Malthusian Catastrophe
"The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world."
Thomas Malthus, "An Essay on the Principle of Population" (1798)
Preamble
I would like to assess the intellectual honesty of this book when I read it.
It is difficult to fathom the horror of a famine in which between 15 and 43 million people might have perished.
It is clear that the ideological goal of collectivisation had some, perhaps a significant or even dominant, role in the famine and the severity of the loss of life.
However, is it credible to suggest that this is the only reason for both?
Even the Wiki article makes the following statement:
"The great Chinese famine was caused by social pressure, economic mismanagement, and radical changes in agriculture."
Elsewhere, Wiki states that, "between 108 BC and 1911 AD, there were no fewer than 1828 famines in China, or one nearly every year in one province or another."
Collectively over four major famines during the nineteenth century (pre-Communism), over 40 million peasants lost their lives.
The scale of human loss is unfathomable.
I don't wish to excuse anything the Chinese Government did.
However, I do want to understand the extent to which natural causes contributed to the disaster and the loss of life.
What would have occurred if any natural famine of these proportions had occurred under a feudal or capitalist regime? What would the loss of life have been?
I read one article that suggested that there are now 800M "peasants" in China (I assume that this means agricultural workers and their families).
What would the fate of these people be, if a famine of similar proportions occurred now?
In January 2013, the Chinese Government stated that the population of China was 1,354,040,000. (This is over four times the population of the USA, which is about 314M.)
How do you logistically guarantee that 800M workers, let alone 1.354BN people, get between one and three meals per day, whether or not there are famine conditions?
How would the world deal with a repetition of this level of famine if it occurred today?
What level of stockpiles of rice and other grains does the world currently have? How long would it take to mobilise them? How long would they last? What would be the impact on other famines that might occur within the foreseeable future?
What is the potential for more and worse famines in the context of global warming? What fertiliser use is necessary to sustain the fertility of farm land, so that it can feed people?
Who can we go to for answers?
I know who we can't go to. When I asked just a few of these questions in a thread on a GR review, the reviewer deleted my posts and unfriended me.
It's not fair to attribute the motives of a reviewer to the author of this book.
However, I would like to see some intellectual honesty in this field of food politics.
Mao-bashing might be all the rage, and he might have deserved to be bashed. However, if it's all about selling books and propping up ideologies (whether Left or Right), I think the world deserves better.
I've put down these notes to remind me of my questions. I don't question the right of a reviewer to delete comments in a GR thread. However, it is an act of censorship and can be used to stifle debate and the free flow of information and opinion.
Towards a Methodology for Determining Historical Causation
Whether 15 or 43 million people died in the Great Famine, many historians and writers wish to allocate blame for the loss of life to Mao and his Government, some of them exclusive blame, as if natural causes made no contribution.
How can the cause be determined? What methodologies are available? Are they arbitrary, biased or opinionated? Are they scientific?
Causation is a concept of both science and philosophy. However, it is also a vital element of the law, particularly the law of negligence.
The Choice of Framework
Before I suggest a methodology, I'd like to suggest a framework within which the methodology might be used.
In order to do so, I'd like to treat the historical inquiry as analogous to a legal or judicial inquiry.
The French judicial system uses an "inquisitorial system", under which the Judge takes an active role in investigating and determining the facts. In a way, this makes the Judge responsible for both the investigation and the judgement.
In contrast, many other judicial systems use an "adversarial system", under which the Judge presides over two or more advocates who might submit different facts or interpretations of the facts to the Judge for determination. It is expected that the advocates might be partial, but it is expected that the Judge's decision will be impartial.
An historian or author writing a book on the Great Famine might purport to be an impartial Judge of the facts. However, as far as a reader is concerned, they are choosing the evidence to submit to us and ultimately asking us to make up our mind or, at the very least, to agree with their decision. To the extent that they might make a decision, then we might be placed in the position of a Court of Appeal.
Either way, I think the typical role of an historian is more an inquisitorial role than that of a Judge presiding over two or more adversary advocates.
I think that the truth with respect to the Great Famine can only be determined by an adversarial process, whereby the competing facts and interpretations can be submitted as persuasively as possible by partial advocates whose credibility is assessed by an impartial judicial process.
The Methodology
The law of negligence has to determine whether a person was legally responsible for the injury or damage suffered by another person.
I say "legally" in order to differentiate from mere "factual" responsibility. Not all factual causation will result in a legal liability.
However, I think that the tests used by the law of negligence are useful tests to determine historical causation, because both are or should be concerned with determining the truth.
The Wrong
To start with, there must be a wrong, the death or injury.
The dispute as to whether there were 15 or 30 or 43 million dead is neither here nor there in the context of causation. We are concerned with the cause, not the number.
The Chinese Government only has itself to blame if its statistics are wrong. Either they were erroneous or deliberately misleading.
The Duty of Care
The second step is to determine whether there was a duty of care.
Having established that there was, the process will then attempt to establish that a breach of that duty of care caused the wrong.
It's possible that there could be a dispute about the nature of the duty of care. However, in this context, it really comes down to the duty of a government to ensure that its people are adequately fed.
Here, the duty might differ between capitalist nations and communist nations.
Arguably, a Capitalist Government has no moral obligation to feed its own people. The people must be fed as a result of their own effort or by social security benefits.
In contrast, a Communist Government is by definition a command economy that assumes responsibility for the welfare of its people.
Personally, I don't think that Mao's Government could escape liability on this ground, although you might disagree.
A Breach of the Duty of Care
This element is concerned with establishing a fault in some way. It is not yet concerned with causation, because that is the next element in the process.
In a way, the questions are: what did the Government do (in which case its actions might have been wrong); and what did it not do (in which case its inaction or failure to act might have been wrong)?
Let's assume that x million tons of rice was required to feed the entire population of China at the time.
If that amount was produced, then it was adequate to avoid death by starvation, unless it was not distributed adequately.
As far as I am aware, most of the deaths are alleged to have been peasants who lived and worked in the areas where the rice was grown.
Therefore, the argument must imply that the rice was improperly removed from the area in which it was grown and improperly distributed somewhere else.
If on the other hand we assume that there was an underproduction (one suggestion is that the Great Famine involved a 20% under-supply), then the question becomes one of how a command economy should deal with an under-supply.
Should everybody get 20% less? Should 20% of the population get nothing and the rest their full quota? Who should make the decision?
You can see that the underproduction creates a new administrative challenge: how to deal with a lesser product. Who misses out?
However, whatever decision is made (whether fair or not), has ceased to be the sole cause of the Great Famine and is now a response to another cause (i.e., the natural cause that reduced the production by 20%).
We now have multiple contributory causes.
With more than one cause, we have now entered the arena of apportionment of blame or assessment of the relative causes.
Causation
If 100% of the required production occurred, any deaths would presumably have been a result of the administrative decisions with respect to distribution.
Natural causes could not have been a substantive cause.
However, if under-production occurred, then we have to assess multiple causes.
It has to be asked how a capitalist economy would have dealt with a similar challenge.
Could a government have temporarily overridden the normal operation of supply and demand factors, and resulted in adequacy for all?
Who would have paid for the operation? Would this operation effectively have constituted an internal aid program? Would the government have temporarily adopted a collectivist facade? Would increased taxes have been necessary? Would there have been adequate existing reserves? How quickly could these funds have been accessed?
If we return to China and assume that it was not an international pariah state, could it have accessed international aid programs? Did the rest of the world know about the Great Famine? Was it requested to give aid? Did it refuse to grant aid? Did such a refusal contribute to the deaths?
One of the colloquial explanations of the cause of the rice shortages was that local authorities committed to supply, say, one million tonnes of rice to the central authorities. In effect, the suggestion is that they were over-promising their capacity to supply. If they had grown two million tonnes, they could have retained one million tonnes. However, if their total production was one million tonnes and they satisfied their obligation to supply this amount, none would have been available for local consumption.
What has really occurred here? If two million tonnes was required as a contribution to the entire economy, then there has been an under-production, presumably as a result of natural causes.
If a below budgeted production in a capitalist economy had occurred in similar circumstances, who would have been blamed? Is blame appropriate? Would everybody have agreed that the underlying cause was a natural cause.
The temptation with respect to a command economy is to assume that every failure is a failure of command.
Therefore, the Government is to blame.
On the other hand, in a capitalist economy, the responsibility for a parallel under-production would not have been attributed to the Government or any other participant in the economy, let alone the "invisible hand" of the market.
I suspect that the reality is that there were multiple causes of the Great Famine.
Responsibility therefore comes down to an assessment of relative contributions within the particular economy (command or otherwise).
However, to be fair, it also has to be asked how another economy (i.e., a capitalist, non-command economy) would have dealt with a parallel problem.
Prevention is Better than Cure
I don't think it is sufficient to address these historical issues on the basis of oral histories that state in the most eloquently crafted and quotable metaphors that Mao grew fat in Beijing, while 43 million peasants died in the countryside.
As with any question of fault in public administration, the purpose is not so much to punish past breaches, but to design systems that avoid future breaches.
To approach the issue with an ideologically-determined bias, to allow a partial Judge to preside over an inquisitorial process, is to hide the truth and risk repetition of a natural disaster or poor administration, whatever the original fault.
The reality is that sensible public policy and administration must occur under any system of government. The principles upon which these decisions are formed must be taught and learned, as far as possible, in a non-ideological manner.
To the extent that all public policy depends on history, it's the role of history to develop an honest methodology of determining causation.
If history fails us, all manner of governments will fail us.