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指數革命：巴菲特認證！未來真正能獲利的最佳投資法
艾利斯，耶魯大學校務基金的操盤人，曾經為耶魯大學校務基金賺進7倍之多的資產總額。為何退休後，卻振筆疾呼「主動式投資的時代已經過去，未來是指數型基金的時代」？
書中，艾利斯爬梳自己，從一個成功的主動式投資操盤手，轉為指數化投資支持者的歷史脈絡，解釋為什麼主動式投資不再有效，以及指出投資指數的十大優勢與必要性，來說明未來投資指數型基金才是最明智的選擇：
利用大量新數據證明，主動式投資的優勢已經過去。
指數化投資，不只能節省運營成本與稅務，還能穩定獲得更高的報酬。
★為什麼未來要投資指數型基金？
艾利斯認為，主動式投資是「輸家的遊戲」，在現今資訊流通發達的時代裡，每個基金經理人或操盤手已經不再擁有資訊搶先的優勢，找出被錯誤定價的股票，賺取價差。現在，能做的就是，看誰先出錯（買錯賣錯），從他人的錯誤中取勝，然而，市場上充斥98%的專職投資人，他們個個是絕頂聰明、手握同樣資訊的菁英，在此情況之下，要取得戰勝市場的績效，又要長期維持成功，簡直難如登天，那未來的投資應該走向何方？艾利斯指明了一條路線，就是指數化投資。
★什麼是指數化投資？
指數化投資，最著名的例子就是，巴菲特的百萬美元挑戰。在2008年時，股神巴菲特對眾多基金經理人下戰帖表示，他願以10年為期，用指數投資（投資標準普爾指數）與主動式投資（選股投資）的經理人比操作績效。10年過去，2018年10月，與巴菲特對賭的基金經理人泰德．塞德斯（Ted Seides），眼見無法獲勝，便提早認輸，結束這場長達10年的比賽。巴菲特以10年的賭注，證實指數化投資能為投資人帶來更好的投報率。
★有哪些名人贊同指數化投資？
不只股神巴菲特，《漫步華爾街》的作者墨基爾，《快思慢想》的作者丹尼爾．康納曼、耶魯大學投資長大衛．史文森，以及領航投資創辦人約翰．柏格，都同意大多數投資人應該投資指數型基金。
★如何開始指數化投資？
1. 選一家券商或銀行開戶
2. 購買指數型基金或ETF
3. 做適當資產配置
4. 以10年為期持續投資
一場指數化投資的革命已經展開，這場投資革命最終的勝利，必定是屬於選定方向的人。
對了，艾利斯最後提醒我們：永遠不要做任何你不打算至少持續十年的事情，因為在長期持續的情況下，指數化投資效果最好！
書中，艾利斯爬梳自己，從一個成功的主動式投資操盤手，轉為指數化投資支持者的歷史脈絡，解釋為什麼主動式投資不再有效，以及指出投資指數的十大優勢與必要性，來說明未來投資指數型基金才是最明智的選擇：
利用大量新數據證明，主動式投資的優勢已經過去。
指數化投資，不只能節省運營成本與稅務，還能穩定獲得更高的報酬。
★為什麼未來要投資指數型基金？
艾利斯認為，主動式投資是「輸家的遊戲」，在現今資訊流通發達的時代裡，每個基金經理人或操盤手已經不再擁有資訊搶先的優勢，找出被錯誤定價的股票，賺取價差。現在，能做的就是，看誰先出錯（買錯賣錯），從他人的錯誤中取勝，然而，市場上充斥98%的專職投資人，他們個個是絕頂聰明、手握同樣資訊的菁英，在此情況之下，要取得戰勝市場的績效，又要長期維持成功，簡直難如登天，那未來的投資應該走向何方？艾利斯指明了一條路線，就是指數化投資。
★什麼是指數化投資？
指數化投資，最著名的例子就是，巴菲特的百萬美元挑戰。在2008年時，股神巴菲特對眾多基金經理人下戰帖表示，他願以10年為期，用指數投資（投資標準普爾指數）與主動式投資（選股投資）的經理人比操作績效。10年過去，2018年10月，與巴菲特對賭的基金經理人泰德．塞德斯（Ted Seides），眼見無法獲勝，便提早認輸，結束這場長達10年的比賽。巴菲特以10年的賭注，證實指數化投資能為投資人帶來更好的投報率。
★有哪些名人贊同指數化投資？
不只股神巴菲特，《漫步華爾街》的作者墨基爾，《快思慢想》的作者丹尼爾．康納曼、耶魯大學投資長大衛．史文森，以及領航投資創辦人約翰．柏格，都同意大多數投資人應該投資指數型基金。
★如何開始指數化投資？
1. 選一家券商或銀行開戶
2. 購買指數型基金或ETF
3. 做適當資產配置
4. 以10年為期持續投資
一場指數化投資的革命已經展開，這場投資革命最終的勝利，必定是屬於選定方向的人。
對了，艾利斯最後提醒我們：永遠不要做任何你不打算至少持續十年的事情，因為在長期持續的情況下，指數化投資效果最好！
- GenresFinanceNonfiction
288 pages, Paperback
Published May 29, 2019
28 people are currently reading
262 people want to read
About the author
Charles D. Ellis
102 books86 followersCharles “Charley” D. Ellis is an American investment consultant. In 1972, Ellis founded Greenwich Associates, an international strategy consulting firm focused on financial institutions. Ellis is known for his philosophy of passive investing through index funds, as detailed in his book Winning the Loser’s Game.
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Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews
May 26, 2017
I was a bit misguided when I first picked up the book as I thought it was about something about indexes, like CPI or other economic measures. Then I proceeded after I noticed it is fore-worded by G. Burton Malkiel, who is the author of the famous book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street". As a proponent of random walk theory--which simply put is that no one can beat the market as the market itself is random; and anyone who had some good performance over the last 5-10 years is majorly because of luck, not by their excellence in peeking into the future. -- it is undoubtedly that Mr. Malkeil would stand for what this book is for.
The author has been in the investing advisory and consulting business since late 60's, and he argued that while active investing did bring the value in the past, it is no longer the norm as market become more efficient, and any marginal performance would be canceled out given the 1-2% percent fee. In a nutshell, the past success of active investing has become its biggest enemy. In addition, with today's technology democratization, a retail investor can easily build his/her own portfolio in pursuit of risk diversification.
One of the classic phrases in the book are that: "Investors should focus on the policy, which is the long term goal and big picture, and mind less about the operation. "
It is worth noted that the author himself sits in Yale's endowment fund investing committee, which has been one of the largest investors and adaptors in index funds. Mr. Malkiel is also a partner of Wealthfront, an online investing tool with focus on index fund and ETF investment.
The author has been in the investing advisory and consulting business since late 60's, and he argued that while active investing did bring the value in the past, it is no longer the norm as market become more efficient, and any marginal performance would be canceled out given the 1-2% percent fee. In a nutshell, the past success of active investing has become its biggest enemy. In addition, with today's technology democratization, a retail investor can easily build his/her own portfolio in pursuit of risk diversification.
One of the classic phrases in the book are that: "Investors should focus on the policy, which is the long term goal and big picture, and mind less about the operation. "
It is worth noted that the author himself sits in Yale's endowment fund investing committee, which has been one of the largest investors and adaptors in index funds. Mr. Malkiel is also a partner of Wealthfront, an online investing tool with focus on index fund and ETF investment.
July 18, 2022
As a market practitioner since 1960s, the author experienced the golden days of active management fund. He viewed the equity market has been evolving from semi-efficient to almost completely efficient and transparent market. Thus, the room for alpha return diminishes dramatically, demonstrating the Markowitz’s Morden Portfolio Theory.
The author positioned market return, beta, is what anyone and everyone can attain because any marginal return of “alpha” cannot be justified with the excessive marginal cost of investment.
I wish the author can discuss more about the formation of market return. This book assumes market return is the index return which is probably the weakest assumption in this book. More Fintech evolves to explore the “smart beta” index fund, composing or re-weighing the index to optimise the index return. It will be great if Charles can shred light on his view of how close index fund is from the the real market portfolio.
The author positioned market return, beta, is what anyone and everyone can attain because any marginal return of “alpha” cannot be justified with the excessive marginal cost of investment.
I wish the author can discuss more about the formation of market return. This book assumes market return is the index return which is probably the weakest assumption in this book. More Fintech evolves to explore the “smart beta” index fund, composing or re-weighing the index to optimise the index return. It will be great if Charles can shred light on his view of how close index fund is from the the real market portfolio.
This entire review has been hidden because of spoilers.
August 13, 2018
"Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict don't have knowledge."--Lao Tzu
Active managers argue that the more you index, the market becomes less efficient. They would have you believe that there are only a few stocks that will do well. This book is an easy ready that concisely provides evidence against active management and for an index-based approach that is low cost, tax-efficient and in most cases does better than active management. Some people will say that indexing means accepting mediocrity, but the results show your returns are better than active. You are seeking the best return in a tax and cost efficient way, and it frees up time to focus on goal-based financial planning.
Active managers argue that the more you index, the market becomes less efficient. They would have you believe that there are only a few stocks that will do well. This book is an easy ready that concisely provides evidence against active management and for an index-based approach that is low cost, tax-efficient and in most cases does better than active management. Some people will say that indexing means accepting mediocrity, but the results show your returns are better than active. You are seeking the best return in a tax and cost efficient way, and it frees up time to focus on goal-based financial planning.
April 12, 2021
This was a decent book about indexing. I hadn't read any of the books from Ellis but was introduced to him in his book Elements of Investing with Burton Malkiel. The first half of this book is sort of a memoir of Ellis' journey through becoming an investor and learning why index funds are so beneficial. The second half is some short chapters on the benefits of index investing. As someone who reads a ton of books on this subject, there wasn't a lot of new value, but it was still worth the read as a reminder of the basics.
October 30, 2017
Highly recommended. Charles Ellis makes a strong and logical case for an easy investment approach for reaching your retirement goals. Every American worker and retirement saver could benefit from reading one of his books.
July 9, 2023
I'm reading this book right after reading John Bogle's "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" and while it is not as in depth, Ellis' book makes it easy to understand why Indexing matters, especially for beginners.
March 8, 2024
Mirarse solo la segunda parte del libro. La segunda parte del libro te dice los motivos por los que invertir en fondos indexados.
Este libro es un complemento perfecto a el otro libro que me he leído sobre fondos indexados, llamado “ The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”
Este libro es un complemento perfecto a el otro libro que me he leído sobre fondos indexados, llamado “ The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”
January 16, 2020
Usually have a positive bias for investment books but this was a disappointment. Nothing new for ample index touting business books.
October 15, 2023
指數化投資可以讓你空出更多時間去做更重要的事
February 22, 2017
Full discloser: I work for "Active" investment manager and my whole career relies on success of active managers.
To start I'm a firm believer in active management even though I hate those MFS advertisements that proclaim "Active Management"
This book and many other Vanguard devotees talk about virtues of indexing and how it is superior to active management over long periods of time. And that most investors would be better off indexing. It all makes sense until it doesn't.
There is false pretense that indexing will always do good no matter what in years to come to infinity. It's like Gary Cohns analogy about fiduciary rule - govt is saying all retirement plan participants should only eat healthy stuff and not indulge in more tasty and sugary stuff.
The basic premise of the book is wrong. It says markets are efficient its difficult to beat the market. And because there are so many active talent r managers are out there that they are eating each other's lunch causing the market to efficient.
Markets are not always efficient, and that's the whole business to figure that out. The race is not to beat the market but achieve risk adjusted superior returns. Market has 100% beta risk with active management one can minimize max draw down, reduce volatility and achieve much better risk adjusted results.
All comparisons are over 10 or 20 years, while it's useful but it's usually covers many business cycles and secular changes. Realistically people don't keep their active managers over that long period of time. Rarely some still do if they keep generating good returns and believe in the managers skills and philosophy.
Here are my two cents -
Tax Efficiency - it forgets about what you can with tax loss harvesting and tax efficient active investing.
Opportunistic - it doesn't talk about how opportunistic active investing can be and how it can enhance overall return when used in diversified asset allocations. Again the premise is no one can predict Mr. Market - but the game is not prediction, it's thorough research and calculated bets based on publicly available information and personal judgement.
Trading Costs - lot of big active funds participate in IPO flips to off set trading costs or use REPOs to generate additional income.
Manager flipping costs - book says it always costly mistake to switch managers and that you always end up selling low and buying high. It's not always true. I personally been watching CalPERS gain after switching their managers.
On positive note, I learnt few historical facts I didn't know - how in old days fees were 6% of the dividend income earned or how it was based on hourly fees just like lawyers etc. even before and how we came out % of assets as fees.
Try again next time please I'm not convinced.
To start I'm a firm believer in active management even though I hate those MFS advertisements that proclaim "Active Management"
This book and many other Vanguard devotees talk about virtues of indexing and how it is superior to active management over long periods of time. And that most investors would be better off indexing. It all makes sense until it doesn't.
There is false pretense that indexing will always do good no matter what in years to come to infinity. It's like Gary Cohns analogy about fiduciary rule - govt is saying all retirement plan participants should only eat healthy stuff and not indulge in more tasty and sugary stuff.
The basic premise of the book is wrong. It says markets are efficient its difficult to beat the market. And because there are so many active talent r managers are out there that they are eating each other's lunch causing the market to efficient.
Markets are not always efficient, and that's the whole business to figure that out. The race is not to beat the market but achieve risk adjusted superior returns. Market has 100% beta risk with active management one can minimize max draw down, reduce volatility and achieve much better risk adjusted results.
All comparisons are over 10 or 20 years, while it's useful but it's usually covers many business cycles and secular changes. Realistically people don't keep their active managers over that long period of time. Rarely some still do if they keep generating good returns and believe in the managers skills and philosophy.
Here are my two cents -
Tax Efficiency - it forgets about what you can with tax loss harvesting and tax efficient active investing.
Opportunistic - it doesn't talk about how opportunistic active investing can be and how it can enhance overall return when used in diversified asset allocations. Again the premise is no one can predict Mr. Market - but the game is not prediction, it's thorough research and calculated bets based on publicly available information and personal judgement.
Trading Costs - lot of big active funds participate in IPO flips to off set trading costs or use REPOs to generate additional income.
Manager flipping costs - book says it always costly mistake to switch managers and that you always end up selling low and buying high. It's not always true. I personally been watching CalPERS gain after switching their managers.
On positive note, I learnt few historical facts I didn't know - how in old days fees were 6% of the dividend income earned or how it was based on hourly fees just like lawyers etc. even before and how we came out % of assets as fees.
Try again next time please I'm not convinced.
November 28, 2016
It ain't bad, but it ain't much. It's a slight (less than 180 pages of text, not including appendixes), and not very groundbreaking. If you've read anything about index mutual funds before, then you'll know what this is going to say in advance. There are some interesting bits about how the investment profession has changed over the decades (making it harder for active investors to beat the market), and on the author's personal life experiences, but mostly it's just a rehash of decades-old arguments on behalf of index funds.
November 10, 2017
I did not learn much more than I already knew about index investing. Ellis other book on What It Takes on 7 firms a much more convincing read.
Displaying 1 - 12 of 12 reviews