One of the prevailing clichés about Putin is that he is a master strategist, carefully calculating his every move, always one step ahead of the West. The reality is very different, writes Mark Galeotti: “In geopolitics as in judo, Putin is an opportunist. He has a sense of what constitutes a win, but no predetermined path towards it. He relies on quickly seizing any advantage he sees, rather than on a careful strategy… This helps explain why we are so often unable to predict Putin’s moves in advance – he himself doesn’t know what he’ll do next.”
The fact that Putin is a judoka, rather than a chess grandmaster, is also reflected in his style of government. Galeotti describes it as an “adhocracy”—a diffuse and informal system defined less by top-down commands than by bottom-up opportunism. Putin may set the overall tone and define broad objectives, but he very rarely gives direct instructions as to what he expects to be done. Instead, everything is based on unspoken rules and understandings, known as ponyatiye in Russian criminal jargon. Putin is essentially presiding over an army of smaller judokas, or “policy entrepreneurs,” who are constantly cooking up crazy schemes to please the boss:
“In some ways the system works in the same way as the start-up economy: lots of people with ideas – some good, some bad, some already being tried on a small scale and others that exist purely in their creators’ imaginations – all try to interest the one big investor in the Kremlin. Trying to predict what ideas will come out of this process based on Putin’s character is a completely futile task.
Instead, Putin’s state generally responds to opportunities. A British prime minister calls for a referendum on leaving the European Union; American Democratic Party officials practise poor computer security; people in the West begin to lose faith in their political systems and elites; opaque financial structures allow ‘dark money’ to distort economies and corrupt politics; social media bypasses the traditional press. Russia created none of these opportunities, but has demonstrably tried to exploit them. In effect, we in the West define what Putin’s state does to us, while he is simply taking advantage of the failures, broken promises and stress points in our systems.”
This approach to statecraft has generated a tremendous amount of tactical flexibility and initiative, but at the cost of duplication and corrosive competition. One example of such unhealthy rivalry is the hydra-headed monster of Russia’s intelligence services, consisting of the FSB, the SVR, the GRU, and the FSO. Galeotti notes that the existence of four overlapping spy agencies has created “a vicious cycle of escalating claims and conspiracy theories, as the various services compete for the boss’s attention with ever-more-lurid allegations. When Putin claims that the West is trying to undermine him, that Ukraine is run by neo-Nazis or that a secret ‘deep state’ conspiracy dominates Washington, is he just posturing, or is he in fact repeating eye-catching nonsense from intelligence briefings that aim to enthral rather than educate him?”
That last bit might hold some important clues about Putin’s botched invasion of Ukraine. And it begs a very interesting question: “While Putin certainly controls Russia’s intelligence agencies, how far do they control or at least influence him in return, through the picture of the world they paint?”