China's Grand Strategy and Australia's Future in the New Global Order

by Geoff Raby

Disruption has blown the old world apart. The rise of China, Trump's America First policies, division within Europe and successful defiance by authoritarian states are affecting the shape of the emerging new order. Human rights, rule of law, free media and longstanding global institutions all seem set to be weakened. Autocracies are exercising greater control over world affairs. Australia will need to engage heightened levels of diplomacy to forge relations with countries of opposing principles. It will need to be agile in pursuing a realistic foreign policy agenda. China's Grand Strategy and Australia's Future in the New Global Order contains answers for how Australia must position itself for this possibly dystopian future.

Genres: China, Nonfiction, Politics, Australia, International Relations, Economics, Asia

232 pages, Paperback

Published November 3, 2020

Reviews

[Lloyd Downey · Rating 5 out of 5]

A friend mused recently at a dinner party that a few years ago everything seemed to be fine with Chine: we welcomed their students and their tourists...they were our greatest trading partner, they were investing in Australia etc. And now....just months later.... everything seemed to have gone sour; they are restricting our imports, we have condemned China over human rights and over Hong Kong, and their expansionism in the South China Sea, and requested/demanded an investigation into the outbreak of the Covid 19 virus, and demanded an apology over a doctored facebook page.
So this up-to-date, well informed, and balanced book by Geoff Raby comes at a good time as far as my friend and I are concerned. I have recommended that he read it because my summation of the wealth of detail is somewhat lacking.
Raby, enjoyed a good reputation within DFAT circles as far as I could ascertain and I crossed paths with him a few times in my own professional work and was impressed. He also has good credentials having been ambassador in China and, probably more important, he served there as First Secretary from 1986. I think as First Secretary one is low enough in the diplomatic pecking oder to be able to get a real feel for the country and its people..and more importantly to learn the language. Over the period 1986 to the present, Raby has been able to observe, first hand the dramatic transformation of Beijing ...and China from the levels of third world standards of living to those of a modern advanced economy. And, indeed, an economy on the verge of being a super power. Depending on how one cuts it, China is already the largest world economy on a purchasing power parity basis and by 2030 will probably surpass the USA on a nominal dollar basis. The way the USA is going at the moment in terms of managing the Corona Virus and political turmoil might mean that China outgrows them earlier.
Raby, sensibly approaches his topic from the Chinese perspective. They tend to see the world as threatening; surrounded on all sides by neighbours who are not allies (with the possible exception of Pakistan) and with some of whom they have actually been to war in recent times....India, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Russia. He points out that within the space of 20 years, China has become very dependant upon imports of both oil and iron ore and through this dependancy it is vulnerable to US pressure on shipping lanes. This vulnerability is a significant factor in the current Belt and Roads initiative to link up with new allies or, at least, have a degree of alternative access to raw materials.
There is a nice throw-away line there: Just because you are paranoid doesn't mean that you're not being followed. And we have the interesting scenario of China suddenly finding itself a superpower ...landing spacecraft on the other side of the moon, nuclear armed, with long memories of being humiliated at the hands of western (and Japanese) colonial powers and even longer memories of being the world's major super-power for thousands of years. There seem to be some issues of coming to grips with all this power. And power now, rests very firmly in the hands of the Communist Party and any moves to change this will be resisted mightily.
Against this background, Australia is viewed, pretty much as a puppet client of the USA......not helped by Scott Morrison (Prime Minister) being awarded one of the US Military's highest honours by Donald Trump: The Legion of Merit in December 2020. And not helped by a number of hamfisted diplomatic blunders by the Morrison Govt: Leading the charge on demanding an investigation into the origins of the Corona virus; Leading the charge (after the USA) on banning Huawei; demanding an apology from China for a doctored facebook page, raiding local academics with links to the Chinese embassy. (I wonder how Raby would feel if his Chinese friends were raided because he was part of the Australian Embassy in Beijing and was trying to establish "contacts" in the Chinese establishment. I mean, that's what diplomats do).
He touches on the unhealthy militarisation of Australia (led by Morrison with getting the Military to take over Border Protection) and the unhealthy hysteria about security...driven by ASIO, ASIS and the rest of the defence/security establishment. After all, they benefit by security scares.....bigger budgets, more staff, more promotions, more overseas trips, more importance in domestic affairs etc. So they have a vested interest in talking-up the dangers.....and hiding the evidence under the cloak of secrecy. Clearly they were wrong about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. I have even less faith in their calls now. But they are fuelling the anti Chinese fires in Australia.
Raby chooses his words carefully but essentially makes the point that Australia has to come to grips with the fact that the world order is changing and we need to recalibrate. We've already had a couple of ex prime ministers......Fraser, Whitlam, Keating, (from opposite sides of the political spectrum) saying that we should no longer be "going all the way with the USA" ...that the ANZUS alliance needed re-thinking and we could no longer rely on the USA to bail us out if we got into a "spot of bother". Certainly, they left us isolated with East Timor. He constantly refers back to the refrain (attributed to Thucydides with the Athenians responding to the Melians (who wanted to remain neutral in the war with Sparta).."the standard of justice depends on the equality of power to compel and that … the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept". I don't think Raby actually quotes it exactly like this ...but the concept is the same. Unfortunately, that leaves Australia having to "accept what we have to accept"......either from the Americans or from China. But it is becoming increasingly obvious that being America's "Deputy Sheriff" is not a great long term (or even short term) strategy for Australia.
A couple of "unforced errors": Figures 5. and 6. seem to have scrambled the key descriptions (eg Fig 6. 2nd line reading "China's iron ore imports as a percentage of domestic oil consumption" ..when it should be "as a percentage of domestic ORE consumption" and elsewhere (p148) he says that India's exports to Europe in 2018, (about $62 Billion from Fig 13.) were 75% higher than their exports to China (about $16 Billion from Fig. 11)...well that looks like 290% higher to me. Ah well easy to make slips like this in the editing ...though Raby presided over the East Asia Economic Unit in DFAT that produced some really impressive work, as I recall, in the early 1990's.....and would not have tolerated errors of this sort by his staff.
Raby looks closely at the role that India may play in future relations with China (and Australia)...but, as I read it he thinks that it is "wishful thinking" to think that India will strongly align itself with the USA in an anti-China Coalition.
What's Raby's solution? Well, it IS a bit weak, I think. It's that we start by recognising that for the first time in our (modern) history, we are alone in the world. Therefore we should be seeking coalitions with other countries that seek order and stability in east Asia ......he doesn't actually suggest who these might be but Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Japan might come to mind. He does make the strong point that we need to maintain a strong defence and increase our expenditure on cultural diplomacy......well he would say that wouldn't he? But I think he's right and he has a significant section of the book devoted to the importance of "soft power"...international credibility....which China lacks. Australia has it but are rapidly squandering our soft power with the Morrison government's foot dragging on climate change issues.
Overall, an excellent and timely book which should be read by all our political representatives and I've certainly recommended to a number of friends....including my dinner party "muser". I give it 5 stars.

[Robert · Rating 5 out of 5]

My uncle was a C suite executive at a major Australian retailer for over a decade. Each year his company would pay Raby to sit down with him for a few hours and update him on China.

Despite the clunky title the book Raby has produced is clearly written, with unambiguous thesis statements leading each of the chapters. The book does an excellent job of contextualising and laying out key events in the Sino-Australian relationship over the last two decades. There's a lot that you have probably missed that is important.

If you're after an insider's guide to Australia's relationship with China that cuts against the 2020 conventional wisdom you can't go wrong here.

[Anne Hamilton · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book helps clear away the fog of confusion and uninformed opinion that is rife about China. As Raby says, the view from Beijing is very different from the view from Washington or Canberra.

Raby begins with a story about meeting Malcolm Fraser. As a minister for the army in the Liberal government in power during the Vietnam conflict, he was loathed by the anti-war student movement. Yet, when Raby chatted with him late in his life, he seemed to have become even more anti-war and anti-US than the most rabid of demonstrators of a former era. Fraser had apparently arrived at the view that the US was a country destined for war, driven by its military-industrial complex's insatiable appetite for conflict and the corruption of US politics which that involved. (p xii) (Similar sentiments to Play by the Rules)

China is the third-largest country in area and must defend 22000 km of border shared with 14 other nations. (p 8) It has sought a strategic edge through the use of "sharp" power (economic). (p9) It has the world's largest number of diplomatic missions. (p10) (This is in contrast to the US, who as pointed out in Play by the Rules have not only left many of the highest posts in embassies vacant for years, but have placed their ambassadors under the jurisdiction of the regional military high command.) Concern is mounting that the US and China may already be caught in "Thucydides' Trap", referring to the attack of the dominant Greek power, Sparta, on the ascendant Greek power, Athens, in order to prevent its rise. (p16) Kevin Rudd has argued that Chinese leadership views the US approach to it as the "five tos": to contain China, to isolate China, to diminish China, to internally divide China and to sabotage China's leadership. (p30) "Justice is only found between equals in power; as to the rest, the strong do as they will and the weak suffer as they must": the Athenian ambassadors to the citizens of Melos. (p40) The threat of Islamic terrorism has been directed at the majority Han population. There was a series of terrorist incidents in 2014, including one in Tiananmen Square which struck at the heart of Beijing's sense of security. (p51) Herbert Hoover worked at the mines in Tangshan in Hebei Province; before that, he worked in Coolgardie. (p80)

[Tim · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the things I find so fascinating about China is the utter complexities of it domestically and internationally. Almost everyone has an uninformed opinion on China these days. If you want to elevate yourself from this group, this book is an excellent starting point.

[Ron Brown · Rating 4 out of 5]

I bought this book in July 2021, unfortunately it got lost on my bookshelves. It is a good read and Raby is one of my favourite Sinologists. I often hear him on the ABC Saturday Extra program. However, because of changes and developments some aspects of Raby’s writing are outdated. Comments on COVID and Taiwan are two areas.
Rabey has a most informed view of China. I found many aspects of his descriptions of China insightful and relevant to much that is happening. His account of China’s inability to use soft power and its continued use of wolf warrior diplomacy has achieved little. As Raby says China has few friends, save for Pakistan and North Korea. He also argues that China has little interest in gaining hegemonic control over East Asia other than to make its borders secure.
As he says great powers do what they want, minor powers do what they can. Australia has fallen into the trap of contesting China. Our intelligence and military advisors have had the ear of the government. Most of China’s near neighbours, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand have managed their relationship carefully without too much conflict.
From the day Xi Jinping addressed the Australian parliament in November 2014 till today something terribly wrong has happened in the two countries relationship. How could it have been handled differently. I believe Australia needed to be more attuned to China’s world view. We needed to stand our ground and look after our own interests and not be subservient to China but recognise its importance in the economic make-up of Australia. We have moved too close to America and its competition with China could lead to devastating consequences.
This is an important book for those wanting an informed view of our relationship and where it will head.

[Ned Cheston · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a fantastic book for anyone interested in international relations, foreign policy and the like. It is highly informative but at no point too dense to read or understand. It’s quite short but I enjoyed the length.

I dare say that, if it doesn’t already, this book should form a compulsory part of international politics syllabus at Australian universities. It regularly relies on IR theory to put real world developments into context, but never in a way that makes it read like a textbook.

The first half considers China’s rise but adopts a different approach to doom-and-gloom sentiment, of which the rest of the literature is replete. Raby’s insights on how China’s focus on hard power actually detracts from its soft power are particularly interesting. The second half talks about how Australia should react to China’s continued rise. Raby’s rationalism and expertise on matters pertaining to China shine through.


Australia-China relations seem to be recurrently news-worthy of late. If anyone is looking for a summary of why this might be the case, reading this is a good start.

[Will Greenland · Rating 4 out of 5]

An insightful look at the increasingly fraught China-Australia relationship. Raby obviously has an incredible depth of knowledge and experience with the subject. Unfortunately, for me at least, I may have missed some of the subtleties of his argument which left it feeling repetitive in parts. Definitely a good book to have on the bookshelf nonetheless.

[Samantha · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the best books I have read this year and a must read for anyone to have an opinion on current Australia/China relations. Raby is an excellent writer and succinctly explains from a Western perspective (and notably someone who has recently been immersed in Chinese diplomatic and business circles for a long period of time) how China sees itself in the current geo-political environment. He provides detailed background to China and Australia's economic relationships including excellent graphs (although on this note it would have been good to see more US-China economic analysis for perspective) and many case examples such as a succinct history of iron-ore trade between the two countries. He also gives an excellent summary of diplomatic relations between the two countries since China's opening up.

Raby asks the reader to consider viewing China's recent economic, diplomatic and soft-power strategies from their geographic, historical, economic and political perspective. Such an understanding enables one to realise the short-comings of recent diplomatic actions undertaken by Australia and that a more productive relationship may emerge from an engagement rather than containment approach (also notably adopted by the US in the last decade). Raby also presents a raft of strategies to move Australia away from it's US-engaged centric view of international order to the emerging new world order where Australia could assume a leading role in Asia-Pacific engagement.

It is a shame that the China-Australia debate is now becoming so polarised, however I see this unfortunately as a function of the politicisation of diplomacy and international relations in recent years. Let's hope that Raby's book cuts through to some level of diplomacy somewhere and we can remove identity politics from international relations and, as the book illustrates, Australia can have a leading role in regional diplomacy as now is the best chance to take the lead.

[Johnny · Rating 5 out of 5]

Reading the book has exposed me to a different point of view when it comes to the current foreign relations debate on what Australia should do about a more assertive Peoples Republic of China. Raby, Australia's former ambassador to the PRC, lays out and explains the realist school of thought that had dominated Australian dealings with China during the Hawke/Keating years and contrasts that to todays stance where the country unthinkingly backs the US Trump administration and their limp wristed attempts at containment. He attributes this somewhat to the cuts made to the diplomatic service under the current coalition government, but also suggests that foreign policy now is being dictated by Australia's domestic intelligence, security and defence apparatus where previously the diplomatic corps and business lobby would have had a much greater say.
Rabys book outlines the argument that Australia needs to be more flexible with its diplomacy. Courting like mined countries when it can, and working with less palatable ones when necessary; putting a greater emphasis on practical solutions and dialogue over ideology. Australia should work to build coalitions throughout the Asia Pacific region to establish diplomatic, business and security norms so that disputes can be managed instead of a confrontation between China and its neighbours in the regions with US support.
The author notes that Australian elites have had abandonment issues. Always relying on the UK, and later the US for its security. Raby argues that there's another option; to work much more closely with its neighbours, along with China and the US, to establish a security framework to ensure mutual peace and prosperity. All the countries in the region want prosperity, including the US and China above all others.
ASPI wouldn't like this book, cause it promotes cooperation over confrontation. Confrontation could mean a war, and war is good for the US arms industry. It's a good read.

[Debbie Terranova · Rating 4 out of 5]

Commentary on the rise of China and the impact on the rest of the world, in particular Australia. Author, Geoff Raby AO, was Australia's ambassador to China (2007-11) and is an undisputed authority in the field. China's strategies to maintain and advance its global position such as the Belts and Roads initiative are explained, as are its two historical goals: to defend its territorial integrity, and to protect the CPC as China's legitimate ruling party. Raby raises concerns about Australia's response to the rise of China, which he views as lacking in direction and strategy, over-reliant on USA support, and low on diplomacy. For example, we need to be able to 'disappoint' China without offending it as we have done in recent times. Not an easy read, but a book that gives clarity to our current nexus with China and asks important questions about the future.

[Nabila Ayu · Rating 3 out of 5]

Geoff Raby’s China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future in the New Global Order enters a crowded field of books grappling with the implications of China’s rise, and does so with the distinct voice of someone who has lived the nuance of diplomacy. As a former Australian ambassador to China, Raby brings a blend of practitioner insight and analytical calm to a topic that too often becomes the domain of either ideological alarmism or naïve optimism.

Where many titles—such as Hugh White’s How to Defend Australia or Rory Medcalf’s Contest for the Indo-Pacific—emphasise the strategic and military dimensions of Australia’s predicament, Raby’s lens is primarily geopolitical and economic. His core argument is that Australia must learn to live with a powerful China—not as a capitulation, but as a realist adjustment to a shifting global order. He is critical of the reflexive hawkishness that has come to dominate Canberra’s China discourse and warns of the risks of allowing fear to calcify into policy orthodoxy.

What sets Raby’s book apart is its unapologetic pragmatism. While others often frame Australia’s future in terms of strategic binaries—choosing between Washington and Beijing—Raby advocates for a more independent, nuanced foreign policy, one that maximises Australia’s agency rather than reduces it to alliance calculus. His tone is measured, and he resists both the siren call of strategic defeatism and the overconfidence of middle-power exceptionalism.

That said, China’s Grand Strategy and Australia’s Future is not without its limitations. While Raby excels in diagnosing Australia’s diplomatic missteps and articulating the logic behind Beijing’s strategic posture, he is sometimes light on prescriptions. Readers looking for a detailed roadmap of what a more “independent” Australian policy might look like—beyond the broad strokes—may come away wanting. Moreover, while his critique of the current foreign policy consensus is compelling, it may be viewed by some as too dismissive of the genuine challenges posed by China’s more assertive international behaviour.

This book won't reshape the debate on China, but it enriches it—reminding us that strategy is not only about power, but about choice. And that, for a middle power like Australia, may be the most important point of all.

[Lee McKerracher · Rating 4 out of 5]

A very interesting and timely book on China and its approach to the world.

Geoff Raby draws on his experience as Australia's Ambassador to China from 2007 - 2011, Ambassador to APEC 2003 - 2005, Ambassador to the WTO 1998 - 2003 and many other relevant roles, so he has skin in the game.

Raby includes the historical context of China's development and the constraints placed upon it by its geography, population and resource mix. It is a fascinating read about how China views itself, its neighbours (not all of which are on the greatest of terms) and the rest of the world.

Its economic rise has made it one of the most influential (and at times dominating - or perhaps bullying) actors on the planet and we all need to pay attention to China and hope that governments can work out how to partner with China (as we will have to) and balance those other issues e.g. human rights, that need to be addressed.

[William Gregory · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book makes a good argument on pursuing an independent foreign policy. Engagement with China and lessening Australia's reliance on the US is important but Raby makes this argument cynically. As a former ambassador to China Raby is able to bring original insights, but his realist approach as well as his business interests in China make clear that engagement with China is, for Raby, a matter of bettering economic relations. The reasons this approach is dissident from other representatives of commerce and finance in Australia is most firms are a majority, or largely, American owned, and hence operate not with Australia’s best interests in mind, but America’s. But to pursue better relations with China a majority of the Australian populace must be brought onboard. If this means engaging with cynically minded businessmen then so be it.

[Lachlan Phipps · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ah interesting read with some really strong arguments and very reasonable recommendations for Australia. However, I think Raby under-analyses the real possibility of war between the US and China on the rather thinly explored assumption that ‘the costs are too high.’

The book is well written but sentence-by-sentence but it’s overall structure is lacking a bit of coherence - occasionally repeating itself or leaving earlier points of discussion unintegrated into the larger argument.

Nonetheless, a provocative and worthwhile read for people interested in the field, even if I don’t agree with everything

[Lee Belbin · Rating 3 out of 5]

Repetition of recommended strategies for Australia make this as boring as batshit. That said, the recommendations themselves (summarised as a 10-point strategy) seem wise to me. Playing deputy sheriff to the USA on China is as dumb as they come. When Trump was Sherrif - well, moronic at a minimum comes to mind.

[Gary Morris · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very informative and makes some strong arguments.

[Erin Cook · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is p wonky language-wise, but kinda general content-wise. Some cracking quotes!

[Lee Kofman · Rating 2 out of 5]

I like the clarity of writing and the broad context, yet I find the book's main arguments appalling, quite immoral.

[Laurie · Rating 4 out of 5]

While I don't agree with everything he argues, this is an important read. A sober evaluation of the state of Australian international affairs.

[Enie X · Rating 5 out of 5]

An objective review of AU-China foreign policies of the last 40 odd years. Strongly recommend it.