Apollo's Arrow: The Profound and Enduring Impact of Coronavirus on the Way We Live

by Nicholas A. Christakis

A piercing and scientifically grounded look at the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic and how it will change the way we live—"excellent and timely." ( The New Yorker )
 
Apollo's Arrow offers a riveting account of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic as it swept through American society in 2020, and of how the recovery will unfold in the coming years. Drawing on momentous (yet dimly remembered) historical epidemics, contemporary analyses, and cutting-edge research from a range of scientific disciplines, bestselling author, physician, sociologist, and public health expert Nicholas A. Christakis explores what it means to live in a time of plague—an experience that is paradoxically uncommon to the vast majority of humans who are alive, yet deeply fundamental to our species.

Unleashing new divisions in our society as well as opportunities for cooperation, this 21st-century pandemic has upended our lives in ways that will test, but not vanquish, our already frayed collective culture. Featuring new, provocative arguments and vivid examples ranging across medicine, history, sociology, epidemiology, data science, and genetics, Apollo's Arrow envisions what happens when the great force of a deadly germ meets the enduring reality of our evolved social nature.

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, History, Health, Sociology, Audiobook, Medicine

368 pages, Hardcover

First published October 27, 2020

About the author

Nicholas A. Christakis, MD, PhD, MPH, is the Sterling Professor of Social and Natural Science at Yale University, with appointments in the departments of Sociology, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Statistics and Data Science, Biomedical Engineering, and Medicine.

Previously, he conducted research and taught for many years at Harvard University and at the University of Chicago. He was on Time magazine's list of the 100 most influential people in the world in 2009. He worked as a hospice physician in underserved communities in Chicago and Boston until 2011.

Nowadays, he spends most of his time in the Human Nature Lab, where his team explores a broad set of ideas, including: understanding the evolutionary, genetic, and physiological bases of friendship; encouraging villages in the developing world to adopt new public health practices (working in locations in Honduras, India, and Uganda); mapping social networks in settings around the world; arranging people into online groups so that they behave better (such as being more cooperative and more truthful); developing artificial intelligence that helps humans address challenges in collective action; exploring the effect of social interactions on the human microbiome; and more. When he is not in the lab, he teaches at Yale University.

Christakis was elected a Fellow to the National Academy of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences in 2006, to the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 2010, and to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2017.

Reviews

[Ryan Boissonneault · Rating 5 out of 5]

The COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most important and disruptive global event—in terms of impact on health, the political economy, and culture—of the twenty-first century. Understanding the details and full complexity of the pandemic, therefore, is a necessity for understanding the current state of the US and the world.

Achieving this nuanced perspective is not easy, however, considering the amount of misinformation, disinformation, and superficial black-and-white thinking circulating the web. That’s why it’s beneficial to be able to get the full picture on the pandemic from a source that is actually qualified to discuss it.

In Apollo’s Arrow, Nicholas Christaskis, a physician and sociologist from Yale University that has been tracking the virus from the beginning, covers the pandemic from all angles, including the epidemiological characteristics of the virus, the history of pandemics, mitigation and treatment options, psychological impact and reactions (both positive and negative), sources of misinformation, political negligence and mishandling, the development of treatments and vaccines, and possible outcomes over the next few years.

Christakis is uniquely qualified to write this book; as a physician and sociologist, he is able to explain both the epidemiological characteristics of the virus (including containment and treatment protocols) as well as the psychological and social aspects of our various responses to the virus. While the pandemic has undoubtedly deepened political polarization and summoned our inner demons, it has also brought out our better angels as demonstrated through countless acts of altruism and charity.

The COVID-19 pandemic is therefore complex both biologically and socially; not only are we learning about this new virus on the fly, we are simultaneously dealing with its psychological, social, and economic ramifications, forcing us to confront difficult tradeoffs and ambiguities on a daily basis, which Christakis effectively communicates in a deep yet clearly written way.

You will learn, for example, that while the virus is not as deadly as we first assumed, it is significantly deadlier than the seasonal flu, in terms of its higher rates of mortality and community transmission and its more dangerous physiological effects on the respiratory system, captured in the greater number of deaths, in absolute terms, compared to the flu (30,000–60,000 flu-related deaths per year in the US versus 243,000 COVID-19 deaths as of 11/13/2020).

COVID-19 has proven difficult to contain because, in addition to its high rate of transmission, infected individuals can transmit COVID-19 asymptomatically (unlike SARS). This makes contact tracing nearly impossible and makes quarantining the infected far less effective (they’ve already spread the disease in an asymptomatic state). This is why non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as mask wearing, social distancing, and prohibiting large gatherings are necessary to slow the spread of the virus. (Christakis notes how mask wearing has been politicized, but, epidemiologically speaking, is a very uncontroversial and effective method of reducing community transmission rates.)

The reader may wonder what the point of reducing the transmission rate (“flattening the curve”) is if the virus will not stop spreading until we hit herd immunity, which occurs when a high enough percentage of the community is immune to the virus, making the spread of COVID-19 from person to person unlikely. As Christakis explains, adopting measures to flatten the curve prevents unnecessary or excess deaths by (1) preventing a large number of deaths from occurring over a short period of time and thus avoiding overwhelming our healthcare system, (2) buying time so that vaccines or better treatment options can be developed, and (3) allowing time for the virus to potentially mutate into a less lethal form. All three factors can potentially lower the total number of deaths.

An effective and safe vaccine is our best bet because it allows us to achieve herd immunity without hundreds of thousands of excess deaths, although, as Christakis points out, there is no guarantee that a vaccine will become available anytime soon, as the fastest vaccine to ever be developed was the mumps vaccine—and that took four years (although some promising vaccines are currently in trials).

There is of course the question of whether or not closing down the economy is worth the lives it will save, but the evidence seems to suggest that even if a country chooses to remain open, as Sweden did, the economy will still suffer as people refuse to go out—leaving you with a depressed economy AND a higher death count. Even Sweden—the only Nordic country not to implement widespread lockdown—has since reversed its course after experiencing higher infection rates and deaths, as Christakis points out.

The reader of course can decide for themselves how to evaluate the tradeoffs, and must confront difficult questions such as whether or not a mass lockdown is justified, whether a vaccine will actually become available in time, how much personal risk they are willing to bear, and how their own personal and political biases might be affecting their own judgment. But if you take anything away from the book, it should be (1) the pandemic is complex and these are not easy questions, (2) trust the science and credible sources and argue with facts, not conspiracy theories, and (3) our ability to bind together to fight the virus as a common enemy—and stop fighting each other—is the key to keeping the virus in check and preventing excess deaths (by following long established NPIs, not as a political badge of honor, but as scientifically-grounded measures of containment).

[Morgan Blackledge · Rating 5 out of 5]

Speed is everything.

Quality is everything else.

This silicon valley truism is bearing fruit in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wether we’re talking about vaccines, public policies or even basically reliable information.

We need fast, accurate and efficacious.

I worked in film and television for 10 years before becoming a therapist.

A somewhat counterintuitive, but actually awesome preparation for working with the mentally ill and addicted in a state of perpetual emergency and managed multi-scenario disaster.

Film production crews make full catastrophe living look like a surgical science.

As the old cliché goes: the show must go on, and by god, it really does. But not by accident or Ethel Merman’s brassy brand of moxie alone.

It happens because an army of highly trained, skilled really intelligent individuals (all the smart people are behind the camera) work ridiculously hard.

Film production crews (by and large) convert chaos into gold, and transform some of humanities least attractive personality traits into (occasionally) beautiful art via 1. organization, 2. precise communication, 3. elaborate contingency planning, 4. highly structured chain of command, 5. tons and tons of money, and lastly 6. expert improvisation (when all else fails).

In the film industry we had a similar (as above) catch phrase.

(1) fast, (2) cheap, (3) good:

You can only have 2 out of 3, so choose wisely.

In terms of good orderly data (GOD) regarding the COVID-19. We desperately need all 3 right now.

And author Nicholas Christakis largely delivers that with Apollo’s Arrow, a concise, high quality distillation of pertinent insights from the humanities, history, virology, medicine, network and systems theory and the social sciences, that is (for now) up to the minute, and strangely entertaining.

At this point, we’re a year into this, so it may not seem like this book happened fast, but considering the quality of data (and crucially, the lack of bad data) the level of insight, the high use value and page turning goodness, it’s impressively timely.

Why, it’s as if Christakis has spent a lifetime studying public health from an interdisciplinary (bio-psycho-social) perspective.

And he has, so....

This is kind of his moment.

And as they say also say in the film industry “the harder you work the luckier (in this case - the better i.e more skillful) you get”.

Christakis’s lifetime of hard work (including his production and research team) means you (dear reader) can get this incredibly good, and very timely information at a relative pittance of a cash, time and energy investment.

Apollo’s Arrow is a data-vaccine, delivered just in time, to all of us who have been treading water in the postulant sewer of misinformation otherwise known as 2020.

Give your self this intellectual firmware upgrade, and be a contagious communicator of clarity (if you will please pardon the alteration).

Viruses + Ignorance = Death 💀

Here’s the good accessible, authoritative, fair and unbiased source of information we all need.

Bullseye 🎯

Five Stars ⭐️ (x5)

[Mansoor · Rating 1 out of 5]

از دید ساده‌انگارانه‌ و سیاه‌وسفیدیِ نویسنده دو راه بیشتر برای مواجهه با پندمیک اخیر نیست: یا تعطیلی کامل و یا ادامه دادن به زندگی نرمال انگار که اتفاقی نیفتاده. نویسنده آلترناتیوهای دیگر را کلا ندیده می‌گیرد از جمله اعلامیه‌ی برینگتن که به دست سه اپیدمیولوژیست و متخصص سلامت عمومی در دانشگاه‌های استنفورد، آکسفورد و هاروارد نوشته شده و به امضای بیشتر از سیزده هزار نفر دانشمند پزشکی و سلامت عمومی رسیده و در مخالفت با مداخله‌ها در شکل تعطیلی، تاکیدش بر مراقبت متمرکز از افراد آسیب‌پذیر و اجازه دادن به دیگران است تا در عین مراعات موارد بهداشتی، مثل رعایت فاصله و شستن دستها، به زندگی معمولشان ادامه دهند. نویسنده با توجیه محافظت از سلامت عموم مردم، از سیاست تعطیلی مدارس دفاع می‌کند و این وسط پژوهش‌‌های متعددی را در آمریکا و اروپا که نشان می‌دهند مدارس منبع عمده‌ای برای انتقال به شمار نمی‌روند، نادیده می‌گیرد؛ بگذریم از هزینه‌های سنگینی که این سیاست بر آموزش و سلامت روان بچه‌ها و همینطور اقتصاد کشور بار می‌کند

[Shaun Deane · Rating 2 out of 5]

Well written, researched and produced but not much to learn if you follow the news, daily - a few suggestions and a tick box confirmation that "I haven't missed anything." The subtitle does not hold up -very little insight about the "profound," long-lasting impact for the future. Suppose that can be surmised.

[Garret Macko · Rating 4 out of 5]

"I should read that" remarks (11/19):
Listened to this author speak during a PBS NewsHour interview—brilliant insights.

Review (12/19):
As I noted at the offset of this book, I learned of it after hearing its author, Nicholas Christakas, give an interview on PBS NewsHour. My first thought was: wow, it’s October and the pandemic only really hit the states (initiate mental math) 7 months ago. Isn’t it a little bit early for a book on COVID-19 to be published? Surely, if anything, it must be rushed, no? And so admittedly, to this point, one of the reasons that I chose to read Apollo’s Arrow was out of sheer curiosity for whether a book like this could even come together in such a short period of time. And I’m glad to say I was pleasantly surprised on this front—I suppose he might have had a bit of a head start given his curricula vitae. But I think the book came together in full, cohesive form quite nicely. You can tell that it was written and published within the time frame that it was, but in many ways this lends itself to the authenticity of the reading experience. In this respect, it contains a sort of coronavirus zeitgeist—an artifact that will, I suspect, present value even after our current research and understanding of the pandemic has been outgrown and replaced. This distillation of mood so importantly contrasts that of the Trumpian, anti-science sect of our society. On that note, Christakas does an excellent job of rerouting some pandemic-related discussions away from politics, a course that it has unfortunately taken many times over the past couple of months and at the cost of countless lives. I think it goes without saying that it would be unwise and perhaps impossible to completely divorce a matter of public health from politics, but it does speak to the idea that there are certain causes that should inspire us to drop our pitchforks and torches (if you’re somewhere that is experiencing a drought, please properly extinguish your torch before dropping it) and focus on what really matters, to remember that we’re all on the same side here. Again, lots of great information presented, not just of the COVID-19 pandemic but of other pandemics throughout human history; once more a study of the past can help us better understand the present and, maybe, just maybe, the future. Did you know that prior to Spanish Flu outbreak, many restaurants had spittoons at their entrances? Neither did I until reading this book. Then, in the midst of the outbreak, someone was like, “Hey, I’m going out on a limb here but is it possible these spittoons are unsanitary and contributing to the spread of the virus?” And then someone, likely a genius, replied, “Yeah, you’re probably right. We should get rid of those things.” And so spittoons were no more—and thank goodness for that.

Apollo’s Arrow is well worth taking a look at. I think it will serve as an excellent touchstone for the innumerable books that are surely to come on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Also, Mr. Christakas, if you’re reading this: HOW LONG UNTIL I REGAIN MY SENSE OF TASTE AND SMELL?

[Atila Iamarino · Rating 5 out of 5]

Nicholas Christakis se formou em biologia, é médico e doutor em sociologia. ou seja, ele tem uma das combinações mais interessantes de habilidades para analisar a pandemia, como o faz neste livro. O que faz do Apollo's Arrow um ótimo panorama do que passamos durante 2020, com resgates de momentos importantes do passado e panoramas futuros bastante realistas. O livro vai da epidemiologia do vírus aos fatores sociais que ditam a pandemia com muita fluência.

Uma das discussões que ele faz no livro, que teria muito valor se fosse levada a sério aqui no Brasil, é a noção de que para a grande maioria das doenças infecciosas, as vacinas só apareceram depois dos piores momentos. E que muito do que diminuiu o impacto dessas doenças foi o desenvolvimento socioeconômico e a saúde pública. Fortalecer o sistema de saúde agora ajuda a diminuir o impacto da COVID e doenças futuras. Ao mesmo tempo, isso mostra como estamos em um momento único da história humana, onde conseguimos desenvolver vacinas eficazes enquanto a pandemia ainda está acontecendo.

[Elaine · Rating 4 out of 5]

The downside of bringing out a book mid-Pandemic is that it’s bound to be dated by the time of publication. And much of what Christakis recounts will be familiar to those (like me) who have been obsessively following the science and policy of COVID-19 since the beginning of the year. That said, Christakis is a remarkably clear writer, and the book is entirely accessible to any reader - no scientific knowledge necessary. The breadth of knowledge he brings to bear from different disciplines also enriches the book. In sum, a good clear summary of where we've been lately, and where we (might) be going.

[Moritz Mueller-Freitag · Rating 2 out of 5]

Nicholas Christakis is a physician and sociologist at Yale University who is known for his research in the areas of social networks and biosocial science. He is one of several authors who provides us with a book about the impact of Covid-19 while we’re still in the throes of the pandemic. In a little over 300 pages, he sweeps across a wide variety of topics, explaining the nature of the virus and the disease it causes. He also compares the Covid-19 outbreak to other major pandemics in history.

Although the book is well written and scientifically thorough, I found it very programmatic and a little dull at times. There are few novel insights or “aha moments” for anyone who’s been following the news closely this year. In addition, the book is more descriptive than analytical and shies away from making any groundbreaking predictions. Having followed the author’s exceptional Twitter feed since February, I expected this book to be more insightful.

My primary takeaway from reading Apollo’s Arrow is that a weekly podcast might be a better medium to disseminate scientific knowledge in an ongoing pandemic. A good example from Germany is Das Coronavirus-Update, a wildly successful podcast with virologist Christian Drosten who developed the world’s first diagnostic test for SARS-1 and SARS-2. It might well be impossible to write a conclusive book about the coronavirus pandemic while it’s still a moving target.

[🥀 Rose 🥀 · Rating 5 out of 5]

In times of great uncertainty, I typically run to experts to learn as much as a I can. Here it is about the effects of a pandemic and how they work, the effects on society, our health long term and our future post COVID.

In some regards I feel better knowing we will get there, however it was distressing to learn that it could take until 2024 rather than just a few months especially now that there is a vaccine. Learning that societies behaved very much the same in past plagues as today and that people don’t really change and no we have not become more ignorant, we just haven’t grown. There were snake oil remedies in the Middle Ages and there is still today only on a much larger scale. The misinformation and disinformation has grown into a giant cluster fuck and has cost lives. Because we have social media and the internet at large, there is no stopping the disasters and it’s effects of peoples choices and behaviors.

The author addresses the perfect storm of civil unrest, misinformation and pandemic being politicized to create a horror show that was 2020. We can rest assure that this will pass as it has done in the past and we will get through it but accepting the realities is a tough pill to swallow.

Lots of information in this book that I found relevant and extremely interesting on many levels. Thank goodness for science and all it does for us.

[Bryan Alexander · Rating 4 out of 5]

A solid history of COVID-19, this should be a reliable account for years to come.

Christakis explains the biology and epidemiology clearly. He begins by introducing coronaviruses and how they work, using the history of SARS (or SARS-1) to good effect in setting up COVID-19 (or SARS-2). He also explores the human and social elements, teasing out how our response to the pandemic is divisive and destructive, as well as based on caring, mutual aid, and remarkable innovation.

One point I wanted to share: most people aren't seeing the real impact of the disease on human bodies. Deaths and long haul suffering are literally invisible, not being depicted. This helps some people downplay the reality of COVID's devastation (204).

Another: Christakis is even handed in apportioning blame. He definitely attacks Trump for delaying and lying, not to mention sapping CDC responses. He also steadily criticizes the Chinese government for lying, covering up, and being foolishly vindictive against health professionals. American states and politicians come in for some blame as well.

Recommended if you need a thoughtful, book length account of the pandemic.

[Rennie · Rating 4 out of 5]

“But blind hope is a fickle companion for our woe. It is not enough. Still, by forcing our gaze to the future, hope can serve another purpose: it can motivate us to prepare.

Microbes have shaped our evolutionary trajectory since the origin of our species. Epidemics have done so for many thousands of years. Like the myth of Apollo’s arrows, they have been a part of our story all along. We have outlived them before, using the biological and social tools at our disposal. Life will return to normal. Plagues always end. And, like plagues, hope is an enduring part of the human condition.”

[Dramatika · Rating 3 out of 5]

Didn’t learn anything new from this, an ok summary of the latest pandemic focusing on US. Sweden did the best but the author too stubborn to accept this. The second wave proves that there is very little one can do apart from going to live in bunker. And what is this life for?

[Matthew Jordan · Rating 4 out of 5]

COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in March 2020. Nicholas Christakis published this book in October. May we all aspire to that level of productivity. And y'know what? He did a freaking phenomenal job.

This is the first time I've ever read a book about a historic event while that event was taking place. It almost felt like an exercise in mindfulness. Instead of just passing each day experiencing the pandemic, Apollo's Arrow forced me to actually focus and take stock of the moment I was living in. I feel like it would be as though you were a random person reading a book about World War II in, like, 1943—you would have this feeling of "oh snap, I am reading a history book about my everyday existence....weird." There's gotta be a German word for it or something.

Either way, I had two broad thoughts while reading. First: I knew nothing about pandemics 1.5 years ago, and second: it's so much easier to learn about stuff once it's already happened. Let me elaborate:

1) In March of 2020, I did not know anything about epidemiology, virology, vaccine production, supply chains, recessions, the stock market, small business tax structure, misinformation, historic pandemics, and ICU wards, to name a few. I continue to know next-to-nothing about all of those things, but I've certainly learned a TON over the last year. It wasn't even on purpose. But through conversations, Twitter scrolling, and lots of Googling to the tune of "HOW THE HECK DO THEY PRODUCE RNA STRANDS IN A LAB", I definitely feel I got a crash courses in Pandemics 1A03.

I guess the take-home message is that, since pandemics affect all aspects of life, they are an opportunity to learn a great deal about virtually everything about how our society works. It also makes me feel like our entire elementary and high school education should focus way, way more on history. War, plague, international unrest—these are not relics of the past; if anything, they are the default state of human society. School should spend less time focusing on the dates historic events took place, and more time equipping us for when they recur.

2) When you're in the middle of a tumultuous event, whether a pandemic, recession, war, or indeed personal crisis, it's very hard to know what is worth paying attention to and how to react on the day-to-day. But when we step back and look at events through a historian's lens, we can see things far more clearly, learn important lessons, and focus on what actually ended up mattering (as opposed to the panic, fear, misinformation, and anxiety of the day-to-day).

I would even say that, given the right resources, *you can understand historical events better than the people who were actually there*. The people who participated in the War of 1812, the first Moon Landing, or the 2008 Financial crises were filled with adrenaline, confusion, and hype. They were too busy experiencing it to truly *get* it.

I don't even know if that makes sense. Let me come at it from a different angle. In psychology there's the distinction between the "experiencing self" and the "remembering self". I guess I'm arguing that this concept extends to broad historical events, too, and that the people in charge of constructing the "remembering self" (i.e. historians) have access to way more resources than the people experiencing those events. As an experiencer, all you have is your own life and resources. As a rememberer, you have the written records (diaries, letters) of everyone experiencing the event, along with news reports, scientific studies, declassified archival information and so much more.

In summary: I'm not entirely sure Apollo's Arrow is a phenomenal book, but the circumstances of its publication were unique and thought-provoking. (The only thing that doesn't hold up in May 2021 is that Nicholas Christakis was too pessimistic about when we'd get vaccines.) If you're looking to contextualize the historic year we all just lived through, I would really recommend reading it.

[Julia · Rating 2 out of 5]

This was a thorough and well-researched look at COVID-19, including comparisons to previous pandemics. I think I picked up this book hoping for answers of some kind – what I wanted, I couldn't tell you, but on that front it obviously could not deliver.

[Shari Suarez · Rating 4 out of 5]

It might seem strange to read about Covid-19 when we're in the throes of the pandemic but this book takes a look at many aspects of the virus without panic. There is urgency, of course but no panic.
The author, physician, researcher and public health expert, covers the origins of the virus, what we can do to mitigate it, the politicizing of the virus and how this will change our society.
It was written for the layperson as the science is described so that anyone even those without a science background can understand.

[Maher Razouk · Rating 5 out of 5]

يعتبر غسل اليدين مصدر قلق خاص لأن عاداتنا الاجتماعية في المصافحة توفر طريقة لانتشار المرض. في حين كان من الصعب على العديد من الأمريكيين تبني بعض التغييرات الوبائية في نمط الحياة ، اختفت هذه العادة القديمة المتمثلة في الوصول إلى يد الشخص بين عشية وضحاها في وقت مبكر من الوباء ، حتى قبل أن يبدأ الناس في الابتعاد مسافة ستة أقدام. سارع المسؤولون إلى الاعتراف بأهمية التخلي عن المصافحة. أعلن الدكتور فوسي أن أمريكا ما بعد الوباء ستتضمن "غسل اليدين القهري" و "إنهاء المصافحة".
وصف الدكتور جريجوري بولاند ، مدير مجموعة أبحاث اللقاحات في Mayo Clinic ، المصافحة بأنها "عادة قديمة" وأشار إلى أن "العديد من الثقافات تعلمت أنه يمكنها تحية بعضها البعض دون لمس".

في حين أن أصول المصافحة غير واضحة ، كانت التحية موجودة منذ آلاف السنين. يعتقد البعض أن تشابك الأيدي اليمنى الفارغة ، عبّر في الأصل عن نية سلمية أو يرمز إلى قسم مقدس وأن حركة الاهتزاز أثبتت أن كلا الطرفين لم يكن لديه أسلحة مخبأة تحت سواعدهما.
مهما كان الأصل ، فإن الممارسة قديمة. تم تصوير إحدى أقدم المصافحات المسجلة في نقش حجري يعود للقرن التاسع قبل الميلاد يظهر فيه ملك آشور (شلمنصر الثالث) وهو يسلم على حاكم بابلي. تظهر إشارات المصافحة في جميع أنحاء الفن والأدب القديم ، من ملاحم هوميروس إلى النقوش على العملات المعدنية الرومانية.

قد يكون التقليد متجذرًا أيضًا في التطور البشري ، ويلعب دورًا في الإشارات الكيميائية الاجتماعية. كما لاحظ أحد المحققين ، فإن "أخذ العينات البشرية العلنية عبر حاسة الشم والتحقيق في الأفراد غير المألوفين هو إلى حد كبير من المحرمات" - مما يعني أن الناس لا يقتربون صراحة من الغرباء ويستنشقونهم. لكن قد تكون المصافحة آلية لأخذ عينات من روائح الآخرين. تدعم هذه الاحتمالية التجارب التي تُظهر أن الناس يشمون أيديهم اليمنى أكثر بعد مصافحة شخص غريب من جنسهم ، كما لو كانوا يقيمونهم.
.
Nicholas A. Christakis
Apollo's Arrow
Translated By #Maher_Razouk

[Thanawat · Rating 4 out of 5]

ใช้ได้เลย
หนังสือเล่มนี้ให้ข้อมูลและมุมมองครอบคลุม 3 เรื่องหลักๆ

1.
กล่าวถึงที่มาที่ไป และ impact ของ Covid 19 แบบที่เข้าใจได้ไม่ยาก
เล่าถึง natural history ของการเกิด pandemic ผสมกับประวัติศาสตร์ของโรคระบาดครั้งใหญ่ๆ
ซึ่งถ้าใครที่ติดตามเรื่องนี้ covid อยู่ ก็จะสามารถอ่านผ่านได้อย่างรวดเร็ว

2.
กล่าวถึงผลกระทบต่อโลกในด้านที่ก่อให้เกิดความเสียหาย ทั้งปัจเจกและภาพรวม ซึ่งชอบ part นี้มาก เพราะมันครบถ้วน ครอบคลุมด้านที่เป็นมนุษย์ได้ดีจริงๆ
แน่นอนว่าจะต้องมีการสอดแทรกความผิดพลาดในการตัดสินใจของ Donald Trump เอาไว้ไม่ให้โลกลืม

3.
มองถึง solution ที่จะออกจาก covid 19 pandemic ทั้งด้านวิทยาศาสตร์การแพทย์ และ non pharmaceutical approach ซึ่งก็เขียนได้ดีทีเดียว (ตอนที่หนังสือเล่มนี้ออกมา เหล่า vaccine และยาทั้งหลายแหล่ ยังไม่ได้ถูก launch ออกมามากนัก)

ถือว่าเป็นหนังสือ covid ที่มีแนว approach ตามกระแสหลัก
จุดเด่นคือความเข้าใจในการเล่าประวัติที่มาที่ไป และการกล่าวถึงผลกระทบของ covid ได้ดี
แม้จะมีความอ่อน (ที่หลีกเลี่ยงไม่ได้) ที่ข้อมูลจะไม่ up to date ก็ถือว่าไม่ใช่ปัญหาหลัก
สามารถอ่านได้ในฐานะหนังสือ pop-sci ที่บันทึกเหตุการณ์โรคระบาดครั้งประวัติศาสตร์ได้ดี

[Dan Graser · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a hugely informative and sobering recap of our relationship with SARS-CoV-2, its origins, basic pathology, and its place among the many pandemics and plagues the human species has faced and chronicled, prepared in erudite and witty fashion by Yale Professor Nicholas Christakis. As we now, at least as of late 2020, are looking toward to prospect of at least one if not two viable vaccines to be distributed in spring of 2021, it is not time to allow any sort of "COVID fatigue" but rather to encourage looking back on where we went wrong and where many others got it right.

Of course this amounts to hindsight and of course there is always something more that could have been done, however, the ridiculously stupid politicization of preventative measures recommended by our own government agencies is the chief legacy of ignorance left by the outgoing administration. However, as noted, this is hardly the first time that denialism and shifting of blame has been a feature of our reactions to such circumstances as this quote from J. Bertrand's, "A Historical Relation of the Plague at Marseille in the Year 1720," illustrates:
"Already the public, prone to delude themselves, and easy to believe what they wish to be true, attributed the malady of these persons to anything rather than to the plague, and began even to joke upon their own alarms. But the subtle destroyer, mocking alike the precautions of the wise and the jokes of the incredulous was secretly insinuating itself far and wide."

Given the less than cheery metaphor that forms the title of the work - hearkening back to the poison arrows that were shot by the god Apollo down to the marauding Greeks at the walls of Troy - the impression of this work is informative but as mentioned earlier, quite sobering. The same trends of ignorance, denialism, and fear have persisted no matter how advanced our civilization has become. The achievements in the area of vaccination are incredible and the scientific community has much to be proud for here, however societally speaking we are still just as ignorant as our ancestors were millenia ago in spite of our incredible abilities to share information and pool resources instantly. We are bound to the same primitive and unlettered responses, especially if encouraged to be divided in these response by vacuous leadership. I would love to think that perhaps people in positions of power will learn - from this international pandemic and from works like this - at least a few lessons that might make the inevitable next public health crisis less of a crisis, however the pandemic/plague history as well as the recap of this most incredibly stupid year shown hear by Christakis indicates, that is unlikely.

[Diana · Rating 4 out of 5]

Really good analysis of the time we’re living in and its consequences for the future. It will need to be continually updated with new editions as the pandemic evolves, but it’s worth a read at this moment (Dec 2020).

[Max Stone · Rating 4 out of 5]

I'm not sure the audience for this book, which is about covid and seems from the examples given to have been finished being written in late July. Reading a book in November 2020 about covid written in July 2020? Not enough time had passed since covid appeared to have space and perspective on it. And it was already outdated the moment it came out, as the covid pandemic, and the cultural and social reactions to covid, and the scientific understanding of covid, have continued on since then. And written by a fellow that seems to have more than a full time job battling covid. I couldn't imagine someone picking this up who wasn't really interested in reading about covid, and I couldn't imagine what a person like that would learn that they didn't already know from living through it and reading about it for the last 9 months.

All that said, I liked the author's Blueprint a lot, and I was attracted to the subtitle that he would be saying interesting things about the enduring and ongoing impact of covid which he thought would continue as the disease faded.

It turns out to be better and worse than I thought. The first 80% of the book is about how the covid pandemic evolved, how people reacted to it, and how that compares with past pandemics, including a fair bit of history about past pandemics (although obviously not in as much detail as e.g. The Great Influenza by John Barry), and that part of the book was all a fair amount more interesting and more informative than I expected. Not that I learned many new facts about covid itself, but it put a lot of things in perspective, and was well told. I'm not sure how the author managed to write something that good in such a short time! Still, while better than I expected, it definitely suffered from "what did it describe about covid itself that I didn't already know from the news".

The last 20% actually got around to the "enduring impact" speculations promised in the subtitle, and that wasn't as interesting as I hoped. Partly I think that it showed the age of speculations made in July. And mostly I thought those speculations were not that interesting (e.g. more working from home) or a bit panglossian. I didn't think they were bad guesses for a person guessing about the lasting impact of a pandemic, 4 months into the pandemic (measuring from when it started having a big impact internationally), but still, not as interesting as I hoped.

4 stars because it was well written and I'm impressed by the feat of getting out something this coherant that fast. But still, not exactly sure who the expected audience is.

[Lissa00 · Rating 4 out of 5]

I have to admit that I was very nervous about reading this book. First of all, it seems a little too soon to have a book published about Covid-19 and secondly, I am dealing with some fragile emotions involved with sending my kids back to school so I wasn't sure this book would be necessarily soothing. Fortunately, this wasn't an entirely gloom and doom book about the current pandemic. Instead it looked at the origins of the virus (which is helpful, since it seems like it started decades ago) and at past pandemics for comparison. It also discusses infection rates, different treatment trials, vaccine opportunities and how it may end. After reading this book, written by a physician and public health expert, I feel like I have a better understanding of Covid-19 and how this may all play out in the end and how to face it until it does end. I received a digital ARC through NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.

[Paul Gill · Rating 2 out of 5]

Highly misleading title. Any reasonably informed individual experiencing the Covid-19 pandemic in real time will get little out of the first 6 of 8 chapters. The last 2 are what I bought the book for. A better editor would have reversed the focus and requested 2 chapters summing up the last 12 months and the other 6 exploring different ways the pandemic will alter our lives.

[Alexandros Potapidis · Rating 3 out of 5]

Here is the thing about the Coronavirus and its impact on our world; it is destructive, but it also offers promises of creativity and re-thinking of the old; it is deadly, but not near as deadly as some past pandemics (and it has also saved many lives); it spreads fear and misery, but it also offers hope, generosity, and a better version of our world. Our generation is experiencing a grave and difficult period, caused by the decease of COVID-19 that originated by the virus of SARS-2. However, even this gloom situation offers some silver linings that transcend the superficial dichotomy of the partisan politics and the vaccine nationalism.

Christakis’ book is great in so many ways because of his background as a physician and a sociologist. He writes with the authority of someone who has a first hand knowledge of the medical intricacies of SARS-2 but also offers his expertise in unravelling our social world, shaped by COVID-19. This is how the book is structured, too. The first half is all about statistics, comparisons, and medical diagnosis between Coronavirus and past pathogens that shaped pandemics and epidemics, such as SARS-1, the Spanish flu, influenza, bubonic plague, etc. In the second, and more interesting, part of the book Christakis explores the social aspects of the pandemic and how human emotions were driven by a tiny pathogen in order to create new social structures and norms.

Some interesting facts I learned reading this book:
Pathogens evolve to be less deadly because from a Darwinian perspective it is not in their interest to kill their host, but to keep them alive in order to spread (p. 72). This allows us to be optimistic about our chances of surviving this pandemic and learn to coexist with SARS-2.
Coronavirus took innumerable lives, but it also saved some. There were decreased motor-vehicle fatalities, fewer deaths due to complications from noncritical medical procedures, fewer babies were born prematurely, and fewer people lost their lives to respiratory conditions (p. 75).
Bubonic Plague (or Black Death) killed between 30 to 50% of the total European population in only 4 year (p. 82). The word quarantine comes from the latin quaranta, which means forty and has religious associations as it signifies purification. In the 15th century Italian city of Venice it was the recommended time of quarantine for those who had contracted a disease.
Americans (along with Germans) are bad hand-washers and this is not because of lack of knowledge (p. 253-4). Talking about knowledge, Americans have also a very low basic scientific understanding of the world. For example, over 25% of Americans believe that the sun revolves around the Earth (p. 290).
The blent of cultural origins, meanings, and biological imperatives of a handshake. It was a gesture of being empty handed (and therefore weaponless), but also a mechanism to sample the odours of other people (p. 254-5).

Christakis demonstrates that a pandemic can re-define the norms, such as the creation of a shared identity fuelled by a catastrophe, it can stretch our emotions to the limits, especially the sense of fear, blame, and the desire for control, and it can exacerbate the already dominant socio-economic inequalities. Most importantly, Christakis illustrated that this pandemic is not only a medical predicament, which will sooner or later come to an end, but it also has a social end that is harder to predict. What everyone wants to know is how pandemics end. Apollo’s Arrow offers a historical and medical certainty; “we will reach herd immunity, or the pathogen will evolve to be less lethal, or (after a very long time) humans will evolve to be resistant” (p. 315).

One aspect of all this change in our lives that isn’t addressed in the book, is the very notion of change. We humans are creatures of order, stability, and routine, allergic to change and to any re-definition of the way we lead our lives. This conservatism is a prominent feature of our social structures. As a society we are risk averse and this had profound implications when we were pushed to change our understanding of what is normal. Change was the single most important feature of the Coronavirus pandemic. Another criticism of the book is its US-centric focus. The presentation of statistics, data, anecdotal stories, news, and political developments was taken overwhelmingly from the American experience and, sadly, did not offer a global insight. Offering a more global picture would have enriched the book and would have made my rating more generous.

[Daniel · Rating 4 out of 5]

Upfront: This was a solid, and surprisingly long book on the COVID-19 pandemic (that we are still enduring, as of the time I'm writing this review).

This book is not just an extended news article that merely coalesces the events of the last few months into the book, it actually has a thesis, namely: "pandemics have always been with us, and it's our turn to rise to the occasion."

The book starts with histories of pandemics both similar, such as the case of SARS 1, and dissimilar, like Swine Flu. It also takes a retrospective on the 1918 Swine Flu and how it shaped our modern world. I was surprised to learn the Swine Flu caused more deaths than World War I, but American schools tend to focus lessons on the latter rather than the former. I'd also like to commend Prof. Christakis for keeping the book relatively apolitical, that is not to say that the book shies away from lambasting where appropriate, but it doesn't have a 'blue tribe' or 'red tribe' agenda. The book is also hopeful in its citation of survey data that shows Americans are actually generous and willing to go above and beyond to protect their neighbors, contrary to the "you're on your own" attitudes we might presume. In this way, the book is also an appeal to the "better angels of our nature." The book concludes with how pandemics have ended in the past, some becoming endemic in a population as we evolve and adapt, and others being completely eradicated through pharmaceutical intervention.

As others have said, it is incredible how quickly a book of this size and rigor was written. However, there are a few criticisms I would level (from most important to least). One caveat is that if you have been obsessively reading the news, you will likely have already come across a significant fraction of the information in this book. I wouldn't say: "drop everything and read this now" to someone who has been glued to their newsfeed for the past several months; some of the chapters can seem tedious to get through if you've heard it all before. The second minor problem is that because this book was released pre-vaccine, one of the largest turns in the history of this pandemic is not captured in the pages. But this book should be judged on the information known at the time, and should not be discarded for this secondary reason. Lastly, this book is written in the voice of Prof. Christakis, so some of the examples of how citizens are adapting to the virus are specific to his communities of Vermont and Yale University and may not generalize well to a nationwide or global audience.

As Prof. Christakis has said elsewhere, we are not at the beginning of the end of this pandemic, we are at the end of the beginning. It's hard to know if this book will hold up over time, it's certainly not the last word on this pandemic, and how could it be? There is a certain value in capturing the Zeitgeist while we are in the thick of it, before it fades into yet another paragraph in our immunology textbooks.

[Scriptor Ignotus · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book has two components. First, it provides a consolidated account of the early stages of the Covid-19 Pandemic, tracing the development of the virus from its "jump" from bats to humans in late 2019 to the peak of what will probably be remembered as the "first wave" of the pandemic in the summer of 2020. Secondly, it situates Covid within a broader historical and epidemiological context, comparing the current pandemic to some of the other large outbreaks that have occurred in the last century, like the 1918 "Spanish Flu" and the largely-forgotten 1957 influenza pandemic.

The narrative portion contains little information that will be new to anyone who has been following the news over the last year; and since most of the book appears to have been written during the summer, and Covid is still a rapidly developing global event that is likely in its early stages, it already feels a bit out of date.

The usefulness of the book lies primarily in its explanation of the efficacy of various treatment and mitigation measures, its clear contextualization of how dangerous the Covid-19 outbreak is compared to other historical pandemics (spoiler: It's pretty bad, because it inhabits a sweet spot of lethality and transmissibility, but not quite as bad as the Spanish Flu and a hell of a lot better than the Plague), and in the wisdom and perspective it provides: even though the lifestyle changes we've all had to make have been stressful and surreal, neither pandemics nor the measures we take to combat them have been foreign to the history of our species.

[Gavin D'Souza · Rating 4 out of 5]

A book that’s insightful and could perhaps not be any more relevant, Apollo’s Arrow ensures that you, the reader, sees a comprehensive picture of epidemics. Kudos to Christakis for this!

Understanding the past and predicting the future is a classic human trait, and this book celebrates us simply being human and doing what we’re best at - being human.

The research is interesting - though largely exclusive to the USA - and shows the brave failures and gracefully silent victories of the healthcare sector.

A book that must be read simply because you need to know it to deal with it.

[Garrett · Rating 5 out of 5]

This could not be more thoughtful, prescient, and not just exhaustively researched, but witnessed and well-stated. A useful book for not only putting the pandemic in some kind of perspective, but also for handling what can be handled while talking about the future in realistic, supportable terms framed by history. An essential book for those whose moods benefit from being more informed.

[Konstantinos Kalampokis · Rating 4 out of 5]

For a book that refers to Covid-19 and was published in August 2020, its really impressive how thorough and extensive work has been done in it.
Recommended to anyone that wants to learn more about Covid and pandemics in general.

[Carolyn Harris · Rating 4 out of 5]

An excellent book that places the covid19 pandemic in historical context, discusses the efforts to develop a vaccine and analyzes how society may change in the years following the pandemic. Just as the spittoon disappeared after the Spanish flu, the handshake may disappear after covid19. There is some fascinating discussion of epidemics that were well known in their own time, such as the Russian flu of the 1890s (which may have been a coronavirus), but are little known today. The author focuses on the American experience of covid19 and it would have been interesting to read more comparative analysis of how different countries have responded to the pandemic. A timely read.

[Elena Calistru · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excelentă, printre cele mai bune cărți de știință accesibile.