The Next Apocalypse: The Art and Science of Survival

by Chris Begley

In this insightful book, an underwater archaeologist and survival coach shows how understanding the collapse of civilizations can help us prepare for a troubled future.

Pandemic, climate change, or our era is ripe with the odor of doomsday. In movies, books, and more, our imaginations run wild with visions of dreadful, abandoned cities and returning to the land in a desperate attempt at survival.

In The Next Apocalypse , archaeologist Chris Begley argues that we completely misunderstand how disaster works. Examining past collapses of civilizations, such as the Maya and Rome, he argues that these breakdowns are actually less about cataclysmic destruction than they are about long processes of change. In it’s what happens after the initial uproar that matters. Some people abandon their homes and neighbors; others band together to start anew. As we anticipate our own fate, Begley tells us that it was communities, not lone heroes, who survived past apocalypses—and who will survive the next.

Fusing archaeology, survivalism, and social criticism, The Next Apocalypse is an essential read for anxious times.

Genres: Nonfiction, History, Science, Survival, Sociology, Social Science, Society

288 pages, Hardcover

Published November 16, 2021

Reviews

[Darya Silman · Rating 5 out of 5]

What does apocalypse mean for the broad audience? And are we so mesmerized and frightened of the perspective of an apocalypse? In his book ‘The Next Apocalypse: The Art and Science of Survival,’ Chris Begley, an archeologist with 25 years of experience, dives right into the roots of the phenomenon. He asks what the next apocalypse will look like and why people are so obsessed with the topic in the first place. He bases answers on his experience as an archeologist in different parts of the world as well as on conversations with experts in history and collapses’ anatomy.

Often when imagining an apocalypse, people think of a sudden catastrophe that in minutes turns the world upside down. We know the basics from the TV shows, movies, and books:
Run as fast as you can.
Fight for the supplies (if you don’t own a gun, you are doomed).
Go to the countryside.
Avoid big cities as long as possible.
Hide from zombies (if there are no zombies, then hide from other people and organize in small groups).
Aliens, a meteor, nuclear war, climate change; fears of the future are nurtured exponentially by all sorts of media. Some of them are fictional, some are real, but the point is: many of us want to be ready. However, as the current pandemic showed, nobody can be prepared to work from home and homeschool children.

In his book, Chris Begley dissects the myths surrounding apocalypses one by one until global scale preparedness seems senseless. Instead, he proposes a brief practical course of survival skills that would be useful in the short term. The main difference from other classes is that the author focuses more on the decision-making paradigm – assessing the critical situation – rather than fearmongering and storing the supplies.

With a calculated approach to apocalypses, insightful observations of the existing apocalyptic mythology, and the understandable text sprinkled with kindness, the book will be an excellent, entertaining and informative, journey for a future reader.

I received an advance review copy for free, and I am leaving this review voluntarily.

[Bandit · Rating 2 out of 5]

I’m all about apocalyptic books, fiction of nonfiction. The world is ending anyway, according to the news. It’s just doing it slowly and stupidly. The books, at least, do it in an exciting fashion.
Well, maybe not all books. Certainly not this one. This is more of a sociopolitical and socioeconomic take on apocalypse, presented in a highly partisan left wing heavily didactic manner by a very well meaning altruist who seems to be very proud of being an archeologist.
Seriously, if I had a dollar for every sentence in this book that he started with the words As an archeologist…well, there’d be a lot of dollars. Mind you, the man is also an anthropologist, but this is only a sentence starter once and seems almost like a typo.
At any rate, the author is well educated in the and experienced in the fields of archeology and anthropology, so his views are both informed and well formed. And, of course, he is absolutely right to castigate the right for all they’ve done to grease the wheels of the coming apocalypse train, from climate change deniers to whatever the f*ck the last 5 years have been.
But, having that been said, as a book this didn’t do much for me. I didn’t care for the overbearing self righteously idealistic tone very much. And I really didn’t enjoy the repetitiveness with which the author belabored his ideas. Over and over and over again and it’s like, ok, already, that nail is hammered, continue.
I’m also not sure I entirely agree with his ideology, though he makes compelling arguments. For instance, in the first section of the book he argues that civilizations do not collapse, they merely evolve…or devolve would be more accurate and the remnants assimilate with the majority at the time. So Mayan civilization in his view did not collapse, it just diminished dramatically and the rest of the Mayan people went to live among the other locals.
I mean, for me, if a civilization no longer has their customary way of life (their cities, sacrifice slabs, etc.) and the population gets reduced by something like 90%...that’s a freaking collapse.
But ok. Next up, the author argues that apocalypse is different for different people. For someone in Central America (or presumably any other third world country) EMP or something like that wouldn’t be a tragedy, they might not have had electricity to begin with.
And this is a huge thing with him too, most of his ideology is based on going from Kentucky to Chicago to South America (kinda civilized to properly civilized to barely civilized) and all the concomitant culture clash and adjustments. Mind you, apparently, he loved it down there, went properly native, even married a local. (And boy, is this repeated in some form or another and frequently verbatim throughout the book.) Learned lot of survival skills too, more on this later.
But the thing is that’s also not ideal. And that’s also a form of collapse and something most people (not brave survivors of Central American privation, but many others) would dread. Frankly, Central Americans might not be huge fans of this lifestyle ether. After all, huge numbers of them risk their lives and limbs just to get out of there and come to one of those countries that EMP would, in fact, devastate.
And then, of course, as a well meaning liberal the author goes on to pontificate how cooperation in an apocalyptic situation would be the key to survival. And, should the civilization indeed collapse, how people should stay put and help one another. Which is a bewilderingly naïve and one sided perspective.
And this is from a man who actually appears to have some skills in surviving on his own, enough to teach a course about it. There’s some of that in the book, which makes up the only incontrovertibly practical portion of it.
Overall, this wasn’t at all the book I expected or was hoping for. It dragged at times accordingly.
This is the book on the apocalypse the PC police would write, if they took the time to write books instead of sitting around making up stupid rules. The political correctness of the text is overwhelming. Granted, some of it is interesting, like the malecentric paternalistic attitudes in apocalyptic fiction and movies. Like I said, the author makes some interesting arguments. But they are so overbaked and, frankly, use precisely the sources they need to support them.
Can the Walking Dead (arguably some of the greatest apocalyptic fiction and definitely the greatest apocalypse tv show ever) be presented to support such an argument because of Rick Grimes’ many years of leadership? Well, sure. But arguably, Michonne is just as good and some of the female antagonists on the show have outshone the guys, for sure. Alpha is infinitely creepier and scarier than the Governor.
But this is a digression and as much as I’d love to discuss WD, this review is already much too long.
So to sum up, I didn’t love this book. I’m not sure I liked it all that much either. It frustrated me with its repetitive writing style and its overdone political message. I didn’t necessarily love the author’s tone and his overfond experiences of being, essentially, a poverty tourist, albeit with a prolonged work based stay, in a small third world village got tiresome. Only a first world person would get such a kick out of sh*tting in the wild and forgoing modern conveniences in general. That’s why they invented camping.
Then again, he makes some interesting thought provoking arguments and the book was informative at times (such as survival gear) so it wasn’t a total waste of time either. I’m going to go back to Walking Dead, though, for apocalypse entertainment and mental prep.
Other readers might get more out of this one. Thanks Netgalley.

This and more at https://advancetheplot.weebly.com/

[Matt Bender · Rating 2 out of 5]

The Next Apocalypse starts as an abridged Collapse where Begley surveys the decline of Mayan, Roman, and Native American cultures based on his own and others research. This is a helpful update to Diamond’s book, which Begley critiques. The major points Begley makes are that declines happen over a long period of time—it’s implied it’s often more because of how institutions fail than the catalyzing events—then there is a big cultural shift and reconstruction.

Begley then turns to critique pop culture and evangelical apocalyptic thinking and eventually speculates on how the next apocalypse will unfold. This kind of reminded me of The March of Folly when it was interesting and a Quora answer when it wasn’t.

In other words, the first portion is probably Begley’s research and the second is his teach whatever the fuck he wants course material. I probably would have rather heard more about his adventures than his pop culture musings but a low key fun read to start the year.

[Trish Ryan · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is an interesting look at apocalypse preparation from an author who combines an academic sensibility (he’s an archeologist and anthropologist) with real-life wilderness skills. The social commentary is extensive here, and he definitely has a point of view he’s selling. But it’s so far different than other “prepper” books I’ve read (mostly fiction) that I was intrigued, for the most part. The author’s confidence in human cooperation as the source of survival seems…naive? Or perhaps unsustainable. I’m not sure human history has ever seen anything near the social structure required to support that level of ongoing cooperation. But it’s an interesting thought, and this is a good addition to the literature imagining possible reactions to end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenarios.

Thank you to NetGalley for providing a copy of this book.

[Chantal Lyons · Rating 4 out of 5]

'The Next Apocalypse' is a solidly-argued discussion about how we misunderstand history's societal "collapses" and the apocalypses we envision in the future.

Begley is an archaeologist, and he throws in plenty of engaging vignettes about his experiences that illustrate his points. I found his explanations of episodes in history such as the "collapse" of the Mayan civilisation to be fascinating and new to me.

I enjoyed the author's disassembling of a selection of post-apocalyptic films and books too, although this part of the book was shorter and had fewer examples from popular culture than I'd expected. On the whole the book felt a little thinner than I would have liked - a few times Begley mentions examples to back up his arguments that I think would have benefitted from a fuller, more confident analysis, such as the environmental factors causing a chain of events resulting in the Syrian civil war.

Still, there is plenty in this book to chew and mull over. Begley rightly points out the fallacies in the thinking of many apocalypse "preppers" (who are often very conservative too), many of whom he encountered personally at gun shows. I once read a "prepper" book for story research, and the contrast between that book and this one couldn't have been clearer. "Preppers" can only think about fortresses and protecting one's immediate family, whereas history shows us that survival is dependent on community.

Well worth reading!

(With thanks to Basic Books and NetGalley for this ebook in exchange for an honest review)

[Diane Hernandez · Rating 4 out of 5]

What will The Next Apocalypse look like? Will it follow the plots of a multitude of books, movies and television shows? An archaeologist looks at three “collapses” in modern times to determine how societies react to drastic events. Can the Mayan, Roman, and Eastern North American indigenous societies tell us how future collapses will occur?

Despite the author stating multiple times that people searching for underlying causes found problems within their own time, he does the same thing. Drought, deforestation and system disruption are frequently mentioned as issues both then and now. Of course, that doesn’t mean the author is incorrect.

Ultimately, The Next Apocalypse is interesting more than informative. Writers may find his suggestions on how to portray the apocalypse more accurately useful—though not necessarily more entertaining. After all, who doesn’t want to watch a single family struggle through a giant snowstorm. 4 stars!

Note: It helped me to be a professional student when reading this book. It uses the vocabulary of a college textbook though the prose is like a popular science book.

Thanks to Basic Books, Perseus Books, and NetGalley for a copy in exchange for my honest review.

[Sarina Moore · Rating 2 out of 5]

The premise of this book is great, but I already believed the two major arguments (that “collapse” or apocalypse events historically take place over a long period of time and that surviving a collapse or catastrophic event has more to do with communal strength and cohesion than individual preps or survival gear), so I didn’t learn much. Granted, I stopped reading around pg. 120, so maybe I’m missing something. This feels like a book that should have been an article.

[McKenzie Lauber · Rating 3 out of 5]

got into ‘mansplaining’ at times but overall pretty interesting read

[John J. Shea · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Next Apocalypse is a deeply thoughtful book with a very important message. In preparing for future catastrophes, many of us are preparing in the wrong ways for the improbable (long-term social collapse) and not planning well for likely events (near-term consequences of climate change). It offers a thoughtful analysis of how archaeologists and others have invoked the metaphor of “collapse” in discussing past and future changes in human society. The middle part of the book examines past and present literature about apocalypses and post-apocalyptic worlds, tracing them from Native American creation stories and Mesopotamian literature up to and including such media phenomena as The Walking Dead. Near its end, the book contains some solid practical advice about wilderness survival and disaster preparation. Much of this advice derives from its author’s experience teaching wilderness survival and conducting archaeological fieldwork in Central America.

The book contrasts strikingly with the “survival/prepper” literature’s intense focus on strategy and tactics -what kind of gun to select for home defense, how many 55 gallons of dried beans one needs for a year. Few of these works ever question how or indeed whether the sort of apocalypse for which they are preparing imagine might actually come to pass. Floods and hurricanes have conspicuously failed to turn ravening hordes out from the cities to loot the suburbs. Countless predicted “second comings” have failed to happen. And yet, the world abounds with economies and governments failed or failing due people planning for the unlikely catastrophes, such as full-scale nuclear war or catastrophic terrorist attacks with mass casualties, versus things that do happen distressingly often, such as pandemic diseases.

The Next Apocalypse will probably get pushback from some among “doomsday preppers” who have invested much, emotionally, financially, and spiritually in improbable post-apocalyptic scenarios like those that appear in novels, television, games and movies. One also has to remember that there is also “big money” being made in supplying aspiring “doomsday survivors” with gear (e.g., storable food, weapons, paramilitary training) that they will probably never need. In actual emergencies, social skills, adaptability, critical thinking and intelligence will be more important than a cellar full of guns and dried beans.

Begley intends this book for a popular audience, and it succeeds. Still, in discussing historical thought about apocalypses and social collapse, and the literature concerning these things, the book sometimes lapses briefly into academic jargon. This is not a flaw, for anthropologists developed such jargon because they need terms for things about which non-anthropologists rarely concern themselves. The switch into this jargon may surprise some readers, but hang in there, the author returns to straightforward prose very swiftly and whenever he has an important point to make.

[Dan · Rating 4 out of 5]

My thanks to NetGalley and the publisher Perseus Books for an advanced copy of this memoir and survival guide.

Survival has become big business. Especially in our new world of pandemics, coups and crazies wanting to tear everything down and start anew. Many think that Eden is just a global upheaval away. In his book The Next Apocalypse: The Art and Science of Survival, Chris Begley, an archeologist, diver and survival coach, approaches global devastation from a few different views. His book is a study of calamitys from the past, what might happen in the future, and tips and ideas that are helpful today.

Mr. Begley starts with the fall of Rome and the Mayan Empires. He points out that collapse just doesn't happen in one day, but is a long slide down, generations could pass before the passing of an empire would be noticed. People stayed as things started changing for the worse, others left for better places. That is when things break down, when people start leaving and leaving others to fend for themselves. Which brings us to modern survivalists.

Mr. Begley attempts to probe the mindset of the modern prepper, and those who seem almost giddy at the Future Mad Max world they want to inherit. The cowboy appeal of strong man defending the manse, that most studies of settlers in the west would show didn't really exist even back then. He uses his own time of living and working in Honduras where the ability to make fire and shelter even in the rain was very common. One person's weekend skills, is another person's daily life. I'm sure many will not find this section to their liking, but I found this very interesting.

Not your usual run of the mill survival book. There are some handy tips based on his experiences and research, but his main thought it that in survival and to survive you have to help other people, not flee and hide from reality. Important thoughts for our species as we seem to have forgotten.

[Diane · Rating 4 out of 5]

Intriguing….

In the midst of a global pandemic, I guess it was natural for the title of this book to catch my eye. Survival is key to every element of life, and no more pronounced for humans than within a virus outbreak. Climate change, fuel shortages, there are world-wide problems and consequences looming if not already being dealt with. I was curious what the author, with his credentials as an archaeologist/anthropologist and a teacher of survivor skills (that’s an interesting combination, isn’t it?) would have to say…

And he said a lot, from a global perspective to an individual one. From ‘lost’ civilizations to how to cope with a current crisis on a personal level, the author walked through cause and effect as well as drilling down a problem to its very essence. I enjoyed his analysis as arguments were well-laid out and offered much food for thought. A crisis for one group of individuals may not necessarily mean a huge issue for another. Perspective was key and factored into much of the commentary and conclusions the author made.

Enjoyable on a societal, as well as personal one, the varied insight provided some new ideas as well as a few practical ones. While I wouldn’t view this as a doomsday prepper manual by any means, it does give a lot of food for thought…

*I happily reviewed this book
**Thank you to NetGalley

[Jade · Rating 4 out of 5]

I don't often read non-fiction, but this one caught my interest as it deals with the decline of civilisations, ways of life, cultures, etc. The title is a bit misleading to me, as it's not really about apocalypses, or anything, but more about anthropology. So, good job on the title author and editor! It totally makes people want to pick up the book!

Anyway, I liked reading about how societies that were huge in the past managed to evolve and tried to ensure survival for everyone, or most people. It's pretty cool to see how people reacted to change, and to understand there were never/rarely true apocalypses or big falls of civilizations. People merely adapted to another normal.

It was pretty informative in that sense. I only had a bit of an issue with the author, who narrates the whole book, as most of the narration revolved around him, what he did in his life etc. I mean, sometimes it was relevant, sometimes it felt like it wasn't so much. Still, I managed to follow his train of thought and read about the changes in various civilizations without getting bored or feeling the book was too long!

[Steve Albert · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was great, a very honest look at prepper mentality and apocalyptic fascination written by an archeology professor who also teaches wilderness survival skills. The book is divided into three parts not counting the wrap-up. Part one is an historical look at what constitutes the end of the world (hint: we're still here). The second part looks at some of the things frequently overlooked by preppers (even if seven billion people on the planet get taken out there's still one billion remaining so the lone family savior thing might not be realistic, Begley believes there will still be a need for a community approach). The third part is some of that basic survivor skill stuff you're looking for (how to build a fire, what else you're going to need) and a little bit more of the rational philosopher stuff that we see throughout the book. As stated, the author is a professor and at times this reads like a really good lecture: very informative and easy to digest. [Reviewed for NetGalley]

[Alexander H***l · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book wasn’t what I was expecting. I thought it would be one of those pepper style books but instead it just rips that whole culture apart. The main take away from this book is the narrative of the small groups surviving a post-apocalypse is not what will happen. Community and the infrastructure to support the community is more of value than a bugout bag and/or prepping course. All the jabs at the prepping community for having racist and misogynist undertones was pretty entertaining. I kind of wish he’d write a book dissecting all the themes (good and bad) in post-apocalyptic books and shows.

This book made me want to reread The Road.

[Lisa Christensen · Rating 2 out of 5]

Overall, found this a disappointing read. Here’s what I liked:

+ Author has a very unique and interesting background
+ insights informed by archeology, especially the definition of long-term, multi- causal collapse and that the societal response often has more impact that a precipitating event
+ community orientation of solutions

What didn’t work for me:
+ very academic tone, repetitive, and failure to make crisp points
+ structure - this felt like a long conversation and I think the sections would have benefited from more structuring around key points

A lot of interesting ideas that, for me, were overshadowed by the style and structure

[Ginny · Rating 4 out of 5]

If/when the next apocalypse comes, we will all be in it together, for better or worse. Dr. Begley offers a different viewpoint than the conventional Hero Saves All trope, based on an extremely well-researched and thoughtful book. While I don't necessarily agree with all of his theories, I appreciate his worldview, personal experiences and sound advice - this is definitely a book worth reading and discussing.

[Gordon · Rating 4 out of 5]

Well done. Includes a critique of the individual prepper mentality, and a description of the myriad influences that lead to change in civilizations versus the popular notion of collapse. Lots of food for thought.

[Nilesh Jasani · Rating 2 out of 5]

The Next Apocalypse struggles throughout to establish a clear positioning or identity. The author, an archaeologist by trade, frequently reminds the reader of this credential, yet the text rarely leverages it to present new findings or fresh interpretations of material evidence. Instead of a deep dive into the physical record of past eras, the work hovers in an undefined space, neither fully committing to rigorous academic history nor embracing the narrative drive of popular science.

The book is arguably strongest when deconstructing the concept of societal collapse. It convincingly argues that civilizational failures are rarely the result of a single trigger but rather of complex, multifactorial cascades. The definition of "collapse" is handled with nuance; the text effectively posits that what we often view as an ending is frequently just a transformation, like the fall of an empire or the fading of a lifestyle, rather than the total extinction events depicted in popular fiction.

However, beyond these initial insights, the narrative loses its way. The text begins to meander, often losing the thread of its own argument without necessarily reinforcing the core message. The inclusion of specific critiques of movies and books, alongside suggested survival tricks, feels jarringly inconsistent with the serious historical framework established at the start. These diversions dilute the book's impact, creating a tonal dissonance that makes the work feel disjointed.

Ultimately, the book fails to satisfy the distinct audiences it attempts to court. The survival tips are too sparse and theoretical for the DIY enthusiast, while the lack of deep, consistent historical analysis will likely leave the serious history buff wanting.

[Conan McCann · Rating 5 out of 5]

This book is both scary and reassuring. The good news is a real life apocalypse is not like in movies, TV, or books. The bad news: the author says we are already sliding into a slow-motion apocalypse in the form of climate change, and nothing will seriously be done until it's too late. :-( But the good news is that people tend to rise to the occasion, and to survive an apocalypse, while a big pile of guns may come in handy, what you really need is a community, social skills, and connections. Being a well off person in a rich country helps a lot too.

[Vinnie G · Rating 3 out of 5]

Publishers would make a lot more money if they made skinny versions of books like these. All self-help books need skinnys; TikTok attention span versions. This book was too long and not as exciting as I thought. It's insightful in some areas but overall, it's a real drag. Sorry - I know the amount of work put into this but somewhere along the lines, someone should have said "Hey, great title - let's dumb it down and make it fun."

[Tom · Rating 4 out of 5]

There are three takeaways from this book: 1. A massive destruction event doesn't occur independently, and is caused by accompanying government ineptitude, drought, or famine; 2. No matter how prepped a survivalist may be they will always be short time players unless they embrace a communal spirit to rebuild a future society; 3. Major destruction events are usually not sudden, instantaneous occurences but are years in the making, and hence victims aren't aware they may be in the thick of it.

[Darien Tebbe · Rating 3 out of 5]

Parts of it were interesting and I really enjoyed his overall conclusion about living through an apocalypse. But the book was too redundant. I think it could have been 80 pages shorter.

The political bent was a bit surprising. I didn't find anything wrong with his critiques but think they were too one sided. There's plenty to critique about each.

[Clary · Rating 5 out of 5]

I just think that apocalypses books >>>>

I just love to know that an apocalyptic event can happen and that there will always be something that will born from it, it gives u a different prospective.

Beside that: what is a legacy? Is planting a seed that u know u will never see it grows.

[Les]

Not at all what I expected—which the author clearly anticipated of readers. Very nuanced with dire warnings and time-consuming answers/solutions that are not without their own problems. So...very realistic.

[Erin Estes · Rating 1 out of 5]

Disappointing and highly politicized.

[Wombat · Rating 2 out of 5]

There were a few interesting moments but got very repetitive after a short while. Would not recommend.

[Rhett Bratt · Rating 3 out of 5]

Repetitive but valuable and compelling perspective.

[Jbussen · Rating 3 out of 5]

What will “The Next Apocalypse” look like? Will it follow the plots of books, movies & TV shows? What do you think? (The answer is a resounding NO! then add “you FkNing idiot!”) An archaeologist/survivalist looks at “collapses” in ancient & modern times to determine how societies react to drastic events. Can the Mayan, Roman, etc. societies tell us how future collapses will occur? YES THEY CAN. The major point is that declines happen all the time, over a long period of time, (Usually institutions failing rather than dramatic catalyzing events.) AND. Even “IF” there was a TV style Zombie apocalypse, there is zero chance it would be all Mad MAX out there! — (i.e. there is a big cultural shift and reconstruction vs. anarchy). This book is must read material for morons, and entertaining “I’m too lazy to prove why your doomsday shit… is shit” for educated people or those with brains. So why only 3 stars? MHO only. Book could have used an editor.

[Lissa00 · Rating 4 out of 5]

The author is an archaeologist and instructor of survival classes who uses his expertise in both to discuss the future apocalypse, what it will look like and how we can prepare. From the very beginning, Begley insists that any sort of societal collapse isn't going to happen overnight and might even take hundreds of years and we won't know that we are in the stages of an apocalypse until we are looking back in hindsight. And we will look back, because by studying past events, he asserts that there will be survivors. They will survive, not by owning bunkers, firearms and individualistic attitudes but by living in a community and adapting to the new world. This felt to me like a realistic take on how apocalypses happened in the past and how they might happen in the future. At times, this book became very repetitive and even for a short book, I think it could have been cleaned up a bit. It is also very critical of far-right politices so may not be for everyone, however, I really appreciated the tone and the message that it conveyed. I received this book from NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.

[Francesca · Rating 4 out of 5]

Begley uses his knowledge of woodcraft, gleaned through years of archeological work in Central America, along with data about previous civilizational collapse, to come up with realistic scenarios and themes for how a future collapse might play out.

While some of the guns-and-bunkers survivalist strategies may help in the short term, given today's population and the likely forms the civilizational threats will take, social and community-based solutions will play the largest role in how we come through as a nation, society, or species.