Innovation has been the buzzword with leaders of developing nations in the past couple of decades. They see it as the magic wand that could catapult them from a lower-income, lower-technology nation to a richer, more prosperous one. A lot of this belief has its roots in the creative technologies of the mid-1990s in Silicon Valley, California. Innovations, such as the World Wide Web, the Mosaic internet browser, and VoIP/communication technologies, brought the immense power of the internet, improving the daily lives of the average citizen. Even politicians could see how inventions such as email, e-commerce, search engine, the cell phone, and social media revolutionized societies across the world. It inspired China, Brazil, and India to have their own Silicon Valley to spur innovation. If a nation creates its own Silicon Valley, would innovation always follow? What are the conditions, environment, and incentives that are necessary to foster innovation? Author Matt Ridley tries to answer these questions in this book. He does it by looking at the history of innovation, its nature, its successes, failures and frauds, its impediments, its economics, etc. He has taken a non-academic, non-didactic approach to this exposition, making the book educational.
Ridley begins with a working definition by characterizing Innovation as the act of discovering ways to rearrange the world in useful forms that are unlikely to arise by chance. When people are rather prosperous, free to think, trade with each other, experiment and speculate, we create conditions for innovation. So, liberal economies, with their free-roving experimental opportunities, do well with innovation. Yet, no economist or social scientist can quite explain why, when, and where innovation happens. In Ridley’s view, innovation is a gradual and evolutionary process. Serendipity still plays a big part. It is an urban myth that innovation is the work of lonely, autistic geniuses, toiling away in their father’s garage. There is no accepted best way to encourage innovation. But we can still create conditions for it. Ridley believes deregulation and freedom for the people are key elements. He does not believe in directing research, intellectual property rights, or subsidizing science. One key feature of innovation is we underestimate its impact in the long run but overestimate it in the short run. For all the lip service we pay to it, innovation is often unpopular. If not useful to us, we focus on its dire consequences than the good ones. People with vested interests in the status quo throw obstacles in the way and impede its progress. In this book, Ridley uses examples from the worlds of energy, public health, transport, food, low technology, computers, and communication to argue his case.
Each chapter covers one field of activity. It uses examples from that field to highlight innovators’ work in history to support the author’s contentions. As one would expect, Thomas Edison, Graham Bell, Marconi, James Watt, and the Wright brothers find their pride of place in these discussions. We also learn about obscure names like Lady Mary Pierrepoint, who was an early champion of viral inoculation in 18th century London during the smallpox epidemic. She did not invent inoculation, but she strove to popularize and spread the practice. Ridley uses her example to make his point that innovation is gradual and often begins with the ordinary people, before the elite take the credit. It is appropriate to remember her in these days of opposition to vaccination against Covid-19. Ridley says the path of innovation is not smooth, with only successes and good intentions. The book has a chapter on fakes and frauds in the name of innovation. It discusses the Silicon Valley company Theranos and Elon Musk’s Hyperloop idea. Ridley makes insightful comments about why Theranos got unraveled and why he has doubts about Hyperloop delivering what it promises to customers. Though the ideas behind Theranos were innovative, the core technologies to realize them were yet to be developed. Hyperloop is a two-century old idea repackaged for modern transportation. Ridley lists several technological and land issues as Hyperloop’s toughest problems. They have not tackled these issues. A central rule of innovation is that the toughest issue needs to be tackled first, in case it’s unsolvable. Both Theranos and Hyperloop break this rule and hence the author’s misgivings.
I had always imagined that intellectual property rights are necessary to spur innovation. Still, I found Ridley’s arguments about the disservice that intellectual property rights (IPR) do to impede innovation thought-provoking. Innovation is a gradual and evolutionary process. But popular imagination sees it as a revolution, a breakthrough and instant enlightenment. Ridley believes the cause for this misconception lies in human nature and IPR. Our society sees history as the product of outstanding men, women, and geniuses. We know it to be untrue of history and of innovation. The inventor likes to sell his or her innovation as sudden, world-changing, and the result of his years of struggle and insight. He has no interest in crediting the predecessors or rivals. Journalists and biographers also have their own vested interests in promoting this view. Nationalism compounds the problem even further. Sometimes, the inventor draws the patent in too broad a span to protect his / her market and deter further innovation.
Ridley gives examples from the book publishing, film-making and music industry to show that copyright laws have contributed little to encourage investment and innovation. As for patents, their purpose is to encourage people to innovate. It allows them a monopoly profit from the patent for a limited period, provided they disclose the details of their invention. However, inventors end up wasting the best years of their lives in court defending their patents. Watt, Morse, Marconi, and the Wright brothers are excellent examples. Often, inventors pursue futile vendettas against rivals who deserve some credit. There is no evidence that areas unprotected by patents produce less innovation. Organizational inventions such as franchising and just-in-time inventory management happened in companies unpatented. Others copied them with enthusiasm, but it didn’t stop companies from inventing more. Patents raise the costs of goods and inventors use them to keep competition at bay. The author concludes that intellectual property rights are a significant drag on innovation and growth, the very opposite of IP law’s stated purpose. They are now a hindrance, not a help to modern innovation.
The last chapter, titled ‘An Innovation Famine’, disappointed and confused me. It is a curious mixture of contradictory arguments and defeatism in contrast to the author’s usual sunny optimism. Ridley had argued earlier in the book that state sponsored innovation is possible, but private enterprise does it better. In this chapter, he says it is likely that China will innovate on a grander scale and faster than anywhere else in the coming few decades. The reason is the Chinese entrepreneur is free of petty bureaucratic rules and delays. He is free to experiment so long as he does not annoy the Communist Party. The speed with which China executes projects is given as evidence of the signs of an impending innovation deluge. Some examples are building bridges and roads, high-speed rail, adopting digital payment systems, online education, and financial services. Ridley has similar hopes for India and Brazil. He believes India’s innovation is speeding up, with the use of technologies like biometric identification, usage of fingerprints and irises, for welfare payments and banking. According to him, India’s drug industry is speeding from generics to innovative medicines. Ridley does not back up these assertions with examples, as he does in the earlier chapters. The chapter ends with pessimism about the decline of the West. He cites the 9-9-6 (9 am to 9 pm, 6 days working week) ethos of China as a positive. In contrast, the West is grappling with bureaucracy and superstition, blocking innovation. Regulators, lawyers, consultants and rent seekers suck the vital juices from entrepreneurial enterprises in the West. Central banks look down their noses at innovations like cryptocurrencies and digital fin-tech.
The examples Ridley cites in China are a by-product of centralized governance. It reads almost as though aspects of dictatorship have impressed Ridley, a libertarian. If China, India, and Brazil are taking over the mantle of innovation, then there was no greater opportunity for them to showcase it than in the year 2020. Covid-19 ravaged the world. China and India could have shown their scientific and technological prowess by developing a reliable vaccine that is affordable for the entire world and captured the world’s imagination. China developed two vaccines and India one. Both the Chinese vaccines have dubious efficacy and there are doubts on whether China used its clout in the WHO to get them approved. The WHO has still not approved India’s own vaccine, called Covaxin. India exported the vaccine to Brazil, but corruption scandals and doubts about the data on its Phase 3 trials have dogged the deal. ‘Nature’ magazine reported that Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine is safe and effective. But the Russian Health Ministry okayed it in August 2020, more than a month before its Phase 1 and 2 trial results got published. This was before its Phase 3 trial had even begun! It is only the vaccines from the Western countries which have proven effective and legitimate, despite all the criticism of its bureaucracy, declining standards and anti-Vax superstitions.
I have misgivings about the author’s rosy prognosis on innovation in China in the future. One year after this book’s publication, we see the Chinese state cracking down on their big tech companies. The three biggest online educational services and the biggest financial and e-commerce services have got the axe from the Chinese state, curtailing their freedom to operate. It is not clear why they did it, but the speculation varies from the three-child policy to security concerns to challenges to the Communist party. The picture is not too rosy in India either. Despite paying lip-service to democracy and freedom, dissent and protests acutely scare the Hindu-nationalist government. This has resulted in greater centralization of governance, surveillance, and restrictions on press and intellectual freedoms. India has at least one silver lining though, because it is possible to dislodge the ruling party through polls and usher in a more humane and liberal regime. China does not seem to have this option with its one-party rule.
The book has examples in plenty and it helps to get a good grasp of the author’s exposition of his viewpoints. It makes the book accessible to the general reader. I found it enjoyable reading and would recommend it..