An unprecedented look inside the world of baseball scouting and evaluation from Fangraphs' lead prospect analysts For the modern major league team, player evaluation is a complex, multi-pronged, high-tech pursuit. But far from becoming obsolete in this environment. But far from becoming obsolete in this environment--as Michael Lewis's Moneyball once forecast--the role of the scout in today's game has evolved and even expanded. Rather than being the antithesis of a data-driven approach, scouting now represents an essential analytical component in a team's arsenal. Future Value is a thorough dive into the world of the contemporary scout--a world with its own language, methods, metrics, and madness. From rural high schools to elite amateur showcases, from the back fields of spring training to major league draft rooms, FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel break down the key systems and techniques used to assess talent. It's a process that has moved beyond the quintessential stopwatches and radar guns to include statistical models, countless measurable indicators, and a broader international reach. Practical and probing, discussing wide-ranging topics from tool grades to front office politics, this is an illuminating exploration of how to watch baseball and see the future.
This is an interesting book that probably shares more about the current Major League Baseball front office and scouting cultures than almost any book out there. If The MVP Machine: How Baseball's New Nonconformists Are Using Data to Build Better Players by Ben Lindbergh and Travis Sawchik is about the new methods for player development in baseball, this book is about the new methods for scouting in baseball. In addition to how to scout modern baseball and value players in the age of spin rates and swing planes, the authors detail their notes and reporting on how to run a baseball organization effectively. What we get is an interesting collection of scouting stories, as well as the authors' predictions for the future of baseball evaluation and roster construction.
The first part of the book talks through the different kinds of baseball scouting on a high level: amateur, international, and professional scouting. The Braves' amateur scouting director provides commentary on his past draft picks and scouting stories. He also discusses one of the author's stint as a Braves employee and conduit between scouting and analytics in the MLB draft room. The Yankees, Rays, and Dodgers international scouting directors share their insights and stories of chasing July 2 prospects. Here, the authors show how they are clearly connected in the industry, as well as have experience working for MLB organizations. There are plenty of great, inside stories on how a certain player was drafted or developed, with area scouts or scouting directors talking through the history behind how they made a decision on a player.
The middle of the book is about the details of baseball scouting: how to scout hitters, pitchers, and to summarize the complete evaluation of a player. Here is where the title of this book comes from, "Future Value," which is the authors' prescriptive measurement for prospects and they expect to perform in the big leagues under the framework of WAR, scaled to a 20-80 scouting grade. I found the recalls of examples of hitters with different types of swings to explain certain aspects of swing mechanics to be helpful, because I could visualize from memory Adrian Beltre homering on one knee, or Jose Bautista's big leg kick, or Javier Baez's bat waggle. Some interesting pitching insights from scouting include how it's easier to identify horizontal movement (cut, run/tail) than vertical movement of fastballs when scouting in person, possibly leading to the industry-wide undervaluing of rising fastballs for decades. There are helpful notes on understanding how to interpret spin rate, that high spin on four seamers up in the zone and low spin on two seamers down in the zone are both effective (middle-ground spin rate is the worst). Plenty of discussion on the value of "makeup" and inconsistent ways it's evaluated as well, but not entirely promoting nor disregarding the concept.
The final part of the book talks about the use of data in modern baseball and about each MLB organization and where they're at, with the authors reporting on each team's organizational philosophy in terms of roster construction. There are thoughts on high-speed video, how it confirms that pitches tend to miss bats due more to location rather than timing. Some changes in the game include an anecdote on pulling a pitcher with the platoon advantage in favor of a pitcher with high fastballs in an opposite-handed matchup against a batter who struggled against high fastballs. Here, there are detailed thoughts from front office members and coaches on current trends with the league, plenty of front office and GM gossip (especially the Astros), including the orgs most likely to lay off scouts next after the Astros.
In terms of writing style, it reads like a couple hundred pages of FanGraphs articles. There are coherent themes, but there's a lot of "more on that later" to end paragraphs. I don't think this was an effective way to build anticipation for later parts of the book. It's a pretty poorly edited book, such as "its" vs. "it's," "expand" instead of "expound," etc. A lot of run-on sentences, with heavy use of parentheses to further explain points or provide caveats. This style reads fine as a FanGraphs article, but probably not as a book. Some concepts are explained multiple times, leading to the perception that the book was organized by joining together disparate articles about how to run a baseball front office or how to get a job in baseball. For instance, "getting turned in" by an area scout is explained at least a couple times in different chapters. There's also a somewhat condescending tone when making various points made throughout the book that the authors feel are obvious (minor league pay, scouting vs. analytics paradigm, fans of baseball vs. employees of baseball etc.).
Who is the intended audience for the book? Some of the early chapters is review for voracious readers of MLB Trade Rumors, Baseball America, and FanGraphs, whereas casual baseball/sports fans will likely find the content so esoteric and detailed as to potentially feel alienated and fall behind. Explanations include on the minor league farm systems, player development contracts, the Rule 5 Draft, options, waivers, wOBA, wRC+, ERA estimators, etc. These read like a 2020 best practices manual on baseball operations, so up-to-date with 2020 that the 26-man roster is referenced (as well as potential minor league contraction). Yet there are portions of the introduction where even casual sports fans will find elementary, for instance, the reminder that batting average is "the number of hits divided by at-bats."
I expect the small subset of baseball fans who know their favorite team's A-ball prospects and the difference between TrackMan and Edgertronic will enjoy this book, as well as employees from all 30 front offices rushing to buy this to learn about their competition. Players and their families, advisors, and agents should read this book to get up-to-date on how they're evaluated. If you want to work in baseball, this is probably one of the most informative reads to give you a realistic look at what it means to be a scout or a front office employee for a Major League Baseball club. In addition to a chapter devoted to how to get a job in baseball, there's even salary range tables for different levels of front office employees and scouts that you won't find on Glassdoor.
Will this book age well after 2020? Hard to say. Tectonic changes in the MLB were always likely to happen in 2020 and beyond, even before the pandemic potentially accelerated some of these changes. Minor league team contraction and an international draft are on the horizon. Some of this is addressed in the book. It even addresses whether some of its discussion will be rendered moot in a few years, as a kind of hedge against the criticism against the outdated lessons of "Moneyball" under the backdrop of the overarching theme of finding undervalued talent. If this book becomes successful enough to release a paperback version with a new afterword to the paperback edition, undoubtedly the authors will discuss and predict how the pandemic changes scouting and MLB organizations forever. It's a good one, unique in its reporting and inside information amongst the many baseball books released in 2020, and very useful for those interested in how baseball operations actually works.
This is a weird review to write, because there are two really divergent grades I want to put on this book. The information contained within is good and useful; this shouldn't surprise anyone, as Eric and Kiley have been in the game for quite a while and are terrific at what they do. The writing, on the other hand, needed at least a few more rounds of editing. In addition to just copy-editing stuff, there were issues throughout of shifting author POV/perspective, changing person within the span of a paragraph or two. I'm sure it's difficult for two people to collaboratively write a book, I can't imagine doing it myself, but an editor should pick up on this stuff and fix it. So, overall then, three stars I guess
Filled with lots of meaningful info about MLB front office's and with a big focus on scouting amateurs and pros. This book is a great companion to The MVP machine by Ben Lindbergh as they overlap in a bunch of areas specifically when talking player development and the Astros. FV takes a more holistic approach to discussing the corporatization of baseball, as the teams that have done this have had success ie Astros, but also critiques this style of Front Office management. Only a 4 star because the writing style isn't as engaging or witty as The MVP Machine.
A fantastic look at the worlds of amateur scouting and prospect development. They go piece by piece, ranging from the draft to IFA to pro scouting and on to the data and technology revolutions in evaluation and development. Some of these subjects are remarkably dry, but they pepper the book with anecdotes of successes and failures and use recent prospects to illustrate points they’re trying to make. They succeed in bringing out a book that is both instructive for someone familiar with the subject and readable for someone who is less interested in spin rates and vertical break.
A book for baseball junkies! Definitely gets deep into the weeds on scouting, drafts, and international baseball. However, they take an in depth look at baseball organizations, how they’re built, and their decision making processes. This is the part that’s applicable to any organization. What are improvements your can make in your organization using information and new data? What decisions are you making that could harm your organizations in the long run?
It took me a bit to get into the book because I wasn't sure what it was. I came to identify two functions it serves: to be a snapshot and a textbook.
As a snapshot, this book attempts to give a thorough picture of what the professional baseball scouting industry was like in late 2019. The references are up to the minute, and it will be interesting to see how they age. But the important thing for the authors, I think, has less to do with the specific players profiled and is more focused on how those players exemplify processes and trends in the industry. They don't attempt to predict the future, despite the title; they just want you to know what's going on.
As far as a textbook, the book attempts to piece together the disparate topics that all relate to scouting generally. This is a contrast to other scouting-focused texts like Prophet of the Sandlots: Journeys with a Major League Scout, which tend to focus more on personal narratives than broad pictures of the industry in which they operate. In this respect, the text can hold up in its broad strokes even as the particular details shift with new bargaining agreements and general managers. But also, this textbook has profanity and pop culture references and anti-corporate messaging so you know you're learning from the Cool Teacher *puts on shades*.
As other reviewers have noted, it can be a little bloated as there is repetition of key ideas (how many times do rising fastballs need to be explained?) and some chapters lack a clear throughline. It's best to think of it as several semi-related essays rather than a unified text. If a chapter is doing nothing for you, skip it, that's fine. The chapters mostly stand alone, though some like the "how to" of scouting chapters are more clearly related.
The book has a narrow appeal, but if you read the title and description and something in you said "Oh, I've always wondered about that!" then you likely won't be disappointed by what you find.
A lot of really good content and anecdotes. Accurate info, and a great primer for those interested in scouting. I appreciate what both authors are doing with their emphasis on scouting and how that’ll playing into future strategy and business direction in baseball. The writing certainly needed more editing and doesn’t flow as a book often. It can be repetitive, but overall, a nice addition to the current crop of baseball books.
Longenhagen and McDaniel draw on their own personal experience in the scouting work to provide an overview of the modern intelligence warfare waged at stadiums, backfields and draft rooms. There is a comprehensive review of the nuanced procedures -- like how the 40-man roster and waiver wires work -- that are often a mystery to even the most versed baseball fans. This section reads more like a manual but the writers keep this light and provide ample current examples to avoid reading like a textbook.
There is a chapter detailing how the ever expanding data side of the game is in some regards pushing aging scouts from their jobs while other organizations see the two as complimentary components in the team-building experiment. This may be considered the overall theme of the book -- how these two worlds have grown since the release of Moneyball when it was assumed that the analysts would eat the aging scouts if they failed to adapt. There is definitely some teams that allowed that to happen and, in fact, accelerated that consumption, however, it is clear that smart teams are finding a place for both assets.
While Dollar Sign was often a dry read, the authors do well in spreading some humor and very insightful stories about their dealings inside the industry. As someone who closely follows the sport, the degree to which the game has changed rapidly over the last five years is amazing. The technological advances and machine learning applied by teams has altered how it is played on the field. You will get a very long peak behind the curtain of what most organizations try to keep secret.
I would highly recommend this book to anyone looking for a job inside baseball as well as anyone who considers themselves an influencer or content producer.
The authors of this very interesting book on the world of profession baseball scouting clearly wrote it with the mission of creating THE definitive book about MLB scouting as we enter the 2020 season. I would say they succeeded - this is a long, detailed look at the many facets of how scouting works, a view around the league at how different teams are approaching these operations, and some evangelizing about what the authors (informed, experienced folks in this world) think is going right and going wrong within them. Some of the chapters are much more interesting than others (the chapter on international scouting in Latin America was one of my favorites because we don't get to hear much about that in general); this book has a bloat issue and at over 350 pages it's too dense and detailed for a lot of casual fans. As a previous reviewer mentioned the target audience seems a little confused; sometimes the authors gently explain very basic things yet at other times offhandedly deride the way regular fans look at the game. There is also a repeated incessant use of NFL to explain things that I found annoying (I'm a baseball fan reading a baseball book!). All in all I would say that dedicated baseball fans know it takes work to truly understand much of the game and the same is the case for this book. Those of us interested in staying informed of the cutting edge of the game and understanding how baseball ops departments work will find this quite informative, if lengthy/textbooky at times.
Although I personally enjoyed this book a great deal, I must readers that it is not for the casual baseball fan. It is a bit of a slog to get through and could do with more anecdotal stories to illustrate the authors' enlightening and thorough description of the modern search for upcoming baseball talent. Future Value is a thorough dive into the world of the contemporary scout—a world with its own language, methods, metrics, and madness. From rural high schools to elite amateur showcases; from the back fields of spring training to major league draft rooms, FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel break down the key systems and techniques used to assess talent. It's a process that has moved beyond the quintessential stopwatches and radar guns to include statistical models, countless measurable indicators, and a broader international reach.
I really loved the book. Three people in my family played pro baseball and one of them also did scouting. Scouting had changed from actually seeing the players play and using all this new technology and data to pick who would be a good player. The book talks about the various ways you can scout players, the Draft, The farm System (minor league players) and also International systems. Then they have a rating system where each player gets a number for hitting or pitching. The new future of baseball is looking for players that have Future Value. The last chapter of the book talks about how the teams are all using different methods to choose players. Scouting is nothing like it used to be. I learned so much more about baseball than I ever knew before.
I was extremely disappointed by this book. It's an interesting topic, and the authors clearly have a lot of knowledge and information to share. But the book is terribly written - it reads like a term paper written as a last-minute all nighter by someone who forgot to take their ADHD meds. The organization is terrible - it jumps almost randomly from topic to topic and then back again; the phrase "we'll discuss this in more detail later" shows up repeatedly; and sentences saying the exact same thing appear in close proximity all the time. There are grammar errors and incorrect word choices all through the text. The whole thing reads like a first draft that desperately needs 3 or 4 rounds of heavy revision under the hands of a skilled editor before it is ready to be published.
Not recommended, at all. The authors can do better.
An extremely useful book that was definitely written in the moment and feels dated just four years later. Given that many fans have yet to realize that baseball has long moved on from the market inefficiencies laid out in Moneyball, this book is valuable in showcasing what teams have done and are doing since then, what the evolution in technology has meant to assessing talent on and off the field, and what teams are looking for in terms of people to make those assessments.
While a lot has already changed in the few years since this book came out, I think it is a required reading for anyone with an interest in the operations of a baseball team.
This is one of the best books I’ve ever read on baseball and maybe the most enjoyable overall to read. It’s full of inside baseball stories ranging from scouting in Latin America to building a draft board for the annual amateur domestic draft. I particularly liked the numerous behind the scenes stories of front offices succeeding and failing and what made them succeed or fail. If you’re interested in baseball analytics, scouting, or how to construct an MLB team, this is a fantastic read. Highly recommended.
This is like The MVP Machine (2019) for player scouting. Where MVP sought to explain how baseball players hone their skills through technological means, Future Value seeks to do the same for drafting new players. It’s got plenty of info for avid baseball fans and people looking to have a baseball career off the field. Definitely recommend if you are a baseball fan looking to stay at the cutting edge of MLB culture.
In my opinion this is the best book out there now for baseball. For those reviews that stated this book read like a paper, well you just are a casual fan of baseball. As someone aspiring to work for a front office this book said it all and will help guide anyone to reach that dream. A fantastic read and I want to go back and add post it notes to the most important parts for me.
The fatal flaw with this book is that it is very rapidly going out of date, and will be unreadable in 10 years. Of course, the game has changed a lot with the new CBA that is not reflected in here, so not everything is accurate. The authors offer some very fascinating insight into the game, but most of it comes later in the book. Not an easy read for anything less than a diehard fan.
Interesting insight on scouting and draft and how they'll get the next set of players.. It had a good balance of how it can make or break. I really wish there was more on drafts in media after reading this (during the NFL draft as I'm not a fan of football and I couldn't watch my game shows lol). The only downside is the editing, the chapters should be more fluid and less bouncing back and forth (this is baseball not tennis! lol).
Received this as a goodreads giveaway for an honest review.
This is the book every baseball superfan and amateur scout has always wanted. The authors peel back the veil into the process teams use to evaluate players, and give deep insight into how scouts project young talent.
A little inconsistent (two authors writing one book is hard!), and weirdly leaning a bit to old-timey scouting, but still very well done, and a worthwhile resource. Better read it now, though, since things are changing fast.
I appreciated the inside look at the journey from 'some guy' to working in MLB analytics departments and writing for Fangraphs. This book will help the average baseball fan understand the game better.
This book contains a ton of great information. Very informative about the J2 process, the structure of organizations, how to rate and value prospects. The book didn't flow very well in parts and the readability of it suffered at times.
Didn't realize thus was intended for aspiring scouts. Would have been better if there were more of the stories of how players were discovered or evaluated differently. But it was intereting to learn