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303 pages, Kindle Edition
First published April 6, 2010
The image of Vietnam we foreigners seek is a close-cropped study in 'otherness'. Zoom out from the girl in the conical hat and the newly erected pylon intrudes on the view. Turn away from the buffalo boy and the scene is 'spoiled' by his parents' new concrete house. Vietnamese development planners don't share the western tourist aesthetic. Call it socialist, call it proletarian or just call it ugly; they'd rather see an electricity substation than a pre-industrial rural landscape. The people want progress and prosperity. The fantasy country we seek is the one they want to leave behind.
Vietnam has not developed in the way it has – balancing rocketing economic growth with one of the most impressive reductions in poverty anywhere, ever – by completely liberalising the economy. Yes, restrictions on private enterprise have been lifted, markets have been allowed to flourish and foreign investment has been encouraged – but Vietnam's success is far from being a triumph of World Bank orthodoxy. Some might snigger at the official description of a ‘socialist-oriented market economy’ but it's not an empty slogan.
More important to the Communist Party than economic dogma is self-preservation. Everything else: growth, poverty reduction, regional equality, media freedom, environmental protection – everything – is subordinate to that basic instinct. To survive, the Party knows it has to match a simple, but terrifying, figure: one million jobs a year. Every year Vietnam's schools produce a million new peasants and proletarians, the product of a huge postwar baby boom which is showing little sign of slowing down despite an intense ‘two-child’ policy. Growth is vital, but not at the expense of creating too much inequality. So is reducing poverty, but not at the expense of impeding growth too much.
As the economy has industrialised, the share of agriculture in GDP has halved – from 40 per cent in the mid-1980s to about 20 per cent now. But the number of people working as farmers has fallen much more slowly – from three-quarters of the population in the 1980s to about half now.
It's a common assumption among many observers of Vietnam that the coming of capitalism will create a new force in society, a new middle class with sources of income independent of the Communist Party and able to stand up and defend itself. This may come in time, but it seems a long way off. For the moment getting better off requires loyalty to the Party. The well connected are exploiting their connections to become rich, and the rich are exploiting their money to buy protection from the state. The result is widening inequality between rich and poor.