Learning from Loss: The Democrats, 2016–2020

by Seth Masket

The Democrats' decision to nominate Joe Biden for 2020 was hardly a fluke but rather a strategic choice by a party that had elevated electability above all other concerns. In Learning from Loss, one of the nation's leading political analysts offers unique insight into the Democratic Party at a moment of uncertainty. Between 2017 and 2020, Seth Masket spoke with Democratic Party activists and followed the behavior of party leaders and donors to learn how the party was interpreting the 2016 election and thinking about a nominee for 2020. Masket traces the persistence of party factions and shows how interpretations of 2016 shaped strategic choices for 2020. Although diverse narratives emerged to explain defeat in 2016 - ranging from a focus on 'identity politics' to concerns about Clinton as a flawed candidate - these narratives collectively cleared the path for Biden.

Genres: Nonfiction, History

256 pages, Hardcover

Published September 22, 2020

Reviews

[Graeme · Rating 5 out of 5]

Seth Maskit has explained so much that I felt that I would never understand about the process of developing candidates for the US presidency. By following the Democrats from their disastrous loss to a bizarre and ridiculous candidate to the confirmation of Joe Biden's candidacy in 2020, he was able to analyze and demonstrate the factors that matter, with electability paramount. Maskit is a fine, relaxed writer, wonkish and analytical enough to satisfy the most demanding political scientist yet leaving no aspect of the process and the human dynamics unexamined. I have so much new respect for the American political system. It delivers functional democracy most of the time, and that is probably all we can ask.

[Nicky · Rating 5 out of 5]

Masket excels at assessing where the Democrats were as a party leading up to and following the 2016 election. I see a lot of parallels between his own election philosophies and Lichtman's. It's quite fascinating and almost counterintuitive to how most people, me included, are used to thinking about election odds. I'm used to scouring through polls and big data to make an educated guess. They take a much more simplistic and wholistic approach. Although Masket was just as wrong as I in 2016, Lichtman was not and I think there is some credibility to what they have to say about what really matters if you want to win an election.

However, Masket isn't actually here to talk about election forecasting. He's here to talk about how the Democratic party dealt with their crushing 2016 defeat, and how the narratives about why they lost shaped their pick for the 2020 nominee. This is discussed quite thoroughly, and unfortunately it seems that they haven't been able to coalesce around one narrative or even one candidate really. I personally expect this fractionizing of the party to get worse; however at the moment it seems like something similar is happening on the Republican side between Trump supporters and defectors. It will be interesting (and nerve-wracking) to see how it all plays out over the next four years.

[Justin · Rating 2 out of 5]

Meh. Not compelling.

I did not learn anything new from this book, nor were there any compelling insights as to how the Democrats learned from loss in 2016 or what they learned.

It is all rather conventional: progressive Sanders faction, establishment Clinton/Biden faction, people want an "electable" candidate after losing to Donald Trump.

The research design was not great. Of course individuals will react in a certain way when told the Party to which they belong focused too much on "identity politics" and a "control" group who is told about children receiving certain medications after procedures will act another when asked about what attributes they want to see in a candidate. The deck has been stacked - it is less about the impact of "identity politics" and more about the emotional reaction Democratic voters felt after specifically being reminded of a painful loss to Donald Trump. It would have been more interesting to have two test groups of two competing potential narratives and one control group who is told nothing.

Also, "Voters with more sexist attitudes, even within the Democratic Party, were less likely to support her" reads like almost like an apology.

Interesting if you just want to read more about 2016 and party insiders, but not great as an explanation of what the Party may have learned.

[John Paschold · Rating 5 out of 5]

Masket is a talented writer, and this book is highly accessible and readable. Deep dive into the Democratic Party from their 2016 loss up until spring of 2020, shortly before Biden’s official nominiation. Great mix of political science-y stuff and punditry. Highly recommend for anyone interested in political parties or American campaigns and elections.

[Will Atkins · Rating 4 out of 5]

Pretty good analysis of the invisible primary, and provides an explanation I hadn’t heard before. I’d like to see this same analysis conducted in Florida.