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The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China
A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable.
The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.
Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.
The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.
Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.
432 pages, Hardcover
First published March 22, 2022
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3928 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 179 reviews
June 23, 2022
Given the escalating tensions in the US-Australia-China relations, The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd is a timely analytical tome. Whilst the author’s politics may be off-putting for some, there can be no doubt about his qualifications and experience in Chinese and American geopolitics. He begins his study of ‘The Avoidable War’ with a brief history of the US-China relationship. Then, using the paradigm of ten circles, he analyses Xi Jinping’s worldview and the various factors influencing the changes in China and its impact on world affairs. Finally, he explores various alternatives for future relations and promotes a “managed strategic competition”. A most readable, thoughtful and detailed discussion that identifies the dangers inherent in a China-US conflict for Australia. So, if you want to go beyond the simplistic polarity of dove-hawkish notions then this book is a valuable contribution to informing your thinking. Overall, a comprehensive book that all readers can enjoy with a five star read rating.
May 19, 2022
This book is really a great example of western chauvinism. Rudd learns the language and works for a western-capitalist think tank and bestows upon himself the rank of China genius. In reality this book is nothing more than one long smear against the People's Republic of China.
Rudd seems to take at face value the self proclaimed status of the United States as protector of democracy and human rights worldwide. At the beginning of the book Rudd professes his 'love' for China. Though this is immediately met by a qualifier, he urgently makes a genuflection at the altar of anti-communist hatred with a dubious factoid pulled straight from the bible of commie-bashing itself the Black Book of communism;
'At the same time I have been deeply critical of Mao's depredations of the country during the Great Leap Forward of 1958, which left some thirty million dead through starvation...'.
Interestingly his love for the United States, and Australia, come unqualified, despite a large array of war crimes, genocide and ethnic cleansing between them. When it comes to atrocities, Rudd's outrage is quite selective.
When it comes down to it Rudd's gripe with the PRC is that it ended the century of humiliation. The west has never forgiven China for dragging itself out of an imposed poverty and re-establishing the territorial and political integrity that was almost completely ruined by western intervention. This is also his problem with Xi Jinping. The BRI, military modernisation and re-assertion of claims in the South China sea are not a repeat of western Imperialism but are an anti-colonial phenomenon and can only be understood as a reaction to the history of western intervention. Xi's programme of national rejuvenation and shaking off the final shackles of the century of humiliation go hand in hand.
Really what Rudd would like to see is a return to the good old days of the open door policy when a starving and drug addicted rump-China was run by a western backed kleptocracy. Unfortunately for him the days of imperialism are over. And Rudd's colonial dream is set to turn to dust.
Rudd seems to take at face value the self proclaimed status of the United States as protector of democracy and human rights worldwide. At the beginning of the book Rudd professes his 'love' for China. Though this is immediately met by a qualifier, he urgently makes a genuflection at the altar of anti-communist hatred with a dubious factoid pulled straight from the bible of commie-bashing itself the Black Book of communism;
'At the same time I have been deeply critical of Mao's depredations of the country during the Great Leap Forward of 1958, which left some thirty million dead through starvation...'.
Interestingly his love for the United States, and Australia, come unqualified, despite a large array of war crimes, genocide and ethnic cleansing between them. When it comes to atrocities, Rudd's outrage is quite selective.
When it comes down to it Rudd's gripe with the PRC is that it ended the century of humiliation. The west has never forgiven China for dragging itself out of an imposed poverty and re-establishing the territorial and political integrity that was almost completely ruined by western intervention. This is also his problem with Xi Jinping. The BRI, military modernisation and re-assertion of claims in the South China sea are not a repeat of western Imperialism but are an anti-colonial phenomenon and can only be understood as a reaction to the history of western intervention. Xi's programme of national rejuvenation and shaking off the final shackles of the century of humiliation go hand in hand.
Really what Rudd would like to see is a return to the good old days of the open door policy when a starving and drug addicted rump-China was run by a western backed kleptocracy. Unfortunately for him the days of imperialism are over. And Rudd's colonial dream is set to turn to dust.
April 23, 2022
4.5/5
An excellent book for those who would like to better understand the current world and the precarious balance of power between China and America. The author gives great insights into Xi Jinping's vision of China's development and goals and possible scenarios of shifts in geopolitics in the 2020s. Whatever happens, we'll be living dangerously in the decade to come.
An excellent book for those who would like to better understand the current world and the precarious balance of power between China and America. The author gives great insights into Xi Jinping's vision of China's development and goals and possible scenarios of shifts in geopolitics in the 2020s. Whatever happens, we'll be living dangerously in the decade to come.
August 6, 2022
This is a good entry primer for Chinese affairs. But this is not a great book to seek much insights into how to avoid a war. It is one thing to lay out an entire spectrum of Chinese affairs that are readily available in the public domain. The book packs them well. But merely putting out all the ingredients out on a table will not transform them into a gourmet. Yes, much clearer understanding of China is possible by reading the book. But what of the other half? The book outwardly puts the two powers squarely in half, both its title and its book design. Yes, the concentric circle idea of putting different facets of Chinese affairs is a clever idea. But it misses out almost entirely, any reflective plane or analysis vis-a-vis the US. "Destined for War" by Allison is criticized as being rather too simplistic. But it does present a clear logic by putting the two powers into an equal perspective, thus the Thucydides Trap formulation. This book does not.
April 5, 2022
This was an outstanding read on China, foreign policy, and international relations - leading towards potential conflicts (war).
It detailed some impressive predictions between China-US, and Russia.
It also did an amazing job at looking towards what could happen between these superpowers in the future.
There was also a lot of description surrounding the predicted incoming war with Taiwan.
One of the best books on tactics and strategy of world powers - specifically around China - I have ever read.
4.9/5
It detailed some impressive predictions between China-US, and Russia.
It also did an amazing job at looking towards what could happen between these superpowers in the future.
There was also a lot of description surrounding the predicted incoming war with Taiwan.
One of the best books on tactics and strategy of world powers - specifically around China - I have ever read.
4.9/5
October 10, 2022
Author and former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd studied China in university, is fluent in Mandarin and writes like the diplomat he was. He scrupulously avoids taking sides and probably means well with this book. Who wouldn't share Rudd's view that war between China and the USA ought to be avoided?
Rudd usefully lays out the various historical reasons why China and the USA don't trust each other. He describes the rise of Xi Jinping as leader of the Chinese Communist Party and outlines China's history, politics and economic system. He proposes a safety net of managed competition between the two remaining superpowers that will delay conflict while America gets its act together.
That's sensible, as far as it goes, but Rudd ignores or downplays many massive signs that China's path to global domination will be neither smooth nor inevitable.
Rudd notes that the pillars of the Chinese Communist system are nationalism, Marxism with a Chinese twist and economic growth, which keeps the Chinese population from resenting their lack of freedom. Marxism has elsewhere failed repeatedly and spectacularly. Nationalism is hard to control, once ignited. Economic growth is sought by all governments, but it's much easier to achieve in a free economy. China has harvested a lot of low hanging economic fruit but will be challenged to reach Western levels of prosperity without huge political upheaval. Rudd mostly ignores this.
He suggests that if economic growth falters enough to cause unrest, Xi's regime is likely to become more belligerent internationally, which stirs up Chinese nationalism and may deflect criticism of his authoritarian government. That makes sense, unfortunately. Remember the Argentinian junta invading the Falklands in 1982?
Like many dictators (see Napoleon, Hitler, Castro and Putin), President Xi is not an economic genius. In fact, he's now cracking down on China's private sector and undermining investor confidence in the private part of the Chinese economy, which creates 90% of China's jobs. Rudd points out that China's economy is already much less efficient than that of Western democracies. Punishing private sector success will just make things worse for China, economically, but Xi's main obsession is remaining in power and he's still a Marxist, so he can't help himself. He thinks he has to stamp out both dissent and inequality.
Clearly, the Chinese Communist Party wants to stay in power at all costs by remaining authoritarian, using courts as a weapon of the state, randomly changing financial rules and stealing intellectual property. That is not compatible with sustaining domestic prosperity, much less attracting needed foreign capital from capitalist countries.
While China and Russia may dangle their despotic debt to snare more banana republics into their global network of goon regimes, they won't defeat democracy and capitalism, long term, because people want freedom and capital will always flee arbitrary, authoritarian markets in favour of more free, transparent ones.
While he describes himself as deeply realistic, Rudd seems completely to miss this basic truth about economics. It's not his only blind spot.
As a longtime climate activist, Rudd supports the Paris Accord and urges the West to recruit China to join the global anti CO2 crusade, glossing over the fact that, despite the Paris Accord, China is still building coal fired power plants as fast as it can.
Unlike ostentatiously virtuous Western leaders like Canada's vacuous Justin Trudeau, President Xi is not stupid enough to destroy his domestic energy industry for the sake of domestic and international, innumerate, progressive applause. Yes, Xi may try harder in future to clean up visible, particulate air pollution in Beijing, because it's sickening his people, but he won't put a massive, anti CO2 environmental brake on China's economic growth, because his and his party's survival depend on that growth.
Like Ray Dalio's book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" which also predicts China toppling the USA, Rudd's narrative presents important evidence but then ignores its implications when they don't fit his message. Discussing China and the West, Rudd remains a true diplomat. He is neutral to a fault. I was also reminded of a very weak book I read on Stalin that managed to laud the diminutive dictator's work ethic but downplayed his tendency to slaughter millions of people.
Rudd usefully lays out the various historical reasons why China and the USA don't trust each other. He describes the rise of Xi Jinping as leader of the Chinese Communist Party and outlines China's history, politics and economic system. He proposes a safety net of managed competition between the two remaining superpowers that will delay conflict while America gets its act together.
That's sensible, as far as it goes, but Rudd ignores or downplays many massive signs that China's path to global domination will be neither smooth nor inevitable.
Rudd notes that the pillars of the Chinese Communist system are nationalism, Marxism with a Chinese twist and economic growth, which keeps the Chinese population from resenting their lack of freedom. Marxism has elsewhere failed repeatedly and spectacularly. Nationalism is hard to control, once ignited. Economic growth is sought by all governments, but it's much easier to achieve in a free economy. China has harvested a lot of low hanging economic fruit but will be challenged to reach Western levels of prosperity without huge political upheaval. Rudd mostly ignores this.
He suggests that if economic growth falters enough to cause unrest, Xi's regime is likely to become more belligerent internationally, which stirs up Chinese nationalism and may deflect criticism of his authoritarian government. That makes sense, unfortunately. Remember the Argentinian junta invading the Falklands in 1982?
Like many dictators (see Napoleon, Hitler, Castro and Putin), President Xi is not an economic genius. In fact, he's now cracking down on China's private sector and undermining investor confidence in the private part of the Chinese economy, which creates 90% of China's jobs. Rudd points out that China's economy is already much less efficient than that of Western democracies. Punishing private sector success will just make things worse for China, economically, but Xi's main obsession is remaining in power and he's still a Marxist, so he can't help himself. He thinks he has to stamp out both dissent and inequality.
Clearly, the Chinese Communist Party wants to stay in power at all costs by remaining authoritarian, using courts as a weapon of the state, randomly changing financial rules and stealing intellectual property. That is not compatible with sustaining domestic prosperity, much less attracting needed foreign capital from capitalist countries.
While China and Russia may dangle their despotic debt to snare more banana republics into their global network of goon regimes, they won't defeat democracy and capitalism, long term, because people want freedom and capital will always flee arbitrary, authoritarian markets in favour of more free, transparent ones.
While he describes himself as deeply realistic, Rudd seems completely to miss this basic truth about economics. It's not his only blind spot.
As a longtime climate activist, Rudd supports the Paris Accord and urges the West to recruit China to join the global anti CO2 crusade, glossing over the fact that, despite the Paris Accord, China is still building coal fired power plants as fast as it can.
Unlike ostentatiously virtuous Western leaders like Canada's vacuous Justin Trudeau, President Xi is not stupid enough to destroy his domestic energy industry for the sake of domestic and international, innumerate, progressive applause. Yes, Xi may try harder in future to clean up visible, particulate air pollution in Beijing, because it's sickening his people, but he won't put a massive, anti CO2 environmental brake on China's economic growth, because his and his party's survival depend on that growth.
Like Ray Dalio's book, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" which also predicts China toppling the USA, Rudd's narrative presents important evidence but then ignores its implications when they don't fit his message. Discussing China and the West, Rudd remains a true diplomat. He is neutral to a fault. I was also reminded of a very weak book I read on Stalin that managed to laud the diminutive dictator's work ethic but downplayed his tendency to slaughter millions of people.
April 21, 2022
Balanced analysis of key strategic priorities of the current Chinese administration and of the drivers of conflict in the Sino-US relationship, along with constructive suggestions on how to peacefully manage strategic competition between the two countries.
July 25, 2022
Since 2017, when Donald Trump became the President of USA and shook up the world order as it has existed, various fault lines have emerged. The sharpest of them has been the one that exposed the uneasy partnership between China and USA that has existed since Kissinger made his trip to the Middle Earth in the 70s.
Kevin Rudd’s book, The Avoidable War, attempts to explain how the history to this uneasiness and why it has only increased over time. More so since Xi Jinping’s ascent to power in 2012 and his desire to leave an imprint as great (if not greater than) as Mao Zedong’s in Chinese history.
The book is intended for non Chinese audiences, probably a practical move as it may anyways not see light of day within PRC. As such, a significant portion of the book is dedicated to explaining Xi Jinping’s views on China, its rightful role in the pantheon of nations, the path towards achieving the same and the key impediments in that path. It explains how China has little or no compunctions about lying through its teeth or going back on commitments made by it in various global forum, so long as they contribute to its forward-march to greatness.
Xi sees the USA and its now rag-tag bunch of alliance partners as the primary stumbling block in China’s path. Hence, he has cleverly used China’s growing economic clout and the increasing inward looking stance of the American population (and by extension the US govt) to build an alternate narrative where China, at worst, could be one of the two global super powers, and potentially even the leader of a not-such-a-free world as the US continues to vacillate in its role as a global policeman.
While Kevin doesn’t seem to be dewy-eyed about China and it’s means to power, he seems to have a rather romantic view of China’s destined path. Just as China has builds its global ambitions through its economic prowess, it is the same economy which may prove to be its undoing. Internal economic and social contradictions, combined with an increasingly hostile global market (for Chinese goods and philosophy) have resulted in a scenario where China is sitting on a powder-keg and the match is held by a leadership which has total belief in its own infallibility.
Will the USA and China will figure out a framework with which to manage their increasingly contradictory and conflicting relationship or will they drag all of us into another war, with countless and senseless loss of lives, or maybe we continue to lurch forward in this environment of uncertainly. The answers will only come with time.
Till then, we can only speculate and watch the games from the sidelines. And of course attempt to understand the conundrums facing these two countries though the eyes of Kevin Rudd.
PS: By sheer omission, the book also highlights the extreme irrelevance that India has in the larger geo-political dialogue to any neutral observer.
August 14, 2022
"it was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable"
Thuycydides's trap is whenever a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, a violent clash is inevitable. Historically, this has been the rule, not the exception.
Kevin Rudd was a previous prime minister in 2007 for Australia (no consensus on whether he was good or bad). And basically the only Western leader ever to be fluent in Chinese. He's a bit of a scholar and recently talks a lot about US-Chinese relations. This book is his gatherings from his analysis and his own Chinese connections as a neutral voice.
3 factors have changed the game in the US-China relationship.
- The economic, military and technological lead of the US is closing
- Xi Jinping's rise to power in 2014 and his new direction for China
- Trump's responses to a more assertive China during his presidency in 2017
This book goes in particular to the Xi Jinping factor, his motives, desires and all. Kev asserts that to avoid a war you must know the other's motives. War isn't good, the worse cases will be bloody and catastrophic. It's also good because I reckon most westerners never engage with the Chinese point of view.
I like the book because this isn't an assertion on which political-economic system is more moral, but the practical challenges of both (Xi Jinping's in particular) in steering his country to achieve his goals. He describes his approach in this book as "deeply realist".
The book is dense as hell, a dozen latin phrases, new vocabularly, heaps of international organisations, basic economics, geography knowledge are kinda needed to have an enriched reading. But also requires a bit more brain power than what I normally use when reading fiction. When my eyes start to glaze you can miss the golden nuggets so I spent a lot of time rereading passages. That's my main reason for the 3 star, this book is a bit hard, but still good. I learnt a fuck ton and this has changed my view of the incoming decade.
I wouldn't read this book if you are susceptible of being a doomer, it doesn't look that good right now for the western world order, but he ends with the guardrails required to avoid the war, suggestions for both the US and China.
Thuycydides's trap is whenever a rising power threatens to displace a ruling power, a violent clash is inevitable. Historically, this has been the rule, not the exception.
Kevin Rudd was a previous prime minister in 2007 for Australia (no consensus on whether he was good or bad). And basically the only Western leader ever to be fluent in Chinese. He's a bit of a scholar and recently talks a lot about US-Chinese relations. This book is his gatherings from his analysis and his own Chinese connections as a neutral voice.
3 factors have changed the game in the US-China relationship.
- The economic, military and technological lead of the US is closing
- Xi Jinping's rise to power in 2014 and his new direction for China
- Trump's responses to a more assertive China during his presidency in 2017
This book goes in particular to the Xi Jinping factor, his motives, desires and all. Kev asserts that to avoid a war you must know the other's motives. War isn't good, the worse cases will be bloody and catastrophic. It's also good because I reckon most westerners never engage with the Chinese point of view.
I like the book because this isn't an assertion on which political-economic system is more moral, but the practical challenges of both (Xi Jinping's in particular) in steering his country to achieve his goals. He describes his approach in this book as "deeply realist".
The book is dense as hell, a dozen latin phrases, new vocabularly, heaps of international organisations, basic economics, geography knowledge are kinda needed to have an enriched reading. But also requires a bit more brain power than what I normally use when reading fiction. When my eyes start to glaze you can miss the golden nuggets so I spent a lot of time rereading passages. That's my main reason for the 3 star, this book is a bit hard, but still good. I learnt a fuck ton and this has changed my view of the incoming decade.
I wouldn't read this book if you are susceptible of being a doomer, it doesn't look that good right now for the western world order, but he ends with the guardrails required to avoid the war, suggestions for both the US and China.
April 5, 2022
A methodical examination of China's expanding imperial trajectory and how it stacks up against the US. Some of Xi Jinping's 10 circles felt a bit rambly.
Kevin has a gift for being unconsciously hilarious. For example, in the chapter 'America's emerging strategic response to Xi Jinping's China' where he provides an earnest strategic analysis of Trump's tweet diplomacy. Lol.
Kevin has a gift for being unconsciously hilarious. For example, in the chapter 'America's emerging strategic response to Xi Jinping's China' where he provides an earnest strategic analysis of Trump's tweet diplomacy. Lol.
June 8, 2024
Kevin Rudd schreibt in seinem Buch trocken, aber auf den Punkt eine Analyse der Beziehungen von China und den USA.
Welche Konfliktherde gibt es, welche nationalen Interessen und Ziele bestehen, wie haben sich die Beziehungen in den letzten 8 Jahren (vor allem unter Trump und Biden) entwickelt und welche Rolle spielt der Globale Süden und die EU in der ganzen Sache.
Auch die Gefahr von begrenzten Konflikten oder Kriegen beschreibt er detailliert.
Sein Vorschlag eines gemeinsamen Strategischen Rahmens, mit Roten Linien, Wettbewerb, aber auch Kooperation, wo es für beide Nationen von nationalem Interesse ist finde ich grundlegend überzeugend und spannend. Allerdings ist das auch hier keine Lösung, die einfach umzusetzen oder perfekt ist. Aber es ist eine Idee wie in Zukunft ein Krieg oder andere Stellvertreterkonflikte, wie wir sie teilweise aus Zeiten des Kalten Krieges kennen, vermieden werden kann.
Ich persönlich fand das Buch streckenweise etwas anstrengend und langwierig zu lesen. Nichtsdestotrotz gibt es von mir 5/5 Sternen für die inhaltliche präzise Analyse und die spannenden Vorschläge.
Eine Empfehlung für alle die Interesse an internationaler Politik haben!
Welche Konfliktherde gibt es, welche nationalen Interessen und Ziele bestehen, wie haben sich die Beziehungen in den letzten 8 Jahren (vor allem unter Trump und Biden) entwickelt und welche Rolle spielt der Globale Süden und die EU in der ganzen Sache.
Auch die Gefahr von begrenzten Konflikten oder Kriegen beschreibt er detailliert.
Sein Vorschlag eines gemeinsamen Strategischen Rahmens, mit Roten Linien, Wettbewerb, aber auch Kooperation, wo es für beide Nationen von nationalem Interesse ist finde ich grundlegend überzeugend und spannend. Allerdings ist das auch hier keine Lösung, die einfach umzusetzen oder perfekt ist. Aber es ist eine Idee wie in Zukunft ein Krieg oder andere Stellvertreterkonflikte, wie wir sie teilweise aus Zeiten des Kalten Krieges kennen, vermieden werden kann.
Ich persönlich fand das Buch streckenweise etwas anstrengend und langwierig zu lesen. Nichtsdestotrotz gibt es von mir 5/5 Sternen für die inhaltliche präzise Analyse und die spannenden Vorschläge.
Eine Empfehlung für alle die Interesse an internationaler Politik haben!
February 25, 2023
Great book from somebody who really knows what goes on in Beijing and Washington. In a world where West is quite ignorant of Eastern views, this books brings clear ideas and gives hope about the future.
July 21, 2022
This book proves Kevin Rudd is still one of the leading analysts on the China-US relationship. While other commentators (often with no academic or professional experience on China, trade, diplomacy or geopolitics) spout alarmist or extremist opinions, Rudd methodically and clinically sets out China's strategic and economic priorities; the evolution of the China-US relationship; and permutations for the relationship that could occur in the 2020s.
The only drawback is Rudd's very particular and precise form of writing, likely a result from his long career in the Australian foreign service, which can get in the way of concisely communicating the point. However, the book is jam-packed with so much detail and insight that I barely noticed this issue and finished the book quickly enough.
Very much aimed at an American audience (Rudd admits this in the book) but Australians will get a lot out of this given the importance of our relationships with the United States and with China. I enjoyed the numerous Mandarin phrases and sayings, they added colour to the book and illustrated the Chinese way of thinking on critical matters.
The only drawback is Rudd's very particular and precise form of writing, likely a result from his long career in the Australian foreign service, which can get in the way of concisely communicating the point. However, the book is jam-packed with so much detail and insight that I barely noticed this issue and finished the book quickly enough.
Very much aimed at an American audience (Rudd admits this in the book) but Australians will get a lot out of this given the importance of our relationships with the United States and with China. I enjoyed the numerous Mandarin phrases and sayings, they added colour to the book and illustrated the Chinese way of thinking on critical matters.
June 13, 2022
Wanted to like this more than I did because I think Kevin Rudd has truly spent his political and academic career seeking to understand both China and the United States. However, the book is mistitled. 90 percent of the it is about Xi Jinping and--at best--10 percent is about how to avoid war. More problematic is his choice to not use footnotes. I wouldn't have cared that much if there weren't statements that I believe to be false. Still lots of great stuff in here, but could have been executed better.
September 14, 2022
I can only give three stars to this book mainly because I disagree with what Rudd elaborated in Chapters 16 and 17.
Kevin Rudd, 陸克文, Is a former Australian diplomat and Prime Minister. He graduated from Australian National University with honours in Chinese language and Chinese history. He spent a couple of years in Taipei to continue his Chinese studies. In his early diplomatic career, he was appointed Second Secretary at the Australian Embassy in Beijing and promoted to First Secretary later.
From 1998 to 2013, he started his political career as a federal Member of Parliament. He assumed the shadow minister, the opposition leader, the Australian Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister. His academic, professional experiences and fluent Mandarin have undoubtfully earned him one of the most knowledgeable political analysts and commentators in China trade, diplomacy, and geopolitics among western politicians.
Rudd began the book with a brief history of the US-China relationship. He then methodically detailed Xi Jinping’s worldview with ten concentric circles of interest, starting from the most important regarding Xi’s position in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to other domestic political priorities and his international aspirations for the country. He analysed various factors, motives, and desires influencing Xi and the impacts on world affairs from his worldview. The list of Xi’s worldviews was Rudd’s conclusions from all his conversations with many Chinese interlocutors and other sources over many years.
The book also presented various scenarios of how the US or China prevailed or ended in stalemate on different battlefields of conflict. In each scenario, Rudd projected the consequences it could have on the US, China, and the rest of the world. Finally, Rudd laid out possible solutions to navigate the uncertain future and avoid the war through what he called “managed strategic competition”.
However, this can’t be an excellent book for a reader like me with a profound legacy with the island where the possible war to be avoided between the US and China. It is my home country, an island 145-177 kilometres from China.
I have been a Taiwanese-Australian for half of my life. My former employer, one of the leading American multinational corporations, assigned me to Beijing as an expatriate to live and work with China’s top State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) for several years. After the assignment, I continued to work with these SOEs for another decade.
Even though Rudd is one of the very few politicians with deep insights into CCP, he still made similar mistakes in this book that most western politicians would have frequently committed. In my viewpoint, he could not believe what CCP said to him.
When Rudd finished the book, the following events had not happened.
• 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
No one would foresee that the world's unquestioned second most potent military power would not win the war quickly enough. Instead, Russia could lose the war after seven months of battle.
China has learned and followed Russia in building its military power and has not been involved in major military conflicts in recent decades. Do Rudd and his think tank believe China has the military prowess to fight the US and its allies?
If Russia can’t win this war, China will become the major public enemy of the liberal democratic alliance.
• Economic Sanctions against Russia
If China invades Taiwan, sanctions may be imposed on China, as is the case with Russia, that invaded Ukraine. Neutral Switzerland would adopt EU sanctions to quickly identify and freeze corrupted Chinese assets.
Over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan. It is possible that Taiwan and its allies could destroy state-of-the-art semiconductor fabrication plants. The destruction of critical plants and the interruption of shipments would bring about a global economic calamity.
• Shinzo Abe’s assassination on July 8
Before Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated, he said several times, “A Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency, and therefore a contingency for the Japan-U.S. alliance….” He reflected that Japan and Taiwan must work together to protect freedom and democracy.
His assassination can likely urge Japan to increase its military spending and take a more proactive strategy against China. However, if the US unleashes Japan to step up its defence, this switch can become China’s nightmare.
• China’s economy – zero-COVID policy and collapsing housing market
According to reports from multiple resources, China’s economy is in serious trouble. If China can only maintain a 3-4% or lower GDP growth in the foreseeable future, CCP won’t sustain a considerable military and public security budget of around $450 billion annually.
After the Chinese civil war ended in 1949, CCP gained control of mainland China and established the People’s Republic of China, forcing the Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Shek of the Republic of China to retreat to Taiwan.
In my generation of education, we were taught Chinese history; we were told we were Chinese. After Taiwan transformed into a liberal-democratic nation in the late 1990s, much fewer Taiwanese alleged they were Chinese because they didn’t want to be associated with a party ruled by either crooks or thugs. Most Taiwanese recognise that CCP is a thuggish regime. There is no love or fantasy for the Taiwanese on a reunion with China, only more hatred and hostility.
Independence movements have swept around the world since World War II ended. More than 100 countries have become independent or have transformed into new nations. Hence, many people wonder why CCP has been sticking to a prehistoric imperial mentality and claiming Taiwan must return to its motherland.
For more than seventy-three years, if CCP could seize Taiwan with military forces, they would have done so. Nevertheless, they could not achieve this. Therefore, they have been bullying people living in Taiwan even though they have not ruled the island one single day. They declared they would resort to a full-scale war to take over the renegade province. In most Taiwanese views, those who claim national rejuvenation and embrace nationalism would serve best the emperor Xi Jinping and provide the legitimacy of CCP ruling.
Scenario 3 Chapter 16 mentions that the Taiwanese army is generally considered undertrained and under-armed. However, international developments are turning in Taiwan’s favour. The US is selling the weapons to Taiwan to defend against an asymmetric war. In wartime, Taiwan could mobilise a counter-invasion force of at least 450,000 troops and probably far more.
If CCP plans to take over Taiwan in 2026/2027, Japan would likely come to Taiwan’s defence, and Japan’s involvement would draw the US into that conflict. According to the latest report, Japan is considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to boost its counterattack capability against China. The missiles would be existing arms modified to extend their range from 100 km to 1,000 km.
Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. The military experts project that 3000-4000 short and middle ranges of missiles targeting China will be deployed across the coasts of Japan and Taiwan. The vessels carrying People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops and equipment would be like sitting ducks crossing Taiwan Strait. China’s invading Taiwan will become a massacre for the Chinese navy.
Hence, in my view, the most likely scenario in chapter 16 of this book will be like
Scenario 5: Washington, Tokyo and Taipei Together Succeed in Deterring Beijing from the Use of Force Against Taiwan – Washington’s Best-Case Scenario.
Most of my Chinese friends, who are not CCP members, always said we could tell what CCP would do. They would only perform the opposite of what they said. The former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that when dealing with CCP, we must distrust and verify their words. Rudd talked highly about CCP in this book and spent 90% of the focus on CCP and Xi Jinping. Was this book written for American readers, or he thought the world was moving in Xi’s favour?
For this reason, if the liberal-democratic world has to distrust and verifies what CCP said, what can the US achieve from engaging in Managed Strategic Competitions with CCP? They will not be fair competition in any strategic competition. Thus, the only strategies that the US can proceed with should cover the following hardline measures.
• Continue to rebuild US military and economic capacity at home and reconsolidate America’s alliance abroad after Trump’s trauma.
• Step up Washington’s efforts to blatantly contain China from advancing in artificial intelligence, semiconductor, biotech, and other technologies.
• Sanction Chinese technology entities linked to CCP’s military organisations.
• Bar imports from Xinjiang over human rights abuse of Uyghurs.
• Decouple with China as much as the US can.
• Move the US manufacturing factories out of China.
The US allies should follow the above actions. Australia should diversify iron ore sales to other countries as much as it can and restrict its export to China. This can mitigate China from building more killing vessels.
Indeed, the US can continue to work with China on issues like supply chain, global financial stability, and climate change. Nevertheless, can we trust that China will become a greenhouse gas emission-zero nation by 2060?
Rudd talked too much in the last chapter of the book. This war could be a bloody World War III. On the other hand, an unwavering approach might be the best and the only option to deal with CCP.
Kevin Rudd, 陸克文, Is a former Australian diplomat and Prime Minister. He graduated from Australian National University with honours in Chinese language and Chinese history. He spent a couple of years in Taipei to continue his Chinese studies. In his early diplomatic career, he was appointed Second Secretary at the Australian Embassy in Beijing and promoted to First Secretary later.
From 1998 to 2013, he started his political career as a federal Member of Parliament. He assumed the shadow minister, the opposition leader, the Australian Prime Minister, and Foreign Minister. His academic, professional experiences and fluent Mandarin have undoubtfully earned him one of the most knowledgeable political analysts and commentators in China trade, diplomacy, and geopolitics among western politicians.
Rudd began the book with a brief history of the US-China relationship. He then methodically detailed Xi Jinping’s worldview with ten concentric circles of interest, starting from the most important regarding Xi’s position in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to other domestic political priorities and his international aspirations for the country. He analysed various factors, motives, and desires influencing Xi and the impacts on world affairs from his worldview. The list of Xi’s worldviews was Rudd’s conclusions from all his conversations with many Chinese interlocutors and other sources over many years.
The book also presented various scenarios of how the US or China prevailed or ended in stalemate on different battlefields of conflict. In each scenario, Rudd projected the consequences it could have on the US, China, and the rest of the world. Finally, Rudd laid out possible solutions to navigate the uncertain future and avoid the war through what he called “managed strategic competition”.
However, this can’t be an excellent book for a reader like me with a profound legacy with the island where the possible war to be avoided between the US and China. It is my home country, an island 145-177 kilometres from China.
I have been a Taiwanese-Australian for half of my life. My former employer, one of the leading American multinational corporations, assigned me to Beijing as an expatriate to live and work with China’s top State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) for several years. After the assignment, I continued to work with these SOEs for another decade.
Even though Rudd is one of the very few politicians with deep insights into CCP, he still made similar mistakes in this book that most western politicians would have frequently committed. In my viewpoint, he could not believe what CCP said to him.
When Rudd finished the book, the following events had not happened.
• 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
No one would foresee that the world's unquestioned second most potent military power would not win the war quickly enough. Instead, Russia could lose the war after seven months of battle.
China has learned and followed Russia in building its military power and has not been involved in major military conflicts in recent decades. Do Rudd and his think tank believe China has the military prowess to fight the US and its allies?
If Russia can’t win this war, China will become the major public enemy of the liberal democratic alliance.
• Economic Sanctions against Russia
If China invades Taiwan, sanctions may be imposed on China, as is the case with Russia, that invaded Ukraine. Neutral Switzerland would adopt EU sanctions to quickly identify and freeze corrupted Chinese assets.
Over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan. It is possible that Taiwan and its allies could destroy state-of-the-art semiconductor fabrication plants. The destruction of critical plants and the interruption of shipments would bring about a global economic calamity.
• Shinzo Abe’s assassination on July 8
Before Japan’s former PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated, he said several times, “A Taiwan contingency is a Japanese contingency, and therefore a contingency for the Japan-U.S. alliance….” He reflected that Japan and Taiwan must work together to protect freedom and democracy.
His assassination can likely urge Japan to increase its military spending and take a more proactive strategy against China. However, if the US unleashes Japan to step up its defence, this switch can become China’s nightmare.
• China’s economy – zero-COVID policy and collapsing housing market
According to reports from multiple resources, China’s economy is in serious trouble. If China can only maintain a 3-4% or lower GDP growth in the foreseeable future, CCP won’t sustain a considerable military and public security budget of around $450 billion annually.
After the Chinese civil war ended in 1949, CCP gained control of mainland China and established the People’s Republic of China, forcing the Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-Shek of the Republic of China to retreat to Taiwan.
In my generation of education, we were taught Chinese history; we were told we were Chinese. After Taiwan transformed into a liberal-democratic nation in the late 1990s, much fewer Taiwanese alleged they were Chinese because they didn’t want to be associated with a party ruled by either crooks or thugs. Most Taiwanese recognise that CCP is a thuggish regime. There is no love or fantasy for the Taiwanese on a reunion with China, only more hatred and hostility.
Independence movements have swept around the world since World War II ended. More than 100 countries have become independent or have transformed into new nations. Hence, many people wonder why CCP has been sticking to a prehistoric imperial mentality and claiming Taiwan must return to its motherland.
For more than seventy-three years, if CCP could seize Taiwan with military forces, they would have done so. Nevertheless, they could not achieve this. Therefore, they have been bullying people living in Taiwan even though they have not ruled the island one single day. They declared they would resort to a full-scale war to take over the renegade province. In most Taiwanese views, those who claim national rejuvenation and embrace nationalism would serve best the emperor Xi Jinping and provide the legitimacy of CCP ruling.
Scenario 3 Chapter 16 mentions that the Taiwanese army is generally considered undertrained and under-armed. However, international developments are turning in Taiwan’s favour. The US is selling the weapons to Taiwan to defend against an asymmetric war. In wartime, Taiwan could mobilise a counter-invasion force of at least 450,000 troops and probably far more.
If CCP plans to take over Taiwan in 2026/2027, Japan would likely come to Taiwan’s defence, and Japan’s involvement would draw the US into that conflict. According to the latest report, Japan is considering the deployment of 1,000 long-range cruise missiles to boost its counterattack capability against China. The missiles would be existing arms modified to extend their range from 100 km to 1,000 km.
Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. The military experts project that 3000-4000 short and middle ranges of missiles targeting China will be deployed across the coasts of Japan and Taiwan. The vessels carrying People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops and equipment would be like sitting ducks crossing Taiwan Strait. China’s invading Taiwan will become a massacre for the Chinese navy.
Hence, in my view, the most likely scenario in chapter 16 of this book will be like
Scenario 5: Washington, Tokyo and Taipei Together Succeed in Deterring Beijing from the Use of Force Against Taiwan – Washington’s Best-Case Scenario.
Most of my Chinese friends, who are not CCP members, always said we could tell what CCP would do. They would only perform the opposite of what they said. The former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that when dealing with CCP, we must distrust and verify their words. Rudd talked highly about CCP in this book and spent 90% of the focus on CCP and Xi Jinping. Was this book written for American readers, or he thought the world was moving in Xi’s favour?
For this reason, if the liberal-democratic world has to distrust and verifies what CCP said, what can the US achieve from engaging in Managed Strategic Competitions with CCP? They will not be fair competition in any strategic competition. Thus, the only strategies that the US can proceed with should cover the following hardline measures.
• Continue to rebuild US military and economic capacity at home and reconsolidate America’s alliance abroad after Trump’s trauma.
• Step up Washington’s efforts to blatantly contain China from advancing in artificial intelligence, semiconductor, biotech, and other technologies.
• Sanction Chinese technology entities linked to CCP’s military organisations.
• Bar imports from Xinjiang over human rights abuse of Uyghurs.
• Decouple with China as much as the US can.
• Move the US manufacturing factories out of China.
The US allies should follow the above actions. Australia should diversify iron ore sales to other countries as much as it can and restrict its export to China. This can mitigate China from building more killing vessels.
Indeed, the US can continue to work with China on issues like supply chain, global financial stability, and climate change. Nevertheless, can we trust that China will become a greenhouse gas emission-zero nation by 2060?
Rudd talked too much in the last chapter of the book. This war could be a bloody World War III. On the other hand, an unwavering approach might be the best and the only option to deal with CCP.
October 31, 2023
Fascinating book with a bold proposal.
This book is a look at China, mostly, and does a fantastic job of updating, building on and building out the arguments in Nathan and Scobell's "China's search for security"
But it does so much more than that.
It updates those concepts, drawing on the authors personal experience and examining the specific context of Xi Jinping and China's leadership.
The book is best where it leverages that experience - its coverage of Xi thought, the internal security challenges and environmental challenges is provoking and well written. And while it does sometimes verge on gratuitous - some of the personal anecdotes shared by the author felt like braggadocio - these are few and rare.
The proposed strategic framework of the author is bold, audacious but surely out of reach. The chapter to explain it is long and felt labourious to make my way through - theres maybe 5-6 parts on how much of an advantage the strategic framework is for different parties. Its an interesting idea, but seems impractical. Then again, that's how all bold ideas start isn't it?
The two weaknesses of the book are its treatment of climate change and of US domestic politics. Predictions of "China will be X by 2050", which are made throughout the book, seem bizarre in a world where that's when the most severe effects of catastrophic climate change will have occurred . And the idea of a bipartisan response in US domestic politics seems to miss the autocratic project that US republicans are hell bent on prosecuting. But I don't fault the book for this - the book centres on China, and it does it well.
Overall this was a great read, well research and a bold idea, perhaps the right one for a fractious age.
This book is a look at China, mostly, and does a fantastic job of updating, building on and building out the arguments in Nathan and Scobell's "China's search for security"
But it does so much more than that.
It updates those concepts, drawing on the authors personal experience and examining the specific context of Xi Jinping and China's leadership.
The book is best where it leverages that experience - its coverage of Xi thought, the internal security challenges and environmental challenges is provoking and well written. And while it does sometimes verge on gratuitous - some of the personal anecdotes shared by the author felt like braggadocio - these are few and rare.
The proposed strategic framework of the author is bold, audacious but surely out of reach. The chapter to explain it is long and felt labourious to make my way through - theres maybe 5-6 parts on how much of an advantage the strategic framework is for different parties. Its an interesting idea, but seems impractical. Then again, that's how all bold ideas start isn't it?
The two weaknesses of the book are its treatment of climate change and of US domestic politics. Predictions of "China will be X by 2050", which are made throughout the book, seem bizarre in a world where that's when the most severe effects of catastrophic climate change will have occurred . And the idea of a bipartisan response in US domestic politics seems to miss the autocratic project that US republicans are hell bent on prosecuting. But I don't fault the book for this - the book centres on China, and it does it well.
Overall this was a great read, well research and a bold idea, perhaps the right one for a fractious age.
November 10, 2022
Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd may appear an unlikely authority on the prospects of war between the U.S. and China. However, having lived and worked in China, speaking fluent Mandarin, and studying China for over 40 years makes him a ver credible analyst on the topic. A war between the two nations would be terrible and catastrophic, but unfortunately, not unthinkable. Rudd details the complexities of the relationship via military power, economic might, historical grievances, and the like with uncanny insight and sobering analysis. If geopolitical disaster is to be avoided by the two superpowers—and Rudd thinks this is possible—the relationship could be managed and handled by a multi-point plan Rudd ensconces via ‘managed strategic competition.’ For China scholars, this is definitely a volume to read, understand and contemplate.
May 19, 2023
Very interesting book on the nuances of the US-China relationship and especially on Chinese domestic politics.
There was a surprising lack of discussion regarding the strategic importance of Taiwan due to its sole dominance of the production of the most advanced semi-conductors. Especially the chapter looking at different future scenarios, in which the profound ramifications of a Chinese annexation of Taiwan on the global economy were not discussed at all, felt a bit unfinished.
Overall though, the book has given me much greater appreciation of Chinese national and international priorities and challenges.
There was a surprising lack of discussion regarding the strategic importance of Taiwan due to its sole dominance of the production of the most advanced semi-conductors. Especially the chapter looking at different future scenarios, in which the profound ramifications of a Chinese annexation of Taiwan on the global economy were not discussed at all, felt a bit unfinished.
Overall though, the book has given me much greater appreciation of Chinese national and international priorities and challenges.
December 5, 2022
A dense book with a pile of assumed history and geopolitics knowledge dumped on top. Much of what was assumed I never learnt about at school and sent me down a million rabbit holes. My search history now includes everything from the Korean War and Mao's Great Leap Forward to geopolitical realism and the G7.
K Rudd also tries to explain Xi Jinping's perspective on the world but ends up in a meticulous analysis of China as a whole. I enjoyed hearing Rudd's thoughts and opinions, but as a casual reader, I thought much of the rest of the book could be cut out and summarised.
K Rudd also tries to explain Xi Jinping's perspective on the world but ends up in a meticulous analysis of China as a whole. I enjoyed hearing Rudd's thoughts and opinions, but as a casual reader, I thought much of the rest of the book could be cut out and summarised.
June 6, 2024
Hear, hear! for a mutually agreed strategic framework for avoiding war while preserving a principle peace!! Why can’t we all just…avoid war🥴
A good & unbiased entry to better understanding the tensions between China & the US. Probably more engaging & definitely way cheaper than my degree was 🤭 But at points, it was getting a little too lectuery for me, so naturally, the vibes of class readings lore had me tuning out & needing to go back in parts, oopsy. While it took me a bit to get through, overall, I feel I have a bit more of a grip on the situation & that’s a win!
A good & unbiased entry to better understanding the tensions between China & the US. Probably more engaging & definitely way cheaper than my degree was 🤭 But at points, it was getting a little too lectuery for me, so naturally, the vibes of class readings lore had me tuning out & needing to go back in parts, oopsy. While it took me a bit to get through, overall, I feel I have a bit more of a grip on the situation & that’s a win!
February 18, 2023
I would say this is an enjoyable read. It presents a realistic picture of Chinese ambitions for the next 10-15 years especially in the context of what Xi Jinping wants.
It made me feel more sympathetic towards China's actions and although I do not necessarily agree with what they are doing, I understand what informs their decision especially considering their history.
It's written in a way that is easy to understand and doesn't require too much prior knowledge to enjoy it.
Pick it up!
It made me feel more sympathetic towards China's actions and although I do not necessarily agree with what they are doing, I understand what informs their decision especially considering their history.
It's written in a way that is easy to understand and doesn't require too much prior knowledge to enjoy it.
Pick it up!
July 8, 2022
Kevin provides an interesting overview of China both past and present which provides an interesting framework for thinking about China's place on the geo-political stage in the present day. Although he does go into too much detail at times and provides superfluous detail which can distract from the otherwise excellent points he makes in this book.
May 28, 2023
Great primer for looking at US/ PRC relations. Kevin Rudd has such unique background on the topic and he lays everything out as he sees it in a simple way. Only gripe is I was hoping a book by a former Australian Prime Minister would have a bit more about the Australian perspective but it was definitely written for an American audience, he even explicitly states that a few times.
October 10, 2023
This was really interesting and insightful. I’ve read a lot about China written by Americans, but this one is written by an Australian who has spent significant time in both America and China. His focus was on education and avoiding war. I had a chance to go to a reception at his residence recently l, which made this book even more interesting.
March 2, 2025
This book is both fascinating and deeply alarming . The author, has extensive experience in dealing with both China and the US and provides a detailed analysis of their political and strategic mindsets.
One of the most interesting aspects of the book is its insight into how the CCP views the world. The methods it employs to shape its people, manipulate its neighbors, and extend its influence globally is frightening. The immense level of control and longterm planning the Party exercises is both impressive and terrifying (As a person who studied USSR history a lot, I’m wondering how it still works).
At the same time, in the news we see how Red American king weakens alliances, alienates friends, and undermines the very economic foundations that have made the country strong.
This internal mess, coupled with China’s aggressive expansionism, paints a grim picture for the future of the free world.
And yet, history offers a reminder that authoritarian regimes, no matter how monolithic they appear, often collapse faster than anyone expects. The Soviet Union once seemed like an unshakable force—until it wasn’t.
One of the most interesting aspects of the book is its insight into how the CCP views the world. The methods it employs to shape its people, manipulate its neighbors, and extend its influence globally is frightening. The immense level of control and longterm planning the Party exercises is both impressive and terrifying (As a person who studied USSR history a lot, I’m wondering how it still works).
At the same time, in the news we see how Red American king weakens alliances, alienates friends, and undermines the very economic foundations that have made the country strong.
This internal mess, coupled with China’s aggressive expansionism, paints a grim picture for the future of the free world.
And yet, history offers a reminder that authoritarian regimes, no matter how monolithic they appear, often collapse faster than anyone expects. The Soviet Union once seemed like an unshakable force—until it wasn’t.
April 16, 2025
Ended up skimming portions of this book since it was published in 2022 (likely written in late 2020-2021) and I'm reading it in 2025, when several of Rudd's predictions can be said, with some assurance, to have not come true. It includes some history of China's modern politics and some decent attempts to predict what would happen, but fails in other accounts. The majority of the book is spent on Xi Jinping's policy goals and very light on analysis of America's policy towards China, which is an odd choice for a book that it is about a potential war between the two countries.
June 22, 2024
A very insightful and balanced book, 4.5/5.
As someone who doesn't support the USA blindly, nor remain naive about the growing power of the brutal authoritarian regime that is the CCP in China, I felt like this book was pretty straight down the line. It didn't really seem to take any side, but simply painted the reality of the world from each perspective, and the historical and economical reasons why certain realities are realities.
There's no easy solution for the future, but if the powers that be can come to some kind of effective manageable competition, the world stands a chance to make it through the coming end of the American epoch. Let's hope cool heads prevail.
As someone who doesn't support the USA blindly, nor remain naive about the growing power of the brutal authoritarian regime that is the CCP in China, I felt like this book was pretty straight down the line. It didn't really seem to take any side, but simply painted the reality of the world from each perspective, and the historical and economical reasons why certain realities are realities.
There's no easy solution for the future, but if the powers that be can come to some kind of effective manageable competition, the world stands a chance to make it through the coming end of the American epoch. Let's hope cool heads prevail.
August 23, 2023
This book is a highly relevant read discussing the current intense relations between the US and China. It closely followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine, making its timeliness and relevance quite evident.
June 4, 2022
A great read and a different perspective on the China - US relations. This relationship is generally told from an American pov but I enjoyed that it was focused on China and Chinese interests for the majority. A great work from former PM for Australia.
May 25, 2022
I’ll be honest that I only bought this book because I had the opportunity to get it signed. However, this being said, Kevin Rudd provides a deeply insightful account of several things. Firstly, he explains the historical context that informs Xi Jinping’s - and China’s more broadly - worldview. Secondly, he creates a structure in which to analyse the way Xi operates and thinks about the world. Finally, he explores the ways in which tensions between China and the US could come to blows in the coming decade and examines how they could be avoided.
An insightful read for any and all nerds of global politics to read.
An insightful read for any and all nerds of global politics to read.
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