As global macro traders we are paid to get these calls right. Think George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller.
Equity experts will do a tremendous amount of work in understanding how a company operates. A macro expert tends to do the same, but on countries, not companies. The Holy Grail of macro is finding an imbalance. Maybe it’s related to growth, or interest rates, or a central bank’s reaction function, and then profiting from the moves in that country’s interest rates, or foreign exchange, or equity, or credit markets.
we macro traders have unique jobs. We are not paid to do anything productive for society. We are paid to turn a pile of money into a bigger pile of money. We are paid to compound wealth, generate alpha, deliver absolute returns
- Kobe beef sliced thin with ponzu sauce
- Hokusetsu Onigoroshi
- 1.8L bottles of liquid love
the Eeyore of the markets, negative on everything all the time
before the ‘08 crisis, before the tide went out, he made some of the greatest calls possible
One time, we were shown a deal from a guy in Los Angeles. It looked like a sure thing. A three-Sharpe-ratio business looking to grow. But the Rabbi was on it and told us to stay away. This Los Angeles guy had put all of his friends and family into it, for a small finder’s fee of course.
That bright-eyed, bushy-tailed stuff wears off fast in this business.
He often rants to me about what could have been. “You know, when I graduated and decided to go to Wall Street, we were supposed to be the next masters of the universe. These tech guys cramped in their parent’s basements not getting laid, while we were working eighty-hour weeks, shuttling around in black cars, client dinners at Nobu and Peter Luger’s, tables at the best clubs. We were busting our asses while they designed new photo filters and poop emojis. All nonsense. Except it wasn’t. They all got really rich.”
When the Rabbi is talking, everyone is pin-drop silent.
“Jerry, what did you learn from Liar’s Poker?”
“To watch the two-year, Boss.”
“What happens if you don’t watch the two-year?”
“If you don’t pay attention to the two-year, you get your fuckin’ face ripped off.”
Trading desks are no longer like the ones in the movie Wall Street. They’re not two old IBM box sets and a bunch of phones. Trading desks have evolved. The best execution guys now want their own sports books, something Derek Stevens would be proud of. They want walls of computer screens so high they block access and draw attention from fire marshals. Elias currently has a bank of nine screens in stacks that are three screens wide. He wants more. It’s all a big dick measuring contest. I know guys who have given their set-ups nicknames such as Death Star or Millennium Falcon.
JFK airport is a dump. The highway into the city looks like a war zone, and the car I’m in feels as if it has no shocks or suspension. Shit. I can barely hold my phone to my ear there are so many bumps
I guess experience has taught me that too much of a good thing isn’t really a good thing at all. It’s all sitting on a knife’s edge. If it weren’t for the central banks the markets would crash hard.
My annoyance comes through in my tone. I’m going to need to keep this a bit shorter than usual due to my meeting schedule.
The bubble all started in the late 1980s but really ramped in the 2000s, when the world moved away from rational thinking, away from Markowitz and modern portfolio theory to Pets.com. Alan Greenspan, the top guy at the Fed in those days
Greenspan gave us low interest rates. They dubbed it “lower for longer.” But this was really just lighter fluid on a fire. It told people to get greedy. I’m not talking about everyday risk taking and speculation, normal human greed. I’m not even talking about Gordon Gekko in the ‘80s. This is much more than “greed is good.” I’m talking about steal as much as you can, and if you’re wrong, we’ll bail you out.
I tell Jerry to go watch The Big Short. “Watch the bathtub scene and learn about these things,” I say.
“This is the age-old debate of wages versus capital. The rich folks live off their capital, which is invested in the markets. Everyone else lives off wages.
Okay, enough for now. I have to get to the rest of my meetings.”
Most people are taking a step backward. They try to create the illusion that it’s not happening, that they’re actually moving forward, sort of like a Michael Jackson moonwalk. But the facts don’t lie.
I guess it just means that we broke capitalism and now we’re stuck with this bastardized version of it. We turbocharged it. We never fixed the problems of 2008. We just reshuffled the deck. We just took on more debt and made the problems even bigger.
He tells me his portfolio is bulletproof. This makes me laugh.
the British Parliament does not usually meet on Saturdays
fulfill their role as lenders: they pay you to borrow your deposits and then lend at higher rates further out the curve.
A flattening yield curve indicates that the yield spread between longterm and short-term bonds is decreasing. Flat (or even worse, inverted) yield curves mean the economy is slowing and the central banks need to cut rates. They predict the next recession. This is the market voting with its money. The markets drive the shape of the yield curve, saying things are bad, they need to be fixed. Today, the front end of the Treasury curve is flat as a pancake; it has never been flatter. It’s telling us we are heading into a recession.
“I was just in the bathroom with the guy. He didn’t wash his hands. No way I’m shaking hands with him.”
The repo market is the building block of the financial system. Repo is short for repurchase agreements, which are short-term loans. This market should not break. It only breaks in times of incredible stress, as in 2008. When it breaks, we are all fucked because it means the banks can’t fund their own businesses
Repo deals let the big guys, such as mutual funds and sovereign wealth vehicles, make money by briefly lending cash that might otherwise sit idle, and it enables banks and hedge funds to get leverage by loaning out securities they hold in return.
Today is supposed to be Brexit day. It isn’t. The can got kicked again
Just add some ice and a couple of Oompa Loompas
It smells like her neroli and bergamot perfum
They don’t realize that Lifecoach is a beer pong expert.
They begin to talk louder about nonsense.
But Lifecoach is on fire. She makes four of her first six shots and sets the tone.
They up the ante.
China has one of the fastest growing middle-class populations in the world
Governments generally get money to pay those bills in one of three ways. They can impose taxes, they can create more currency, or they can borrow the money. Obviously, most people don’t like taxes. Central banks were created to help deal with the other two options. And central bankers are unique animals. They’re not elected officials and they have the power to create money with virtually no oversight.