Predicting the Turn: The High Stakes Game of Business Between Startups and Blue Chips

by Dave Knox, Kyle Tait (Reading)

MP3 CD Format Predicting The Turn is your rule book for the new game of high-stakes business.

The Fortune 500 was first published in 1955, and since that time, 89 percent of the list has completely turned over. When the S&P 500 was launched in 1958, the average company remained in the index for roughly sixty-one years.

Today, an S&P 500 company is being replaced about once every two weeks.

It is no wonder that disruption and innovation are at the top of every executive agenda for the world's largest companies. These leaders are trying to determine how to compete with a new breed of competitors that are playing the game by entirely different set of rules.

In Predicting The Turn , Dave Knox discusses the new high-stakes game of business between disruptive startups and Blue Chip companies, teaching listeners how to foresee the future of their industry.

As a brand marketer, venture investor, and startup advisor, Knox provides a one-of-a-kind worldview into the changing relationship between startups and Fortune 500 companies. His insight-filled book Predicting The Turn teaches the world's largest companies how to foresee the future of their industries.

Genres: Business, Nonfiction

1 pages, Audio CD

Published March 1, 2021

Reviews

[Tom Ewing · Rating 3 out of 5]

For all that I work in business, I don't read a huge number of "business books". Their breathless, joyless style, uncritical success-worship, neophilia and tin ear for culture are a turn-off, in general. Predicting The Turn is not really an exception - it's the kind of book where the first woman quoted is on page 87 of 124, and she's also the only woman quoted. It presents a world of virile disruptors disrupting each other incessantly, spunking cartloads of funding up the wall in a quest to become the next Uber (or, to pick the niche subscription box sector the author seems to particularly admire, the latest Lootcrate).

You don't have to look further than the previous Uber to get that there's a human cost to some of this as well as a business benefit, but Knox isn't trying to be a commentator or a fortune-teller: presumably shrewd investments are given equal weight as examples with Juicero, the absurd high end juice-maker. Since this book was written Juicero's reputation has gone up in smoke after internet videos showed you could press the company's fruit packs by hand, rather than pay 700 bucks for its connected squeezer gizmo. Maybe it's unfair to pick on one dumb example, but it's symptomatic - this is a book which pays the usual lip service to the necessity of failure but the only failures it actually covers are presumed failures of imagination or ones caused by complacency. There are no stories of terrible bets or wrong guesses, which means something like the Juicero mention jumps out.

Still, professionally speaking I did actually get quite a lot from this book so it gets a grudging three stars. It provides a useful structural breakdown of a particular moment in the history of large corporations, as they look to either beat or join a wave of VC funded start-up competitors. There are plenty of examples of the different ways companies like Nestle, Unilever et al have reacted to these developments: acquisitions, partnerships, setting up miniature VC funds themselves, and so on. Ignore the relentless boosterism and this is a lean, informative guide to the new face of corporate R&D.

[Jenny Cooper · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a fascinating book which looks at ways in which large corporate entities can compete against startups in the rapidly evolving digital world. Established companies tend to be hampered by an inertia which stems from their size, their corporate infrastructure and an arrogance which leads them to believe that they are infallible. Whereas size used to be an indicator of success, nowadays in the midst of the digital revolution, speed is the critical factor. Big companies have to be able to move fast in order not to be left behind. The small startup has an obvious advantage in this area and this book investigates various strategies which can be used by larger organisations in order to start behaving like, and therefore successfully competing against, these highly motivated and innovative new players.

I was given this book in a Goodreads Giveaway. Although I have worked in industry, I am a layman when it comes to corporate strategic issues. However, the book was written in such a way that it was easy to read, easy to understand and, bizarrely, quite gripping. I would thoroughly recommend it, not only to people in positions of power in the corporate world, but also to people who work for smaller organisations, startups and those who are just interested in the way things work.

[Susan · Rating 4 out of 5]

I won this book through Goodreads. Very interesting and educational book. Lots of intriguing and well thought out ideas.

[Elizabeth · Rating 3 out of 5]

I kind of wish my first book of 2018 had been a novel that changed my life but I guess a quick read on business transformation will do. Dave Knox's pithy 'Predicting the Turn' provides a compelling (if not new) case for change and some good examples of how large incumbents are embracing change and starting to transform their businesses. Although the book isn't ground-breaking, it offered useful reinforcement for change agents within large incumbent organizations. I especially like the following quotes from industry leaders that Knox shares in this book:
“A combination of denial, arrogance, and short-term thinking has led to this present moment where almost every large company has shown up to battle holding the wrong weapon” (Kenny Tomlin)
“This is the Industrialist’s Dilemma: the systems, management and assets that led to success in the industrial era are holding incumbents back today, in some cases fatally” (Robert Siegel and Aaron Levie)
“We believe that defining the future of real food requires new approaches, new business models, smart external development and an ecosystem of innovative partners” (Denise Morrison)
“Leadership is the most important building block of transformation. Great leadership treats every challenge as an opportunity, and can adapt to any environment” (Pete Blackshaw)

[Emanuel Vass · Rating 5 out of 5]

Develop an eye for predicting the turn throughengaging with the startup ecosystem. Be ready tochange your business model and bring in human talent through innovation-driven acquisition, investment, partnership, or by building solutions that will disrupt the disrupting startups.

[Emily · Rating 4 out of 5]

Quick read yet fascinating, especially the stories of companies who got disrupted and startups who hit it big

[Paul Szydlowski · Rating 4 out of 5]

Dave Knox is a local boy who makes a good argument that the big boys better learn from the new kids, lest they become dinosaurs.

[Tom Oman · Rating 3 out of 5]

Has a few interesting business anecdotes, summarizes some different trends in a semi-insightful way. Wouldn’t recommend.

[Stephen McGhee · Rating 5 out of 5]

I thoroughly enjoyed the book and the smart anecdotes throughout. It provide a few great frameworks to help businesses and teams thing hard about the right way forward. It is clear that times are changing and this book provides solid thinking about what big businesses need to do to stay ahead.