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The 10 Rules of Successful Nations
This short primer distils Ruchir Sharma's decades of global analytic experience into ten rules for identifying nations that are poised to take off or crash.
A wake-up call to economists who failed to foresee every recent crisis, including the cataclysm of 2008, 10 Rules is full of insights on signs of political, economic, and social change. Sharma explains, for example, why autocrats are bad for the economy; robots are a blessing, not a curse; and consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about inflation. He shows how currency crises begin with the flight of knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crises start in private companies, not government; and why the best news for any country is none at all.
Rethinking economics as a practical art, 10 Rules is a must-read for business, political and academic leaders who want to understand the most important forces that shape a nation's future.
A wake-up call to economists who failed to foresee every recent crisis, including the cataclysm of 2008, 10 Rules is full of insights on signs of political, economic, and social change. Sharma explains, for example, why autocrats are bad for the economy; robots are a blessing, not a curse; and consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about inflation. He shows how currency crises begin with the flight of knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crises start in private companies, not government; and why the best news for any country is none at all.
Rethinking economics as a practical art, 10 Rules is a must-read for business, political and academic leaders who want to understand the most important forces that shape a nation's future.
256 pages, Paperback
Published April 9, 2020
155 people are currently reading
1128 people want to read
About the author
Ruchir Sharma
7 books355 followersRuchir Sharma is the Chairman of Rockefeller International and Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Breakout Capital – an investment firm focused on emerging markets and partnered with Rockefeller Capital Management. Ruchir came to Rockefeller from Morgan Stanley Investment Management, where over a 25 year career he rose to become Chief Global Strategist and Head of Emerging Markets, managing close to $20 billion in assets. As a global investor and author, he travels frequently to different countries, meeting with political and business leaders. From his extensive travels and field research, Ruchir developed a pioneering system of 10 rules for identifying promising economies, which he captured in a 2016 New York Times bestseller, The Rise and Fall of Nations. Recognized that year by Barron’s as “Wall Street’s New Global Thinker,” Ruchir was a New York Times contributing opinion writer from 2016 to 2021 and is currently a contributing editor for the Financial Times.
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 51 reviews
November 24, 2020
A wonderful book explaining complex economic phenomenon in a lucid manner!
This is an abridged version of Rise & Fall of Nations, but seems like a complete piece in itself. The ten rules are laid out masterfully for readers to understand - neither too simple nor too complex. The words are backed by numbers from reliable sources and when data consists of multiple countries across geographies, the arguments feel much more concrete!
I really liked the objectivity with which the book is written. The author doesn't just explain the concept but also provides exact rules to judge a nation's progress. For example, he says that ideal range for country's capital investment must be 25% - 35% of GDP (backed by post-war data).
Listing 10 rules for record - Population, Politics, State Control, Inequality, Geography, Inflation, Investment, Currency, Debt, Hype.
Anyone having even a slight liking for Economics must read this book!
June 21, 2020
This book is just an abridged version of ‘The Rise and Fall of Nations’- it wasn’t really clear from the description
I was expecting it to have more information and analysis of updated data
I’ve read Breakout Nations, Rise and Fall of Nations and numerous articles by Ruchir Sharma. This book doesn’t have any new information or new takes
If I had to pick, I would read The Rise and Fall of Nations instead of this. It is much more information and makes for a more engaging read
I was expecting it to have more information and analysis of updated data
I’ve read Breakout Nations, Rise and Fall of Nations and numerous articles by Ruchir Sharma. This book doesn’t have any new information or new takes
If I had to pick, I would read The Rise and Fall of Nations instead of this. It is much more information and makes for a more engaging read
October 21, 2020
The 10 rules of successful nations
What goes into making a successful economy? Is there a pattern to the rise and fall of an economy? Does history offer any clues to booms and busts that economists try to predict, mostly with little success? Are markets more efficient in sniffing out a crisis?
Indian investor and fund manager Ruchir Sharma, who has written three books on related subjects in this decade, lists 10 rules behind successful economies in his new book, an abridged version of his 'The Rise And Fall of Nations: Forces Of Change In A Post-Crisis World' published in 2016. He has analysed data on fifty-six postwar economies that recorded a growth of 6% or more for a decade.
Sharma makes it clear that rarely do countries score highly on all the ten rules. But the rules give a broad idea on where to look for the next big thing.
Here are the ten rules in brief:
Population
The author thinks that the working age population is a major factor, accounting for 50% of economic growth. A 1 % decline in the working age population can cut growth by 1 percentage point, as it became evident in the last fifteen years. While a nation may have a sizeable young working force, it is important to see if its government is taking advantage of it.
What is worrying is that workforces even in countries like China and India have been shrinking in the recent years due to a fall in fertility rates. The population growth is expected to come down from 2%to 1% after 2020 and the trend will continue throughout this century, according to the United Nations.
But population without investments and job opportunities can only be a burden and create unrest, as the Arab Spring revolts proved. India has enough workers, but not enough work.
Politics
Democrats have been better than aristocrats for the economy in the last three decades, and those with a mass following and fresh to power served as agents of change than obstacle, says the author. Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Vladimir Putin of Russia in their earlier stints and Ronald Regan in the first term are some of the examples. In contrast, Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore kept pushing for reforms all through his reign over three decades.
Inequality
Inequality is a choker of growth. Between 2009 and 2019, the number of billionaires in the world doubled, from 1,011 to 2,153, with their combined wealth rising from $3.6 trillion to $8.7 trillion. In India, the top ten Indian tycoons control 12% of GDP, compared to 1% in China. In Russia, 100 billionaires control 26% of GDP. As per 2019 data on the emerging economies, the billionaire share of wealth came close to 15% only in India and Taiwan.
Sharma makes a distinction between “good billionaires” and “bad billionaires”. The latter make money from rent-seeking industries like mining and real estate, while “good billionaires”make money from manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and technology. In South Korea only 6% of wealth comes from rent-seeking industries. The proportion of “bad billionaires” in the emerging economies today is close to 30%.
State power
The debate over the ideal size of the government in an economy is as old as capitalism. Sharma’s answer is that a successful nation has the right-sized government. What is more important is where and how the government is spending its money and whether its policies hamper the growth of the private sector.
Among developed economies, the French government spends 56% of GDP,which is 18% above the 39% average, driving up taxes and businesses out of the country. The U.S., Austria and Australia spend about 35% to 40%.
Citing the example of India not respecting its law on capping the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, the author says governments that don’t take budget deficits seriously do disservice to growth. Likewise, governments that meddle with state-owned companies and banks to control inflation run up debts. For instance, Russia notoriously allowed oligarchs to take over well-run private companies, while Poland, which ditched communism at the same time Russia did, followed Western European countries in nurturing the private sector.
Geography
The rise of incomes in 1500 in Europe is attributed to its location and good policies. Nations that build infrastructure to connect with distant economies and trade ties with its neighbours invest in growth. China is a role model in building ports and harbours to boost its exports. Its ambitious Belt and Road initiative is an example of how a nation could make the most of its geographical advantage. Vietnam, which was struggling in the last decade, is the most recent example of a nation using its trade routes to boost its economy.
Another way of exploiting one's geographical advantage is promoting trade in its neighbourhood. The economic miracles wrought by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China are attributed to the trade deals they struck. In contrast, South Asian countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are hampered by lingering hostilities.
Investment
Another major factor determining growth is investment. Going by the author’s list of successful fifty-six countries, their 6% decadal growth was due to an investment of 25% of the GDP. Countries like Brazil, Nigeria and Mexico stagnated when their investments were less than 20% of the GDP. For developed countries, it can be lower, as infrastructure for growth is already in place.
The author makes a distinction between good investment binges and bad ones. Spending on technology, infrastructure and manufacturing boosts growth and leaves behind assets like factories, fibre-optic cables and railroads. In the nineteenth century, the railroad project in the US led to booms and busts, but eventually enabled the nation to emerge as an industrial powerhouse.
On the other hand, bad investments in real estate and commodities production, after a good run, leave behind debts. China initially invested heavily in factories, roads and bridges, which turned out to be productive assets. Later, it put its money in real estate, which ended in wasteful expenditure.
The author’s contention is that before the global financial crisis, India chose to invest in technology with the hope of taking the service escalator to prosperity. It concentrated on the Information Technology services and neglected the manufacturing sector. A decade later, India remains a back-office operations centre, whereas countries like China, Thailand and South Korea, which focused also on manufacturing exports, progressed at a healthy pace.
Inflation
Developed economies that manage inflation at 2% and emerging economies at 4% avoid crisis. High inflation is a threat to growth. Low inflation can slip into deflation, as it happened in Japan. But low inflation could be a result of the discovery of a new tech or innovation of a financial product, which leads to growth. History shows that while inflation is bad for the economy, deflation has coexisted with growth.
Currency
Cheap currency is fine as long as it is stable and does not trigger a crisis. But cheapening currency can raise foreign debt if the nation is not exporting enough. An expensive currency can create a current account deficit, draining its foreign reserves, as it happened in Thailand in 1990s.
Debt
A country where private sector debt grows faster than the economy for five straight years is heading for a crisis. Again Thailand is an example where everyone was afflicted by a debt mania in the 1990s. A nation can recover from a crisis if private credit grows slower than its economy. But a slowdown in credit growth can lead to debtophobia.
According to the author's research when private debt exceeds 40 percentage points of GDP, it is a sign of a crisis coming. After the crisis, if debts fall too sharply, it can paralyse the economy.
So, the message is avoid debt mania as well as debtophobia.
Sharma compares three countries to show how debt management makes a difference to the economy. In 1992, when Taiwan was hit by a crisis, it minimised the role of state banks in lending and investing in projects and encouraged private banks in the business. The economy shrank, but only from 9 % to 7%. Whereas Japan, following a crisis in the same decade, bailed out its private banks and took on the burden of debt and ended up with a 405 % debt-GDP ratio. Its GDP fell to 1% from 5%. In 2019, the Japanese economy was less than one third of what it would have been had it maintained its growth of the 1980s. The author warns China could face a similar scenario if it continues to sustain its boom with debt.
Hype
The author's last rule addresses the perils of economic forecasting. Sharma contends that the media often senses the big changes late and economists and international agencies like the IMF have been simplistic in their forecasts. Analysts at the IMF predicted that emerging economies like Brazil, India and China, which saw their growth more than double with an average rate over 7% after 2002 , would have an average income almost equal to the developed world. But the average growth in the emerging markets fell to 4%.
In 2011, 'Time' magazine carried a story whether this is China's century or India's, when the emerging economies were actually slowing down. An economy's good run or bad times don't last too long. Also, crisis-hit economies that the media ignores slowly re-emerge as success stories.
After the 2008 crisis, the economy has been marked by four Ds - depopulation, declining productivity, deglobalisation and growing debt. Any forecast for a period beyond five years is foolhardy, cautions the author.
S. Radha Krishnan
What goes into making a successful economy? Is there a pattern to the rise and fall of an economy? Does history offer any clues to booms and busts that economists try to predict, mostly with little success? Are markets more efficient in sniffing out a crisis?
Indian investor and fund manager Ruchir Sharma, who has written three books on related subjects in this decade, lists 10 rules behind successful economies in his new book, an abridged version of his 'The Rise And Fall of Nations: Forces Of Change In A Post-Crisis World' published in 2016. He has analysed data on fifty-six postwar economies that recorded a growth of 6% or more for a decade.
Sharma makes it clear that rarely do countries score highly on all the ten rules. But the rules give a broad idea on where to look for the next big thing.
Here are the ten rules in brief:
Population
The author thinks that the working age population is a major factor, accounting for 50% of economic growth. A 1 % decline in the working age population can cut growth by 1 percentage point, as it became evident in the last fifteen years. While a nation may have a sizeable young working force, it is important to see if its government is taking advantage of it.
What is worrying is that workforces even in countries like China and India have been shrinking in the recent years due to a fall in fertility rates. The population growth is expected to come down from 2%to 1% after 2020 and the trend will continue throughout this century, according to the United Nations.
But population without investments and job opportunities can only be a burden and create unrest, as the Arab Spring revolts proved. India has enough workers, but not enough work.
Politics
Democrats have been better than aristocrats for the economy in the last three decades, and those with a mass following and fresh to power served as agents of change than obstacle, says the author. Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Vladimir Putin of Russia in their earlier stints and Ronald Regan in the first term are some of the examples. In contrast, Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore kept pushing for reforms all through his reign over three decades.
Inequality
Inequality is a choker of growth. Between 2009 and 2019, the number of billionaires in the world doubled, from 1,011 to 2,153, with their combined wealth rising from $3.6 trillion to $8.7 trillion. In India, the top ten Indian tycoons control 12% of GDP, compared to 1% in China. In Russia, 100 billionaires control 26% of GDP. As per 2019 data on the emerging economies, the billionaire share of wealth came close to 15% only in India and Taiwan.
Sharma makes a distinction between “good billionaires” and “bad billionaires”. The latter make money from rent-seeking industries like mining and real estate, while “good billionaires”make money from manufacturing, pharmaceuticals and technology. In South Korea only 6% of wealth comes from rent-seeking industries. The proportion of “bad billionaires” in the emerging economies today is close to 30%.
State power
The debate over the ideal size of the government in an economy is as old as capitalism. Sharma’s answer is that a successful nation has the right-sized government. What is more important is where and how the government is spending its money and whether its policies hamper the growth of the private sector.
Among developed economies, the French government spends 56% of GDP,which is 18% above the 39% average, driving up taxes and businesses out of the country. The U.S., Austria and Australia spend about 35% to 40%.
Citing the example of India not respecting its law on capping the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, the author says governments that don’t take budget deficits seriously do disservice to growth. Likewise, governments that meddle with state-owned companies and banks to control inflation run up debts. For instance, Russia notoriously allowed oligarchs to take over well-run private companies, while Poland, which ditched communism at the same time Russia did, followed Western European countries in nurturing the private sector.
Geography
The rise of incomes in 1500 in Europe is attributed to its location and good policies. Nations that build infrastructure to connect with distant economies and trade ties with its neighbours invest in growth. China is a role model in building ports and harbours to boost its exports. Its ambitious Belt and Road initiative is an example of how a nation could make the most of its geographical advantage. Vietnam, which was struggling in the last decade, is the most recent example of a nation using its trade routes to boost its economy.
Another way of exploiting one's geographical advantage is promoting trade in its neighbourhood. The economic miracles wrought by Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China are attributed to the trade deals they struck. In contrast, South Asian countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are hampered by lingering hostilities.
Investment
Another major factor determining growth is investment. Going by the author’s list of successful fifty-six countries, their 6% decadal growth was due to an investment of 25% of the GDP. Countries like Brazil, Nigeria and Mexico stagnated when their investments were less than 20% of the GDP. For developed countries, it can be lower, as infrastructure for growth is already in place.
The author makes a distinction between good investment binges and bad ones. Spending on technology, infrastructure and manufacturing boosts growth and leaves behind assets like factories, fibre-optic cables and railroads. In the nineteenth century, the railroad project in the US led to booms and busts, but eventually enabled the nation to emerge as an industrial powerhouse.
On the other hand, bad investments in real estate and commodities production, after a good run, leave behind debts. China initially invested heavily in factories, roads and bridges, which turned out to be productive assets. Later, it put its money in real estate, which ended in wasteful expenditure.
The author’s contention is that before the global financial crisis, India chose to invest in technology with the hope of taking the service escalator to prosperity. It concentrated on the Information Technology services and neglected the manufacturing sector. A decade later, India remains a back-office operations centre, whereas countries like China, Thailand and South Korea, which focused also on manufacturing exports, progressed at a healthy pace.
Inflation
Developed economies that manage inflation at 2% and emerging economies at 4% avoid crisis. High inflation is a threat to growth. Low inflation can slip into deflation, as it happened in Japan. But low inflation could be a result of the discovery of a new tech or innovation of a financial product, which leads to growth. History shows that while inflation is bad for the economy, deflation has coexisted with growth.
Currency
Cheap currency is fine as long as it is stable and does not trigger a crisis. But cheapening currency can raise foreign debt if the nation is not exporting enough. An expensive currency can create a current account deficit, draining its foreign reserves, as it happened in Thailand in 1990s.
Debt
A country where private sector debt grows faster than the economy for five straight years is heading for a crisis. Again Thailand is an example where everyone was afflicted by a debt mania in the 1990s. A nation can recover from a crisis if private credit grows slower than its economy. But a slowdown in credit growth can lead to debtophobia.
According to the author's research when private debt exceeds 40 percentage points of GDP, it is a sign of a crisis coming. After the crisis, if debts fall too sharply, it can paralyse the economy.
So, the message is avoid debt mania as well as debtophobia.
Sharma compares three countries to show how debt management makes a difference to the economy. In 1992, when Taiwan was hit by a crisis, it minimised the role of state banks in lending and investing in projects and encouraged private banks in the business. The economy shrank, but only from 9 % to 7%. Whereas Japan, following a crisis in the same decade, bailed out its private banks and took on the burden of debt and ended up with a 405 % debt-GDP ratio. Its GDP fell to 1% from 5%. In 2019, the Japanese economy was less than one third of what it would have been had it maintained its growth of the 1980s. The author warns China could face a similar scenario if it continues to sustain its boom with debt.
Hype
The author's last rule addresses the perils of economic forecasting. Sharma contends that the media often senses the big changes late and economists and international agencies like the IMF have been simplistic in their forecasts. Analysts at the IMF predicted that emerging economies like Brazil, India and China, which saw their growth more than double with an average rate over 7% after 2002 , would have an average income almost equal to the developed world. But the average growth in the emerging markets fell to 4%.
In 2011, 'Time' magazine carried a story whether this is China's century or India's, when the emerging economies were actually slowing down. An economy's good run or bad times don't last too long. Also, crisis-hit economies that the media ignores slowly re-emerge as success stories.
After the 2008 crisis, the economy has been marked by four Ds - depopulation, declining productivity, deglobalisation and growing debt. Any forecast for a period beyond five years is foolhardy, cautions the author.
S. Radha Krishnan
July 13, 2021
Probably the best book I’ve read on forecasting GDP and one I wish I’d read thirty years ago. I learned early that GDP growth is a function of population and productivity plus epsilon where epsilon varied by country and was not well defined. This book helps clarify how to derived epsilon.
Population and productive combine to account for about half of a country’s GDP growth. This book expands on how population changes (new young workers, retirees, and immigrants) and productivity is impacted by technology.
The other nine attributes are:
2. Political leadership
3. Wealth inequality
4. State power
5. Geography
6. Investment
7. Inflation
8. Currency strength
9. Debt
10. Hype
These are mostly self-explanatory but the details and nuances is how Ruchir Sharma’s book excels. He names names to highlight examples of good and bad political leadership and even shows how the same leader can be both at different times.
I especially liked the differentiation of good billionaires and bad ones. Good billionaires are investing back into the economy thereby leveraging their wealth to increase the nations GDP. Bad ones are typically extracting and hording that wealth.
I listened to the audio book and missed #10, I thought it was commodity dependence. The economies of countries with high dependence on commodities (e.g. Chile, copper in the 1990s; Saudi Arabia, oil since 1940s onward; or Brazil, rubber production in the 1900s) can swing wildly and need other industries to counterbalance that dependency.
No GDP growth formula emanates from these rules but it provides a great framework to compare and contrast countries. I'm recommending it to colleagues in forecasting roles.
I found the book informative, easy to listen to, and well structured as Sharma listed the attributes impacting GDP growth. A solid four stars.
Population and productive combine to account for about half of a country’s GDP growth. This book expands on how population changes (new young workers, retirees, and immigrants) and productivity is impacted by technology.
The other nine attributes are:
2. Political leadership
3. Wealth inequality
4. State power
5. Geography
6. Investment
7. Inflation
8. Currency strength
9. Debt
10. Hype
These are mostly self-explanatory but the details and nuances is how Ruchir Sharma’s book excels. He names names to highlight examples of good and bad political leadership and even shows how the same leader can be both at different times.
I especially liked the differentiation of good billionaires and bad ones. Good billionaires are investing back into the economy thereby leveraging their wealth to increase the nations GDP. Bad ones are typically extracting and hording that wealth.
I listened to the audio book and missed #10, I thought it was commodity dependence. The economies of countries with high dependence on commodities (e.g. Chile, copper in the 1990s; Saudi Arabia, oil since 1940s onward; or Brazil, rubber production in the 1900s) can swing wildly and need other industries to counterbalance that dependency.
No GDP growth formula emanates from these rules but it provides a great framework to compare and contrast countries. I'm recommending it to colleagues in forecasting roles.
I found the book informative, easy to listen to, and well structured as Sharma listed the attributes impacting GDP growth. A solid four stars.
October 13, 2020
There comes once in while a book that is refreshingly simple and yet exceptional. This one is one such. It is easier to tell people what Economics does than to teach someone what Economics is all about. The ten rules that this book brings to you are distilled from the author’s earlier seminal work “The Rise and Fall of Nations”. “The 10 Rules of Successful Nations” is an extremely useful book for those who are trying to make sense of what is happening around the world. The book’s focus is a little less on how they are happening but more on how it is shaping the geo politics as a consequence of economic policies followed by various countries around the world. Whether Economics is a dismal science or not, authors like Ruchir Sharma could lend it an element of respectability by making it a lot more understandable to a common man. Deploying extensive statistics with the assistance of technology economists have become quite adept at predicting the past. This author is no exception. Even in this extremely chaotic world the modern day practicing economists like Sharma are able to discern patterns and reasons for whatever are happening around you. The sheer simplicity of the narrative is the book’s primary strength so much so that he manages to demystify an abstract subject like economics.
Politics is one of the topics covered by the author in the book while developing his rules. A little more ground could have been covered on the subject of politics considering the importance that politics plays in a country’s development. Economics without politics is like god without a religion. Political philosophies drive economic ideologies. The book talks of rules that have helped nations to succeed right from the impact of population growth to their own geography to inflation to what have you including politics. In my opinion rules and practices that govern the society have a large say in determining the success or otherwise of any nation. Without in anyway wanting to undermine these rules I must say this much; the book looks incomplete without taking a deep dive into the social fabric of the society. A reader from India like me was expecting some reiterations of what India has done or failed to do especially after seeing the author frenetically studio hopping while promoting his book talking incessantly about India and its economic landscape. An Indian reader is justified in expecting a little more substantive coverage of Indian economics considering the fact that it is a state that have had everything going for it; yet not able to breast the tape – a case study in itself. At least this country has given to the theory of economics the concept of the Hindu rate of growth. It is then natural to expect how this is playing out in the Indian context especially since India has a reserved seat at the high table in organisations like the G20. In the end without hesitation this book is highly recommended for the intellectual and the indifferent alike. Normally it is a sin to pen a critique longer than the book itself. But this book deserves one.
Politics is one of the topics covered by the author in the book while developing his rules. A little more ground could have been covered on the subject of politics considering the importance that politics plays in a country’s development. Economics without politics is like god without a religion. Political philosophies drive economic ideologies. The book talks of rules that have helped nations to succeed right from the impact of population growth to their own geography to inflation to what have you including politics. In my opinion rules and practices that govern the society have a large say in determining the success or otherwise of any nation. Without in anyway wanting to undermine these rules I must say this much; the book looks incomplete without taking a deep dive into the social fabric of the society. A reader from India like me was expecting some reiterations of what India has done or failed to do especially after seeing the author frenetically studio hopping while promoting his book talking incessantly about India and its economic landscape. An Indian reader is justified in expecting a little more substantive coverage of Indian economics considering the fact that it is a state that have had everything going for it; yet not able to breast the tape – a case study in itself. At least this country has given to the theory of economics the concept of the Hindu rate of growth. It is then natural to expect how this is playing out in the Indian context especially since India has a reserved seat at the high table in organisations like the G20. In the end without hesitation this book is highly recommended for the intellectual and the indifferent alike. Normally it is a sin to pen a critique longer than the book itself. But this book deserves one.
February 2, 2026
Do you want to venture into politics?" This question has come up frequently as I've been reading Ruchir Sharma's book "The 10 Rules of Successful Nations." My answer has consistently been "No." While I am already a leader in my sphere of influence, I find myself more intrigued by economics.
For a nation to succeed on the world stage, what does it take? According to Mr. Sharma, a nation doesn't need to fulfill all ten rules but would benefit from adhering to most of them. He identifies several key factors:
- Population
- Politics
- Inequality
- State Power
- Geography
- Investment
- Inflation
- Currency
- Debt
- Hype
Mr. Sharma emphasizes a fundamental principle that underpins all these rules: the recognition of the impermanence of economic trends and the regular rhythms of change.
Reflecting on Kenya in relation to these ten rules reveals significant gaps. It's not that we lack understanding of the trends; rather, our systems have made a select few comfortable. This comfort often hinders the refinement and implementation of necessary policies, as change can be perceived as a loss or discomfort to their gains.
I found it particularly thought-provoking when reading about State Power. "Successful nations, as Mr. Sharma notes, build governments that are right-sized—not overly bloated and smothering, nor too small to provide essential services like police, schools, roads, and telephone networks. Their government spending is balanced compared to other nations within their income class."
After engaging with this book, I am left with more questions, especially regarding inflation and currency trends. I am curious about what it would take to maintain a sense of balance in these areas.
For a nation to succeed on the world stage, what does it take? According to Mr. Sharma, a nation doesn't need to fulfill all ten rules but would benefit from adhering to most of them. He identifies several key factors:
- Population
- Politics
- Inequality
- State Power
- Geography
- Investment
- Inflation
- Currency
- Debt
- Hype
Mr. Sharma emphasizes a fundamental principle that underpins all these rules: the recognition of the impermanence of economic trends and the regular rhythms of change.
Reflecting on Kenya in relation to these ten rules reveals significant gaps. It's not that we lack understanding of the trends; rather, our systems have made a select few comfortable. This comfort often hinders the refinement and implementation of necessary policies, as change can be perceived as a loss or discomfort to their gains.
I found it particularly thought-provoking when reading about State Power. "Successful nations, as Mr. Sharma notes, build governments that are right-sized—not overly bloated and smothering, nor too small to provide essential services like police, schools, roads, and telephone networks. Their government spending is balanced compared to other nations within their income class."
After engaging with this book, I am left with more questions, especially regarding inflation and currency trends. I am curious about what it would take to maintain a sense of balance in these areas.
November 23, 2021
A good primer in Economics. Author supports his findings with empirical studies properly backed by data. It is easy to read and understand and does not need any prior knowledge on the subject.
Author has used his 25 years of experience in looking at these economies and distilled the factors that drive big crisis as well sustained growth in emerging economies.
The ten factors are - population (the most important factor, and the trend is very difficult to change in the near term), Politics, State Control, Inequality (% of billionaires wealth as a % of GDP), Geography (location and having trade partners) , Inflation (keep it around 2% in developed and 4% in developing economy) , Investment (keep it above 25% of GDP into productive assets), Currency (weaker is not bad, helps export), Debt (private sector debt should not grow faster than GDP for five straight years), Hype (media is mostly late to the party).
This is an abridged version of Rise & Fall of Nations but with updated data.
Author has used his 25 years of experience in looking at these economies and distilled the factors that drive big crisis as well sustained growth in emerging economies.
The ten factors are - population (the most important factor, and the trend is very difficult to change in the near term), Politics, State Control, Inequality (% of billionaires wealth as a % of GDP), Geography (location and having trade partners) , Inflation (keep it around 2% in developed and 4% in developing economy) , Investment (keep it above 25% of GDP into productive assets), Currency (weaker is not bad, helps export), Debt (private sector debt should not grow faster than GDP for five straight years), Hype (media is mostly late to the party).
This is an abridged version of Rise & Fall of Nations but with updated data.
May 27, 2023
This is a sort of abridged version of Sharma's previous book, Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles, which I haven't read. In any case, it's a no-nonsense overview of macro country analysis, focusing on simple rules of thumb. It wont't make anyone rich without much more effort on other topics, but it's a pretty good primer that stood well to the test of time.
March 30, 2021
A shorter version of Ruchir Sharma's previous book 'Rise and Fall of nations'. A complete 5 star book just like that one.
June 4, 2024
Brilliant book for those layman like myself to understand what fuels success of countries. The author Ruchir takes extensive research and his own analysis to come up with 10 factors that indicate which direction a country is heading. For those that want the more detailed version, please read his book - The Rise and Fall of Nations
December 21, 2020
The cult of GDP live and well in this book. No analysis of wether the unhinged pursuit of one floored economic metric is really the definition of a nations success. No analysis on the uncertainty of calculating GDP. Nor any analysis of what the singular GDP figure actually represents?!?
Even if you take GDP to be your measuring stick it should ALWAYS be rationalised by population. GDP per capita would be a far better deity for this particular cult.
Lots of cherry picking of data, lots of correlation dressed up as causation, and lots of anecdotal evidence.
Where is the discussion around a healthy legislative body? Investment in education? Attack on absolute poverty? Do none of these questions merit a discussion in the pursuit of a successful nation?
Poor book.
Even if you take GDP to be your measuring stick it should ALWAYS be rationalised by population. GDP per capita would be a far better deity for this particular cult.
Lots of cherry picking of data, lots of correlation dressed up as causation, and lots of anecdotal evidence.
Where is the discussion around a healthy legislative body? Investment in education? Attack on absolute poverty? Do none of these questions merit a discussion in the pursuit of a successful nation?
Poor book.
January 11, 2021
My third book by Ruchir Sharma after Breakout Nations and The Rise and Fall of Nations. A very well presented and lucidly explained with cohesive arguments The 10 Rules of Successful Nations, throws light on societies and countries and explains what it takes to be a successful economy and even though this book talks a lot lot less about India, though the author is an Indian, it clearly with examples explains why India will never be another China and will always remain an emerging country languishing in poverty and despair.
According to the writer the spectacular economic growth India achieved during the decade of 2004-2014 was an exception, an aberration and it's real long term potential growth rate is 4-5 percent, derisively called as 'Hindu Rate' of growth it had in 70s and 80s and can never aspire to be a global power or an Asian power; it can never be even a South Asian power and even countries like Bangladesh once considered as a 'rat hole' has overtaken it in per capita GDP terms. With undue protectionism, trade barriers, high tariffs, excessive bureaucracy, red tapism, unhinged jingoism, crippling of independent democratic institutions and compromised judiciary it will always remain as a poverty stricken third world country.
This book also busts some of the widely held false myths and proves why positive population growth is a must for the country's economic development and why the introduction of robots will enhance productivity and is a good thing for economic advancement in the long run and how automation will make way for better and enhanced production of goods making it more affordable and cheaper.
This a well researched book and is a must for investors (Mr. Sharma is the Chief Global Strategist and head of the Emerging Markets Equity team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and manages a corpus of more than 20 billion US dollars!) and market participants and people who are interested in geo-economic progress of countries in the world.
3.5 Stars.
Favorite Quote:
“Most gurus and forecasters are willing to give people what they want: exotic reasons to believe that they are in with the smart crowd".
April 14, 2024
The concept of the book is interesting.
Nevertheless, some arguments seem to be lacking.
The author understands "successful" in a rather narrow sense, limiting his understanding to GDP-growth. While he considers population growth as a central aspect, focusing on people in the workforce, he does not analyse GDP per capita development. Additionally, GDP has been criticised for decades as a measure of success, as transfer of unpaid labour to paid labour (like child care, care for elderly etc) can be important drivers of GDP growth while the added value for the economy is debatable. Mainly, unpaid work becomes visible through such developments.
Furthermore, when sustainability is mentioned, only economic and financial sustainability is considered. Social or ecological sustainability seems to play no role whatsoever.
To add to that, Europeans rise in wealth after 1500 has been attributed to policies securing trade and private assets, not even mentioning exploitation and slavery.
All of these critiques could have been addressed in small footnotes clarifying his assumptions or acknowledging limitations of his ideas which, unfortunately, did not happen.
Nevertheless, some arguments seem to be lacking.
The author understands "successful" in a rather narrow sense, limiting his understanding to GDP-growth. While he considers population growth as a central aspect, focusing on people in the workforce, he does not analyse GDP per capita development. Additionally, GDP has been criticised for decades as a measure of success, as transfer of unpaid labour to paid labour (like child care, care for elderly etc) can be important drivers of GDP growth while the added value for the economy is debatable. Mainly, unpaid work becomes visible through such developments.
Furthermore, when sustainability is mentioned, only economic and financial sustainability is considered. Social or ecological sustainability seems to play no role whatsoever.
To add to that, Europeans rise in wealth after 1500 has been attributed to policies securing trade and private assets, not even mentioning exploitation and slavery.
All of these critiques could have been addressed in small footnotes clarifying his assumptions or acknowledging limitations of his ideas which, unfortunately, did not happen.
November 7, 2020
10 Rules Of Successful Nations by Ruchir Sharma is a non fiction book which talks about the economic, social and political habits of successful nations across the globe in general.
Ruchi Sharma himself has traveled to various countries over time and is also a investor. So here we see the author challenging some textbook knowledge and provides 10 rules for economists as well as general readers.
The book is very well researched, ofcourse but also equally well executed. This book is going to make you help understand what is going on around the world. I really liked author has used Forbes billionaire list to see a nation's black wealth.
I, coming from a pure non financial / non economics background, truly enjoyed reading this book as well as made sense of each and every rule written and explained. Population, politics, geography, etc. everything in this book has been discussed on point. So non fiction lovers pick this up.
Ruchi Sharma himself has traveled to various countries over time and is also a investor. So here we see the author challenging some textbook knowledge and provides 10 rules for economists as well as general readers.
The book is very well researched, ofcourse but also equally well executed. This book is going to make you help understand what is going on around the world. I really liked author has used Forbes billionaire list to see a nation's black wealth.
I, coming from a pure non financial / non economics background, truly enjoyed reading this book as well as made sense of each and every rule written and explained. Population, politics, geography, etc. everything in this book has been discussed on point. So non fiction lovers pick this up.
November 17, 2020
10 Rules is full of insights on signs of political, economic, and social change.
It willprove to be a very insightful read backed by facts for business, political and academic leaders and even anyone who is willing to understand these subjects whose knowledge helps us understand the basic and most important forces that shape a nation's future.The author explains a great range of points from population , currency, inflation, dept to investment. Some good topics to read are - Why autocrats are bad for the economy; Robots are a blessing, not a curse; How Consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about inflation. He shows how currency crisis begin with the flight of knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crisis start in private companies, not governmen, etc.
Things are kept lucid as the parts are presented in a brief manner under subheadings with intriguing titles. Definitely this book will enrich our knowledge towards these aspects.
It willprove to be a very insightful read backed by facts for business, political and academic leaders and even anyone who is willing to understand these subjects whose knowledge helps us understand the basic and most important forces that shape a nation's future.The author explains a great range of points from population , currency, inflation, dept to investment. Some good topics to read are - Why autocrats are bad for the economy; Robots are a blessing, not a curse; How Consumer prices don't tell you all you need to know about inflation. He shows how currency crisis begin with the flight of knowledgeable locals, not evil foreigners; how debt crisis start in private companies, not governmen, etc.
Things are kept lucid as the parts are presented in a brief manner under subheadings with intriguing titles. Definitely this book will enrich our knowledge towards these aspects.
June 16, 2024
This short primer consolidates ten rules for identifying nations that are poised to take off or crash. The book covers political, economic, and social change.
As good as the chapters are constructed, explained and concluded, there are various points which were overseen. If a country’s economy was making or breaking was so easy to identify with ten rules, everybody might be an economist.
It is a decent read and a great book to understand how the economy works. The book covers major important topics like GDP, investments, debt, currency, politics, state power, inflation, deflation, etc. Each chapter/rule is briefly touched in some 15-20 pages. Many important topics and questions should have been a part of this book to discuss what makes or breaks a nation.
Regardless, this book is a good starting point to ramp up a discussion. In simple words, it's a no-nonsense overview of macro country analysis. Sadly, the nonsense should have been considered.
As good as the chapters are constructed, explained and concluded, there are various points which were overseen. If a country’s economy was making or breaking was so easy to identify with ten rules, everybody might be an economist.
It is a decent read and a great book to understand how the economy works. The book covers major important topics like GDP, investments, debt, currency, politics, state power, inflation, deflation, etc. Each chapter/rule is briefly touched in some 15-20 pages. Many important topics and questions should have been a part of this book to discuss what makes or breaks a nation.
Regardless, this book is a good starting point to ramp up a discussion. In simple words, it's a no-nonsense overview of macro country analysis. Sadly, the nonsense should have been considered.
January 29, 2021
Sharma's "10 rules of successful nations" lays out simplistic ground rules on how countries can succeed within the volatile economic world following the crash of 2008. The book brings in social, political, and predominately economic rules that can play a major role in pushing emerging nations into developed nations and vice versa. Each rule contains examples of what to do and not to do, often citing "Asian Miracle" countries, China, USA, and Russia.
The book becomes very dense and technical towards the end and the description of currency shows the gap of knowledge in the field of economics that has yet to be bridged. Overall, the book provides a good set of ground rules on what countries could emerge as predominant superpowers in the years to come.
The book becomes very dense and technical towards the end and the description of currency shows the gap of knowledge in the field of economics that has yet to be bridged. Overall, the book provides a good set of ground rules on what countries could emerge as predominant superpowers in the years to come.
April 17, 2021
It is always a delight to read one of Ruchir Sharma's books. The way he delves into the realm of Macroeconomics, using it's principles to break down the growth of global economies is second to none. He is a very capable writer who helps the reader develop a deeper understanding of the subject.
This book of his is written along similar lines. The book's language is simple yet engaging. It truly feels like an adventure when his book's tenets help you to understand the jigsaw puzzle that is the global economy. His research highlights not just the hyped economies in the news but also those that have escaped limelight.
I will highly recommend this book to folks who love economics and want to better understand how countries undergo booms and busts over the decades of their growth.
This book of his is written along similar lines. The book's language is simple yet engaging. It truly feels like an adventure when his book's tenets help you to understand the jigsaw puzzle that is the global economy. His research highlights not just the hyped economies in the news but also those that have escaped limelight.
I will highly recommend this book to folks who love economics and want to better understand how countries undergo booms and busts over the decades of their growth.
September 14, 2020
This book is not about India, definitely, but you get to know more about India and the reasons that India has remained undeveloped despite all claims, manifestos and election promises. it clears many cobwebs and make you understand the conditions that have kept our country undeveloped and as the contemporary politics reveals, the state of lack of development will continue to exist for many years together.
If you want to understand India, its politics, its public policies, social condition, read this book. It is really very enlightening.
If you want to understand India, its politics, its public policies, social condition, read this book. It is really very enlightening.
October 31, 2020
If you have read Breakout Nations and The Rise and Fall of Nations, then this is the book for you. Ruchir Sharma turns concepts of economics and politics into a storytelling session. He has that innate ability to find the sweet spot between Politics, Geopolitics, Demography, Geography, Economics, Financial Markets and Money Matters to keep the reader engaged till they reach the end of the book. Highly recommended for policy makers, financial and market experts, economists and academicians in equal measure.
December 11, 2020
10 Rules is quite a disappointment since Ruchir Sharma usually writes brilliantly entertaining books with information you wouldn't come across elsewhere. The book which is fairly small-sized almost reads like a text book for policy makers. Also, on the negative side, it's quite a slog for such a small book. But it does throw up some valid and original points, so it's a read for those interested in policy and economics. Nonetheless, expect to be disappointed.
April 26, 2022
I can not remember exactly why I bought this book and I started to read it without any particular motivation. Although, it was a pleasant surprise. In a more and more complicated word, Sharma explains in a straightforward manner a lot of issues related not only about nations successful, but also about economics, businesses and so on. It can not be the most brilliant or breakthrough book I read, but it is for sure a good choice and a worthwhile lecture.
January 24, 2024
Great introduction to factors that can influence a country's economic success. It can be a little difficult to fully understand some details without any background knowledge in economics, but it is definitely doable if you read it carefully and sometimes just take your time looking at the included graphs. Overall, a great book about complex economic topics without getting too technical for people not familiar with the subject!
October 31, 2020
Like always, Ruchir Sharma's deep insights into what makes nations succeed and the easy readability of his style of writing leaves you wanting more; but I was really disappointed to see very little of India in his book. I would have liked it if he had written more about the factors that will make India succeed (or not)!
March 30, 2021
A clear and concise summary of what nations need to do to be successful, including having a growing working-age population, making the most of their location (trading well locally, globally, and within the country), controlling inflation, and not succumbing to hype. A good way to brush up on economic theory, whether you agree with all the ideas or not.
September 4, 2021
some good points, but a weak effort at providing a clearer picture of a really complex issue, with lots of preconceived ideas which can easily be challenged.
the worst part is calling success stories miracles and believing they're non-repeatable. dude anyone who reads your book is looking to formulate these miracles, not the supposedly natural rate of the mean.
the worst part is calling success stories miracles and believing they're non-repeatable. dude anyone who reads your book is looking to formulate these miracles, not the supposedly natural rate of the mean.
February 1, 2022
Decent book.
Economics is never an exact science, which means any advice dispensed may or may not work. However the author is an investor and therefore unlike his academic counterpart, he is likely to have more skin in the game.
10 rules is simplified, easy to understand and could be a simple reference guide on the future of any economy.
Economics is never an exact science, which means any advice dispensed may or may not work. However the author is an investor and therefore unlike his academic counterpart, he is likely to have more skin in the game.
10 rules is simplified, easy to understand and could be a simple reference guide on the future of any economy.
July 21, 2024
Highly recommended for macroeconomists, strategists, or anyone seeking a deeper understanding of global economics and politics. Each rule is well thought out, clearly explained, and supported by real-life examples, improving the depth of the book. I also enjoyed Sharma's writing style - easy to read and stimulating further discussions and thoughts.
May 13, 2021
Insightfull.
Good and relevant when sticking close to data, with some novel metrics.
Light cold data in some chapters (especially the one on Hypes) lost me a bit in the end.
Will include some parts of his framework(s) in my own analysis going fwd.
Good and relevant when sticking close to data, with some novel metrics.
Light cold data in some chapters (especially the one on Hypes) lost me a bit in the end.
Will include some parts of his framework(s) in my own analysis going fwd.
January 25, 2022
Amazing! If you have a little interest in macroeconomic indicators, this book is just for you!
The author endeavours to purvey a rational understanding on the 10 rules through short stories plus facts. Loved it!
The author endeavours to purvey a rational understanding on the 10 rules through short stories plus facts. Loved it!
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