Why traditional forecasting so often fail? How to improve the effectiveness of early warning system?
Is it possible to predict the discontinuity and the emergence of a new social pattern?
Traditional methods of prediction are limited usually large margins of error. The more complex the system, the faster the changes, the longer perspective the analysis the greater the risk of incorrect conclusions.
Proposed by Day and Schoemaker solution is located somewhere between forecasting and foresight, drawing one and the other. Pherpieral vision is both the system and the way of thinking. The entire process consists of five interlocking, highly iterative stages: Scoping, Scanning, Interpreting (the problem is not lack of information, but their effective pre-selection, selection and interpretation of information), Probing, Feedback (including adjusting).
The impression that I got after reading this book is contained in one word: "honesty". The authors presented the problem honestly and fairly interpret its solution. No unnecessary fireworks and excessive optimism. An additional point for authors for posting on the end of the book of information about publications expansion and deepening of topics pherpipheral vision.
Although the book is addressed primarily to business practitioners, theorists of forecasts and foresight will not be disappointed.