The Long Red Thread: How Democratic Dominance Gave Way to Republican Advantage in US House Elections

by Kyle Kondik

An incisive study that shows how Republicans transformed the US House of Representatives into a consistent GOP stronghold―with or without a majority. Long-term Democratic dominance in the US House of Representatives gave way to a Republican electoral advantage and frequently held majority following the GOP takeover in 1994. Republicans haven’t always held the majority in recent decades, but nationalization, partisan realignment, and the gerrymandering of House seats have contributed to a political climate in which they've had an edge more often than not for nearly thirty years. The Long Red Thread examines each House election cycle from 1964 to 2020, surveying academic and journalistic literature to identify key trends and takeaways from more than a half-century of US House election results in order to predict what Americans can expect to see in the future.

160 pages, Paperback

Published October 26, 2021

Reviews

[Stephen Morrissey · Rating 4 out of 5]

Under the US Constitution, the House of Representatives was intended to be the body of government closest to the people, with members from all across the country based on population, elected every two years, and subject to the changing tides of politics. Kyle Kondik delivers an excellent history of House election cycles since the 1960s, a pivotal moment in American politics generally and the House specifically, as Democrats power as a national party waned, the Republicans ascended to the favorite among white, rural voters, and polarization increased from coast to coast.

While the obvious geographic and political trends ae covered - Democrats losing ground in the Greater South; the Republicans gaining an edge in both rural districts and redistricting processes in states like North Carolina - the book also charts the volatility of the House in recent years, a sign of an American electorate constantly switching between "hope and change" and "fear and demagoguery." One of the many fascinating nuggets unearthed by Kondik is how polarized House districts have become: in the 1960s and even though the 1990s, there were dozens of districts that voted for one party for president, and a different for their House member. Now, that number has cascaded down to a mere 17, indicating a hardening of the electorate and districts that now consistently act as trackers for the national political mood.

Gerrymandering is covered in quite some depth, and even some of its surprises unearthed. Gerrymanders are snapshots, not long-term forecasts, and therefore tend to be wrong some times (creating the loveable term "dummymander"). Kondik highlights many examples, with one being an Illinois redistricting where Illinois Democrats tried t capture conservative downstate districts (unsuccessfully), but drew districts then safely Republican that flipped to the Democrats as the suburbs became more Democratic.

One of the frustrating things about House elections is that there are often muddled messages after the election of 435 representatives. In 1994, Democrats were punished severely for trying to deliver on (popular) campaign promises, and were more badly beaten in 2010 when they did actually deliver! In 2022, it is likely that Republicans will regain the House; while many may prognosticate on what that means, it should not be lost that such a result is consistent with history and perhaps less reflective of the people given gerrymanders, polarization, and COVID exhaustion.

[Emily · Rating 4 out of 5]

This book was not my favorite, but it did a good job of explaining gerrymandering and reapportionment.