Apocalypse How?: Technology and the Threat of Disaster

by Oliver Letwin

As the world becomes better connected and we grow ever more dependent on technology, the risks to our infrastructure are multiplying. Whether it's a hostile state striking the national grid (like Russia did with Ukraine in 2016) or a freak solar storm, our systems have become so interlinked that if one part goes down the rest topple like dominoes.

In this groundbreaking book, former government minister Oliver Letwin looks ten years into the future and imagines a UK in which the national grid has collapsed. Reliant on the internet, automated electric cars, voice-over IP, GPS, and the internet of things, law and order would disintegrate. Taking us from high-level government meetings to elderly citizens waiting in vain for their carers, this book is a wake up call for why we should question our unshakeable faith in technology. But it's much more than that: Letwin uses his vast experience in government to outline how businesses and government should respond to catastrophic black swan events that seem distant and implausible - until they occur.

Genres: Nonfiction, Technology, Society, Politics

256 pages, Hardcover

Published March 5, 2020

Reviews

[Adam Salisbury · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book has a silly title but was actually much better than I thought it would be. This book is not about the apocalypse; it's about the very real threat of catastrophic network collapse. In a nutshell: the world has become exponentially more connected in the last few decades and is likely to become even more so, as the economy becomes cashless & new technologies like 6G & driverless vehicles cars come into being. Driving this trend is the paradoxical fact that what makes a network fragile also makes it powerful: having everyone hooked up to the same network makes the whole thing more efficient.

Having everything reliant on a centralised system (e.g. The power grid, the internet) means that, if this system were to fail, the results would be catastrophic. Letwin does a good job outlining the dire straits we would be in: not quite apocalyptic, but catastrophic in the sense of hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of pounds lost. He does this by interweaving a fictional narrative into alternate chapters: it's all a bit British and twee (involving him driving down to Yeovil to rescue his dear old mother in law), but I think it does a good job in highlighting the realism of some of the scenarios he describes.

One complaint I have is his eagerness to dismiss cost benefit analysis as a useful tool in assessing the desirability of analogue based 'fall-back' systems. He dismisses CBA because i) assessing the likelihood of network collapse is too hard ii) assessing its impact is too hard and iii) compound discounting reduces the present-value of long-term benefits to practically nil. Fair enough for i) and ii) - but the same could be said for any 'black swan' type event (e.g. Pandemic, catastrophic climate change) and, to a lesser extent, even for the most mundane CBA like whether or not to build a bridge. I think its worthwhile attempting to estimate i) and ii), provided its done with a healthy acknowledgement of the uncertainty inherent in such a calculation. For iii), most of the problems can be resolved by selecting a lower discount rate (Letwin chooses a stupidly high 12%, which all but truncates any benefits beyond 30 years). This could be done by i) not tying the discount rate to the market interest rate (dumb idea in this case) and not incorporating a pure time preference (almost always a dumb idea).

[Bint Laden · Rating 2 out of 5]

This is, essentially, an interesting and largely worthwhile essay stretched into a book. As a result, it makes a few good points but then repeats them, over and over again, until the reader feels hammered by the same ideas. And it omits one aspect, which is critical to the overall argument, to which I’ll return.
As I’ve waded through all 256 pages of this book, I’ll summarise its argument, so you don’t have to.
1. We live in an increasingly connected world, reliant on many networks (electricity, mobile phones, transport etc.)
2. Those networks are interconnected, and increasingly so, as a result of which if network A fails – say power – it can also knock out network B – say mobile phones and so on
3. We are particularly reliant on electricity and more and more so.
4. All of this creates obvious vulnerability to a low probability but high impact network failure
5. There is no point in pretending we can unwind or row back from out interconnected, multi network and digital world – it’s too late, and too negative for economic health etc
6. Therefore, we must prepare by creating ‘fall back’ analogue options to keep us going for a few days in such an event and this requires a degree of global co-operation because networks span geographies
7. Err … that’s it. That is the entire book summarised in just a few words, while Letwin waffles on and repeats the points ad nauseum over more than 250 pages
And the omission? Any reference to what we, as individuals could and should be doing to bolster resilience against a short-term network failure. It’s all fairly obvious: store some water and enough food for a few days; stash some cash, so when the payment network stops, you can buy things; have some means of cooking and keeping warm which is not reliant on the gas and electricity networks; have a torch and batteries and some candles and matches; have a wireless radio; have one or more power banks charged to keep digital devices going … etc. Basically, think ahead and have some contingency plans for the unexpected. Reading about how people in Spain and Portugal struggled recently because they had no cash to manage for even one day without the power networks brings it home.
But this long, repetitive and rather boring book won’t help, other than to make people think and then to be used to light a fire. Unless, you have the digital version, when even this is not an option.

[Lewis Birchon · Rating 4 out of 5]

A strange but compelling book exploring why governments and organisations underestimate low-probability-high-impact events. Half of the book explores the practicalities and politics of these risks, and how the urgent issue of the day distracts from the potentially important issue of the future. The other half models a fictional scenario in the near future to illustrate what inaction now might look like.

Letwin does a good job of breaking down the different political arguments for action and inaction, with a few stepped examples for how to look at probability and when to ignore cost-benefit analysis. There are some elaborately described metaphors, intended to provide an accessible visualisation of a concept, that really would have benefited from an illustration or two. The fictional scenario is compelling, effective, and efficient at the cost of artistic flourish. Exposition Basil would be proud.

It’s fitting this was published during a global pandemic, and on the one hand it’s nice that the fictional scenario that leads to an apocalyptic failure of modern technology… but on the other hand I googled the Carrington Event and… yikes.

[Philip William · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author is better placed to write this book than almost anyone else on the planet. For six years he was member of the UK National Security Council as the minister responsible for UK's national resilience.

The book intertwines two stories
1. a parable taking the form of a semi-apocalyptic Carrington event which causes all electricity and the internet in the UK (and other countries) to fail for up to 5 days and
2. A commentary on that parable and similar events
This former MP shows us why not enough will be done to prevent such an event, what should be done and argues that the West might be better able to cope than more totalitarian countries.

If you are interested in such planning at a very high level (Member of Parliament) this might be a useful starter. If you are further down the pecking order then there is not much of use (buy a log fire at least as a back up)

If you are aware of Carrington events you might recognise that they are almost inevitable at some point. The book tells us that the Governments contingency planning will be poor to very poor.

[Humphrey Hawksley · Rating 5 out of 5]

Apocalypse How is a brilliant and chilling analysis of Britain’s lack preparation for crises. It gives deep insights into how government operates and why, when a crisis strikes, the chances are we will be caught off guard.
Having worked at the highest levels of the Conservative government Letwin knows his stuff. “In any country, it is incredibly difficult to raise sustained interest… about risks that are far off,” he explains. Yet, as technology makes us more and more reliant on electronic and the electrical grid, the risk of a disastrous meltdown increases. Letwin cleverly juxtaposes a future fictional scenario written as a thriller with his own analysis of the challenges and how they would be handled. Whether a flood, a pandemic or a blackout, this should be required reading for anyone intersted in keeping their family safe from sudden disaster.

[Lee · Rating 3 out of 5]

Part fictional future disaster scenario, part essay on the vulnerability of modern (and future) society to the total failure of interconnected networks.
The UK - or at least the south of England - suffers a total power and internet failure due - it is surmised - to a coroneal mass ejection (CME). This is in the future where most if not all cars are electric, and all communications is dependant on internet based protocols. Therefore, COBR is operating in the dark, and dependent on the limited backup capability retained by the military.
The essay part tells of the potential dangers of ignoring the unglamorous need to factor in resilience into any future changes to national infrastructure.
I found the book worked best with the fictional part, and too many loose ends exist there... the essay part of the book became overwhelming after a while.

[Ozymandias · Rating 2 out of 5]

I didn't hear a realistic problem nor a coherent solution. Analgoue systems only get you so far and the potential issues mentioned will unlikely be resolved by having a few spare radios.

A very pro-government book. The core thesis is "cuts to public spending are terrible and if we only had more money allotted to the government - the UK would be a tremendous country." The inefficiency of government and corruption are not mentioned.

EBI: Develop the argument better by talking about actual technologies that are vulnerable to this potential threat and go in-depth with the technical analysis.

[Scott MacDonald · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thought provoking. I would have preferred more of the parable and less analytical argument.

[Denis]

Very interesting reading with the recent/ current experience of COVID pandemic.

[B · Rating 3 out of 5]

It was fine.

I was interested in learning about the issue, and definitely got a new awareness of how dangerous sudden blackouts can be, especially now that we're becoming more dependent on technology.

Unfortunately, the writing just isn't very good. The author is very long winded and has a tendency to reiterate himself... a lot.

There's also a reluctance to seriously critic the people and/or systems that have brought about this problem. Whatsmore, he doesn't offer any serious solutions. This left the book feeling a tad surface level, which is a shame because overall I think it was an interesting read.