قواعد واگیری

by Adam Kucharski, علی معظمی (Translator)

كتاب حاضر نمونه‌ی بسيار خوبی از سنت علم برای عموم است. نويسنده‌ی آن رياضی‌دانی است كه با سازمان بهداشت جهانی كار می‌كند و كار اصلی‌اش فهم واگيری‌هاست. اما در حوزه‌های بسيار متفاوت ديگری چون بازار‌های مالی هم كار كرده و از آن‌ها تجربه‌ی دست‌اولی دارد. نويسنده هم‌‌چنين در خصوص پيامد‌های اخلاقی و سیاسی علم و كاربست‌های آن هم حساس است و توجه ما را به آن جلب می‌كند. خواندن اين كتاب می‌تواند تجربه‌ای لذت‌بخش برای طيف گسترده‌ای از خوانندگان باشد و می‌تواند بدون نياز به پيش‌داشته‌های علمی تخصصی، ديد خوبی نسبت به حوزه‌های مختلف به دست دهد كه مفهوم واگيری در آن‌ها كاربرد می‌يابد: از بيماری‌های همه‌گير گرفته تا شبكه‌های اجتماعی اينترنتی، برنامه‌های تبليغاتی، بازارهای مالی و خشونت خيابانی.

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, Health, Economics, Medicine, History, Biology

402 pages, Paperback

First published February 13, 2020

About the author

Adam Kucharski is a professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, an award-winning writer, and bestselling author of The Rules of Contagion, which was a Book of the Year in The Times, Guardian and Financial Times.

A mathematician by training, his work on global outbreaks has included Ebola, Zika and COVID. He is in the top 0.1% of cited researchers globally, and he has advised multiple governments and health agencies. He is a TED senior fellow and winner of the University of Cambridge Adams Prize and the Wellcome Trust Science Writing Prize.

His writing has appeared in The Times, Observer, Financial Times, New Statesman and Wired, among others, and he has contributed to several documentaries, including BBC Horizon. He has spoken at venues like TED, Google and the Royal Institution, with his talks viewed over 6 million times online.

Reviews

[Paul Fulcher · Rating 3 out of 5]

This is both an oddly well and oddly badly timed book as epitomised by this quote:

As infectious diseases wane, attention is gradually shifting to other threats, many of which can also be contagious.

Adam Kurchashki is one of the epidemologists leading the modelling effort for the UK Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which advises the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies who in turn advise the UK government on Covid 19.

If you're not following him on Twitter you should (@AdamJKucharski) and just today his team put out a sobering analysis of the necessity for lockdown measures

To keep ICU bed demand below capacity in the model, more extreme restrictions were necessary. In a scenario where “lockdown”-type interventions were put in place to reduce transmission, these interventions would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year in order to prevent healthcare demand exceeding availability.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid1...

He's rightly resisted the tempation to do a quick rewrite/update of this book but it does then make for a read rather different to how it would have read 3 months ago:

- mathematical topics like R0 reproduction number, SIR models and the threshold for herd immunity to kick in (1/(1-Ro)), which then might have been new information, are now part of every day conversation around the virtual office coffee machine;

- but at the time the book was written, one gets the distinct impression that straight epidemology was seen as out of fashion, and so both to sell the book and to make his research useful the author attempts to extend epidemology to thing "going viral" in the wider world (social media posts, computer viruses). However these were rather weaker sections: the scientific read over feels rather a stretch, and the resulting text becomes rather anecdotal and scattergun.

Nevertheless this is still a worthwhile read, particularly for the history of the epidemological tools that are now determining vital life and death decisions, for example the key role played by Ronald Ross, who studied and modelled malaria in the 19th century and:

[Mathematician Klaus Dietz] would help bring the theory of epidemics out of its mathematical niche and into the wider world of public health. Dietz outlined a quantity that would become known as the ‘reproduction number’, or R for short. R represented the number of new infections we’d expect a typical infectious person to generate on average.

And a comment relating to "Spanish" flu but equally pertinent today:

Blaming certain groups for outbreaks is not a new phenomenon. In the sixteenth century, the English believed syphilis came from France, so referred to it as the ‘French pox’. The French, believing it to be from Naples, called it the ‘Neopolitan disease’. In Russia, it was the Polish disease, in Poland it was Turkish, and in Turkey it was Christian.

A recent development he refers to in terms of more real-time modelling of epidemics has proven very valuable in tracing the spread of Covid-19 (see e.g. https://nextstrain.org/narratives/nco...)

One of the best examples is the Nextstrain project, pioneered by computational biologists Trevor Bedford and Richard Neher. This online platform automatically collates genetic sequences to show how different viruses are related.

And there are some wise words on the use of models - these two in particular:

in essence, a model is just a simplification of the world, designed to help us understand what might happen in a given situation. Mechanistic models are particularly useful for questions that we can’t answer with experiments. If a health agency wants to know how effective their disease control strategy was, they can’t go back and rerun the same epidemic without it. Likewise, if we want to know what a future pandemic might look like, we can’t deliberately release a new virus and see how it spreads. Models give us the ability to examine outbreaks without interfering with reality. We can explore how things like transmission and recovery affect the spread of infection. We can introduce different control measures–from mosquito removal to vaccination–and see how effective they might be in different situations.

and

According to Chris Whitty, now the Chief Medical Officer for England, the best mathematical models are not necessarily the ones that try to make an accurate forecast about the future. What matters is having analysis that can reveal gaps in our understanding of a situation. ‘They are generally most useful when they identify impacts of policy decisions which are not predictable by commonsense,’ Whitty has suggested. ‘The key is usually not that they are “right”, but that they provide an unpredicted insight.

While enjoying the book, I'd commend the author's twitter feed as a better and more timely read, hence the 3 stars.

[Pamela · Rating 3 out of 5]

I must admit to being a little disappointed in this book, but it is my own fault. I was expecting a discourse on the spread of diseases but instead found a book on the mathematics and vectors of why things spread (Yes, just like the title says.). Though the author works for the CDC he draws many of his examples and theories from economics. The writing is engaging and at times witty, still, I felt the author made his point early in the book and the rest was reiteration.

[Atila Iamarino · Rating 5 out of 5]

Adam Kucharski é epidemiologista de mão cheia e trabalhou bastante com estudo da COVID desde o começo da pandemia. Por muita coincidência, ele publicou este livro no começo do ano, um pouco antes da pandemia – de certa forma, uma perda, pq poderia ter explicado bastante sobre o coronavírus aqui.

É um livro de introdução à epidemiologia e como entendemos contágio, da transmissão de ideias de memes à cascatas de doenças ou de falência financeira. Ele consegue combinar de forma muito didática conceitos simples de transmissão com o surgimento de modelos matemáticos de epidemiologia e como eles são aplicados hoje em várias áreas diferentes, da publicidade à economia.

Recomendadíssimo.

[Nicky · Rating 3 out of 5]

The Rules of Contagion is slightly out of my wheelhouse, being less about infectious disease and more about the principles underlying all kinds of contagion. Certainly, there are many examples taken from infectious disease, and it's a rather on-the-nose choice to read in the current climate (for posterity: I write this review in the midst of the UK's lockdown to prevent the spread of SARS-CoV-2)... but a good amount of it is discussing other ways of "going viral": computer viruses, internet memes, and even failure in the financial sector.

I found it reasonably clear and easy to understand, and luckily the math content is pretty light and more theoretical than anything. I did feel sort of like it got stranded in the weeds, though: I wasn't sure where it was going, and as a consequence, I wasn't sure whether we got there or not.

In the end, it sort of felt like I was being told a series of cool anecdotes and snippets from research, without them being entirely related to each other. There's no ur-theory of contagion here, just a ramble connecting some various strands of contagion theory together. That's not uninteresting, but it feels a little unsatisfying!

[Mario Hinksman · Rating 4 out of 5]

A prophetically timed book from an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

The author has a gift for writing, as well as maths and epidemiology. The first chapter seemed quite brilliant how he wove his early life experiences into the wider theme of humanity's battles with disease over millennia. Early pioneers like Ronald Ross who discovered that malaria was not caused by 'bad air' which gave the disease its name but by by mosquitoes. John Snow and his work on cholera in London is also explored with some fascinating details.

Adam Kucharski explains the science in an accessible manner in terms of how contagion spreads including the increasingly well known concept of 'R' or 'reproduction number' which represents the number of people who, on average, one sufferer will infect. This in turn is a product of four other factors: Duration of infectiousness, Opportunities, Transmission Probability and Susceptibility of the population.

The same concepts of contagion can in turn be applied to stock market bubbles, social media memes, folk tales, language and many other concepts.

My one reservation was that I felt that the book devoted slightly too long to areas like computer viruses when I would have been interested to hear more about actual viruses. Yet this is a minor quibble about a well-written engaging exploration of a subject that became exceptionally relevant to 20202.

[Cav · Rating 5 out of 5]

This was an excellent book. Author Adam Kucharski takes a deep dive into the topic of contagion; in financial bubbles, disease, and social behavior.
"The Rules Of Contagion" starts off with some basic epidemiology; The SIR Model, and S-curves.

It continues on, telling the reader about financial asset bubbles, pyramid schemes, and "The Greater Fool Theory".

The book also introduces the reader to the concept of the Basic Reproduction Number (or R Naught, or R0), herd immunity, and The 80/20 Rule. The author spends quite a bit of time talking about social cascades, going "viral", Bayesian reasoning and social media, in general. Some very good writing here.
He also talks about crime-related contagion, including broken windows theory, mass shootings, and shootings in general.
This was a great book. It was very well-researched, formatted and delivered.
I would definitely recommend it to anyone interested in epidemiology, social psychology, or sociology in general.
5 stars.

[Mana Ravanbod · Rating 4 out of 5]

کتاب برای فهم‌ اینکه کرونا با اخبار جعلی یا هر واگیریِ دیگری مثل تب کلاب هوس یا فلان ماست میوه‌ای چطور پا می‌گیرد، چطور مراحل نخست شیوع را طی می‌کند، چه ویژگی‌هایی باید داشته باشد تا پیش برود و اگر چه بشود قطع می‌شود و ... عالیست. فکر می‌کردم در زمانه‌ی کرونا هزاران نسخه از آن فروش برود که انگار اشتباه می‌کردم. ترجمه‌ی معقولی دارد. یکی دو افتادگی در چاپ اول بود که اتفاقاً ورق زدم دیدم چاپهای بعد اصلاح شده. قطع و کاغذ عالی، صحافی قدری ضعیف. ناشر هم در معرفی کم نگذاشت نام مترجم هم شناخته‌شده بود. تا حدی می‌شود حدس زد وقتی همه از کرونا و مدیریت حماقت‌بار فاجعه‌آفرین آن در ایران عاصی و کلافه‌اند دلشان به خواندن کتابی که بیشتر حرصشان بدهد نرود. با بهره هوشی اندکی و دیدن نمودارهای این کتاب هرکسی بود بهتر این نمکی ومحرز و آن روابط عمومی پررو و بیشعور وزارت بهداشت کرونا را کنترل می‌کرد.

[Peter Tillman]

Here's the Inquisitive Biologist's take. It's certainly a timely book!
https://inquisitivebiologist.com/2020...
Excerpts:
"Kucharski is uniquely positioned to write a wide-ranging book like this. Next to his current position, he is trained in mathematics and did a spot of interning with a bank when the 2008 financial collapse hit. As such, he is at ease explaining both epidemiology and investment banking. ...

Particularly relevant to this moment in time are the epidemiological details, the titular rules of contagion. Kucharski introduces you to the SIR model, which describes how people move through three groups during a disease outbreak (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered), how this plays into the concept of herd immunity, and how vaccination influences this. He explains the reproduction number R, its four components, abbreviated DOTS (R = Duration × Opportunities × Transmission Probability × Susceptibility), and how this explains why measures such as washing your hands and social distancing have an effect. And then there are those mysterious superspreaders which requires Kucharski to delve into network topology (the architecture of connections in a network). Having read this book, you should come away with a far better understanding of these parameters and mechanisms.

But here is the kicker of the book: these rules are not unique to disease outbreaks. Ideas from public health can and have been applied to numerous other fields. This sees Kucharski branch out widely and cover a huge number of seemingly unrelated topics. His internship with a bank has given him an insider’s view of financial contagion, allowing him to clarify pyramid schemes and financial bubbles, but also how the notion of superspreaders applied to the 2008 banking crisis."

And here is Nature's mostly-positive review: https://www.nature.com/articles/d4158...
"The conclusion of The Rules of Contagion makes poignant reading. Kucharski writes that close analysis of previous outbreaks — learning what was predicted and what was ignored — offers the opportunity to prevent or control future outbreaks. Unfortunately, as the rest of these books relate, memories are short, political wills are weak and effective contingency plans are tweaked, ignored or forgotten. Reading Pepys’ diary entry for 31 December 1665 — “Now the plague is abated almost to nothing … to our great joy, the town fills apace, and shops begin to be open again” — we know there’s always a next time."

Interesting. But I'm pretty sick of reading about this stuff, to tell the truth.... So, maybe?

[Pipat Tanmontong · Rating 5 out of 5]

ในความรู้สึกของเราเล่มนี้เป็นหนังสือที่ให้ประสบการณ์ในการอ่านที่ค่อนข้างแปลกแยก มันมีทั้งส่วนที่อ่านสนุกไหลลื่นราวกับอ่านนิยาย และส่วนที่อ่านยากราวกับกำลังอ่าน textbook เพื่อเตรียมตัวสอบ ทั้งนี้อาจเป็นเพราะว่า การจะพูดถึงระบาดวิทยาโดยละไว้ซึ่งโมเดลทางคณิตศาสตร์นั้นเป็นเรื่องที่ทำไม่ได้(หรือถึงจะทำได้ผลสัมฤทธิ์ในการอ่านก็คงไม่น่าพึงพอใจ) แต่ก็ยังดีอยู่บ้างที่ตัวผู้เขียนจัดเรียงเนื้อหาโดยยึดเอาการประยุกต์โมเดลทางคณิตศาสตร์เป็นที่ตั้ง โดยเริ่มจากการระบาดทางชีววิทยาซึ่งเป็นแกนกลางของสาขาวิชาก่อน แล้วค่อย ๆ ขยายไปยังภาคส่วนอื่น ๆ ที่การวินิจฉัยทางกลไกตั้งเดิมของศาสตร์แขนงนี้ค่อย ๆ ถูกดัดแปลงเพื่อนำไปประยุกต์ใช้ให้เหมาะสมกับอุบัติการณ์นั้น ๆ มิหนำซ้ำในช่วงที่เล่าเรื่องราวซึ่งไม่เกี่ยวข้องกับตัวเลขนั้น Kucharski ก็เขียนออกมาได้สนุก ตื่นเต้น แถมกระตุ้นความกระหายใคร่รู้

แม้ว่า”ระเบียบแห่งการระบาด”เล่มนี้นั้นจะอ่านไม่ง่ายเอาซะเลย แต่สิ่งที่ได้เรียนรู้จากมันนั้นคุ้มค่ากับความพยายามที่ลงแรงไปแน่นอน มันจุดประกายความคิดเกี่ยวกับระบาดวิทยาให้กระจ่างชัดแบบที่ไม่เคยเป็นมาก่อน เราพอเริ่มจับหลักได้ว่า หากต้องการควบคุมการระบาดของอุบัติการณ์ที่ไม่พึงประสงค์ เช่น โรคติดต่อ การยกพวกตีกันของวัยรุ่น เฟคนิวส์ ฯลฯ รัฐต้องบริหารจัดการอย่างไรบ้าง และพวกเรามีเรื่องอะไรบ้างที่ต้องให้ความสนใจในมาตรการที่รัฐเลือกจะใช้ นอกจากนี้เรายังสามารถเชื่อมโยงความรู้ที่ได้ในการเผยแพร่อะไรสักอย่างที่เราต้องการให้มันเป็นกระแส อย่างเช่น แคมเปญการตลาด หรือ อุดการณ์ทางการเมือง เป็นต้น ยิ่งในโลกยุคอินเทอร์เน็ตที่ข้อมูลต่าง ๆ เผยแพร่กระจายได้เร็วและไกลแทบไร้ขีดจำกัด ความเข้าใจในทฤษฎีระบาดวิทยาจะมีส่วนช่วยอย่างมากในการเสริมสร้างความสมานฉันท์ในสังคม

อนึ่งตัวรูปเล่มฉบับพากย์ไทยของ The rules of contagion ที่พิมพ์โดยสำนักพิมพ์Be(ing) นี่ถือว่าทำออกมาได้ดีมากเลยนะ ทั้งสำนวนแปลที่อ่านลื่น เข้าใจง่าย(แม้จะกินแรงเอาเรื่องกับความหนักของเนื้อหา) ทั้งตัวกระดาษที่เราชอบการสัมผัสไม่น้อย แถมราคาหนังสือที่ตั้งก็ไม่โหดร้ายเกินไปนักกับสภาพเศรษฐกิจในชั่วโมงนี้

[John Anthony · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book, published immediately prior to the Covid 19 pandemic in the UK, seemed an obvious read. I hadn’t however appreciated just how wide the author’s interpretation of ‘contagion’ would be. It would include the obvious spread of diseases to attack the human body, latterly including SARS, Ebola and the ‘flu outbreak of 2009. But it would also include viral infections of information systems and various other forms of crime.

It was therefore much more than I had bargained for and I found myself skipping chunks of it. I really should have looked at it more closely before starting to read. It seems well researched and written but for me in this world of lock down, a bit of a slog.

[Sivan · Rating 3 out of 5]

The book is alright for what it is but unfortunately for me I actually already knew a lot of this stuff (flex??). The book covers biology, finance, public health, and tech. I think other books/articles/shows have covered these topics better, but the author does a good job connecting these stories through the common thread of contagion. The narration style isn't great though, sort of bouncing around between stories. I did appreciate the new things I learned. That experiment where the guy just paid people to drink water where a mosquito with malaria laid eggs is so gross 🤢

The audiobook narrator generally did a good job, though you'll be hard-pressed to find a mathematician who pronounces LaTeX like latex (it's lay-tec). He also said every letter in MRSA instead of pronouncing it mer-sah. Just going to assume this is a British thing.

Quotes:
"So why hasn't the CDC done more research into gun violence? The main reason is the 1996 Dickey Amendment, which stipulates that none of the funds made available for injury prevention and control of the CDC may be used to advocate or promote gun control."

"When Alexandre Dumas first wrote The Three Musketeers in serialized form, his publisher payed him by the line. Dumas therefore added the servant character Grimwald who spoke in short sentences to stretch out the text, then killed him off when the publisher said that short lines didn't count."

[Alicia Bayer · Rating 4 out of 5]

When I requested an ARC of this book to review, I didn't realize how timely it would be when I read it. The author goes into great detail not just on how diseases spread (which I read with far more focus than I might have last year), but how that can be extrapolated to economics, viral trends, social media, banking crises, etc.

I have to admit that I was far more interested in the biological aspects than the rest of it. It was certainly interesting to see how they all mirror each other as they spread, peak, etc. I do feel that I have a better understanding of how things spread in terms of diseases (though I already pretty much understood all of this) but also in these other areas. I liked the talk about specific diseases but of course this was written before he knew that those would be what many of us were most interested in, so there's lots of other material to read through between those tidbits.

Those who are interested only in how diseases spread may be disappointed that this is not the primary focus of this book. It's still an interesting read, and does provide some good information on that, too.

Thanks NetGalley for a digital ARC for the purpose of review.

[Jamie · Rating 5 out of 5]

Excellent and very topical book. Lots of fascinating examples of contagion, including non-disease ones such as memes and obesity. Well written and structured with a good level of detail for the layperson. The narrator on audible was excellent as well.

[Remo · Rating 4 out of 5]

Estoy en el alero con este libro. Por un lado, es una lectura interesantísima. Bueno, no una. Varias decenas, y eso es a la vez virtud y defecto. Virtud por lo obvio de encontrar un montón de temas interesantes. Defecto porque el autor manifiesta en sus declaraciones (y en el título del libro) haber encontrado un hilo conductor para todas las cosas de las que nos habla, un sustrato común, un principio subyacente compartido. Pero en realidad lo que hace es ir seleccionando temas y encajarlos a golpe de pelvis en su línea argumental, peguen o no. Nos habla de epidemias, claro, y nos cuenta un montón de cosas interesantes, desde la historia de la epidemiología como ciencia (que ya habíamos visto en Contagio, obra maestra) y siendo el autor matemático trabajando en epidemiología no puede resistirse a contarnos algo el modelo SIR, por supuesto. Muy interesante. Pero luego habla de la misma dinámica de epidemias cuando dice que los bostezos se contagian, o cuando habla del contagio financiero de las instituciones bancarias de la crisis de 2008. Los bancos en 2008 ya tenían en libros miles de operaciones entre ellos cuando petó Lehman, y el impago de Lehman llevó por un lado a la pérdida directa de dinero de todos aquellos bancos a los que Lehman les debía dinero además de la pérdida de confianza de unos bancos en otros (nadie sabía quién era el siguiente que podía petar, lo de Lehman era absolutamente imprevisible) y esa falta de confianza casi llegó a paralizar el sistema bancario mundial. Nada que ver con un modelo epidemiológico de contagios. Pero el autor lo encaja. A martillazos, si es necesario:

When multiple banks invest in the same asset, it creates a potential route of transmission between them. If a crisis hits and one bank starts selling off its assets, it will affect all the other firms who hold[...]

. Y sin embargo siempre tiene una historia interesante en la recámara:

Financial Times journalist John Authers visited a Manhattan branch of Citibank during his lunch break. He wanted to move some cash out of his account. Some of his money was covered by government deposit insurance, but only up to a limit; if Citibank collapsed too, he’d lose the rest. He wasn’t the only one who’d had this idea. ‘At Citi, I found a long queue, all well-dressed Wall Streeters,’ he later wrote.[92] ‘They were doing the same as me.’ The bank staff helped him open additional accounts in the name of his wife and children, reducing his risk. Authers was shocked to discover they’d been doing this all morning. ‘I was finding it a little hard to breathe. There was a bank run happening, in New York’s financial district. The people panicking were the Wall Streeters who best understood what was going on.’ Should he report what was happening? Given the severity of the crisis, Authers decided it would only make the situation worse. ‘Such a story on the FT’s front page might have been enough to push the system over the edge.’ His counterparts at other newspapers came to the same conclusion, and the news went uncovered.

Lo mismo con las modas, como ya postuló sin pruebas el amigo Malcolm Gladwell en The Tipping Point.

‘Some general principles are similar to how disease spreads through populations, for instance more social individuals being more likely to encounter and adopt new behaviours, and socially central individuals can act as “keystones” or “super-spreaders” in the diffusion of information.’

También encaja en esta teoría epidemiológica el aumento de la violencia por barrios. incluyendo la hipótesis de las ventanas rotas, que se usó para atajar la violencia en Nueva York en los 90:

Consideren un edificio con una ventana rota. Si la ventana no se repara, los vándalos tenderán a romper unas cuantas más. Finalmente, quizás hasta irrumpan en el edificio; y, si está abandonado, es posible que lo ocupen ellos y que prendan fuego dentro.
O consideren una acera o una banqueta: se acumula algo de basura; pronto, más basura se va acumulando; con el tiempo, la gente acaba dejando bolsas de basura de restaurantes de comida rápida o hasta asaltando coches.

De nuevo, postular que esto sigue el mismo modelo de propagación me parece un salto abismal. Por no hablar de que en los siguientes dos capítulos mete en este modelo el estudio de cómo se formaban las protestas callejeras en Irak durante la ocupación norteamericana, que terminó dependiendo de si había o no puestos de kebabs en la splazas (la historia es interesantísima, la analogía con una epidemia es mala). O peor aún, la adopción de los diagramas de Feynman como herramienta matemática en los físicos teóricos:

The spread of Feynman diagrams appears analogous to a very slowly spreading disease,’ the researchers noted.

¿En serio? Todas y cada una de las tecnologías/aparatos/ideas que se adoptan en una sociedad tienen forma de sigmoide. Llamar a eso "contagio" es de nuevo llevar el libro por los pelos haciéndolo seguir una línea argumental que no siempre es aplicable. En fin.
Hay muchísimas historias más, todas ellas fantásticas, que como único problema tienen que no encajan realmente en la línea argumental del autor, que las embute con cierta violenta intelectual en las categorías en las que cree que van. Pero que siguen siendo interesantísimas.
Al final reconozco que he disfrutado con la lectura a pesar de que le reprocho al autor ser víctima del síndrome de Gladwell (suprascrito), e intentar juntar cien historias geniales bajo un hilo conductor que claramente no comparten. Lo interesante de las historias por sí mismas lo compensa.

[Marcel Santos · Rating 4 out of 5]

ENGLISH

“The Rules of Contagion,” by Adam Kucharski, is an innovative and ambitious exercise bringing together models of contagion of infectious diseases and the spread of ideas and social behaviors.

The author addresses a variety of phenomena that are similar to each other in many aspects. He covers everything from the first theoretical propositions that modeled the outbreak of diseases, such as cholera and smallpox, to the social spread of obesity, violence, computer viruses, fake news on-line, and even bank failures.

In fact, the subject matter is vast and multidisciplinary. The author also mentions another curious aspect that can also contribute to its understanding, that is literary theory. For example, it studies why certain stories or elements of a plot are repeated in legends and fables over time and by distinct and distant societies.

Ronald Ross, a pioneer of epidemiology and allegedly the first proponent of the idea that there would be a pattern of dissemination of things of different natures, even proposed a general theory to explain the phenomenon. Ross began his work in the area of ​​epidemics, but later proposed expanding the ideas developed there to other topics. However, this same idea did not spread or develop with the expected ease due to the First World War, according to Kucharski.

Recently, the topic has returned to the forefront with the publication of works such as Robert Shiller's, “Narrative Economics: how economic ideas spread and become viral” (my review here: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...). Shiller revives the term “consilience”, coined by philosopher of science William Whewell in 1840 and popularized by biologist E. O. Wilson in 1994. The term was used to designate the convergence of some ideas across different areas of knowledge.

As in any good popular scientific book, Kucharski seeks to make the reading didactic and informative, using many anecdotal examples and not exaggerating technical details or exposing mathematical formulas. Even the basic Kerman-McEndrick model of infectious disease spread is explained clearly.

The author is a mathematician and epidemiologist, so his emphasis is clearly on the spread of diseases. Although in some cases he focuses too much on the dynamics of some diseases, in general he always tries to make a connection with other topics, pointing out the similarities.

The book is also very useful for those who want to delve deeper into the vast topics covered, as it cites many works by other scholars on each of them, making the book a rich source of research.


PORTUGUÊS

“As Regras do Contágio”, de Adam Kucharski, é um exercício inovador e ambicioso de aproximação entre modelos de contágio de doenças infecciosas e o espalhamento de ideias e comportamentos sociais.

O autor aborda fenômenos variados que encontram semelhanças entre si em muitos aspectos. Ele aborda desde as primeiras proposições teóricas que modelaram o surto de doenças, como cólera e varíola, até a disseminação social de obesidade, violência, vírus de computador e fake news, e até quebras bancárias.

De fato, o tema é vasto e multidisciplinar. Outra vertente curiosa que também pode contribuir para sua compreensão, que o autor menciona, é a teoria literária. Estuda-se, por exemplo, por que certas histórias ou elementos de uma trama se repetem em lendas e fábulas ao longo do tempo e por sociedades distintas e distantes.

Ronald Ross, precursor da epidemiologia e alegadamente o primeiro proponente da ideia de que haveria um padrão de disseminação de coisas de naturezas distintas, chegou a propor uma teoria geral para explicar o fenômeno. Ross iniciou seu trabalho na área de epidemias, mas depois propôs expandir as ideias ali desenvolvidas para outros temas. No entanto, essa mesma ideia não chegou a se disseminar ou se desenvolver com a desenvoltura esperada devido à Primeira Guerra Mundial, segundo Kucharski.

Recentemente, o tema voltou à baila com a publicação de trabalhos como o de Robert Shiller, “Narrative Economics: how economic ideas spread and become viral” (minha resenha aqui: https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...). Shiller recupera o termo “consilience”, cunhado pelo filósofo da ciência William Whewell em 1840 e popularizado pelo biólogo E. O. Wilson em 1994. O termo foi empregado para designar a convergência sobre algumas ideias por diferentes áreas do conhecimento.

Como em todo bom livro de divulgação científica, Kucharski procura tornar a leitura didática e informativa, usando muitas exemplos anedóticos e não exagerando nos detalhes técnicos ou expondo fórmulas matemáticas. Mesmo o modelo-base de Kerman-McEndrick de disseminação de doenças infecciosas é explicado de modo claro.

O autor é matemático e epidemiologista, por isso, sua ênfase é claramente na disseminação de doenças. Embora em um ou outro caso ele se foque demasiadamente na dinâmica de algumas doenças, em geral ele procura sempre fazer uma ponte com outros temas, apontados as semelhanças.

O livro também é muito útil para quem quiser se aprofundar nos vastos temas abordados, pois cita muitos trabalhos de outros estudiosos sobre cada um dos deles, tornando o livro uma fonte rica de pesquisa.

[Marks54 · Rating 4 out of 5]

This is a new book about contagion by a British professor with lots of knowledge about epidemics. The book was published in February 2020 so it is timely, except that to be printed in February, it could not possibly include anything on COVID-19. Bummer, but that is what sequels are for, I guess.

Don’t worry about the time though. Kucharski quotes someone to the effect that “if you have seen one pandemic, you’ve seen ... one pandemic.” The details of particular plagues and viruses can differ widely such that direct comparisons are not typically fruitful.

There is more, however. While pandemics may differ, the basic structures and dynamic processes involved in them have much in common with each other. There is a common set of approaches that scientists have taken towards studying pandemics and that is what this book is about. Kucharski is very effective in setting out how to look at viruses, plagues, and pandemics. In the process, he provides wonderful explanations of all the details that have likely be mystifying many of the people trying to make sense out of the new on COVID-19 - except for the politics, of course. Chapter 2 should be assigned reading to anyone interested in COVID-19.

The rest of the book actually moves beyond pandemics to look at how the theory of contagions has been applied to other areas, including innovation, marketing, finance, social media and a range of social psychological areas. You will even learn about the dissemination of “fake news”. This part of the book is also quite good, although it is not the set of topics that drew me to this originally.

The book is well written, well cited, and very effective in presenting limited data and graphics to make critical points. It is well worth reading.

[Monika · Rating 4 out of 5]

Świetna książka z mnóstwem informacji na temat szerzenia się chorób, pomysłów, filmików wiralowych i wirusów komputerowych. Znajdziecie tu mnóstwo informacji na temat sposobów rozprzestrzeniania się chorób, przebiegu epidemii, przyczyn jej wygaszenia.
Książka napisana została jeszcze przed pandemią COVID-19 i w kapitalny sposób tłumaczy jej przebieg, sposób rozprzestrzeniania się a nawet dlaczego w jednych krajach szerzy się bardziej a w innych mniej.
Co ciekawe - z książki wynika według mnie to, że łatwiej śledzić i prognozować przebieg chorób niż przebieg kampanii marketingowych.
Polecam każdemu, kto jest zainteresowany współczesnym światem.

[Tom Roth · Rating 4 out of 5]

Very relevant & clear book! I like the links between economy, internet and epidemiology. It really helps to understand how different factors can increase/decrease the spread of an idea/disease/financial crisis.

I have to admit that I expected a bit more about disease, and less about application of epidemiological theory in other fields. But in the end, I actually like the approach. As the book title already suggests, it has definitely improved my understanding of how things can spread, and how many similarities there are between the different fields.

[Ben · Rating 3 out of 5]

Spread The Contagion

This was an interesting book on "viral" spread.

I thought it had a nice interplay with how COVID spread from its original epicenter.

Learned lots about different things, like ideas and many other models.

I would sooner recommend Contagious: Why Things Catch On, but this was good enough!

3.7/5

[John Kaye · Rating 3 out of 5]

Obviously a timely read! The first half of the book is much better than the second half—the cynic in me would say that he wasn't able to stretch the real biological explanations for disease transmission etc. without getting more technical than the publisher would allow, so the second half rather pivots to the non-biological and a recitation of recent viralish events in the online world., with occasional references to links to epidemiological evidence.

Amused that in the last chapter, which discusses briefly the coming pandemic, he expects a new vaccine to be ready in six months (not specifuically about Covid-19, though).

[Rakshit Ranjan · Rating 2 out of 5]

The title, the deceptively attractive cover page and the release date (13 Feb 2020) led me to pick this book up. Although the description mentions that the book covers contagions beyond the realms of epidemiology, the organisation of the same in the book is highly disappointing. It is unclear what the author wants to convey.

The chapters are randomly divided with the content having no bearing to the title/context that the chapter wants to establish. I struggled through the majority of the book trying to create a mental model of takeaways that I'll have.

The book contains some novel ideas, is backed by solid research and is simple to read (not inundated with scientific jargon/mathematical theories). But the organisation and structuring of the material could have been a lot better. It seems like the publishers brought it to the market before polishing the final draft to ride on the COVID-19 outbreak momentum.

[Karthik Shashidhar · Rating 3 out of 5]

Yet another popular science book that could have easily been 50% shorter without losing any information value. First few chapters are good, and then the book descends into rants.

[Nadine · Rating 4 out of 5]

This went off on a slow start and by 1/2 way through I couldn’t put it down. Extremely prescient as it was written & published before COVID-19 and manages to talk about the spread of all things from disease to tweets, videos, computer viruses to disinformation.
I found myself often reaching for my laptop to research something further.
My only gripe would be that there were too few images - the ones in the book were interesting but it would have been good to have more.
And look up nextstrain.org - fascinating real-time tracking of pathogen evolution.

[Noemi · Rating 3 out of 5]

Toda la información esta muy padre (y especialmente relevante en tiempos de pandemia).

Mi pero es en la estructura del libro... realmente no parece tener algún orden y se siente como datos sueltos.

Los temas a lo largo del libro son algo así como: enfermedades, tendencial sociales, enfermedades otra vez, informática, poquito más de enfermedades que olvidé mencionar atrás, informática con tenedencias sociales...

[Venky · Rating 5 out of 5]

One of the most followed and admired epidemiological handles on Twitter is the one belonging to Adam Kucharski. A Mathematician, and Epidemiologist at The London School of Health and Tropical Medicine, Mr. Kucharski keeps his ‘followers’ informed, invested and entertained thereby allowing them to find their way through times unprecedented. One of his threads on the fundamentals of how a virus works has been the one of the most accessed on social media. Now Mr. Kucharski brings the same insights and information to bear in his authoritative new work, “Contagion.” A delight for the expert and the uninitiated alike, “Contagion” demonstrates with a pleasantly surprising verve, a myriad of linkages connecting the study of epidemics with other seemingly unrelated spheres such as gun violence, financial crisis etc.

As Mr. Kucharski points out, following the woeful financial crisis that rocked the world in 2008, central banks across the world, latching onto the repository of knowledge built upon the study of infectious diseases, homed in on the concept of networks. A structure of a network could amplify contagion. This was a theory pioneered by researchers engaged in the study of Sexually Transmitted Infections as far back as in the 1980s and 1990s. Similarly, notions such as the basic rate of reproduction or reproduction numbers are enabling researchers quantify the spread of innovations and online content.

Mr. Kucharski begins the book with a poignant personal reference. Struck down by Guillain-Barre Syndrome when still a toddler, the author completes a long and arduous path to recovery aided and abetted by a pair of resilient and resolute parents who keep reminding their son that GBS stands for ‘getting better slowly.’ Mr. Kucharski, in an eerie coincidence comes face to face with his old adversary after many years, when, in 2015, during a course of investigating a dengue fever epidemic in the Fijian Capital of Suva, he finds many patients afflicted by GBS. This endeavour results in the evaluation of surprising linkages between GBS syndrome and various other neurological ailments. As the COVID-19 epidemic of today is leaving the medical and the political community stumped with its mischief, so did the Zika virus with its shenanigans when it first struck. Mr. Kucharski requotes epidemiologist Laura Rodriguez in 2016, “rarely have scientists engaged with a new research agenda with such a sense of urgency, and from such a small knowledge base.” Since then as Mr. Kucharski illustrates, we have come a long way using welcome aids such as Information Technology and community outbreak research. “One of the best examples is the Nextstrain project, pioneered by computational biologists, Trevor Bedford and Richard Neher. This online platform automatically collates genetic sequences to show how different viruses are related and where they might have come from…Nextstrain has proved to be a powerful idea, not just because it brings together and viualises all the available sequences but because it’s separate from the slow and competitive process of publishing scientific papers.”

Mr. Kucharski keeps his narration riveting and shies away from employing technical jargon that might put the lay reader into a bind, if not a tizzy. Taking his readers through various epidemiological techniques employed by pioneers such as Sir Ronald Ross whose forays into the study of malaria are legendary, to the studies of William Kermack (who in 1924 was permanently blinded while working on a corrosive alkali solution in the Edinburgh’s Royal College of Physicians Laboratory) and Anderson McKendrick, Mr. Kucharski highlights the marvelous trajectory that epidemiological research has taken as time has evolved. Kermack and McKendrick evolved the Susceptible Infectious Recovered (“SIR”) Model, which postulates that for an outbreak to gain traction, three important factors are necessary: “a sufficiently infectious pathogen, plenty of interactions between different people, and enough of the population who are susceptible.”

Mr. Kucharski finds himself possessing two unusual and seemingly unconnected domains of expertise. Starting out his early career as an aspiring investment banker, he plied his trade with one of the financial institutions in Canary Wharf before the lure of epidemiology took over him. Hence he brings to bear this an invaluable two-pronged knowledge identifying unique connections between medical outbreaks and spreads of a non-medical nature, such as ideas. Referring to the 1962 work of Everett Rogers, “Diffusion of Innovations”, Mr. Kucharski informs us that four types of people are responsible for a product to become popular: “initial uptake comes from ‘innovators’, followed by ‘early adopters’, then the majority of the population and finally ‘laggards.”

As Mr. Kucharski holds forth, the economist Jean-Paul Rodrigue proposes dividing a financial bubble into four main stages. These stages bear an uncanny resemblance to an epidemic outbreak too. It all begins with the stealth phase, where specialist investors invest in a new idea. This is closely followed on its heels by the awareness phase, with a wider gamut of investor involvement. As and when the idea gains popularity and spreads fast, the media and the public drop their hats into the fray, driving the prices in only one direction – north. Finally, the bubble bursts, during the ‘blow off’ phase. Now compare this with the four phases of an outbreak: spark; growth; peak, and decline.

As the entire world is left to grapple with the consequences of COVID-19, one of the most, if not the most important facet associated with the management of the pandemic is reigning in its “reproduction number’ or ‘R Nought/Naught’. What exactly is this notion? Mr. Kucharski educates his readers on the work of Mathematician Klaus Dietz which resulted in the use and implementation of the R Nought. “R represented the number of new infections we’d expect a typical infectious person to generate on average…If R is below one, each infectious person will on average generate less than one additional infection….If R is above one, the level of infection will rise on average, creating the potential for a large epidemic.”

Drawing on the concept of R, Mr. Kucharski comes up with the acronym, ‘DOTS.’ DOTS stands for: duration of time a person is infectious; the average number of opportunities they have to spread the infection each day they are infectious; the probability an opportunity results in transmission; and the average susceptibility of the population.”

Mr. Kucharski relies on the work of the epidemiologist Sunetra Gupta in 1989 to correlate the dynamics of infection with a financial contagion. The spread of infections is dependent upon whether networks related to it are ‘assortative’ or ‘disassortative’ in nature. In the former, highly connected individuals are linked mostly to highly connected people. “This results in an outbreak that spreads quickly through these clusters of high-risk individuals, but struggles to reach the other, less connected parts of the network. However, in a disassortative network, high risk people are connected to low-risk ones, making the spread of the infection slower initially, but resulting in a larger overall epidemic. The banking network, according to Mr. Kucharski, turned out to be disassortative. This led to failed institutions such as Lehman Brothers spreading the contagion far and wide. Social contagion is also an interesting concept that has captured the imagination of the public at large. Physicians Nicholas Christakis and social scientist James Fowler’s famous, albeit controversial study on “The Spread of Obesity in a Large Social Network over 32 Years”, gets a special mention in Mr. Kucharski’s book.

“Contagion” abounds with interesting references such as the ones mentioned in the preceding paragraphs. Peculiar and asymmetrical patterns are dissected and social relationships analysed. In an interesting reference to “transmission of suicides”, Mr. Kucharski refers to a 1974 paper published by David Phillips examining media coverage of suicides. “He found that when British and American newspapers ran a front-page story about a suicide, the number of such deaths in the local area tended to increase immediately afterwards.” In fact, researchers in Columbia University found a 10 percent increase in suicides following the death of Hollywood actor Robin Williams.

The correlation between online platforms and biological occurrences can also be uncanny. Most of these platforms that are algorithm driven, feed on a self-perpetuating diet of undesirable viewing choices, pulling people further and further down what technology researcher Zeynep Tufekci terms an online rabbit hole. These algorithms draw people towards content that are more incendiary in general according to Ms. Tufekci. As Mr. Kucharski expounds, “the same situation arises in the biological world. Many species have to adapt simply to keep pace with their competitors. After humans came up with antibiotics to treat bacterial infections, some bacteria evolved to become resistant to common drugs. In response we turned to even stronger antibiotics. This put pressure on bacteria to evolve further. Treatments gradually became more extreme, just to have the same impact as lesser drugs did decades earlier. In biology this arms race is known as the ‘Red Queen effect’, after the character in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass….”

At the time of this writing, there seems to be a glimmer of hope in so far as the efforts to combat COVID-19 go. In a drug trial titled “Recovery” – an acronym for Randomised Evaluation of Covid-19 Therapy that was set up in nine days, and had recruited 11,500 Covid patients in 175 hospitals across the UK, it was revealed that Dexamethasone, an anti-inflammatory steroid which has been in use since the early 1960s has the potential to cut the risk of death for patients on a ventilator by a third, and for those on oxygen by a fifth. This has been the most welcome news in an otherwise depressing miasma of death and excruciatingly prolonged recoveries laced with lasting side effects. This refreshing piece of news bears monumental testimony to the indefatigable work of people such as Adam Kucharski and his ilk. A band of selfless virus hunters who have taken it upon themselves to make the world a happier, healthier and harmonious place to inhabit. And to their efforts, we remain eternally indebted.

(Contagion: Why Things Spread – and Why by Adam Kucharsky is published by Basic Books, an imprint of Perseus Books, a subsidiary of Hachette Book Group Inc and will be released on the 7th of July 2020.)

[Gretchen Hatch · Rating 5 out of 5]

The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread and Why They Stop is about epidemics, how they get started, what drives them, how fast they will spread, and when they will come to a stop. At first glance, one might think this is a book about biological epidemiology, and it is, and yet so much more. Adam Kucharski, a mathematician by training, explores the relationships between biological epidemics, financial contagion, social epidemics, outbreaks of violence, how words and phrases enter our vernacular, virality online and within the social media space, misinformation dissemination, computer vulnerabilities such as viruses, worms, hacks, and denial of service attacks. Written with a deep understanding of history, mathematical models, the principles of epidemiology, Kucharski provides the reader with clear examples of epidemic trends within many different contexts and areas of society.
Throughout the book Kucharski illustrates the commonalities of epidemics no matter their causes or where in society they occur. Epidemics can, of course, be biological in nature, but epidemics can occur in almost any field. With close examination one can find many commonalities between different types of outbreaks, and make predictions about how impactful an event will be, how much damage can be expected, and best ways to bring the outbreak under control.
Using examples from many different disciplines, Kucharski describes:
How our understanding of epidemics developed using historical sources to plot this arc
How researchers gained knowledge of the models needed to predict epidemics, and guide us in our response to them
How epidemics can get started in any sector, and the principles that guide our responses during a biological outbreak can guide us in other types of epidemics
Where and in what fields we may see outbreaks in the future
The Rules of Contagion is a work of non-fiction. It is extremely well researched, and beautifully documented. Kucharski makes insightful observations and connections about the mechanics of an outbreak. He is also a keen observer of societal factors that influence how successfully we deal with an epidemic (or not). Factors like skepticism, fear, greed, all come in to the mix as Kucharski describes the sociological factors, as well as the biological ones. He brings in research from many disciplines, and brings key historical figures to life using anecdotes from their journals and life’s work.
Kucharski brings his own professional trajectory into the storyline as well. Kucharski participated in an internship at an investment bank in 2008. His time in the world of finance came just ahead of the housing bubble burst and subsequent financial crisis. He has a first-hand perspective on financial contagion. Despite changing career direction a month in to his internship (Kucharski left finance to pursue a PhD), he remained interested in financial contagion (p. 44-45). However, Kucharski doesn’t stop with those two comparisons of contagion (biological and financial). He then goes on to describe types of outbreaks in many sectors.
Using the principles of epidemiology and mathematical models, Adam Kucharski discusses how biological diseases take hold in a population, how far and how fast they spread, and how these epidemics finally come to an end. He illustrates how these biological principles and mathematical models can be used to predict outbreaks in other disciplines as well, from finance to computer viruses, to terrorist attacks, to suicide clusters, to “going viral” on the web, to folktales and language development.
Packed with relevant information written by an academic, Kucharski’s assertions are well documented throughout the book. He cites scholars and studies from many disciplines. The citations section is deep, with wide ranging sources from contemporaneous journals and diaries, academic journals in medicine, mathematics, sociology, computer science, legal documents, Presidential speeches, letters to the Security and Exchange Commission, reports and recommendations from the Indecent Commission on Banking, the Associated Press. Over 17% of the pages in the book are devoted to the citations. Also included is a thoughtful Further Reading section.
This was a great read! I like how Kucharski discusses the social factors at work as an outbreak gets started, how our behaviors can influence the intensity and duration of an outbreak. Kucharski’s book is perfect for the student wanting an example of an academically driven text, thoroughly researched, well cited, well synthesized body of work, yet written in a style that is engaging and feels accessible and relevant to the lay person.

[Iván · Rating 4 out of 5]

Un interesante libro del profesor del Imperial College Adam Kucharski. Se mezclan diversas áreas como son las enfermedades-pandemias como el Ébola-SARS y las matemáticas-estadística. Pero también se reflejan otros campos interesantes como son la viralidad del social media, las fake news, la violencia o la crisis de opiáceos en Estados Unidos. Me ha ayudado a poner muchas cosas en contexto.

[Paulo Reimann · Rating 2 out of 5]

Contagion is way better

I was looking or leaned to believe this book would be more biology driven.is not. Is basically statistically driven. Contagion way superior.

[Dewi · Rating 3 out of 5]

I'd give it a 3.5/5. Many interesting anecdotes, and some very insightful points, but on the whole it seemed quite haphazard. The most interesting point for me was the contrast between the act of "going viral" biologically vs online, where going viral biologically usually means a slow and steady transmission from person to person, while going viral online usually requires "broadcast events" where one person with a large following brings a lot of attention to a certain idea/post.

[Shabbeer Hassan · Rating 4 out of 5]

A rather well-written account of the underlying structure of outbreaks and succinct explanation of the epidemiology surrounding them. A must-read in these troubled times!

My rating - 4/5