Jeremy Farrar, scientist and doctor, former Director of the Wellcome Trust, and now Chief Scientist at the World Health Organisation, was a beacon of sense, calm and scientific integrity during the COVID pandemic. During the pandemic I often turned to his Twitter feed to find out what was going on, and what should be going on, in the UK and worldwide with respect to governments' response to the pandemic. There was often a large gap between what Farrar said the UK government should be doing, and what the UK government was actually doing, despite the Prime Minister Boris Johnson's mantra that he was "following the science".
This is a well written, clear and thoughtful book by Farrar and his co-author Anjana Ahuja, a science columnist and freelance writer. Farrar was a member of the SAGE committee that advised the UK government on COVID, and gives his insider's view of what was happening in SAGE and in Johnson's government at that time. It's shocking to hear how little attention Johnson and many of his closest associates paid to the scientists' advice, and the consequences of that lack of attention and seriousness. Despite having world-leading scientists to advise it, the UK had the highest death toll from COVID in the whole of Europe. One particularly striking example of the effect of ignoring the scientists was the UK government's delaying the decision to declare a lockdown:
"In June 2020, [epidemiologist] Neil Ferguson told the House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee that locking down one week earlier would have halved the death toll. By the time Neil spoke, around 40,000 people in the UK had lost their lives to coronavirus. That was, on the face of it, an appalling miscalculation: 20,000 lives swapped for an extra week of liberty."
Farrar pulls no punches with respect to his view of Johnson, for example, he reports a conversation in which Johnson's advisor Dominic Cummings said to Johnson that "Look, much of the media is insane, you've got all of these people running around saying there can't be a second wave, lockdowns don't work, and all this bullshit. [...] They were being picked up by pundits and people like Chris Evans [the 'Telegraph' editor] and Bonkers Hitchens [Peter Hitchens]" and Johnson replied "The trouble is Dom, I'm with Bonkers. My heart is with Bonkers, I don't believe in any of this, it's all bullshit. I wish I'd been the Mayor in 'Jaws' and kept the beaches open".
This book illustrates huge importance of efffective communication between scientists and politicians/policy-makers, a topic not just relevant to COVID but also to other important health and scientific issues affecting the world such as climate change, biodiversity, etc.
To me it's terrible to hear that the most powerful person in the UK government, who was being advised by some of the country's top scientists, didn't believe what they were saying and instead relied on scientifically unsound notions such as "taking it on the chin" to inform public health policies that affected millions of people's lives and resulted in 1000s of unnecessary deaths. Farrar makes it clear that the UK, with its excellent scientific advisors and dedicated health workers, need not have lost so many lives during the pandemic, and the fact that it did was due to extremely poor political decision-making and poor coordination between government departments.
Interestingly, Farrar quotes Timothy Gowers, British mathematician and Fields medallist, as saying in March 2020 that it was obvious that the best strategy was to go in hard and early on interventions like lockdowns, because of exponential growth in case numbers. "All it needed, Timothy says, was an understanding of basic mathematics." I found this point very interesting; was the reason that Johnson and other government ministers paid too little attention for too long to SAGE's advice on early lockdowns simply because they didn't understand the basic Maths behind an exponential curve? If so, this would be a strong argument in favour of a stronger emphasis on Maths education in UK schools. I would be interested to know whether scientists fared better in communicating epidemiological concepts to government ministers in countries where there is a stronger emphasis on Maths throughout both primary and secondary education?
Farrar, one of the best-connected and influential scientists in global health in the UK and indeed worldwide, was one of the first people to hear about COVID in late 2019, and his account of those first days and weeks of the pandemic is riveting. His contact list is like a who's-who of the top people working in global health, for example, one of the first things he did was to send a text message to George Gao, head of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. I'd say not many people have George Gao's number! Because Farrar was one of the first to hear about COVID, he also felt a huge weight of responsibility to do the right thing by alerting the right people in a timely manner. His account of those early days when only a handful of people outside China knew about COVID is extremely gripping, as he reveals the huge anxiety and pressure he shouldered and his worries that the virus may have been manufactured by humans (which has now been ruled out) or that he could be in danger by having information that powerful governments may have wished to suppress. There are many quotes from emails and text messages from that worrying time that bring immediacy and a personal touch to his remembrances.
In the later part of the book Farrar and Ahuja focus on the question of how the world can prepare for the next pandemic, which may be from an unexpected virus, bacterium or parasite, and the important question of how to promote equity in preparedness and in response (e.g. vaccine equity, for COVID but also for any new pandemic-causing species). One ethical issue that he doesn't discuss, which I wish he had, is whether, to achieve global health equity, more of the money and effort poured into COVID research, and now being spent on pandemic preparedness, should have been spent (and should spent in future) on other diseases that arguably have bigger impact in the very poorest countries e.g. malaria, HIV, T.B, cholera?