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Global trends 2040
“Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate.”
Sherman Kent
Founder of the Office of National Estimates
Sherman Kent
Founder of the Office of National Estimates
156 pages, ebook
Published April 1, 2021
2 people are currently reading
19 people want to read
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
August 31, 2022
It took me a long time to clear this book from my list. I found it ok. Not very interesting actually (despite me loving economical trends) as I thought that it will focus on the various aspects of our lives with a spotlight on The pandemic. But it wasn’t like that. This report is merely a regeneration of the same concepts and extrapolating them to the future. And taking into account the mess we are into with the inability of the world to stand together and tell us when the whole nightmare is going to end, this report comes and complicate matters even further. Anyway below are some of the facts that I liked:
This edition of Global Trends constructs its analysis of the future in several stages.
First, we examine structural forces in demographics, environment, economics, and technology that shape the contours of our future world.
Second, we analyze how these structural forces and other factors—combined with human responses—affect emerging dynamics in societies, states, and the international system.
Third, we envision five plausible scenarios for the distant future in 2040.
The key themes discussed previously appear across these sections.(global challenges, fragmentation, disequilibrium, Contestation, adaptation)
DEMOGRAPHICS AND
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Slowing global population growth and a rising median age will help some devel- oping economies, but rapidly aging and contracting populations will weigh on many developed economies. Decades of progress in education, health, and poverty reduction will be difficult to build on or even sustain. Pressure for migration is likely to increase
EMERGING DYNAMICS
SOCIETAL
Many populations are increasingly pessi- mistic and distrustful as they struggle to deal with disruptive economic, techno- logical, and demographic trends. Newly prominent identities, resurgent established allegiances, and a siloed information en- vironment are exposing fault lines within communities and states, undermining civic nationalism, and increasing volatility. Popu- lations are more informed and have greater ability to express their demands.
SCENARIOS FOR 2040
4 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040
RENAISSANCE OF
DEMOCRACIES
The world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advancements fostered by public-private partnerships in the United States and other democratic societies are transform- ing the global economy, raising incomes, and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe. In contrast, years of increasing societal controls and monitoring in China and Russia have stifled innovation.
To me this is the most interesting point:
STATE
Governments will face mounting pres- sures from the combination of economic constraints; demographic, environmen- tal, and other challenges; and more empowered populations. A growing gap between public demands and what gov- ernments can deliver will raise tensions, increase political volatility, and threaten democracy. The mismatch may also spur new or shifting sources and models of governance
the next levels of development are more difficult and face headwinds from the COVID-19 pandem-
ic, potentially slower global economic growth, aging populations, and the effects of conflict and climate. These factors will challenge gov- ernments seeking to provide the education and infrastructure needed to improve the produc- tivity of their growing urban middle classes in a 21st century economy. As some countries rise to these challenges and others fall short, shifting global demographic trends almost certainly will aggravate disparities in economic opportunity within and between countries during the next two decades as well as create more pressure for and disputes over migration.
The pandemic and corresponding national responses appear to be honing and accelerating several trends that were already underway before the outbreak. COVID-19 brought global health and healthcare issues into sharp relief, exposed and in some cases widened social fissures, underscored vast disparities in healthcare access and infrastructure, and interrupted efforts to combat other diseases. The pandemic also highlighted weaknesses in the international coordina- tion on health crises and the mismatch between existing institutions, funding levels, and future health challenges.
Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years to come and change the way we live, work, and govern domestically and internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question.
The COVID-19 emergency may bring regions together in ways that previous crises have not.
The response to the pandemic has fueled partisanship and polarization in many countries as groups argue over the best way to respond and seek scape- goats to blame for spreading the virus and for slow responses
COVID-19 is slowing and possibly reversing some longstanding trends in human develop- ment, especially the reduction of poverty and disease and closing gender inequality gaps. The longest lasting reversals may be in poverty reduction across Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, followed by losses in gender equal- ity. The resources devoted to fighting COVID-19 and social restrictions could reverse years of progress against malaria, measles, polio, and other infectious diseases by consuming key financial, material, and personnel resources.
So from the above you can see that we have major questions with no answers. God be with us.
This edition of Global Trends constructs its analysis of the future in several stages.
First, we examine structural forces in demographics, environment, economics, and technology that shape the contours of our future world.
Second, we analyze how these structural forces and other factors—combined with human responses—affect emerging dynamics in societies, states, and the international system.
Third, we envision five plausible scenarios for the distant future in 2040.
The key themes discussed previously appear across these sections.(global challenges, fragmentation, disequilibrium, Contestation, adaptation)
DEMOGRAPHICS AND
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT
Slowing global population growth and a rising median age will help some devel- oping economies, but rapidly aging and contracting populations will weigh on many developed economies. Decades of progress in education, health, and poverty reduction will be difficult to build on or even sustain. Pressure for migration is likely to increase
EMERGING DYNAMICS
SOCIETAL
Many populations are increasingly pessi- mistic and distrustful as they struggle to deal with disruptive economic, techno- logical, and demographic trends. Newly prominent identities, resurgent established allegiances, and a siloed information en- vironment are exposing fault lines within communities and states, undermining civic nationalism, and increasing volatility. Popu- lations are more informed and have greater ability to express their demands.
SCENARIOS FOR 2040
4 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040
RENAISSANCE OF
DEMOCRACIES
The world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advancements fostered by public-private partnerships in the United States and other democratic societies are transform- ing the global economy, raising incomes, and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe. In contrast, years of increasing societal controls and monitoring in China and Russia have stifled innovation.
To me this is the most interesting point:
STATE
Governments will face mounting pres- sures from the combination of economic constraints; demographic, environmen- tal, and other challenges; and more empowered populations. A growing gap between public demands and what gov- ernments can deliver will raise tensions, increase political volatility, and threaten democracy. The mismatch may also spur new or shifting sources and models of governance
the next levels of development are more difficult and face headwinds from the COVID-19 pandem-
ic, potentially slower global economic growth, aging populations, and the effects of conflict and climate. These factors will challenge gov- ernments seeking to provide the education and infrastructure needed to improve the produc- tivity of their growing urban middle classes in a 21st century economy. As some countries rise to these challenges and others fall short, shifting global demographic trends almost certainly will aggravate disparities in economic opportunity within and between countries during the next two decades as well as create more pressure for and disputes over migration.
The pandemic and corresponding national responses appear to be honing and accelerating several trends that were already underway before the outbreak. COVID-19 brought global health and healthcare issues into sharp relief, exposed and in some cases widened social fissures, underscored vast disparities in healthcare access and infrastructure, and interrupted efforts to combat other diseases. The pandemic also highlighted weaknesses in the international coordina- tion on health crises and the mismatch between existing institutions, funding levels, and future health challenges.
Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years to come and change the way we live, work, and govern domestically and internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question.
The COVID-19 emergency may bring regions together in ways that previous crises have not.
The response to the pandemic has fueled partisanship and polarization in many countries as groups argue over the best way to respond and seek scape- goats to blame for spreading the virus and for slow responses
COVID-19 is slowing and possibly reversing some longstanding trends in human develop- ment, especially the reduction of poverty and disease and closing gender inequality gaps. The longest lasting reversals may be in poverty reduction across Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, followed by losses in gender equal- ity. The resources devoted to fighting COVID-19 and social restrictions could reverse years of progress against malaria, measles, polio, and other infectious diseases by consuming key financial, material, and personnel resources.
So from the above you can see that we have major questions with no answers. God be with us.
July 3, 2021
It was ok. Seemed pretty accurate. I’m a lot more skeptical that capitalism will survive to 2040 than the authors are, but on the other hand, as a Gen Z kid I’ve faced nothing but disappointment from my government for my entire life, so maybe we’ll just tip over into fascism and be capitalists until the world implodes. The emphasis on the need to continue growing the world’s economies in the 2040 scenarios was irritating, but not unexpected. I’m hoping that we can focus more on de-growth in future
Read
September 30, 2021Good reading for a head of state, but I felt it rather pulled its punches, and didn't spell out many important details. Of the five scenarios at the end, #2 is admittedly most likely, but none of them were anything like a bad case. The whole thing was rather pollyannish, unless maybe they were not reporting bad cases because it was publicly distributed.
February 1, 2025
2+ stars.
The book is obviously biased toward governmental use. Didn't even include USA in the data or projections. I have a big beef with the way many words are sepa-rated between the lines when anyone can see that there's enough space to include it whole.
The book is obviously biased toward governmental use. Didn't even include USA in the data or projections. I have a big beef with the way many words are sepa-rated between the lines when anyone can see that there's enough space to include it whole.
Read
May 11, 2021Recommended.
Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews