You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake: How Biases Distort Decision-Making and What You Can Do to Fight Them

by Olivier Sibony

Discover nine common business decision-making traps -- and learn practical tools for avoiding them -- in this "masterful," research-based guide from a professor of strategic thinking. (Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow)We all make decisions all the time. It's so natural that we hardly stop to think about it. Yet even the smartest and most experienced among us make frequent and predictable errors. So, what makes a good decision? Should we trust our intuitions, and if so, when? How can we avoid being tripped up by cognitive biases when we are not even aware of them?In You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake!, strategy professor and management consultant Olivier Sibony draws on dozens of fascinating and engaging case studies to show how cognitive biases routinely lead all of us -- including even the most renowned business titans -- into nine common decision-making traps. But instead of rehashing the same old "debiasing" techniques that fail managers time and again, Sibony explains that the best way to avoid the pitfalls of cognitive bias is to craft an effective decision-making architecture in your organization -- a system of techniques and processes that leverage collective intelligence to help leaders make the best decisions possible -- and provides 40 concrete methods for doing so.Distinctive in the clarity and practicality of its message, You're About to Make a Terrible Mistake! distills the latest developments in behavioral economics and cognitive psychology into actionable tools for making smart, effective decisions in business and beyond."Succinct, accurate, and even-handed. I loved it!" (Angela Duckworth, bestselling author of Grit) "The best, funniest, most useful guide to cognitive bias in business. If you make decisions, you need to read this book." (Safi Bahcall, bestselling author of Loonshots)

Genres: Nonfiction, Psychology, Business, Self Help, Leadership, Audiobook, Personal Growth

337 pages, Kindle Edition

First published January 1, 2019

About the author

Olivier Sibony is a professor, author and advisor specializing in the quality of strategic thinking and the design of decision processes.

Olivier is Professor of Strategy at HEC Paris. He is also an Associate Fellow of Saïd Business School in Oxford University, and has taught at London Business School, Ecole Polytechnique, ENA, IE Madrid, and other institutions. Previously, he spent 25 years with McKinsey & Company in France and in the U.S., where he was a Senior Partner. There, he was, at various times, a leader of the Global Strategy Practice and of the Consumer Goods & Retail Sector.

Olivier’s latest book, Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment, co-authored with Daniel Kahneman and Cass R. Sunstein, has appeared on multiple bestseller lists worldwide, including the New York Times list. His previous book, You’re About to Make a Terrible Mistake!, was awarded the 2019 Manpower Foundation Grand Prize for best management book of the year, and is translated into multiple languages. He is also the co-author of Cracked It! How To Solve Big Problems and Sell Solutions Like Top Strategy Consultants (with B. Garrette et C. Phelps), and a contributor to the 2019 edition of Strategor, the best-selling French-language strategy textbook. In addition, he is the author or co-author of numerous scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals (Strategy Science, Long Range Planning, Research in Economics) and in practitioner-oriented publications (Harvard Business Review, McKinsey Quarterly, MIT Sloan Management Review, California Management Review).

Olivier builds on this research and experience to advise senior leaders on strategic and operational decision-making. He is a frequent keynote speaker and facilitator of top management and board meetings. He also serves as a member of corporate, advisory and investment boards.

Olivier Sibony is a graduate of HEC Paris and holds a Ph. D. from Université Paris-Dauphine. He is a knight in the French Order of the Légion d’Honneur. He is married and the father of two children. He lives in Paris.

Reviews

[Юра Мельник · Rating 4 out of 5]

Мислення швидке і повільне у скороченому варіанті. Адаптоване для великих і маленьких компанії, а також просто для командних гравців

[Mircea Petcu · Rating 5 out of 5]

În 1975, după primul șoc petrolier, doi indivizi au contactat compania Elf Aquitane, principala corporație franceză din industria petrolieră, aflată în proprietatea statului. Cei doi nu aveau nicio experiență anterioară în industria petrolieră, dar pretindeau că sunt inventatorii unei metode revoluționare de descoperire fără foraj a zăcămintelor de țiței. Metoda lor ar permite unui avion echipat special "să adulmece" țiteiul de la mare altitudine. Proiectul a primit sprijinul guvernului francez și au fost cheltuiți aproape 500 milioane de dolari în banii de astăzi.
Când cineva ne spune o poveste bine închegată, avem tendința naturală să căutăm în primul rând și cu precădere elemente care să o confirme și să le găsim. Mecanismul mintal care ne face să cădem în această capcană se numește TENDINȚA CONFIRMAȚIONISTĂ.
în 1975, Franța avea, pe lângă avioanele Airbus, un program nuclear avansat și pregătea TGV-ul. Nu părea deloc neplauzibil că Franța putea să inventeze un proces pe care nimeni altcineva din întreaga lume încă nu îl descoperise.

În 2011, compania J.C.Penney, care administra 1100 de magazine cu amânuntul, căuta un nou CEO care să insufle un aer proaspăt unei companii îmbătrânite. Board-ul directorilor l-a ales pe Ron Johnson, cel care a creat și dezvoltat rețeaua de Apple Stores, magazine recunoscute pentru designul inovator. Johnson a investit sume impresionante pentru refacerea designului magazinelor J.C.Penney pentru a semăna cu magazinele Apple. După un an compania avea pierderi mari iar Johnson a fost demis. Noile magazine au îndepărtat clienții vechi și nu au reușit să atragă clienți noi.
Eroarea FALSEI ATRIBUIRI ne determină să acordăm succesul (sau eșecul) unei persoane și să subestimăm rolul jucat de împrejurări sau hazard.
Succesul rețelei de magazine Apple Stores i-a fost atribuit lui Ron Johnson, nu lansărilor noilor produse Apple (iPod, iPhone și iPad).

Cartea conține multe exemple.

Recomand

[عبدالرحمن عقاب · Rating 3 out of 5]

يعالج هذا الكتاب آلية اتخاذ القرارات في المؤسسات. ثلثه الأوّل يتحدث عن الأخطاء المعرفية التي جُبل عليها الإنسان ما يؤثر على صواب قراراته.
ثلثه الثاني يتحدث عن الكيفية التي تتجاوز فيها المؤسسة الوقوع في فخّ هاته الأخطاء. وما هي الطريقة الأسلم لاتخاذ القرار حين لا يكون الفشل خيارًا.
وأما ثلثه الأخير فحمل الرسالة التطبيقية للكتاب. أي ما يقترحه الكاتب من آليات لاتخاذ القرارات المؤسسية. وجاء على شكل توصيات وخطوات مقترحة لـ"هندسة" اتخاذ القرار كما يسميها.
يعتمد الكتاب بشكل أساسي على أبحاث الاقتصاد السلوكي وعلم النفس المعرفي، وهذا القسم الذي يهمني جدًا من الكتاب. ولم يحمل لي جديدًا، سوى التقسيم الذي يقترحه للأخطاء المعرفية. فهو تقسيم جيد ومثير للاهتمام، ويستحق محاولة اختباره والتفكر فيه مليًا. ويبني الكتاب نصائحه العملية على معارف ونصائح إدارية سابقة، وتأملات خاصة به ولم يثر هذا الجزء اهتمامي.
قد يُعاب على الكاتب إسهابه بشرحٍ مملّ في بعض أجزاء الكتاب، لكن يُغفر له ذلك بتلك الملخصات الجيدة التي يجعلها في نهاية كل فصل من فصول الكتاب.

[Junaid Noor · Rating 5 out of 5]

Must read for those interested in cognitive biases

I thought I did not need to read this book because I had already read Daniel Kahneman’s book and Dan Ariely’s book as well.

But what those books did was to scientifically prove the existence of those cognitive biases. However, those books did not provide good tips on how to deal with the biases in a practical manner.

This book by Olivier takes the next step and provides practical steps on how to deal with cognitive biases and provides a blue print for a decision architecture.

Good book for those who are more interested in implementing practical frameworks to fight cognitive biases in the work place as well as improving existing decision architecture of their organisations.

[Mohamed Al Sayyah · Rating 3 out of 5]

كتاب سلس وخفيف، أفضل فصل فيه هو الفصل الأول

[Кирило Половінко · Rating 5 out of 5]

Якщо ви вважаєте себе забагато «вумним» та «прошареним», то ось вам пігулка. Вона не лікує від хронічного довбодовбизму та не перетворює корону на ваших вухах на пісок. Вона робить прибирання алгоритму прийняття рішень вашого мозку.

Якщо ви на кожній третій нараді кажете про себе «Ето ***ня», то ця книжка для вас!
Якщо ви бачите як суспільство нагально захоплюється якоюсь новинкою і починаєте розповідати, як людство отупішало, то ця книжка для вас!
Якщо ви Кирило Половінко і читаєте «Проти ночі» Поліни Кулакової, то «Тримай, трясця, візьми та прочитай»!

Я прочитав не так багато бізнес-літератури, щоб класифікувати її далі за «Хєрня/Цікаво». І от «Досить уже помилок» потрапляє саме до другої категорії.

До бізнес-літератури я починаю скептично ставитись із першого натяку на моралізаторство. Те саме «Осьо погано, осьо добре» від творців «Уважай старших» та «Я мать — мнє віднєє». Але "Досить уже помилок" просто жбурляє в тебе кейси по класифікації упереджень. І ніякого моралізаторства. Отримав установку у дзьобало й сам для себе вибудовуєш подальшу стратегію прийняття рішень. Та-та-та, тобі просто кидають «Ліворуч підеш — нога відвалиться. Праворуч підеш — рука відсохне». Й сам вирішуй як тобі краще поступатись, але май на увазі, що функції «посередині» немає.

Це файна книга, яка прочистить мозок як у побуті, так і бізнесі. Але щоб всмоктувати увесь сік, треба читати вдумливо. Не «на вечір».

[Atamas Natalia · Rating 4 out of 5]

У цій книжці три великі переваги у порівнянні з іншими книжками подібної тематики: помилки у прийнятті рішень, викликані логічними хибами та когнітивними пастками, та їх виправлення.
Власне, це:

1. Практичність. Книга структурована та написана так, аби все починати застосовувати на найближчій скайп-нараді просто зараз. Там нема нічого зайвого, кожен елемент працює на читача, книжка не згаїть ваш час незрозуміло на що. Вона корисна та лаконічна.
2. Сторітелінг. Класні історії і кейси з великого бізнесу дуже добре допомагають запам'ятовувати основні тези тексту. Недарма кажуть: "Хочешь достучатися до когось - розкажи гарну історію". Це таки працює.
3. Універсальність. Книга підійде не тільки для гравців великого і малого бізнесу, хоч і позиціонується як бізнес-книга. Вона стане у нагоді будь-яким людям, що працюють у проектах з іншими людьми - науковцям, стартаперам, ГОшнікам і так далі.

А ще відчувається, що її писав викладач - і для людей, які цінують свій час.

[Aicha Yakan عائشة يكن · Rating 5 out of 5]

I just finished translating this into Arabic.. I can't wait for it to be published in English and Arabic soon.. after this pandemic is over!
It's an excellent book for leaders, CEOs, entrepreneurs, politicians, Managers , Business students, and all decision makers..
I hope Arab readers will enjoy the Arabic version as much as I enjoyed translating it!

[Ioana · Rating 5 out of 5]

Many dog ears! Sibony builds on Kahneman’s work and extrapolates it to the world of business. I’m only 60 pages or so deep into TFAS, and I must confess I find the writing style a bit of a turn off (as did other of my colleagues), despite the exciting subject matter. Anyway, we psychology students over here are all hopelessly in love with Kahneman (by that I think I mean ME ALONE, but that’s ok), I’m sure he won’t mind we find his writing style a bit dull. Plus, I have to read the whole thing before I state my case, don’t I?
Sibony on the other hand uses a writing technique that someone putting together a case study would use, which compliments the book very well and shelters his readership from that uggh moments.
From my perspective, that being one from a person that has been involved rather closely with management in my work endeavors so far (and hopefully never again), one thing I can tell you for sure is no person in their right mind would believe that all the advice Sibony puts forward should be applied altogether. Sure, being a contrarian, standing up to the boss and pointing the red flags or simply explaining how a project will fail sooner or later are all fine and dandy in theory. Now, having tried all that, believe you me that if you so choose, you will bug the hell out of a lot of people, you will be a colossal pain in the but and most probably get sacked if you insist on manifesting your charming `bias-reduction` skills. But Sibony is not under the spell that would make him think that – use this advice and use it wisely, he might as well say. Whoever bought this, bought this for himself, not for large scale implementation, if you ask me.

Human error is rather predictable and it turns out that biases, the „byproduct of heuristics” are much more common than we thought. Since we had tens of thousands of years of evolution for system 1 and system 2 to self-optimize, and most of the time they serve us well, it’s no wonder that, as other evolutionary feats, they are sometimes fallible and can make us prone to quick judgments when what we should do is sit it out or think it through. What shines through is that an intelligent manager needs to examine obstacles and possible failures, either post-mortem or preferably pre-mortem, taking use of one of our most cherished abilities – the cheapest travel through space and time –chronesthesia, as Tulving coined it. He also needs a devil on his shoulder, because the ass-kissing angel is never too far (or maybe the names should be inverted, judging by the damage they incur). What else? Think for the long term despite the pressure and not be too coy about taking an investment risk, despite the strong risk aversion bias we (most of us) have. He needs to use procedures as guidance though not blindly, checklists for the big deals, and foster a collaborative environment (or else you’ll see him or his sidekicks use the word “synergy” a lot🙄).
One would need a Delian diver to see it through to the bottom of the pool of all the biases, or maybe an Olympic team of them.
N.B.
I took time to see Thirteen Days, a movie Sibony mentioned in the book - it's about the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 and how Kennedy handled it. Interested in leadership or diplomacy, or keeping a cool head under pressure - then this is definitely worth a watch!
This is not a blockade! this is language, a new vocabulary, the likes of which the world has never seen! this is president Kennedy communicating with secretary Khrushchev! goosebumps!

[Marks54 · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a business trade book/text focusing on advising readers on how to understand and adapt to the potential influences of cognitive biases on business decisions. The author is a strategy professor at HEC in France with long prior experience at McKinsey, to some the premier strategy consulting firm. The intuition is to take the extensive research on biases that is a part of “behavioral decision theory” or “behavioral economics” - typified in the work of Tversky and Kahneman - and show how the findings of this tradition of studies can be applied by senior managers to strategic decision situation. There are lots of arguments made and many recommendations to readers. The author is very clear and provides the reader with a quick summing up at the end of each chapter (topic X in 30 seconds).

As; these books go, this one is fairly good. Sibony is thoughtful and experienced. He provides up to date arguments that are tied to research. He provides copious examples of his points as well, so that readers can understand how these occasionally abstract results about things called decisions look like when they appear to managers in real time. Sibony’s book is especially valuable for its thoroughness in covering biases and his insight that these threats to decisions do not operate independently of each other, but instead show up in clusters in different situations. Those familiar with this literature will appreciate that the key results come from experiments that are carefully designed to isolate one particular aspect of decisions and choices and which of necessity abstract away from the more common very messy situations faced by managers. Sibony is also effective at meshing the work on biases with other studies of decision management approaches that have been applied in large firms, for example scenario techniques for planning in the energy business.

I am a bit hesitant about a full throated recommendation. At the risk of oversimplification, many books in this genre start seeming like what some call “Be Smart Management”, characterized by an effort to promote more thorough and more effectively - and hence smarter - decision making, such that by correcting mistakes, readers will become better decision makers and more effective managers. The problem with “Be Smart Management” is that big decisions are complex and difficult to make. Much is at risk and it is often difficult to know what are the right decisions to make and the best action steps to take. You can of course do an “after action review” following a decision, but hindsight does not aid the decision maker when the help is really needed - before the choice needs to be made.

Virtually all of these books on decision making seek to simplify what the manager needs to consider so that a good decision can be made without too many mistakes and without taking so much time that the opportunity goes away (“paralysis by analysis”). This must involve a simplification what what needs to be considered in the making of a decision. So the manager trying to make a decision effectively is actually dealing with a simpler world than the rich reality confronting the firm. Decision frameworks vary by how much they abstract from reality and which information is the focus of attention and which data are collected.

The Tversky/Kahneman work focuses on how we simplify - using heuristics - and the problems that arise in doing so, since heuristics lead us to neglect aspects of reality and time frames that may be important for the firm. The problem is that everyone does this and our decision making heuristics are generally helpful in simplifying certain types of decisions. It is with those other types of decisions where trying to think as we do every day can lead to gross errors and bad choices. That is why managers need the advice provided by these books.

The problem is how to avoid the process of substituting one set of decision aids for another and how to be sure that the decision making processes for unusual, complex, and important problems are actually being improved. Each situation is highly idiosyncratic, the people involved are highly fallible, and time pressures loom large. Strategic decision making does not seem to be a subject that is really amenable to effective treatment by a business trade book, even one as sharp as this one.

Towards the end, Professor Sibony rightly moves to an organizational approach to this problem, arguing the need to develop a “decision architecture” within a firm to embody the processes, incentives, and values that are needed. This comes across as too little, however, especially since the research upon which this book is based is focused on individuals rather than top management teams and organizational designs.

Still, this is a generally effective book and is well organized. The size of sections, the pacing of the text, and the aids for remembering lots of information are all helpful. This book would also likely go well in conjunction with case studies or even projects. It is worth reading.

[Jiří · Rating 5 out of 5]

Really nice wrap-up of various types of biases, how they can influence your decision making and how to avoid them. Includes appropriate number of real-life examples and stories + quick summaries at the end of each chapter.

[AkelaRa · Rating 5 out of 5]

Для мене досі незвично, що нонфікшн книги на подібну тематику можуть бути написані без води про те, який кльовий автор, і без нав'язування вини читачеві "ти мало стараєшся". Тому кожен раз, коли зустрічаю дружній текст -- радію, як дитя.

Також приємним відкриттям в книзі було те, що автор не намагається ні здатись краще, ніж читач чи люди, інтерв'ю з якими він наводить за приклад, ні перевчити читача. Бо когнітивні викривлення -- це нормально. І вони несуть свою користь. А для випадків, коли вони шкідливі, ось, читачу, набір інструментів, який може стати тобі в нагоді.

[Jazzany · Rating 4 out of 5]

Більша частина книги присвячена системній клисифікації та опису когнітивних упереджень, з теорією, поясненнями та прикладами життя, та варіантами як справлятись з цими упередженнями. Окремо подобається, що автор неодноразово наголошує на командному підході, а також можливості помилятись, і при тому всеодно робити кращі рішення.

[Roman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Vlastne jsem od te knizky cekal trochu vic. Cetl jsem na doporuceni, ale vetsinu informaci uz jsem cetl nekde jinde. Navic mam radsi kdyz ty biasy zasadi nekdo do vetsiho kontextu. Pokud jste necetli Cernou labut nebo Mysleni rychle a pomale, klidne si pul hvezdy v hodnoceni pridejte.

[Maryna Nagorna · Rating 4 out of 5]

“Досить уже помилок. Як упередження впливають на наші рішення” - Олів'є Сібоні

Звідки ми знаємо, що один спосіб ухвалення рішення кращий за інший?

Автор чесно зазначає, що ця книга не містить інструкції як позбутись від упереджень, бо це неможливо навіть після ознайомлення з численними описами та прикладами.

У момент ухвалення рішення ми не свідомі наших упереджень (що саме у собі є blind-spot bias). Здебільшого похибки пізнання - це інтуїтивні “короткі шляхи” нашого еволюційного мозку, щоб швидше опрацювати щоденні ситуації або й підтримувати образ самих себе у власних очах.

Їх вплив можна зменшити, але знову ж таки не самостійно, а в команді. Навіть + однієї людини у вашому оточенні достатньо, щоб зменшити ефект упереджень одне одного. Це завжди про процес від умовно невдалого рішення до трохи кращого.

Книга має чітку структуру: головна тема розділу, поділ на мікроглави, виділення основних ідей наприкінці кожного розділу. Типологія упереджень. Набір інструментів для ефективного рішення.

!!! - Момент, який я не зауважила коли купувала книгу. Наведені у третьому розділі методи зменшення впливу похибок та підвалини кожного ефективного рішення стосуються команд у підприємницькій діяльності або людей, які приймають фінальні рішення.
Тобто якщо ви шукаєте порад для позаробочих сфер життя, можете сміливо пропускати цей розділ або й обрати іншу літературу.

Хоча знання про дію похибок пізнання не убезпечить мене від їх впливу, але намір пригадати про їх існування у момент вирішення може зупинити від похопного рішення.

[Ana-Maria Bujor · Rating 3 out of 5]

If you are familiar with biases and fallacies, as I was, you will still find plenty of useful things in this book. First, the way it reframes fallacies and the examples provided helped me out quite a bit, especially the storytelling fallacy. We make a story and go with it, while many other stories could be made using the same data. I found myself reanalyzing situations from work based on this book.
But rather than just telling us we are very wrong very often, this book also offers a wide range of techniques one can use to achieve better decision-making. I think we could use some of them, so again, quite useful.
A very accessible book that should give you a useful tip or two

[Oleksander Lysenko · Rating 5 out of 5]

Як вступ до когнітивістики і поведінкової економіки - чудовий варіянт. Автор спочатку дає приклади найпоширеніших упереджень, класифікує їх, а потім детально пояснює, як ці упередження побороти. Найважливіше, що підхід системний і виправданий. До того ж, наводяться приклади до кожного розділу з життя найвідоміших світових компаній. Безсумнівно рекомендую.

[Øleksandra Banina · Rating 3 out of 5]

Ми напевне виграли б, якби, не обмежуючи власних прагнень, вивчали досвід людей, схожих на нас, управлінців з менш гучним успіхом, замість ідолів, яких затято мавпує весь світ.

непоганий розбір когнітивних викривлень, які впливають на прийняття рішень. здебільшого кейси стосуються бізнесу, але є над чим порефлексувати і відносно власного життя

[Pavol Cobirka · Rating 5 out of 5]

Easy to read, easy to understand and remember. Including many important facts, stories and examples.

I really appreciate summaries which helps you to search and find information you need.

I highly recommend this book for everyone dealing with management, business or everyday life :)

[Martí · Rating 5 out of 5]

Molt bon llibre. Imprescindible per a decision-makers. Cada secció s'acaba amb un breu resum clau.

[Rajat Nagpal · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book defines the psychology of our daily decisions and the biases we have, I do trading and I cannot explain how helpful this book was in opening many dimensions to how I think. It is a good read.

[Baris Yaman · Rating 5 out of 5]

Widely-known biases translated into practical, real-world examples

[Anton Makushenko · Rating 4 out of 5]

У житті нам постійно доводиться робити вибір, та часто багаж минулого чи упередження можуть заводити нас не туди. Олівʼє Сібоні зібрав у своїй книзі основні когнітивні викривлення і спробував пояснити, як можливо зменшити їх вплив на ухвалення рішень.

Мені сподобалось, що в достатньо маленькій книжці автор вмістив дуже багато інформації, і при цьому текст не душить тебе. Книга адресована більше керівникам і підприємцям, та гадаю, вона може бути корисною для всіх.

Самі розділи невеликі, а наприкінці кожного містяться підсумки по темі. Вийшов напів посібник з когнітивістики, при цьому щедро здобрений результатами досліджень та випадками реальних осіб і компаній. Матеріал подано так, що ті чи інші рішення можна застосовувати ледь не перед робочими зустрічами. Сумніваюсь, що всі читачі цієї книжки врешті стануть топ-менеджерами, та показати інший погляд на світ вона точно здатна.

[Amir Salar Pourhasan · Rating 3 out of 5]

It is a good book in my opinion which explains some biases by explaining examples. I've read about those biases and that is why I think there was not much new for me on this book but still I recommend it to read.

I've read it's Blinkist summarized version

[Joseph · Rating 5 out of 5]

I received a digital galley edition of this book from Net Galley in exchange for a fair review. Let me say, this is an excellent book. In fact, I would strongly argue that this book is better than Richard Rumelt's, "Good Strategy, Bad Strategy," that has been highly praised over the past decade as one of the few business strategy books that is worth reading. The author does a terrific job organizing common decision-making biases in an engaging, well-written way. He uses both his experience as a consultant and a well-read individual about behavioral economics, behavioral psychology, scholarly work in decision-making and business strategy. Rather than list the over 100 types of cognitive traps we fall into, he develops an ingenious taxonomy called the five families of biases that he breaks down into a star-like diagram with pattern-recognition biases at the top with action-oriented biases on the left hand point and inertia biases directly opposite and social biases and interest biases on the bottom with connecting lines between the 5 categories that form a star. This is probably the best classification I have seen in how to organize one's thinking about biases. He writes engagingly using both relatively known strategic business decisions that companies or political figures faced and some not so well known. At the end of every chapter is a brief review of the important points that have been explained, which is very well done.

There is also sage advice that it's also impossible to completely debias decision-makers, but "methods that change the environment of the decision-maker, instead of her way of reasoning," so that "the way to improve decisions in an organization is to improve the decision-making practices of the organization." In the latter part of the book he gives 40 tips on how organizations can do this. The tips are insightful but I felt that this was the weaker part of the book as each of the tips was only a few paragraphs long and didn't resonate as much as some of the more detailed anecdotes Siboni developed earlier in the book when he was able to more fully develop how unfortunate decisions were made by smart people by mixing analysis with narrative details within the corporate and political domains. The two most insightful stories to me involved Warren Buffett who was against an executive compensation package but still didn't vote no because he didn't want to "break the harmony of the group," which demonstrates how difficult it is to resist groupthink. The second anecdote, which is worth the price of the book in of itself, is how he demonstrates the perils of information cascades. For example, how an unanimous decision by a group of people may originate from just one impassioned individual. If a strong-willed proponent of an initiative goes first, perhaps the next person softens or eliminates his or her concerns such that by time everyone weighs in no one wants to be a naysayer and the group adopts a more extreme position because private information wasn't shared. In other words, what might have been a minority position becomes the majority one.

Yet despite the focus on how strategic decision making can go wrong, early in the book he contrasts the difference between intuitive decision-making and strategic decision making. He correctly, in my opinion, highlights how firefighters, nurses and others can make the correct intuitive judgement more often than not because the individuals working in this environment have "prolonged practice with clear feedback in a high-validity environment." These type of decisions are not strategic and therefore we can trust that most of the time we make correct decisions in our daily lives.

Sibony's book should be thought of as a primer for the "relatively rare" times when we face strategic decisions. I think this book could assist individual's personally and certainly leaders everywhere in how to make thoughtful decisions by setting up a sound decision-making architecture that leads to a better process in making decisions that impacts many lives. Credit for this wise, terrific book should also go to the translator, Kate Deimling, who does such a masterful job translating Siboni's French it's as if it was written primarily in English. This book is a must read and is highly recommended.

[Sharon · Rating 4 out of 5]

Lots of insights about bias and how to counter bias on an organizational level.

[Olysavra · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dense and well-written summary of biases and strategies for managing them in business environments.

[Plamen Apostolov · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ако имаше 4,5 звезди, сигурно щях да дам тази оценка.
Първата част (от общо три) на книгата е задължително четиво за всички, които се интересуват от темата защо вземаме едно или друго решение и “капаните” (общо 9 според автора), на които попадаме, докато го правим.
Втората част доразвива първата с малко повече примери и загатва, че понякога може да променим нещата, а понякога просто трябва да се примирим, че резултатите са плод на случайност.
Третата част може да се окачестви като практическа. Ако притежавате бизнес, особено по-голям (с повече персонал), определено трябва да я прочетете внимателно. Ако сте в ролята на служител в голяма корпорация, също може да изведете доста полезни неща, които да предложите на ръководството или просто да “сверите часовника”. Уви, в по-малки компании голяма част от техниките за по-добри решения няма как да бъдат приложени.
Обобщено, добре е да имате книгата в библиотеката, ако си падате по книги като “Мисленето” (често цитирана и в тази).

[Chris Boutté · Rating 5 out of 5]

I learned about Olivier when I saw he's working on a book with one of my favorite thinkers, Cass Sunstein. I love books on the psychology of decision making and the cognitive flaws we experience, and this is definitely one of the better ones. My only issue with the book is no fault of the author, but I've noticed that most of these books have a target audience that's made up of the ultra-wealthy, and a lot of the examples used are to help them make better investment and business decisions. Again, no fault of the author for making that his target audience, but I wish more of these books were written for the average person.

[Peter Hession · Rating 2 out of 5]

I didn't enjoy this book as much as I thought I would. Maybe I found it difficult to accept that, as it explains, there are not any solutions to personal biases. The only way to combat them is in a group. The second half of the book describes how to do this in a business setting which, although mildly interesting, is not something relevant to my current situation. Perhaps others will get more from it than I did.