全球化的裂解與再融合：中國模式與西方模式誰將勝出？: he Future of Globalization Fission vs. Fusion

by 朱雲漢

全球化已到盡頭？區域強權將再主導世界？民粹主義盛行的當下，人類文明將何去何從？

 

當前的全球政治經濟格局，正處於新舊秩序交替的黎明破曉時分。

舊的觀念、規範與體制，正出現運作失靈與不勝負荷的疲乏凋零跡象；

新的思維、秩序與模式正處於激盪、探索與醞釀階段，尚未破繭而出。

全球經濟與人類社會正面臨五個巨大的不確定性：

第一、全球化的前景高度不確定。第二、二戰後西方主導的國際經濟秩序之前景高度不確定。第三、中美關係前景高度不確定。第四、中國在建構後西方世界秩序中的角色與擔當，也存在高度不確定。第五、對於人類社會如何駕馭科技革命的巨大潛力充滿不確定性。

 

全球化的下一步是邁向滅亡，還是能進化成不同樣貌？

曾經輝煌的西方模式，面對強勢崛起的中國模式，究竟該如何應對？

中央研究院暨世界科學院院士朱雲漢，

繼二Ｏ一五年《亞洲週刊》年度十大好書《高思在雲》之後，

再次提醒所有讀者：全球化的裂解危在旦夕，國際秩序與人類命運將岌岌可危，

唯有徹底理解美中關係與

189 pages, Kindle Edition

Published January 21, 2020

About the author

台灣政治學學者、台大教授、中研院政治學研究所特聘研究員。

民國45年出生於台北市，畢業於國立台大政治系，並獲得台大政治學碩士、美國明尼蘇達大學政治學博士。自民國87年起任教台大政治系，曾擔任美國哥倫比亞大學政治系客座副教授。他曾三度獲國科會傑出研究獎，並曾擔任國科會人文處政治學門計畫審議人以及諮議委員。

主要研究領域為民主化、東亞政治經濟以及國際政治經濟學。他領導的「亞洲民主動態調查」跨國團隊，長期在亞洲十九個國家進行政治價值、政治參與與民主品質等議題的調查研究。

Reviews

[Mu-tien Chiou · Rating 2 out of 5]

The book mainly does only thing (rightfully): pointing out the bankruptcy of the self-righteous "Western model" aka. the "exploitative neoliberal American hegemony" under the veneer of global developer .
My issues with the thesis construction are twofold. Both of them have to do with the floating standards Dr. Chu holds.

First, while disparaging the Western model, the author totally neglects (or purposefully erases) the inner tensions between two main streams of American foreign policy- broadly understood as interventionism and isolationism. The fact that the USA is a democracy of two party system means that the tensions are inherent and will always be there. Historically the two parties all had changed their guiding foreign policy principle in relation to interventionism and isolationism, so we cannot say the ideology is partisan-bound, either.

Chu has not fairly and critically examined this complexity. Sometimes in this book he blames the Trump administration for singlehandedly sabotaging the global system- as an isolationist regime the way he would call it, obviously; but at other places he switches to say the American-led global order is an exploitative interventionist one (then isn’t the rest of the world better off if the US pulled out?).

The problem is: both interventionism and isolationism have done both good and bad to the global society and the developing world. Neither of them has just one-sidedly benefitted the USA to the sheer sabotage of others' development, as Chu seems to suggest throughout his discussion of the Western model.

Neither has he put in historical perspective the advantages of "Pax Americana" against previous hegemonies/ transcontinental suppliers of order and global goods, which renders his critique of the Western model very idealistic and airy.

In the second half of the book, Chu praises the (largely unrealized) potentials of the "China model" as the preferred alternative to what he thinks is a broken “Western model.”

So now it is as if after lashing out the "Western model" being sub-utopian, he is actually suggesting an answer: China, totally brushing aside its brutal suppression of minority/peripheral voices within, and its unruly power projections unto its adjacent states with-out. Given these human right and international law concerns, any observer should at least be suspicious of the "genuineness" of Beijing's purported willingness to give out global goods to weaker powers in the spirit of global solidarity.

Unfortunately, Chu provides no caution in his prediction and appears to be too sanguine about the significance of China's rising to the global community. It troubles someone like me who is cultured in Chinese thoughts and history all the more, because neither the ethnic Han's dynastic past nor the PRC's communist present particularly supports Chu's assumption of China's ascendance being ideologically benign and "xeno-friendly" (禮儀之邦 is just an utopia politically invented in the Confucian fashion).

And we haven't yet talked about specifics of intellectual property thefts, forced technology transfers, sea water disputes, etc.- the sort of things Beijing has done over the years to "undo" the existing rule-based international order. No, Chu did not really "analyze" China in this book. This book largely praises China's present and future prospects in the tone of People's Daily & Global Times- both CCP mouthpieces in case you don't know it already.

I am fine with people praising China on its own right and its merit, but this book arguably displays the worse kind of double standard I can tell by a scholar of Chu's caliber, well respected by many .

If you are an outsider in search for a fairer grasp of the strengths and ailments underlying China's unprecedented ascendancy, I recommend David P. Goldman’s "You Will Be Assimilated: China’s Plan to Sino-form the World (Bombardier, 2020). It is of the same batch of "China watch" books published around mid-2020, a tricky publication deadline when the authors would have to rely on foresight to call out a world system that can better withstand COVID- the oriental or the occidental? The Sino or the Americano?Goldman has made some audacious assumptions too but his “taking China seriously for all its worth” stance is nowhere nearing obsequious to either side.