Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development

by Judith Rodin, Peter Schwartz, Claudia Juech

53 pages, Unknown Binding

Published May 1, 2010

Reviews

[Molly · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is a Rockefeller Foundation funded study with the question “How might technology affect barriers to building resilience and equitable growth in the developing world over the next 15 to 20 years?” The results are presented in detail in four possible scenarios, with the two main variables being Political & Economic Alignment and Adaptive Capacity. Taken into account were critical uncertainties including conflict, shock, and technological developments.

I found the study interesting to read because although it was written in 2010, one of the scenarios, “Lock Step”, is eerily similar to our current pandemic situation. 54 pages, available free to all online, it is very worth the read in an educational sense.

[Scipio Africanus · Rating 3 out of 5]

In Lockstep they predicted Covid, lockdowns, and increased totalitarianism across world in 2010. In Hack Attack they predicted Taliban resurgence and US pullout of Afghanistan. Also predicts a whole host of shit we have to deal with today. Other things predicted have not come to pass and man I hope they don't.

[Logan Streondj · Rating 3 out of 5]

It is a brief look at four different future scenarios. The book has become popular because of the authoritarian scenario. However the one that I like the most was the "smart scramble", though the author didn't really think it through very well. I don't really see why the internet would not work well there, indeed a mesh network should make it work just fine.
Also I don't know why the character did not tell the farmer there were other farmers also working on drought tolerant varieties, the smart thing would be to get them to connect to each other and exchange methods or seeds, as hybrids often perform better.