Interesting book, provided basic concepts on asset allocation and modern portfolio theory.
Some notes:
A. Introduction
1. why?
- Reduce overall portfolio risk
- Eliminate unique and specific risk related to a single security
- Keep all costs and taxes as low as possible
- Keep financial targets on track
-> Minimize risks and maximize returns
2. Some guidelines
- Risks can come from many aspects of life.
- Design portfolio (Investment policy statement) is important. Stick to it is even more important.
- 3 types of asset allocation: strategic allocation (buy-and-hold), tactical allocation and market timing
B. Investment planning (IPS): a must-have
- Create a plan -> Implement it -> Maintain it with some suitable adjustments
- A plan has: financial needs, investment goals, asset allocation, investment selection description and the reasons
- Asset classes classified based on discretion and liquidity:
+ Cash accounts for living expenses and emergencies (checking accounts, saving accounts, money market fund)
+ Discretionary long-term liquid investment (mutual funds, ETF, CDs, bonds, annuities)
+ Discretionary long-term illiquid assets (homes, properties, business, collectibles)
+ Non-discretionary assets (pension, social security, restricted stock)
+ Dicretionary speculative (commodities, stocks)
- Asset classes can be classified further in sub-categories like styles (growth, value)
investment rating (grade), market cap size, sectors (industry sectors, geographical sectors, ...)...
-> Should understand different kinds of asset classes, their characteristics (risk and return), the correlation between them.
-> Select an asset allocation mix that best suits financial targets and also best investments representing each asset class
-> There is no perfect investment plan, do not over-analyze
C. Risk and return
- There is no risk-free investment. T-bill is 'risk-free' but heavily affected by inflation and tax -> purchasing power decreases
- There are many ways to define risk:
+ Risk means losing money
+ Risk is to not achieve financial goals
+ Risk is volatility of price or return over a specified period
- Volatility is measure in units of standard deviation around the data average (normal distribution - bell-shaped)
- The order of asset class volatility: T-bill has the lowest volatility (less risky)
-> government bonds -> corporate bonds -> blue chips stocks -> small-cap stocks
- Annualize return (compounded return): all returns have some level of dependence on each other
- Simple average return: normal average return
-> The greater in standard deviation, the more different between these kinds of returns
-> The less volatility, the higher compounded return
D. Asset allocation basic concepts
- Total portfolio risk = Systematic risk (market risk or beta) + Unsystematic risk (Unique stock-specific risk)
- Diversification: the greater the number of stocks spread across all industry sectors,
the lower the unique stock-specific risk each stock has on overall portfolio return
- Rebalancing: get the portfolio back to its original asset allocation target
-> calendar-based or percentage-based implementation
-> reduce annual volatility of the portfolio
-> a way to do diversification
-> Sell a percentage of assets that outperforms and buy more of assets that do not
- Correlation(range from -1 to 1): the trend of two investments (one goes up whhereas the other goes down, or they both go the same way)
- Correlation between investments is dynamic. It changes from time to time.
-> All stock markets tend to have high correlation. Stocks and bonds(or bills or notes) often have low correlation.
-> Need to diversify in investments that have negative correlation (just in theory) or non-correlation/low correlation
By that, the stock-specific risk can be decreased.
-> High correlation investments means no diversification at all.
-> watch out for an optimal number of different investments. The more investments, the more maintainance costs (author suggestion: 12)
- Risk and return efficient frontier: a chart analyzes risk and return when mix 2 asset classes together
-> Adding multiple asset classes -> efficient frontier goes close to 'northwest quadrant' area (highest return with lowest risk)
-> reduce overall portfolio risk
E. A Framework for asset class selection
4 Stpes process:
1. Determine the portfolio risk based on: financial needs(required rate of return, time horizon, ...) and risk tolerance.
2. Select assets classes that fit the portfolio risk based on: unique risk, expected return, past correlation, tax efficiency.
3. Select best investments to represent each chosen asset classes.
4. Implement that asset allocation plan. Maintain and rebalance to control risk and enhance return.
-> Select asset classes that have
+ fundamental differences from each other (different categories, styles, market cap, rating, sector...)
-> avoid the overlapping (like funds have the same stocks) between asset classes
-> avoid asset classes have high correlation (like stocks in a same field)
-> analyze rolling correlation: how often correlation between asset classes shift together and by how much.
+ real expected return: higher return than inflation rate over time.
+ easy access with low cost
-> with funds: look for low expense ratio (shoule be around 0.5% annually), no sales load (redemption fee)
F. Portfolio management
1. Determining realistic market expectations
-> Personal expected return needs to be in line with the market expected return
-> The need for forecasting market expected return (with relative accuracy). Based mostly on historical data.
** Model 1: Risk-adjusted return (bottom-up method)
- Volatility (acdemically defined as risk) is actually an indication of some economic risk.
- Over time, general asset class volatility return remains relatively stable.
-> Predict future exptected return for a asset class relatively to another asset
based on the volatility differences between those assets.
- Every investment has a unique risk. Basic expected return formula:
-> Total expected return = risk-free rate of return return + risk premium
-> Total expected return (nominal return) = Real expected return + Inflation rate
+ T-bill expected return = expected inflation risk (over maturity period) + real risk-free rate of return
+ T-bond expected return = T-bill return + term risk premium (interest risk premium)
+ Corporate bond expected return = T-bond return + credit risk premium
+ Equity expected return = Corporate bond long-term expected return + equity risk premium
+ Small-cap value stock expected return = Equity market expected return + small-cap premium + value premium
- There are so many factors contributing to the equity risk.
Each industry, style, sector, ... has a different risk (See other notes)
** Model 2: Economic factor forecasting (top-down method)
- Corporate earnings growth reflects in economic growth (GDP growth)
-> Predict future expected return base on earning growth
- Equity expected return = EPS growth + cash dividends + valuation change
+ Corporate earnings are a derivative from GDP growth
Earnings growth can infer from GDP per capita.
+ Cash dividends are paid out from earnings.
Pay-out ratio depends on many factors: economic outlook, investment oppoturnities, business policy...
+ Valuation change reflects into P/E.
Basically, P/E tends to move in the opposite direction as inflation rate does.
P/E is affected by market sentiment or investor earnings expectations.
-> The higher those factors, the higher expected return.
- Fixed income expected return = yield at purchase + change in yield
Change in yield = inflation rate change + real risk-free rate change (after inflation) + credit spread change
2. Building approriate portfolio
- Build portfolio based on life cycle characteristics as: early savers, midlife accumulators, transitional retirees, mature retirees
- Consider all possible factors that can affect the portfolio:
financial goals, career progress, family situation, risk tolerance, investing experience, health issues,
living expenses, personal strengths and weaknesses, behavior habits, ...
- For example: for a early saver, an approriate portfolio consists of 70% equity and 30% fixed income instruments
- A simple strategy called "your age in bond". For example, 30-year-old should have 30% asset in bonds, 70% in equity
3. Considering behavioral finance affect
- Financial markets are not the cause of investment plan failure, but investors behaviors and emotions.
- Some interesting notes on behviors of investors and pepole in general:
+ Care too much about current information, not long-term fundamentals.
+ Recognize "good" or "bad" investments based on the current price compared to the paid price.
+ Tend to buy investments which have recent good performance.
+ Tend to be overconfident of their information and knowledge.
+ Tend to be over optimistic when markets start to go up, and over pessimistic when markets start to go down.
+ Reluctant to admit errors on judgement.
- Be careful about your investment behaviors.
- Find out how much risk tolerance you can handle using:
+ Risk tolerance questionaire: find out the maximum risk tolerance.
+ Asset allocation stress test: list some specific or extreme cases and what should do in those cases.
-> Try to find out the actual risk tolerance that you can take.
-> Do not assume risk above your tolerance: it can make you abandon your investment plan someday.
- Rebalance the portfolio to reduce risk and increase diversification.
4. Making adjustment on asset allocation plan
-> Do not change asset allocation plan solely based on emotions (especially when markets go down).
-> Change only when personal financial goals/needs/situations change, have an assessment mistake or need to change risk tolerance level
- Things to do when times are tough:
+ Reality check: Income from investments is stable even markets go down?
Annual expenses can be covered by cash flow from dividends, interest, ...?
-> If yes, do not change asset allocation.
+ If still feel risky after reality check, -> sell 10% of equity, or even sell another 10% (an that's it)
5. Controlling fees, costs and taxes
- Keep investment costs (transaction cost, broker fee, commission) as low as possible.
- Manage a efficient tax strategy.
+ Some types of account are taxable (stocks), some tax-deferred (pension, social security), some tax free (municipal bonds)
+ Different investments have different tax brackets: corporate bond interest has higher tax rate than stock dividend.
-> Distribute approriate investments across these types of tax location
+ Use tax swapping and tax lots by DCA (dollar costing averaging) strategy
- If need to go with funds, choose unmanaged passive index funds with tax efficiency and low expense cost.