To Rule the Waves: How Control of the World's Oceans Shapes the Fate of the Superpowers

by Bruce Jones

From a brilliant Brookings Institution expert, an “important” ( The Wall Street Journal ) and “penetrating historical and political study” ( Nature ) of the critical role that oceans play in the daily struggle for global power, in the bestselling tradition of Robert Kaplan’s The Revenge of Geography .

For centuries, oceans were the chessboard on which empires battled for supremacy. But in the nuclear age, air power and missile systems dominated our worries about security, and for the United States, the economy was largely driven by domestic production, with trucking and railways that crisscrossed the continent serving as the primary modes of commercial transit.

All that has changed, as nine-tenths of global commerce and the bulk of energy trade is today linked to sea-based flows. A brightly painted forty-foot steel shipping container loaded in Asia with twenty tons of goods may arrive literally anywhere else in the world; how that really happens and who actually profits from it show that the struggle for power on the seas is a critical issue today.

Now, in vivid, closely observed prose, Bruce Jones conducts us on a fascinating voyage through the great modern ports and naval bases—from the vast container ports of Hong Kong and Shanghai to the vital naval base of the American Seventh Fleet in Hawaii to the sophisticated security arrangements in the Port of New York. Along the way, the book illustrates how global commerce works, that we are amidst a global naval arms race, and why the oceans are so crucial to America’s standing going forward.

As Jones reveals, the three great geopolitical struggles of our time—for military power, for economic dominance, and over our changing climate—are playing out atop, within, and below the world’s oceans. The essential question, he shows, is who will rule the waves and set the terms of the world to come?

Genres: Politics, Nonfiction, History, Economics, Military Fiction, Naval History, International Relations

400 pages, Hardcover

Published September 14, 2021

Reviews

[Daniel · Rating 2 out of 5]

I appreciate the attempt to write a book that also encompasses the commercial aspects of sea power as opposed to merely the military aspects, but the execution is mediocre at best. The author tries to emulate the narrative writing style of Daniel Yergin or Robert Kaplan, but instead he merely throws around some facts that are laboriously forced in his wider narrative, but often misses the point and only detract from the narrative itself. Furthermore, he is often historically and factually incorrect with the things he has written down. Such as describing Shell as an American company, etc. And these are only the ones I have noticed. Makes you wonder whether he has missed the mark on other occassions as well, which is not just the fault of the author but also sloppy on the end of the editor / publisher as well. Truly a shame, because I honestly believe books like these deserve a wider audience.

[Jeff · Rating 5 out of 5]

(Mostly) Solid Examination Of History And Current Events. This is a fairly well documented - nearly 100 pages of its 400 are bibliography, *in addition to* at least a few paragraphs of footnotes at the end of every chapter - examination of both the history and current events of why both commercial and military control of the oceans is so important to human advancement. Some of the facts presented are truly mind-boggling, such as the sheer size of the Maersk Madrid - a ship used as a recurring case study, where if its full load of possible shipping containers were transported in a standard 2-high rail configuration, the train just to load this singular ship would stretch for *78 miles*. Others are more "standard fare" for most anyone who knows anything about the history of ocean travel or oceanography. Still, the book is current through March 2021, which is remarkable considering that I acquired this ARC in early June 2021. A must-read on a wide variety of issues from the complexities of modern logistics to the root cause and practical implications of modern military struggles to even the loss of American manufacturing jobs and the rise of Donald Trump, this book shows how control of the oceans has impacted all of these topics and many, many more. Really the only more "YMMV" section is the emphasis on global warming/ global cooling / climate change/ whatever they're calling it these days alarmism in the final section, but even here there are enough actual facts to warrant close examination. Very much recommended.

[Nils · Rating 5 out of 5]

Deftly weaves together the story of the economic logics that have led to global maritime integration (via the personal stories of Denmark’s Maersk and Hong Kong’s CH Tung) against the political logics which turn those same connections into geopolitical tensions and vulnerabilities, centered on the overwhelming fact of the headlong rise of China as a trading and maritime power.

[Yunling · Rating 3 out of 5]

還是以美國為視角的回看人類歷史上海權的變遷。

如此，看出從氣候變遷下影響的各層次、各地緣區域的機會和風險，以及跨區跨國的合作和衝擊。

[Brendan · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book is neither what I expected it to be nor can I quite describe what it is. I expected it to be a history-based discussion of how naval and commercial sea power contributed to the success or failure of states and empires and an analysis of strategies to "rule the waves." And there is some discussion of the history of sea power. But the book itself is more selected analyses of issues relating to the oceans. There's one chapter about the history of naval power. Another about piracy and anti-piracy efforts. One about commerce. Another about climate change. The only connecting theme seems to be "the oceans are really important in a lot of ways." There's a lot of information here, and the author is both knowledgeable and "did his homework," traveling to ports and naval bases and on ships and citing scores of sources (footnotes and citations are about 1/4 of the book). But while some of the items like the rise of China sea power and the development of global commerce and the anti-piracy efforts are closely tied to the "rule the waves" theme and were quite interesting, the throw-in chapter on climate change didn't belong here and it's not cohesive enough for any of it to be especially memorable.

[Himadri Bose · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bruce Jones delves into the geopolitical, economic, and strategic importance of the world's oceans, emphasising their role as the cornerstone of global power dynamics. His book is meticulously organised into four parts, beginning with a historical overview of maritime governance (Part I), progressing to the revolution in container shipping initiated in 1956 (Part II), addressing the complexities of flag state jurisdiction (Part III), and concluding with an examination of the strategic importance of maritime power (Part IV).
Jones asserts that control over the seas has historically been, and continues to be, a crucial determinant of a nation's dominance within the international order. He interweaves historical narratives, contemporary geopolitical analyses, and discussions of technological advancements to present a comprehensive exploration of maritime supremacy and its implications for global powers.
The book opens with a historical overview of maritime dominance, tracing its roots back to ancient empires and the early modern powers, notably the British Empire. Throughout history, the oceans have been vital for trade, exploration, and military strategy, serving as essential economic and political power conduits. The British mastery of the seas during the 18th and 19th centuries, fuelled by the Industrial Revolution and colonial expansion, established a precedent for how nations could leverage naval superiority to secure global hegemony. While Jones critiques this section as somewhat limited and superficial, he effectively argues that the transition of maritime power from Britain to the United States in the 20th century underscores the enduring importance of control over the seas. The dominance of the U.S. Navy, particularly during World War II and the Cold War, ensured American pre-eminence in the global order. Jones underscores that maritime power extends beyond mere military strength, encompassing the securing of trade routes and the projection of influence.
The book underscores the oceans' central role in the global economy, noting that over 90% of world trade by volume is transported by sea, positioning maritime shipping as the backbone of globalisation. Jones explores the complexities of supply chains, illustrating how goods, from electronics to food, depend on the seamless operation of maritime logistics. Critical nodes such as ports, shipping lanes, and chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the South China Sea emerge as pivotal components of this system. He discusses the transformative impact of container shipping, which revolutionised global trade by reducing costs and expanding markets, thereby driving worldwide economic growth. However, this section is critiqued for being somewhat repetitive, offering familiar data points with few new insights beyond specific trade details.
Jones examines the oceans as geopolitical battlegrounds where major powers such as the United States, China, and Russia compete for influence. He delves into the strategic importance of the South China Sea for global trade and its potential as a flashpoint for U.S.-China tensions. Highlighting China's construction of artificial islands and militarisation of the region, Jones portrays these actions as part of China's broader challenge to U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific. He also discusses Russia's Arctic strategy, where climate change is opening new shipping routes and access to untapped resources. Russia's significant investments in its Northern Fleet and related infrastructure signify the Arctic's emerging role as a new frontier for geopolitical competition.
The book addresses the strategic significance of chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal, which are crucial for global trade and energy flows. Jones argues that control over these chokepoints is a vital measure of a nation's maritime power. However, he falls short in exploring the practicalities of securing these critical waterways. He delves into technological advancements that have revolutionized naval warfare and commerce, including nuclear-powered submarines, aircraft carriers, precision-guided missiles, satellites, and unmanned systems, collectively enhancing situational awareness and operational capabilities.
In the commercial sphere, Jones discusses how technology is reshaping shipping and logistics through innovations like autonomous ships, digital tracking systems, and green technologies. These advancements increase efficiency, reduce environmental impact, and introduce new vulnerabilities, such as cyber threats to maritime infrastructure.
Jones also addresses the environmental consequences of human activity on the oceans, including overfishing, pollution, and climate change. He highlights the paradox of the seas as both a source of wealth and a repository for waste, with the exploitation of marine resources and pollution posing significant threats to ocean ecosystems and biodiversity. Climate change, associated with rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and melting ice caps, poses existential threats to coastal communities and small island nations. Jones calls for international cooperation to address these challenges, though he acknowledges that geopolitical rivalries often hinder collective action.
The book concludes with a forward-looking analysis of maritime power in the 21st century, identifying three key trends: the rise of China, technological disruptions, and climate change. Jones emphasises the need for multilateralism and innovation to ensure the oceans remain a source of prosperity and stability. However, the discussion on climate change and pollution is somewhat limited, and the absence of maps detracts from the reader's comprehension. The depth of analysis appears to have been sacrificed for breadth, making the book less insightful for readers already well-versed in maritime issues. Nevertheless, for the uninitiated, it serves as a well-researched, concise treatise on the primacy of the seas in an interconnected world, highlighting the importance of thoughtful stewardship in an increasingly contested global arena.
In conclusion, Jones provides a reasonably compelling narrative on the enduring significance of maritime power in shaping global dynamics. His wide-ranging analysis underscores the complex role of the oceans in economic, geopolitical, and environmental contexts. While the book offers limited new insights for people reasonably well-read in the field, of maritime affairs it remains an invaluable resource for those seeking to understand the complex interplay between maritime power and global stability.

[Allan Pomerantz · Rating 5 out of 5]

Great book especially in conjunction with the book The Strategy of Denial

Together these books lay out China's ongoing strategy to isolate and weaken the U.S. to a second rate power to China. This strategy is already well under way and is already one that the U.S. can't stop alone short of nuclear war without a major alliance with countries such as India, Japan, S.Korea and many others.
China's plan is the old discredited Domino Theory. The problem for the U.S. in Southeast Asia was that after Vietnam fell all the other countries all went Communist but each was different and they had no leader so they were no threat to the US.
China's plan is different. They Will start with Taiwan and hop one island to the next a annexing S. Korea and the Phillipense and finally Japan then they will cut the U.S. out of trading with Asia, drastically damaging the U.S. economically.hi

[Dave · Rating 3 out of 5]

To Rule the Waves is a very ambitious book, which attempts to tell the story of the impact of the oceans on modern life, including a substantial discussion of the historical developments that have underpinned this. The topics it covers are important, and the perspective the author coming from is valuable, but at times the distance between the ambition of the work and the scope of knowledge required to achieve it, and the limits of any one individual that had not specialised in many of the fields covered in the work before, become clear.

The discussion is divided into four broad parts. The first is a series of anecdotes highlighting various aspects of how the oceans impact everyday life; the second focuses on the development of containerisation and the explosion in international trade; The third focuses on naval power in the contemporary context; while the fourth looks at the resources to be found in or under the seas, and the impact of climate change.

The writing is generally crisp and easy-to-read, although there are occasional examples of more esoteric language (peripatetic and puissant, for example). The structure makes sense, and the narrative flows well. Overall, it does a good job of guiding users through a very broad range of topics, and does not require pre-existing knowledge to follow the argument.

It falls down, however, in depth and attention to detail. Of the broad topics covered in the book, I have only read in any depth on the historical side, but this meant that a number of somewhat skewed historical references jumped out at me. Looseness in attention-to-detail also extends to some of the modern information contained in the book. Intrigued by the description of Yangshan Port given in the text, I looked it up on Google Maps, only to discover some elements of the description were incorrect (the gantry cranes are on the western, not eastern side, for example). While in this instance it wasn’t material, one is left with a gnawing doubt that the lack of attention to detail will impact the broader arguments made by the book (and makes it harder to trust the information that’s provided). Discussions of the development of naval strategy are overly focussed on Mahan (suggesting a very US-centric understanding of the world that is reflected in other parts of the book – and while the book is deliberately written from a US point of view, that’s no excuse for a limited understanding of the broader context). The Spratly Islands are described as “off the northern coast of the Malaysian Peninsula” – an ambitious claim whether the direction or distance is considered. Most of the information in the book seems to be sound, but there are enough issues to make it harder to have confidence I was necessarily learning accurately about the areas I knew less about.

The occasional looseness with facts is mirrored by an occasional looseness with language as well. Some of these are harmless – referring to lifeboats as ships is clumsy, but the reader will be at no risk of understanding what is going on. However, using blockade when describing an embargo (when, particularly in the context of the discussion, they are very different things) risks confusing readers who don’t know historical events better. In both cases, they underline the author’s relatively shallow appreciation of naval/maritime history and strategy.

That being said, I still found the book valuable, and am at least reasonably confident that at least most of the broader brush-strokes painted by it are sound. The author has greater experience and expertise in questions of modern geopolitics and strategy, and so while I can’t vouch for it (I certainly don’t have expertise in these areas) I expect the large parts of the book focussing on more contemporary issues to be sounder than the historical discussions (which are certainly not without merit, but not all of it should be taken at face value). Conversely, it was a shame that some of the key elements touched on in the conclusion, like the impact of increased global trade on economic and political redistribution within states and its impact on politics, wasn’t fleshed out (but it’s understandable given the already broad scope of the work).

The book has “information” style notes at the bottom of the page throughout the text, and reference notes as endnotes. Peculiarly, however, a small proportion of the endnotes are also information rather than reference notes. Given how few of them there were, it appears odd that the approach wasn’t consistent, and makes navigating the information notes more complicated than it need be. To its credit, unlike many modern books the footnotes usually stay “in sync”, with only one error noticed. The book has an extensive bibliography, including many valuable works, but lacks breadth when it comes to the historical discussion in the book.

All up, I’m still very glad to have read the book, particularly for its discussion of contemporary issues, but also for its historical discussion. It’s not perfect by any stretch, but it is solid, and its ambition meant it was always going to be a tough call for any one individual to have the knowledge required to pull off everything without a few slips. For anyone interested in the impact of oceans on modern life, including the economic importance of modern trade, it’s worth a read. It’s closer to 3.5 stars than 3, but the issues that cropped up in the historical discussions mean it’s not possible for me to have enough confidence in the rest of the book to give it 4 stars.

[Robin Banks · Rating 3 out of 5]

The first 216 pages were awesome, after that he gets political. Jones has a nice sense of history, and does wonderfully describing life aboard ship. There is a lack of detail even here, though, but a grand sense of being there. As for the details; he says trade is cheap without saying how cheap. He says that big boats are better, how much? why? He talks about insurance and the need to manage the swapping of containers, but only explains it by saying that it's all done by AI, and in China much involves no people at all. Somehow my sense is that things are not as simple. I learned little here, but enjoyed it. He describes the equipment aboard nay ships, but not how the equipment or men move (they move by container, BTW).
After that, is the political section. Here, I learned less and enjoyed it even less. It's all opinion, along with describing the people who hold these opinions. Biden is great, Trump is not because Biden is for free trade and ending climate change. He opines on America's military and Economic place, and then moves to a 100 page rant on the need for us to de-industiralize to save the planet. .Eveery problem of the world he lays on CO2 and climate change: COVID-19, wars in Myanmar, fish patterns, crop changes. In his view it's all bad, or maybe slightly good here, but very bad there. I'm not so sure that high CO2 levels are bad or that western deindustrialization would not be worse. Jones briefly admits that a lot of CO2 comes from China ,but does not admit haw enormous that majority is (forom India and Russia too). He's a big fan of trade too, while only briefly acknowledging that this wealth is being robbed from the ordinary US Joe and Jane, or that China's ability to provide fantastical bargains may be an illusion.
The good part is quite good. The bad part I fought through so I could write this review.

[Tony Taylor · Rating 5 out of 5]

Outstanding... worth ten stars. Probably the finest non-fiction book that you should want to read this year or next. If you have never given a thought as to the importance and power of the world's oceans historically, internationally, politically, militarily, economically, and defensively, then this book will open your eyes. It is one of those rare well-written non-fiction books that is so interesting and informative that you just want to keep reading it until your eyes tell you that it is time to go to bed. (My wife was one of those who picked it up before me and found that she couldn't put it down all the while telling me how much she knew I would enjoy it... but she had to finish reading it first.)

Once finished, you will then most likely want to tell those friends, family members, and acquaintances who are always looking for a good-read. And don't forget to encourage any college student who may be studying political science, business, International affairs, or history but have not yet figured out what to do with their degree, this book may inspire them to look at opportunities that they may have never before considered. It should also be a must-read for anyone in the sea services, especially young naval, coast guard, or merchant marine officers, as well as diplomats about to be assigned overseas.

Pass it on.

[Justin Goldman · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is exceptional in addressing a vast issue of massive consequence. The depth of the research is tremendous as I regularly referred back to the extensive footnotes in this ambitious work. Dr. Jones brings together the cross-cutting issues that unfold across the maritime domain from the shipping containers that transformed global commerce, to competition over resources that fuel modern life from natural gas to fisheries, to the buildup of naval forces that shape great power competition, and the effects of climate change from warming oceans to sea-level rise. He does well to make the argument to a U.S. audience that American prosperity and our future direction is inherently linked to the maritime commons, where the U.S. is being challenged by the People's Republic of China (PRC), with Chinese shipbuilding capability far exceeding that of the U.S. Although there is substantial discussion on the reliance of seaborne trade, Dr. Jones reminds the reader that 93% of the world's data travels through undersea cables. I appreciated his assessment on page 228, "The bottom line: the U.S. submarine fleet remains, for all intents and purposes, indestructible." I certainly hope that assessment continues to hold in the years ahead.

[Cody Kenny · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great non fiction book on today’s geopolitical situation mainly focusing on China and the United States and how that is playing out over the oceans. I also found the history of the oceans and how we got to our current situation very interesting - the transfer of power from the U.K to the US following WW2.

The amount of knowledge shared in this book is no small measure and I hope I am amble to retain at least 5% of it for future conversations.

This book really opened my eyes to how important the oceans are and from now on I will be paying closer attention to how the world’s powers jest for position.

[Jim Witkins · Rating 4 out of 5]

Talk about good timing. The book has a ripped from the headlines quality, with a fast paced overview of the history of naval power, trade, deep sea energy exploration, oceanography, climate change, and the future flash points in the coming US/China competition. By visiting ports, monster ocean going container ships, and secretive submarine bases around the world, Jones really gives you a feel for the immense wealth and power at stake, and the governmental power dynamics shaping our world for good and for ill. Definitely recommend. Enjoy the ride.

[Rick Davis · Rating 4 out of 5]

Bruce D. Jones book, To Rule the Waves, is interesting to say the least. I like the way he ties the political, economic, military, and scientific aspects of the oceans together in one work to show how they are all interconnected.

For those who have no idea how their computer or television set arrives to the local store, read this book and you will learn a lot about worldwide commerce. Amongst other topics, you will also learn the importance of maritime choke points, energy sources, and naval saber rattling.

[Knut · Rating 4 out of 5]

Gir en god forståelse av sammenhengen mellom kommersiell shipping og maritim militærmakt, både historisk og i dag. Likte godt gjennomgangen av "containerization" og hvor mye senkning av fraktkostnader har endret global handel. Bruker også en god del plass på å gjennomgå hvordan Kina har bygget opp marinen sin etter de innså hvor avhengige de er blitt av import og eksport på havet. Strukturen og den røde tråden i boka sklir ut i siste halvdel dessverre, men anbefales for å skjønne konsekvensene av eks. det som skjer i Rødehavet nå

[william p kelly · Rating 4 out of 5]

very good…and disturbing

This book is an eye opener for those who would like to understand the intricacies of global trade. It also outlines the ambitions of the States involved in the control of global trade. Finally, it discusses the causes and consequences of global warming while suggesting the likelihood of potential solutions. I found it all pretty depressing and will be looking for an uplifting story for my next read!

[Nate Hall · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book was phenomenal. Provided relevant and fascinating history for trans-oceanic shipping, naval military power, climate science, and more, all as context for clearly expressed conflicts that shape today's world. I went in with an open mind and came out both knowing more, and wanting to explore more about every topic - this really effectively communicated multiple complex and thorny problems of our time without being either too simplistic or overly bogged down in its own weight.

[Timc · Rating 5 out of 5]

An interesting history of oceans recounted from several points of view - trade, warfare, piracy, geographic advantages and disadvantages, and climate change to name a few. I found it fascinating.

I purchased the Audiobook version. The narrator is excellent.

[Dale · Rating 5 out of 5]

ocean power

This is a must read for understanding the geoeconomic significance of the world’s water ways. The author follows the chronological development of the strategic importance of oceans to globalization and then transitions into a discussion of climate change. Great read.

[John · Rating 4 out of 5]

4.5

[Wonyoung · Rating 5 out of 5]

interesting book

The topics are somewhat all over the place, from history of ocean trading to geopolitics to global warming, but all of them are very interesting.

[Craig Miller · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very dry but important read

[Guy · Rating 5 out of 5]

Everyone should read this book. It speaks in easy to comprehend verbiage to the future relationships between the US, it’s adversaries in trade, the arms race and climate change.

[Joseph Fuller · Rating 4 out of 5]

Frames issues facing the world's preeminent maritime power well. Not enlightening for a sophisticated audience.

[Dylan · Rating 3 out of 5]

Good as an introduction to naval power, but retreads some ground I am familiar with.

[Henry Di · Rating 5 out of 5]

The facts and their conclusions are presented and judgments follow.

[Mary Wong · Rating 4 out of 5]

Def a book I need to reread. The insights of this book were amazing but it would have been easier to follow the writer if there were maps of the bodies of water he referred to

[Brad Crofford · Rating 4 out of 5]

An well-written introduction to the importance of sea-based trade, naval competition in history and the present day, and climate change.

[Scott · Rating 4 out of 5]

Really fascinating and timely, but man this book was screaming for some maps.

[Nick Underhill · Rating 5 out of 5]

Picked this book up at the airport bookstore and I have to say it was fascinating and well researched! Highly recommend it.