Covid By Numbers: Making Sense of the Pandemic with Data

by David Spiegelhalter, Anthony Masters

How many people have died because of COVID-19? Which countries have been hit hardest by the virus? What are the benefits and harms of different vaccines? How does COVID-19 compare to the Spanish flu? How have the lockdown measures affected the economy, mental health and crime? This year we have been bombarded by statistics - seven day rolling averages, rates of infection, excess deaths. Never have numbers been more central to our national conversation, and never has it been more important that we think about them clearly. In the media and in their Observer column, Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter and RSS Statistical Ambassador Anthony Masters have interpreted these statistics, offering a vital public service by giving us the tools we need to make sense of the virus for ourselves and holding the government to account. In Covid by Numbers , they crunch the data on a year like no other, exposing the leading misconceptions about the virus and the vaccine, and answering our essential questions. This timely, concise and approachable book offers a rare depth of insight into one of the greatest upheavals in history, and a trustworthy guide to these most uncertain of times.

Genres: Science, Nonfiction, Medicine, Mathematics, Society, Health, Medical

300 pages, Hardcover

Published October 7, 2021

About the author

Sir David Spiegelhalter has been Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge since October 2007. His background is in medical statistics, with an emphasis on Bayesian methods: his MRC team developed the BUGS software which has become the primary platform for applying modern Bayesian analysis using simulation technology. He has worked on clinical trials and drug safety and consulted and taught in a number of pharmaceutical companies, and also collaborates on developing methods for health technology assessment applicable to organisations such as NICE. His interest in performance monitoring led to his being asked to lead the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry, and he also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry.

Reviews

[Michael Whitehouse · Rating 5 out of 5]

David you dropped this 👑👉👈

[Sascha Griffiths · Rating 3 out of 5]

I think the authors put it quite well when they say that the general public - to which I'd count myself in respect to medical topics, virology and epidemiology - has never been as bombarded with statistics and graphs than during the current crisis. It's a nice book to read - one short chapter a day. The book was clearly written to be read now, while the Covid-19 pandemic is still ongoing and it does that well. However, it shows that it was written toward a deadline. It's also very, very focused on the UK. That would be fine as a case study but the authors really give the impression the book was meant only for UK readers.

[Andy · Rating 3 out of 5]

Whatever. Many questions answered with “we don’t really know.” Honest about GIGO nature of many models. This gives some insights into how statisticians tried to muddle through the COVID disaster but I don’t feel that it helped me “make sense of the pandemic.”

[Ben · Rating 4 out of 5]

Ground Zero

Looking for a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19? Look no further than this book!
This insightful book delves into the origin and impact of COVID-19, providing readers with a thorough understanding of the virus and its far-reaching effects.

Spiegelhalter's expert use of data and statistics is impressive, and the way he presents the information is both accessible and engaging. While I don't agree with every aspect of the book, there is no denying that it provides a valuable perspective on the pandemic.

Whether you're a scientist, healthcare worker, or simply interested in learning more about COVID-19, this book is a must-read.
It offers a unique and data-driven insight into the pandemic that is both informative and thought-provoking.

Overall, Covid By Numbers is an interesting and thought-provoking book that offers valuable insights into the pandemic. While some may disagree with some of its findings, it is nonetheless an important addition to the conversation surrounding COVID-19.

Highly recommended for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of this global crisis.

4.3/5

[Stephen Brown · Rating 5 out of 5]

Although it only goes up to May 2021 - when the pandemic still had (and, at the moment of writing this review, still has!) some way to go, this is the single book that you need in order to understand the basic facts and data of the pandemic in the UK. If you’re ever in a discussion about the pandemic, have this book handy to be able to quote the authoritative data. A quite magisterial book.

[Bjorn Bakker · Rating 4 out of 5]

Concise overview of the pandemic in the UK from the statistical point of view. Essential reading for any journalist and good citizen.

[Sam Still Reading · Rating 4 out of 5]

In all the COVID-19 books that appear on bookshelves, Covid by Numbers has to be one of the most unique. It’s about the statistics behind the COVID-19 numbers – not just rates of infection, hospitalisation and mortality but how numbers and modelling were used to determine lockdowns and other rules. It also looks at the unexpected effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the lowering of influenza and car accidents in young people.

If you’re not a statistician, don’t worry. Spiegelhalter and Masters explain the statistical methods very succinctly and clearly. (Honestly, I have never seen logarithmic scales in graphs explained in such a simple way that makes sense). The emphasis is on what the statistics mean and how they were used to make decisions regarding masks, lockdowns and who to vaccinate first. If you understand words, the graphs and tables are explained clearly. If you prefer pictures, the graphs and tables are there too. The content is heavily focused on the UK (Australia doesn’t get a mention) although there is some comparison with EU countries and with the US. To me, this didn’t matter but it might if you’re looking for a more global summary. But by keeping the statistics close to home, the authors are able to provide links to what was happening at the time on the ground as one of those affected.

Of course any COVID-19 book is going to be dated as soon as ink is put to paper. Covid by Numbers covers 2020 and up to May 2021, so it’s pre-Omicron and Delta and pre-oral treatments for COVID-19. Again, this didn’t really matter to me because the authors went into sub-topics of COVID-19 I’ve always wondered about. What is the effect on the economy (spoiler: they didn’t predict rapid inflation)? What are some of the effects of the lockdown? Why did deaths go down below ‘normal’ levels at times? I found this all fascinating, as these questions hadn’t really been covered for me before. What this book also shows is how far we’ve come in the nearly three years since COVID-19 was first reported. We have vaccines and treatments and have moved on from lockdowns. People have seen more statistics than they did in the preceding decade and the SIR model of infection is well known, as are the meaning of reproduction numbers.

This is a good read for looking at the COVID-19 pandemic from a different point of view. I’d love to see an updated version in years to come.

http://samstillreading.wordpress.com

[Ietrio · Rating 1 out of 5]

The base concept used here is ”garbage in, garbage out”. When a person who died in a motorcycle accident is counted a Covid death if the body has tested positive, the data is pretty much useless. So much goes for the vaccines when they all used randomly, and an unknown number of individuals have been vaccinated with a combination of brands.

The key here is the trade in which the authors work. They are governmental employees. And they are handsomely paid to not go work at McDonald's. So, in a way, asking them for information is pretty much the same as asking the drug dealer if his boss is a criminal. If they are in the room with the boss, they will say the boss is a decent person. If they are in police custody they will testify they were blackmailed to deal drugs.

And while I stop paying the repair person once the car is fixed, with these two the taxpayers are going to continue paying them a handsome pension and health care and some expenses for the rest of their biological life. So why bother with the facts that might upset the hand that feeds them?

[MB Klt · Rating 5 out of 5]

This is an excellent book that gives an overview of many of the main metrics of the COVID-19 pandemic, and, crucially, the methods behind often reported numbers such as case or death numbers, excess deaths, vaccine efficacy etc. Instead of dumping raw numbers on the reader (which can be found elsewhere) the book highlights how these numbers are derived and what uncertainties they include. The book also looks at collateral effects of the pandemic and public health interventions, in terms of physical and mental health or behavioral and economic changes. The authors also address several misconceptions and half-truths about the pandemic in a clear and very sober way. At the end of the book there is a very useful glossary of statistical terms used. Highly recommended.

[Wing · Rating 5 out of 5]

To live with COVID safely, one must understand it objectively. Drawing primarily from the UK experience, Professor Spiegelhalter and Dr Masters present data after data, tables after tables, and graphs after graphs in a most perspicuous manner. All major aspects of COVID are covered. The book does not merely inform but also serves secondarily as an antidote to mis- and disinformation. Further, through the special case of COVID, many statistical principles are explicated. Written in May 2021, when the Delta Variant just appeared, and Omicron was still in the future, the book does not appear dated at all. Things evolved, but the underlying mathematical structure is eternal. Five stars.

[Jhonattan Maldonado · Rating 3 out of 5]

The data is crucial to understand the amount of lives and risk that COVID caused around the world. Most of the data comes from UK data bases. Here is important to highlight the importance of having such data available, record it, store it and share it. However, if you want to understand the worldwide impact of COVID this book is only an introduction to the statistics jargon and the type of models and analysis used throughout the pandemic. Still it has some very explanatory terms and data and confirms a lot of facts that people speak around tables and conversations but they were not sure if that was entirely true.

[Kirsty Darbyshire · Rating 4 out of 5]

I've seen the authors pop up throughout the Covid pandemic and found their information useful. And a lot of this book was indeed full of things I had already read about but this was a wider angle view than the usual things you find in news reports and as such it made interesting reading. My only criticism would be that some of it already seemed a bit out of date - I think the text was from May 2021 - but it's of the moment and I think that there will be many more somewhat-similar attempts to sum things up in the years to come and I'll probably be here to lap them up.

[Mizo · Rating 3 out of 5]

Informative

It is a brief read and will not take you more than a week even at a casual pace. With data and graphs followed by a brief(too brief?) explanation, this book has helped me understand many of the things in the news about Covid.
I observed that the writer remained politically correct and avoided discussing certain topics for which the data should be available. For example natural immunity vs vaccine immunity.
I wait for that in the next book. I hope the wait won't be too long.

[Davidg · Rating 4 out of 5]

A wonderful examination of the facts and figures behind the Covid pandemic. This was written in the middle of the outbreak, in around May 2021. It gives, very clearly and dispassionately, the actual numbers and the reasoning behind them.

It would be interesting to see if they could come back and re-examine the figures after some time has passed and more information is available. But this is all there is and it is very good.

[Popup-ch · Rating 3 out of 5]

Written in summer 2021, this short book tries to summarize what was known at the time about the spread of the virus, effect of countermeasures, efficiency of vaccines etc.

It would be interesting to read an updated version in a couple of years, once we have better data and a clearer view of the longer-term effects.

[Will · Rating 3 out of 5]

This book seeks to answer key questions about the COVID-19 pandemic, answering questions about mortality rates, vaccine efficacy/effectiveness, illness lengths, and the effectiveness of measures (lockdowns, etc.), using quantitative date from the UK.

In short, its extraordinarily difficult to disentangle these questions, an more time will be needed to truly answer them.

[Jessada Karnjana · Rating 4 out of 5]

อันที่จริงข้อมูลรายงานจำนวนคนตายจาก COVID ที่ดูเหมือนตรงไปตรงมา เรียบง่าย ก็ไม่ง่ายอย่างที่เห็น เพราะจะนับยังไงว่าคนไหนตายเพราะ COVID (คนติดเชื้อแล้วโดนรถชนตายนับมั้ย คนติดเชื้อแล้วมีโรคแทรกซ้อนหลายอย่าง นับยังไงว่าใครเป็นตัวการหลัก เป็นต้น) หนังสือช่วยให้เข้าใจแง่มุมที่หลากหลายจากตัวเลขที่เห็นสำหรับกรณี COVID

[Drew Pyke · Rating 3 out of 5]

Was quick to get through, but very efficiently written (most cases letting the graphs and data speak for themselves).

Would be amazing to get a second version to include what happened when Omicron came along (this only goes up to April 2021).

[Daniel Wright · Rating 3 out of 5]

An interesting examination of the plague year that had changed so much. Plenty of numbers and graphs to chew over with some being more interesting than others. Overall, a decent look at COVID and its effects but still quite a dry statistics book at heart.

[Ciao · Rating 3 out of 5]

Super interessant maar ook wel bizar hoe dit nu alweer outdated is

[Josh Marks · Rating 4 out of 5]

Good but no painting

[Simon · Rating 4 out of 5]

A really clear & concise look at the data on all aspects of the Covid Pandemic.

[Olly Colluphid · Rating 5 out of 5]

An excellent brief overview of the data of the pandemic in the UK. I would have liked more depth on occasion, but the book was aiming at conciseness.

[Ken Sampson · Rating 4 out of 5]

[1 Nov 2021] An interesting, informative book providng a great deal of statistic data about the pandemic and well presented. A good read.

[Cían · Rating 4 out of 5]

Great little book
Informative
Bite sized
Well researched and referenced
Very coherent for a not so numerically literate audience
Reflective

[Alan Larman · Rating 4 out of 5]

It was scary and informative and at the same time a little reassuring that things were not as grim as they seemed at the time.