with formalism it is too slow. But it connects logic and probability and decision in the appropriately deep way. I didn't get any decision theory in philosophy class. Even in my economics classes Rational Choice was presented as a done deal, not argued for on the bedrock of expected value and Bayes. And it was a theoretical curio, not really for personal consumption.
This part of philosophy still gives me hope and awe - the hacker's end of formal/information-theoretic/Bayesian epistemology and 'science. The common thread is paying such close attention to maths and science that they begin to fade into it. Weisberg goes as far as some open questions, like probabilistic abduction and Bertrand's paradox. (It is important to show newbies more than just the finished part of the building.)
I was looking for a better absolute introduction than Tomassi or Hacking, and found it. Insofar as understanding probability is critical to patching the most common human errors, and insofar as stats is one of the few general thinking tools that really does reliably transfer out of the classroom, this is a vital thing for anyone who wants to think. Insofar as you presently think only in words this is the best object I know.
Minus a half for no solution book for the end-of-chapter exercises. (I know why, but still.)
Free here
January 1, 2025
Ok intro to elementary probability, not much to gain
Displaying 1 - 2 of 2 reviews