Predict the future more accurately in today's difficult trading times The Holy Grail of trading is knowing what the markets will do next. Technical analysis is the art of predicting the market based on tested systems. Some systems work well when markets are "trending," and some work well when they are "cycling," going neither up nor down, but sideways. In Trading with Signal Analysis, noted technical analyst John Ehlers applies his engineering expertise to develop techniques that predict the future more accurately in these times that are otherwise so difficult to trade. Since cycles and trends exist in every time horizon, these methods are useful even in the strongest bull--or bear--market. John F. Ehlers (Goleta, CA) speaks internationally on the subject of cycles in the market and has expanded the scope of his contributions to technical analysis through the application of scientific digital signal processing techniques.
I have no idea how to rate this one, the math is over my head, but the ideas of how to think about things like moving averages and the lag present in them has given me things to think about. Probably return to this one again when I'm not feeling so stupid.
This book begins with an introduction to the Drunkard’s Walk theory as oppose to the infamous Random Walk theory. That market behave like the meandering of a river through the conservation of energy just like an overbought or oversold market conditions. And that this energy is mainly arises from greed and fear of traders.
The author then touches on fundamental system and control concepts like Fourier Transform of moving averages (MA) into Nyquist frequency domain, Hilbert Transformer indicator using complex variables to analyse cycle periods, Kaufman and various other filters. And of course, his very own “Ehlers” list of indicators such as the Ehlers filter, Ehlers MESA (Maximum Entropy Spectrum Analysis) MAMA (Mesa Adaptive MA) etc. This book details a rather elaborate explanation with codes for mainly MA indicators using digital signal processing.
Unless you are doing a research paper about technical analysis of the stock market, or if you are interested in knowing how Ehlers MAMA is derived, this book offers little practical use for the average market technicians.
This is not a book for people that haven't taken calculus.
I understand what Elher's is doing, but I am disappointed that he does not expand on some of his calculations more. In particular, I think there are some errors in his calculation of cycle lags in window. Hoping his other books will shed some more light on his methods.