America's Expiration Date: The Fall of Empires and Superpowers . . . and the Future of the United States

by Cal Thomas

A warning and a wake-up call to learn history so we are not doomed to repeat it. A must-read for anyone who longs for a promising future for our great nation.

What is wrong with America today? Is it possible that America could crumble and our democracy fail?

Questions like these plague Americans and cause us to be anxious about the future of the "land that we love." Individuals may come to different conclusions, but there seems to be a common thread - the deep-seated feeling that we need to improve our country. Our culture is increasingly immoral, the family structure is threatened from all sides, and government programs consistently overreach, creating massive debt.

In this powerful and prophetic book, nationally syndicated columnist and trusted political commentator Cal Thomas offers a diagnosis of what exactly is wrong with the United States by drawing parallels to once-great empires and nations that declined into oblivion. Citing the historically proven 250-year pattern of how superpowers rise and fall, he predicts that America's expiration date is just around the corner and shows us how to escape their fate.

Through biblical insights and hard-hitting truth, he reminds us that real change comes when America looks to God instead of Washington. Scripture, rather than politics, is the GPS he uses to point readers to the right road - a road of hope, life, and change. Because, he says, if we're willing to seek God first, learn from history, and make changes at the individual and community level, we can not only survive, but thrive, again.

This powerful, timely, and much-needed perspective is a must-read for anyone who longs for a promising future for our great nation.

Genres: History, Politics, Nonfiction, Cultural, Christian

192 pages, Paperback

Published September 29, 2020

Reviews

[Clay Davis · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author left out the Japanese, Chinese and Mongol empires. The 250 year lifespan of empires is not a hard and fast rule. There were not many examples of America's age of pioneers and arts given. Learned about this book from the Rush Limbaugh talk radio program.

[Ruth Meyer · Rating 4 out of 5]

Five years.

That’s all America has left.

No, Cal Thomas isn’t a self-proclaimed prophet who’s interpreted the signs and concluded that we’re going to experience some cataclysmic apocalypse in 2026. Rather, 250 years is the average length of time of the rise and fall of superpowers and empires, according to a historical pattern of other nations, which has not varied for 3000 years. If you do the math, 1776 + 250 = 2026. Is there anything that can be done to change this? According to Cal Thomas, yes, but change must begin on the individual level. Morality and a change of heart cannot be legislated. (Nor, quite frankly, would it be in modern-day America, but I digress.) Thomas summarizes the rise and fall of eight historic empires or superpowers, then ends by discussing America. Depending upon your knowledge of and interest in history, you might find his summaries either fairly dry or overly simplified. Nonetheless, it is important to know and learn from history, although as Thomas quotes from Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel, “The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history.” Indeed. For each of his examples (including our beloved America) follows the same loose pattern of the following stages:

The Age of Pioneers
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence

It doesn’t take much to figure out what stage America is currently in, especially when one looks at the characteristics of the stage of decadence:

Defensivess
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The welfare state
Weakening of religion

Check, check, check, check, check, check, and check.

I have long been saying the same thing as Cal Thomas, though in a much less eloquent manner. America is quickly deteriorating and following the same pattern as fallen empires of the past. Will people look back 400 years from now and study the former glory of the “American Empire” much as we look back upon the Roman Empire of the past?

After the 2020 election, I wrote a blog post that included the following:
History shows us again and again that when a society abandons family values, they fall. The Greek and Roman civilizations, for example, were once great on the earth but fell into decline. Dr. Carle Zimmerman (American sociologist, 1897-1983) identified eleven “symptoms of final decay” (18th slide) observed from both the Greek and Roman civilizations, and every one of them describes modern-day America. Why should we be so presumptuous as to believe our country will last when others as great or greater have fallen? Historian Arnold Toynbee said, “Out of twenty-one notable civilizations, nineteen perished not by conquest from without but by moral decay from within.” Take note, America. This is where we are.

So is it hopeless? Cal Thomas gives steps to follow in his final chapter under the section entitled, “There’s Still Time.” He gives good, solid advice, but I fear the people reading his book are those who are already doing these things. Frankly, I’m not nearly as optimistic as he comes across in this book that things can or will change (although, let’s be honest, he *has* to have a hopeful message or no one would want to read it). I think America is past its expiration, and this is well deserved. We’ve allowed such a terrible state of moral decay that we *should* be “dethroned” from our high status as the current world superpower.

I appreciate that Thomas writes this book from a Christian perspective, and he calls upon Christians to be more vocal about their faith and values. He calls upon us to be more persistent in prayer. “What appears that we like to do the least—pray—is what is most effective in achieving the ends we seek,” he says. All major American spiritual revivals began with a “concert of prayer.” So pray, Christians! Pray like you believe God will answer, because He will.

Our times, as well as the times of our nation, are in God’s hands, and that is a comforting thought. Thomas ends with this thought: “Ulimtately, though, Jesus said, ‘My kingdom is not of this world’ (John 18:36). Keep that at the forefront of your mind as you consider into which kingdom you intend to invest most of your thoughts, time, money, and efforts.” Indeed, no matter whether America has 5 more years or 500 more, the Christian has an eternal kingdom to look forward to, and an inheritance in heaven that will never perish or fade.

[Joseph · Rating 5 out of 5]

This short book by one of America's great syndicated columnists was a pleasure to read. I got through it in only one afternoon, but it would take most people at least two days to finish it. In the book, Thomas cites several examples of empires that reached their expiration dates-and why. He goes on to explain the things America is doing wrong, and some potential remedies. Overall, a very good book.

[Aidan Pretti · Rating 2 out of 5]

I expected this book to be a history book that compared the faults of historical empires to today. The historical writing behind it was pretty shaky (he cites the Bible as a source of historical knowledge), and he ends up ascribing the decline of most the empires to “moral decline” or “decadence”. Worse though, the latter part of this book abandoned any pretenses of being a history novel in favor of religious fervor. I did learn some neat bits of information about the various empires, but because I don’t see the rise of secular morality in America as the driver of it’s doom, I couldn’t get into this book. Then again, I don’t think I’m the intended audience.

[Ronald J. · Rating 4 out of 5]

Cal Thomas is worried: “The nation that I love is in danger of losing its greatness.” He gives us a thought experiment: “Just for fun, let’s say you have received advance knowledge from a reliable source that on July 4, 2026, the world will end.” He cites Sir John Glubb, a World War I veteran, career British soldier, and a scholar and author, writing twenty-one books and hundreds of articles. Glubb posits that the average age of a nation or empire’s greatness is 250 years. “This average,” he writes, “has not varied for 3,000 years.” Sir John found patterns, or stages, of the rise and fall of great nations: the age of pioneers, the age of conquests, the age of commerce, the age of affluence, the age of intellect, and finally the age of decadence. “In most cases, the entity in question does not simply disappear after 250 years but staggers on in a much less dynamic and influential state. they never return to their greatness.” Are we doomed to prove Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel’s famous line, “We learn from history that we do not learn from history.” Thomas warns us: “No nation can survive on inertia, on the sacrifices and investments of past generations.”

The book consists of a look at eight empires, all of which declined and lost their greatness: The Persian Empire; The Roman Empire; The Byzantine Empire; The Arab Empire; The Spanish Empire; The Ottoman Empire; The British Empire; and The Russian Empire. Is the USA next? There’s a chapter explaining each empire’s rise and fall, written concisely yet still interesting style. Of course, not all empires declined in 250 years, some took longer, but the point remains. He quotes the following from Edward Gibbon: “THE FIVE MARKS OF THE ROMAN DECAYING CULTURE: CONCERN WITH DISPLAYING AFFLUENCE INSTEAD OF BUILDING WEALTH; OBSESSION WITH SEX AND PERVERSIONS OF SEX; ART BECOMES FREAKISH AND SENSATIONALISTIC INSTEAD OF CREATIVE AND ORIGINAL; WIDENING DISPARITY BETWEEN VERY RICH AND VERY POOR; INCREASED DEMAND TO LIVE OFF THE STATE.” —Edward Gibbon, author of The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.

When Thomas turns to the USA, he cites two speeches by Alexandr Solzhenitsyn, “MEN HAVE FORGOTTEN GOD” and his commencement address at Harvard, both of which the elites and editorial writers hated. I believe both are excellent, and worth re-reading every so often as a reminder of what’s important. You may not agree with Thomas’s assessment of the indicators of America’s decline (abortion, family dissolution, etc.), but it will make you think about the direction our country is heading. Politicians cannot transform human nature, and our problems cannot be solved politically—only spiritually and morally. Dostoevsky drew from the French Revolution and its seeming hatred of the Church the lesson that “revolution must necessarily begin with atheism.” Thomas writes: “Whenever I hear the song ‘God Bless America’ sung at baseball games and patriotic events, I ask myself, Why should he?” It’s a good question, and this book will make you think about the possible answers.

[Perry · Rating 2 out of 5]

The downfall of America will be because we just are not good Christians? That's about all I got from this read. I agree we need more spirituality as a nation. But more dogma and religiousity?

[Kevin Keating · Rating 3 out of 5]

It was ok. I kinda liked brushing up on the decline of the major empires that sets the reason why he thinks America is on the decline. A little pessimistic even though it was published in 2020 it's kinda outdated because it was before COVID and BLM riots.

[Don · Rating 5 out of 5]

morality, stages, self over others

[Emily · Rating 4 out of 5]

Super duper not uplifting way to start 2026 😅 but sometimes truth hurts.

[Jeff · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a cautionary book that draws the comparison between America & the major empires down through time. Thomas uses a historians work on empires that came to the conclusion that every empire has basically only lasted 250 years. This premise puts the USA close to that end date.

The author leads us along many of the empires that we studied in school. Each one had a pattern of success to decadence. Some empires limped along past the 250 line, but they were never what they used to be.

There are obvious lessons to be learned. Virtue is a redeeming point not just for an individual but for a nation also.

A good book if you like some history & are concerned with the direction of our country.

[Cwinter · Rating 5 out of 5]

eye opening book about the state of our United States. We all need to be influencing those around us since our nation needs saved morally and spiritually. Answer is not politics.

[Jim Wesberry · Rating 4 out of 5]

IS THIS WARNING TOO LATE?

Has the USA already collapsed? If not quite yet there can be little doubt that the end is near based upon the quite obvious, but always ignored, facts and histories revealed in this prophetic book. The author feels that it is not yet too late and concludes with hopeful advice. He is more optimistic than I. But God bless him and all that make a last attempt to save the USA.

[Ietrio · Rating 1 out of 5]

Union implies a free choice. Union means the ability to break out of the Union. The Union has expired with Lincoln. Since that day, it is a Princely State, and the clans are all on TV: the Roosevelts, the Kennedys, the Bushes, the Clintons. Thomas is just another useful idiot for the system, trying to sell a fairy tale.

[Regan Leigh · Rating 4 out of 5]

Stating the obvious

While not quite an “intellectual” read, author makes very clear the repercussions of the abandonment of Christian morality, unsustainable spending and debt, and a corrupt press corps on the short future of our nation.

[Lee · Rating 2 out of 5]

The history lesson was interesting. Definitely not anything I remember learning about, in detail, in school. Some of the points were broad and ambiguous. What I did not like was how the authors views felt very politically slanted and there was an overwhelming amount of preaching the bible.

[Sandra Hill · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent and heart wrenching.

This is not a fun book to read but it is truth. America lives in the age of decadence. Only repentance and turning to the sovereign God is the only hope for a country headed down the path of empires before us.

[Shanae · Rating 2 out of 5]

The book was interesting, especially at first. I liked the facts about the various empires--Persian, Ottoman, Roman, Russian, Spanish, and British. I don't like his interjections of opinions and the last 2 chapters are so needlessly opinionated that it kinda made me dislike the rest of the book.

[Susan Kissel · Rating 1 out of 5]

There’s so many flaws in his arguments and so much bigoted language. I appreciate his lack of partisanship in the US but his views are so extreme.

[Nolan · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author posits that, while its not an iron-clad rule, most empires come and go over an approximate 250-year period Those empires are marked by specific phases. He uses previous empires to demonstrate his perspective. I learned more about the Persians and the Meads than I ever thought I didn’t know. Naturally, he looks at such empires as the Roman one, the Byzantine one, the Ottoman empire in Turkey and others. Indeed, he gives you a brief arguably slightly oversimplified history of the Persian, the Roman, the Byzantine, the Arab empire, the Spanish empire, the Ottoman empire, the British empire, and the Russian empire.

These nations didn’t just die like someone turned out the lights. Many of them staggered onto the ash heap of history over many years. But they were never again what they had once been.

All of these have their traceable datapoints through which they passed on the way to failure. Thomas says the United States is burning through its last phase before collapse. So, what are the phases through which these empires go?

• The Pioneer Phase
• The age of Conquests
• The Age of Commerce
• The Age of Affluence
• The Age of Intellect
• The Age of Decadence

So, assuming the United States is well ensconced in the age of decadence, what are some of its characteristics?

• Defensiveness
• Pessimism
• Materialism
• Frivolity
• Loose or nonexistent borders
• Increasing dependence on government giveaways
• A pronounced weakening of faith and religion.

While Thomas clearly worries about what feels like our ongoing slide into the final phase, he insists that individuals and families can take steps to turn things around. Christians must be bolder in standing against cultural currents and in lovingly and without threat or menace expressing their faith. In short, he says it’s not quite time to give up completely, but things look grimmer the longer we put off making those individual, family, and societal changes that will matter.

[Rodney Harvill · Rating 3 out of 5]

In this book, Cal Thomas builds on prior work done by Sir John Glubb, a career British soldier who had trained and led what would become Jordan’s army, who led it in battle against the Israelis in Israel’s Independence War. It turns out that Sir Glubb was also a scholar and author. One of his numerous books, The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival, inspired the book I am reviewing. Based on a study of the history of the past 3,000 years, Sir Glubb concluded that the average age of a nation’s or empire’s greatness is 250 years and also noted a consistent pattern in the rise and fall of great nations:

• Age of pioneers
• Age of conquests
• Age of commerce
• Age of affluence
• Age of intellect
• Age of decadence

Based on this average age, Cal Thomas posits an expiration date of July 4, 2026 for the U.S. He follows this up with a high-level discussion of the history of the following nations/empires, analyzing the different “ages” in their history as well as any anomalies:

• Persian Empire
• Roman Empire
• Byzantine Empire
• Arab Empire
• Spanish Empire
• Ottoman Empire
• British Empire
• Russian Empire

He follows up with a high-level discussion of American history and ends the book with some Appendices that include quotes from Alexander Solzhenitsyn that were directed at American audiences as a warning of trouble down the road and were largely ignored.

With that summary complete, I will proceed on to my analysis of the book. First of all, I feel compelled to contrast Sir Glub’s pattern with Lord Tytler’s eight stages of a democracy, also know as the democracy cycle, which represent stages in the life cycle of a democratic system of government, from birth to death. Sir John’s pattern addresses the greatness of an empire, regardless of its system of government. For example, Rome’s period of greatness started under a republican system of government and ended with autocratic rule by an emperor who maintained a façade of republican government to avoid being called a king, which was important given early Rome’s bad history with kings.

Second, the period of greatness does not necessarily correlate with the lifespan of the nation/empire. Yes, this was more or less true of the Persian Empire, whose age of decadence ended with its conquest by Alexander the Great. In contrast, the Byzantine empire limped along for centuries as a shell of its former self after the Arab invasions that stripped it of North Africa, the Iberian Peninsula and the Levant.

Finally, 250 years is an average. Rome’s age of greatness lasted for centuries. So, the end of America’s greatness later this decade is not a foregone conclusion. Even so, although I consider Cal Thomas’ analysis to be simplistic, I consider it unwise to ignore him. After all, we are in a period of decadence and probably have been since the Baby Boomers came onto the scene. While I am picking on the Boomers, I am also condemning my own generation, Gen X, because we haven’t really done anything to stem that tide of decadence. Ditto for the Millennials and Gen Z. We have all contributed to our nation’s decadent condition and will all share responsibility when the bill comes due, an event I dread but increasingly see as inevitable as the housing crash toward the end of the George W. Bush administration. As the finance kings said, as long as the music plays, you dance. When the music stopped, they found out just how many chairs were missing. And so will we.

[Michael Batchelor · Rating 4 out of 5]

Examination of decline and call to action

Thomas writes from an unashamedly Christian perspective. If that offends you, look elsewhere. If you're open to independent thought, there's much here to stimulate your thinking. It's more than simply right wing echo chamber fodder.

The text itself is an easy read.

Thomas's overview of various past empires is not meant to be, and shouldn't be expected to be, a scholarly work. The man is, after all, a political columnist instead of an academic historian. But his examples do all come from recognized publications and he footnotes them well. If you merely want a good overview of the history of civilizations then reading his overviews and following his footnotes will serve you well.

The final chapters are a call to action for fellow Christians. He's clear and articulate in his work. And his admonitions are worthy of consideration for both Christians and Secularist alike to consider.

[Rodney Hall · Rating 4 out of 5]

I had the honor of meeting Cal Thomas many years ago while I was in college. He was one of my early influences related to culture and conservatism. In “America’s Expiration Date,” Thomas looks at the rise and fall of some of the world’s greatest empires as well as some more recent regional examples of poor fiscal and moral policy. It is a precautionary tale of where we are headed if we fail to learn from history. Other reviewers have complained about the lack of solutions, yet to say there are none is erroneous. Thomas makes it clear that the only way to hold onto the blessings of liberty is to return to the values that made them possible in the first place. This is incumbent on individuals and social institutions NOT the government. The government will always be a reflection of the people it governs. “America’s Expiration Date “ Is an interesting read and solid primer for anyone wanting to get their feet wet in the socio-political lessons of history.

[Kristina · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book chronicles the history of great empires that have fallen, comparing them to the trajectory to the United States. I enjoyed learning more about the history of the civilizations featured, but felt the correlations drawn were weak and could have been developed more. There was an emphasis on the country needing a revival, which I agree with wholeheartedly. I agree that things could drastically improve if more people turned to Jesus and lived true Christian lives, but I don't see that being realistic for majority of the increasingly secular county. Jesus can work miracles, however. I wish this book was longer to further expand upon the ideas presented. It was interesting, even though I did not agree with some of the points mentioned and felt the author was leaning towards a detrimental form of Christian thinking with some of his viewpoints.

[Sue · Rating 4 out of 5]

Think of the great empires of the world that now are only remembered on pages of history books. These ancient and almost current histories have much to teach and remember if only the present "empires" would take a lesson. Unfortunately, history repeats itself. I took notes on these empires, looking up more information on the web as I read along: the Persian Empire, the Roman Empire, the Byzantine Empire, down to the Russian Empire to present day United States Empire, so to speak. I found particularly interesting the Arab Empire, the Ottoman Empire, and the Russian Empire. The prophetic voice of Alexandr Solzhenitsyn is heard in the last two appendices, two speeches he gave here in the United States, and his voice speaks to our generation, to our nation's sinking with insight and warnings. This 184 page book packs in historical lessons Americans should heed.

[Michael Laflamme · Rating 3 out of 5]

A good meditation for believers.

This is a good starting point for a critical assessment of our nation's values. Certainly Christian culture is the antidote for what ails us, but beyond that is the realization that American conservatives themselves are not always friendly to faith. We have to persuade many citizens that Jesus belongs in the bedrooms, bars and voting booths of America. This we must do without losing the Christians who already know this. Our national love of independence can be both blessing and curse.

[Inga · Rating 5 out of 5]

"America's Expiration Date" is a thought-provoking examination of the rise and fall of great empires throughout history and how those patterns may apply to the United States today. The author draws parallels between past civilizations and America’s current challenges, raising tough questions about morality, politics, and national direction. While some points may feel sobering, the book ultimately serves as both a warning and a call for reflection on the choices that will shape the nation’s future.

[LAMONT D · Rating 4 out of 5]

I LIKE A BOOK THAT IS EASY TO READ, THAT I LEARN SOMETHING NEW, IS HISTORICAL IN NATURE AND YET CONTAINS A CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE. CAL THOMAS IS ONE OF MY FAVORITE JOURNALISTS SO HE GETS HIGH MARKS JUST FOR HIS PERSPECTIVE ON LIFE AND HOW HE SEES THE WORLD THAT WE LIVE IN. CERTAINLY WE CAN LEARN FROM THE PAST, BUT WILL WE SEE OUR GREAT COUNTRY FALL BY THE WAYSIDE BECAUSE OF THE REASONS HE LAYS OUT IN THE BOOK? THE MORE IMPORTANT CHALLENGE IS WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT AS INDIVIDUAL PEOPLE.

[Marianne Perry · Rating 4 out of 5]

Thought provoking. “The one thing you cannot change is what is inside any and every person: their human nature.”

“When hearts are changed, attitudes are changed, and the result is a changed nation. It never works from the top down but always from the bottom up-or more precisely, from the inside out.”

And so the change rests inside each and all is us.

[Nolan · Rating 1 out of 5]

Filled with boomerisms and ahistorical nonsense, this book would have needed to be at least 300 pages longer to be at all reflective of its intended purpose. The author interjects the material with cameos of people throughout history, but chose to present his own hot takes, rather than historically relevant information.

[Barbara · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a revealing examination of former democracies and the somewhat common path they traveled that contributed to their demise. The author is sounding a wake-up call to America. We need to quit overspending, enjoying decadence, and again find some of the common values that used to hold our society together.