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时寒冰说:未来二十年,经济大趋势(未来篇)

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是什么导致了货币的持续超发?如何看待中国的股市?判断中国房价趋势转变的关键点是什么?当下与未来的风险和机会在哪里?大宗商品的涨跌周期如何界定?面对未来的大趋势,投资者该如何做选择?企业家应该如何决策?……
本书通过分析中国决策、大国角逐、全球博弈三条主线,对上述问题一一做出解答,展现出一个波澜壮阔的涵盖中国和全球主要经济体的宏大趋势,以及涵盖楼市、汇率、大宗商品等在内的微观趋势,让未来20年纤毫毕现。
本书带给大家的并非简单的结论,而是非常系统和具体的分析过程。既给读者投资决策提供重要的参考,也帮助读者认识、掌握系统分析趋势的基本方法。
这是一本百科全书式的趋势分析巨作。在本书中,著名经济趋势研究专家时寒冰以权威的数据,通过与现实、历史的结合,通过跨学科、跨领域的贯通,推导出未来的大趋势。
现在,我们正处在全球巨变的前夜。这场注定将改变许多国家和民众命运的巨变,将以怎样的形式展开?它对中国乃至每一个人的命运意味着什么?……本书给出的解答,将展现出未来20年令人惊讶的大趋势。我们需要知道未来的趋势,洞悉即将到来的大风险、大机会,及早做好准备。
这是一部让人清醒的好书,除了大众读者外,也非常适合金融企业和机构、能源企业和部门(尤其是石油、石化行业)、企业家和政府部门、军队系统等团购。
本书分为“现实篇”和“未来篇”上下两部。上部“现实篇”写到2015年,偏重于写原因、规律和战略布局。下部“未来篇”从2016年写到2034年,是由上部的“因”和战略布局引申出未来的“果”,是对2016~2034年中国、美国和全球大趋势以及房价、外汇、大宗商品等走势的具体展望。“现实篇”和“未来篇”是一个不可分割的整体。强烈建议读者从本书的“现实篇”(上部)开始读起,沿着三条主线,最终找到未来趋势的发展方向。

533 pages, Kindle Edition

First published July 1, 2014

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时寒冰

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58 reviews
February 20, 2017
The author is a famous economist in China. I had ever read one of his popular science book which illustrates the basic mechanism of how the economist works in human society. From then on, I became interesting in his books.

From this book I also get a clear definition of what is economy(this simple question has puzzled me many years): economy is the concept that includes manufacture, assign, exchange and consume. I should have recited this kind of explanation in my middle school, but never really remembered in my brain. After reading his book, I became realizing the meaning of it.

This book tried to describe the global situation that China is facing to, from lots of different perspective. Not only analyze the internal and external facts, but also mentioned the other countries' situation, and then how China may be influenced.

This is a comprehensive economy-analysis book for the coming few decades(From 2016 actually), not only for(maybe mainly for) China, but also for the global.
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