The Upside of Down: How Chaos and Uncertainty Breed Opportunity in South Africa

by Bruce Whitfield

Next time you go to a conference or hire a consultant to be told, ‘We live in a VUCA [Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous] world,’ leave the room. You are wasting your time. In a world of fake news, deep-fakes, manipulated feeds of information and divisive social-media agendas, it’s easy to believe that our time is the most challenging in human history. It’s just not true. It is a time of extraordinary opportunity. But only if you have the right mindset. Fear of the future breeds inaction and leads to strategic paralysis. We put off decisions until we can have certainty. We look for signals. We wait. And while we do that, the world moves on around us. Problem-solvers thrive in chaotic and uncertain times because they act to change their future. Winners recognise that in a world of growing uncertainty, you need to resort to actions on things you can control. And the only things over which you have absolute control are your attitude and your mindset. These, in turn, determine the actions you will take and that will define your future. A robust mindset is the one common characteristic Bruce Whitfield has identified in two decades of interrogating how South Africa’s billionaires and start-up mavericks think differently. They are not naive Pollyannas. They don’t ignore risk or hope that problems will go away. They constantly measure, manage, consider and weigh up opportunities in a tumultuous sea of uncertainty and find ways around obstacles. If, as Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller suggests, the stories we tell affect economic outcomes, then we need to tell different stories amidst the noise and haste of a rapidly evolving world.

Genres: Nonfiction, Business, South Africa, Economics

244 pages, Paperback

Published April 1, 2020

Reviews

[Gillian Nicholson · Rating 3 out of 5]

An easy reading synopsis of money, politics, problems and promises in South Africa. 🇿🇦
Fascinating anecdotes about entrepreneurs and directors, listed companies and successes and failures in the business world.
Most interesting is that of the top 40 Shares listed in SA in 1990, only 3 remain in 2020. Mining and resources minimized. Constant change.
Bruce Whitfield is an esteemed broadcaster who has effortlessly morphed into a credible author. A noteworthy commentator of our time.
All South Africans should read this book.

[Bajith Panday · Rating 4 out of 5]

Numbers don't lie

It's the kind of book that you have to read again because there's so much information to take in. At some point you wonder if there is an upside. It comes in the form of the great entrepreneurs such as Ackerman , Basson and Rupert etc who undoubtedly prevailed. Is there an upside for the majority? It's certainly not in the numbers Bruce quotes and not enough rags to riches examples to give genuine hope in a sinking economy. You have to be a socialist with a conscience to enjoy this book which I am.

[Rolland Simpi Motaung · Rating 3 out of 5]

South Africa is a country of paradoxes and depending on which side of the glass -of-water debate you find yourself, one is either an optimist, pessimist or opportunist. True to their nature, entrepreneurs spot opportunities in a chaotic context and develop strategies to offer sustainable solutions. The multi-award winning business journalist, Bruce Whitfield has penned a book showcasing those kinds of opportunists who bravely chase the pot of gold at the end of the post-1994-rainbow. Although written before the rise of the Covid 19 pandemic globally, the author’s stance on seeing problems as an opportunity rather than as an obstacle is still relevant.

The upside of this easy-read book is that it offers a good macro-environmental analysis of South Africa. It explores great case studies of home brewed companies like SAB, Naspers and MTN that were able to have foresight to capture opportunities in the uncertain period in South Africa in the 1990s. The author also gives a good evaluation on the state of public education and on how some private-education businesses are closing the gaps by offering alternative quality and enriching education. Case studies of tech-based businesses solving local problems such as SweepSouth are also explored to give inspiration of the potential of how technology can transform businesses and create a feasible platform for employment creation

The author argues that manufacturing and agriculture could be some of the industries that can create massive employment thus leading to much needed economic growth; however, the author falls short of offering practical proposals on how the country can exploit opportunities from these industries. For other sources of future growth, the author fails to offer broader ideas on how the public and private sector can better arm more disadvantaged youth and women with entrepreneurial skills, business support and market access. Additionally, there is a big emphasis on the usual big businesses and entrepreneurs available in public domain; however there is less showcasing of the many hard working black African businesses, entrepreneurs and business leaders who have made significant impact in their respective communities and contributed in the growth of the economy.

Despite a reader being left despondent at times due to the reminder of our country’s problems overall this is a fair contribution to business literature to inspire a level of optimism. As we adjust to this “new normal” due to the pandemic, Bruce Whitfield has opened a discussion on what the public and private sector could do to sustainably grow the country through essentially a change in perspective. The book particularly challenges entrepreneurs to see the future differently by observing their environments a bit deeper to spot problems and develop sustainable solutions for current and future generations

Rolland Simpi Motaung 2020 ©

[Binesh G · Rating 5 out of 5]

Bruce Whitfield as always gives his optimistic but realistic view of our past, current situation and future possible solutions for this great country South Africa.

[Kananelo Sebati · Rating 4 out of 5]

As I finished this book, I thought to myself this book might not age well. Not because the points made in the book aren't valid, but because the country and the world changed fundamentally at the time the book was published. Bruce Whitfield has a great talent for making complex topics understandable for those who are not financially inclined and this book is no different. I enjoyed it and I am reminded that South Africans have survived crises before and we will do it again, provided we do it together and think of innovative ways to create jobs.

[Matthew Shaw · Rating 4 out of 5]

Wonderful quick read highlighting some of the amazing work that South Africans are doing in a tough environment. Addresses the real issues the country faces, with a refreshing perspective.

[Satish Antony · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bruce emphatically clarifies that chaos is an environment that creates opportunity. By using the growth stories of a number of South Africa's largest companies, he paints a picture that not all is doom and gloom in the South African economy.
It's a feel good book that tries to peel back the impact of "recency bias" on the South African psyche.
4/5 stars

[Khanya Cakata · Rating 4 out of 5]

If you want to take a snapshot of how the big South African corporates, Sasol, Santam, MTN etc, were founded and the vicissitudes of the South African economy, particularly from 1985 to present, I would recommend this book to you.

Whitfield is very knowledgeable about business because he has spent 20 years interviewing the top corporate executives and writing and speaking about big business in SA. What I found most striking is that itaken about 15 and sometimes as much as 20 or 30 years to establish a dominant and sustainable big business in South Africa. I can make mention here of Sasol, Shoprite, Pep and the like. It is also worth mentioning that South Africa’s apartheid past lended these business limited competition in which to grow almost unchallenged.
Understanding this backdrop is useful when you contrast that with the newer post 1994 established business such as Discovery, Aspen, and Capitec. What is key in these three examples is that they are all businesses that got established even in the middle of uncertainty in the economy in general and the banking, insurance and health industries, in particular.

I suspect, from my reading of this book, that there is (notwithstanding the capital flight and the push to invest “offshore”) a massive opportunity in business in South Africa. The allure of “diversification” away from the political and economic risk of South Africa has left companies like Woolworths, Old Mutual and Brait with bloody noses. In contrast South Africa focused businesses like Clicks, Capitec and Mr Price have delivered knockout results for their shareholders . Hint Hint, nudge nudge.

A useful book to have to understand the business and economic landscape of South Africa, and even get your mind working to open your eyes to the boundless opportunity this country has to offer.

[Sue · Rating 4 out of 5]

Had I not been given this book, I might never have encountered or read it, because finance/economics is not my field. I'm glad I did because I am now somewhat better informed and indeed should be. To start with, I took to heart Whitfield's description of SA as an unfair, rather than an unequal, society. Secondly, poverty, joblessness and hunger among the majority of our population, in tandem with the corruption and ineptness of our government, is an explosion waiting to happen. Just as I finished reading this book, civil unrest, looting and a 'failed insurrection' indeed took place (11/7/2021). This should not have surprised us in the slightest and I was left wondering what modifications the author might make should there be a second edition. But this is still an optimistic view of South Africa's current situation and its future and perhaps there's a more urgent need than before for it to be read. Apart from the chapters on currency and the JSE that did not interest me much, I enjoyed the many anecdotes from corporate boardrooms and SA's success stories. Bruce Whitfield's written style matches that of his role as radio journalist, so there is a good pace and energy to his writing.

[Arne · Rating 3 out of 5]

I'm super biased but I loved how Bruce used SAB as an example of a world class South African operation. I also really enjoyed some of the stats that he used to shed light on the "it's not as bad as we think" message of the book.

I fully agree that Corporate South Africa has a massive responsibility to become a part of the positive future of the country and that the performance of local companies that have focused on investing in ZA have grown while there were some hard lessons for those companies that were looking to diversify elsewhere.

It did leave me a little meh though, doesn't feel like the full challenge of giving hope was met so that's why I'm rating it 3* rather than 4*.

[Richard Nefdt · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good research. Well referenced. Interesting perspective on opportunities

Good research.
Well referenced.
Interesting perspective on opportunities.
Some welcomed views on positive approach.
Worth the read.
Nice flow of content.

[Roger Weiss · Rating 5 out of 5]

Brutal yet optimistic review of South Africa

Loved this easy to read book.

Bruce has a gift of explaining things clearly, not mincing his words.

Thoroughly recommend that all South Africans read this.

[Rod MacPhail · Rating 5 out of 5]

A kernel of hope

Bruce Whitfield’s lively read is packed with useful stats and presents future in South Africa which, if grasped, could be pivotal to the reemergence of badly needed growth in the economy.

[Cherie Reynolds · Rating 3 out of 5]

What now Bruce Whitfield?? This was written before lockdown. Can the added chaos create more opportunity or more chaos?

[Monwabisi · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book is actually very patriotic.. Thank you Bruce.

[Magan Hanekom · Rating 4 out of 5]

Eye opener!

[Bukhosibenkosi Masango · Rating 5 out of 5]

Every Bruce Whitfield book is filled with fantastic depth of fact-based information, expert opinion and optimism in the face of everything going on in South Africa.

[Jason Smuts · Rating 5 out of 5]

A much needed moral boost! Excellent, pragmatic, and honest look at South Africa’s past and why there is much hope for the future IF we collectively work for it.